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Mumbai: Pakistan’s moment of opportunity

Shaun Gregory, 3 - 12 - 2008

The assault on India’s commercial hub is a moment for the most powerful sectors of the Pakistani state to break with the agents of jihadi violence, says Shaun Gregory.


The government and leading institutions of Pakistan have been placed in a difficult position by the Mumbai events. The statement by a United States official that the Pakistan-based terrorist organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Pure) was most likely responsible for the armed operation of 26-29 November 2008 would appear to confirm India's early assertions that the attacks were planned and launched from Pakistan. But even if Indian Islamist ("homegrown") terrorists with intimate knowledge of the city contributed to the attacks, this would not cease the pressure on Islamabad.

Shaun Gregory is professor in the department of peace studies at the University of Bradford, northern England, and head of the Pakistan Security Research Unit there. He is the author of Pakistan: Securing the Insecure State (Routledge, 2008)

"Pakistan on edge" (24 September 2006)

"Pakistan: farewell to democracy" 29 October 2007)

"Musharraf: the fateful moment"(16 November 2007)

"Pakistan's political turmoil: Musharraf and beyond" (27 August 2008)

"The Pakistan army and the Afghanistan war"(25 November 200
The circumstantial evidence is that the Pakistan army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) have for decades supported terrorist groups and engineered acts of terror as an instrument of state policy, in relation both to their regional objectives and to their internal problems (such as the struggle with Shi'a groups supported by Iran). The army and the ISI created or co-opted a number of terrorist organisations in the early 1990s to prosecute the struggle for Kashmir, and built an infrastructure of camps mainly in "Azad" ("free") Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) to support this initiative. Beyond that the Pakistan army and ISI supported terrorist groups inside India, in states around India, in the south Caucusus, and as far afield as Algeria.

Two of the groups with the closest relationship with the Pakistan army and ISI through the 1990s and into the early 2000s were Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (Army of Mohammed / JeM). Both of these have been responsible for high-profile and daring attacks on India - including the attack on the Indian parliament in Delhi in December 2001 which bears striking similarities to the Mumbai attacks. The LeT and JeM were trained in insurgency and urban warfare by the Pakistan army and ISI, and this may in part explain the tenacity and skill with which the Mumbai attackers fought.

The tracks of influence

In reacting to the Mumbai attacks the Pakistan government has mounted two defences: the first that after the December 2001 attacks on the Indian parliament, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed were banned by then-president Pervez Musharraf, and linkages between these two groups and the Pakistan army and ISI were severed; the second that there are no links between the Mumbai attackers and any element of the Pakistan state. While the evidence is not yet clear, and the full story of the attacks may never be publicly known, it is already evident that both strands of Pakistan's defence are beginning to unravel.

Pervez Musharraf did indeed publicly ban the LeT and JeM in January 2002. But the LeT was allowed to continue to operate under the wing of its political arm, the Markaz Dawat-ul Irshad (MDI)], renamed as the Jamat-ud Dawa (JuD). The MDI/JuD is based in Muridke, outside Lahore, from where it operates a network of offices across Pakistan involved in publishing, fundraising, and developing its political objectives. The MDI/JuD also runs more than 200 secondary schools and at least eleven madrasas through which the LeT is assured of a steady flow of recruits. It is also understood to have a presence in the United States, Britain, Australia, Iraq and Spain.

It is clear now that the LeT training camps in Azad Jammu & Kashmir were not closed down after 2002, though some camps were moved to the Sindh and Balochistan. It is known that at least one of the perpetrators of the coordinated bombings in London on 7 July 2008 passed through LeT camps in AJK shortly before the attacks. There are also deep links between the LeT and al-Qaida that can be traced to the late 1980s.

Also in openDemocracy on the Mumbai atrocity:

Kanishk Tharoor, "What to make of the Mumbai attacks" (27 November 2008)

Saskia Sassen, "Cities and new wars: after Mumbai" (29 November 2008)

Paul Rogers, "The lessons of Mumbai" (1 December 2008)

Meenakshi Ganguly, "After Mumbai: India's democratic test" (2 December 2008)

 

The earthquake on October 2005, centred in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, profoundly affected the MDI/JuD's fortunes. LeT cadres - fearing media scrutiny and international intelligence attention - were redeployed: some to Bangladesh, and some to Pakistan's northern areas of Balti and Gilgit. Some too found their way to Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province/FATA tribal areas, where they consolidated links to the Taliban and to al-Qaida. The JuD - like Hamas to which it is linked through the ideologue Abdullah Azzam (the Palestinian jihadi who was assassinated in 1989) - positioned itself as a source of welfare to those affected by the earthquake and appears to have siphoned off aid revenues(both Pakistan-raised and international) to help the earthquake victims.

The MDI/JuD leader Hafiz Muhammed Saeed is often arrested - and just as quickly released - in the wake of LeT violence. He is a regular speaker at events in Pakistan, mixes with some members of the army, government and parliamentary representatives, and gives interviews to the media. The Sunni MDI/JuD is also understood to receive support from Saudi Arabia. All the indicators are that under this cover the LeT is as powerful as at any point in its history and its connections with to the Pakistani army and ISI are as strong as ever.

A state against the wall

This evidence does not of itself convict the Pakistani state of direct involvement in the Mumbai attacks. To establish that fact operational links would need to be proven between the attackers and the Pakistani state. Moreover by "state" it would be important to establish whether only the Pakistan army/ISI was implicated or whether the involvement also extended to the civilian leadership, which does not control the Pakistan army/ISI. This distinction raises the possibility that the attacks were supported by the army/ISI to undermine President Asif Ali Zardari and sour warming Indian-Pakistan relations.

The potential problem for Pakistan is that any thread between the Mumbai attackers and Pakistan army/ISI is unlikely to remain secret. The Mumbai attacker who was taken prisoner, and other suspected terrorists who may yet be detained, could provide clues here. There is also an abundance both of material evidence (such as the unused weaponry and communications equipment carried by the terrorists) and intelligence evidence (from United States electronic monitoring, for example). The US's unusual decision to publicly implicate Pakistan's ISI in the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul in July 2008 makes clear two things: Washington knows that Pakistan has continued to use terrorism as an instrument of state policy under Musharraf's successor as army chief-of-staff, General Afshaq Kiyani; and it is no longer keeping silent about such knowledge in deference to Pakistan's importance in the "war on terror".

The Pakistan army and ISI cannot therefore anticipate avoiding responsibility for the Mumbai attacks if they had a hand in it. Any defence of blaming "rogue" elements within the ISI and Pakistan army will not serve to deflect the anger of India, the United States and the international community - not least because Musharraf made it clear in 2006 that the ISI was a disciplined force doing what the army told it do.

A decisive moment

The Pakistan state - by which is meant here primarily the army and the ISI - thus faces a moment of crisis. But this is also a moment of opportunity. Pakistan has been asked to cooperate fully with India and the United States in the investigation of the Mumbai attacks, and to hand over named individuals - including the JuD/LeT leader, and the Karachi-based gangster Dawood Ibrahim, an Indian national implicated in many terrorist attacks within India.

If Pakistan complies with these requests - whether or not it is complicit, and in a way consistent with the country's own laws and constraints - it would send the strongest possible signal to the international community of Pakistan's rejection of its use of terrorism in the past and its determination to end state support for terrorism in the future. Moreover, it would demonstrate to the world that the Pakistan army and ISI are now willing to subordinate themselves more fully to the democratically elected civilian leadership of Pakistan - which clearly wants to normalise relations with India - and to open a new chapter in civil-military relations.

Pakistan's failure to meet these requests, and obfuscation in the investigation of the Mumbai attacks, will only strengthen the views of Pakistan's critics and will have a negative impact on United States policy towards Pakistan. The fires of Mumbai provide Pakistan with a clear moment to begin to cleanse itself of its self-destructive embrace of terrorists and terrorism. The friends of Pakistan around the world will be hoping that President Zardari, prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, and above all General Kiyani, will seize this opportunity.

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read on

Pakistan Security Research Unit

Ayesha Siddiqa, Military Inc: Inside Pakistan's Military Economy (Pluto Press, 2007)

Shaun Gregory, Pakistan: Securing the Insecure State (Routledge, 2008)

 
This article is published by Shaun Gregory, and openDemocracy.net under a Creative Commons licence. You may republish it without needing further permission, with attribution for non-commercial purposes following these guidelines. These rules apply to one-off or infrequent use. For all re-print, syndication and educational use please see read our republishing guidelines or contact us. Some articles on this site are published under different terms. No images on the site or in articles may be re-used without permission unless specifically licensed under Creative Commons.
NewsCredit This article adheres to the openDemocracy.net principles.

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zindadilbaaz (not verified) said:



Wed, 2008-12-17 14:27

US says and we have to believe. US intellengence said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and the world had to follow suit. US says Pakistan is involved and the whole world believes it.
The above author writes not from that subcontinent writes about it and what a way to go.
This person does not understand India as India is dverse and the people are many.
The BJP, The underworld and all the RSS sympathizers got together and killed the 3 police officers. Else many more influential people would have been arrested.

Ijaz (not verified) said:



Mon, 2008-12-15 09:09

Ajmal Amir Kasab the lone alleged terrorist caught alive from Mumbai was kidnapped by RAW (Indian Intelligence) and Napalese Intelligence in a joint venture in 2006 from Nepal. An NGO ' Voice of human and prisoner rights' filled a case in a nepalese court. Right now there is a Writ petetion pending in Nepalese Supreme Court to produce Kasab before the court. The writ was filled in Feb 2008. Despite several notices by the SC no action has been taken. A clear proof that Kasab has been in RAW's cusduty since 2006.

Arun Bhajari (not verified) said:



Sun, 2008-12-07 04:55

Its interesting that the mainstream media has ignored the most important facts and evidence. Hemant Karkare of the Indian Anti Terror Squad (ATS) had arrested Hindu terrorists (military officers) for the 29 Sept. 08 Malegaon terror attacts in which the Hindu terrorists had tried to blame the Muslims. During the Mumbai 26 Nov. 08 terrorist attacts, Hemant and two other senior officers were murdered in the first few hours of the Mumbai attack. Anyone doing independent research and not just blindly believe the mainstream media, it will be evident that the Mumbai terror was carried out by the Hindu terrorists with help from the Mosad.

It is not the first time the Indian government has blamed Pakistan, only to find later that Pakistan had nothing to do with the violence it was being accused of. Four times previously the Indian government falsely accused Lashkare Taiba directly as the organization sponsoring violent incidents in India, and Pakistan indirectly for harbouring the militant group, although Pakistan officially banned the outfit in 2002.

In each of the incidents, namely, the Chattisinghpura massacre, the attack on the Indian Parliament on 13 December 2001, the Malagaon blasts and the Samjhota Express incident, investigations were either refused or revealed that neither Lashkare Taiba nor Pakistan but groups from within India were responsible. In the Chattisinghpura incident, for example, on 20 March 2000, one day before President Bill Clinton was due to arrive in India, 35 Sikhs were killed in the village of Chattisinghpura. It was said that about 15 uniformed men belonging to Lashkare Taiba and trained in Pakistan were responsible. Five days later, five men were killed by paramilitary forces in a village called Pathribal, claiming that the "foreign militants" responsible for the Sikh massacre had been found and duly eliminated. When local village people protested, investigations began. When the final results of the investigation were made public, it was found that local police was responsible for the massacre of the Sikhs.

Ijaz (not verified) said:



Sat, 2008-12-06 11:22

Terrorism.

is an international problem, look at the situation in Iraq.
there was not a shrewd of any kind of terrorism in Iraq before the tragic incident of 9/11. Now its a hub of Al-Q.
Is that also Pakistan's fault. and eventually when Nato troops move out of Iraq , it will fall directly into the hands of Al-Q.by starting this war on terror US and allies have brought themselves into how they say it, " catch 22" now any option they choose will result in more distruction.
On top of it for personal interests some of the players have turned this into a war against Muslims, there are 1.5 billion muslims, they have given orgs like Al-Q a recruting ground so vast, just by silly mistakes US has made almost a super power out of Al-Q.
It is not in interest of Pakistan or any state to see orgs like Al-Q become so powerful because all this region could be destabalized, and the writ of all states including India will finish.
So it is time to stop playing silly games for petty advantages and take this terror business seriously or everyone living on this Planet will end up paying a heavy price.

Ijaz (not verified) said:



Fri, 2008-12-05 10:12

ISI - (Inter Services Intelligence)
is a department of Pak Army, Where officers are deputed for a certain period of time and then sent back to their respective units. It is just not possible that ISI can have its own different agenda from rest of the Army. Majority of serving officers in ISI are constantly rotated and they are all under observation.
Pak Army is a diciplined institution with over 500,000 regular troops, with few dozen nukes, missiles, F-16's and whatnot. probably the sixth largest army in the world, How can anyone believe even for a second that an institution like Pak Army cannot control its own Intelligence outfit.
ISI was the one agency in the world which won the Afghan Russian war. I believe if this war on terror had been left to ISI results might have been different. Like they were in Afghan russian war. By bringing 43 different agencies of the world into this war in Afghanistan, a lot of conflict of interests have devoloped hence all this mess. Sometimes i wonder why it is so difficult to understand.
Pakistan has been asking from last seven years to fence the Pak Afghan border and close it, But no one wants to do that, i wonder why not.
Pakistan has been suggesting to atleast mine some of the areas of Pak Afghan border. Still no.
Pakistan has over 1100 check posts on Pak Afghan border, Nato has 120 odd why.
Someone in Afghan side is just not interested in closing the route.
Millitants in Pak have more sopisticated weapons than Pak Army, where are they getting these weapons from.Afghanistan where else.

GitanjaliB said:



Fri, 2008-12-05 09:39

The article was extremely informative. Finally a piece that analyzes the workings and history of the LeT - This is exactly where our analysis must lie.

Prof. Gregory I intend to read many more of your previous as well as future articles. Hope there are some more that focus on the Mumbai attacks and subsequent consequences and strategies.

Would appreciate some more information on the LeT.

aeionline_1 said:



Thu, 2008-12-04 19:33

Money is certainly not everthing but it is something and can buy conscience of those who sell.

Pakistan is USA's client state since she was made to join CETO/SENTO and India could have been fully dragged within the fold recently through nuclear treaty!

Thus governments of both India and Pakistan work for USA's great game of gaining full control of Euroasia in order to get full control over the world's maximum resources.

One question, why CNN cut short interview of Deepak Chopra while he was saying:

" Chopra: Ultimately the message is always toward Washington because it's also the perception that Washington, in their way, directly or indirectly funds both sides of the war on terror. They fund our side, then our petrol dollars going to Saudi Arabia through Pakistan and ultimately these terrorist groups, which are very organized. You know Jonathan, it takes a lot of money to do this. It takes a lot of organization to do this. Where's the money coming from, you know? The money is coming from the vested interests. I'm not talking about conspiracy theories, but what happens is, our policies, our foreign policies, actually perpetuate this problem. Because, you know, 25% of the world's population is Muslim and they're the fastest growing segment of the population of the world. The more we alienate the Muslim population, the more the moderates are likely to become extremists.

CNN: I hope you're - you've - (CNN edits out the rest and inserts him concluding the interview saying "Indian physician and philosopher Deepak Chopra.")

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michelle-haimoff/deepak-chopra-on-mumbai-t_b_146837.html

Does not it mean, the event is last ditch effort of USA's neocon leadership to keep the confilcts alive in South Asia in order to remain effective towards "Eurosia"?

Another reason could be cutting Zardari et al down to size because changing of their lobbyist in Washington from "BKSH" to the one from 'Democrat' camp?

khan (not verified) said:



Thu, 2008-12-04 14:58

I agree with shaun Gregory's on most of the points which he highlights and his analysis could also have looked at Hindu fundementalism and india's own security problems aswell.

there are three points which i like to share with you.

Firstly the issue of Indian Parliament attacks of 2002 were indian engineered. the reason being Pakistan was in difficult a position even to consider attacks on india because it was under huge pressure from USA and war on terror. To exert more pressure on Pakistan India decided to take this opportunity and blame these attacks on Pakistan.

Seondly why I strongly beleive ISI was involved in these attacks were mostly to do with what is happening in Pakistan's western border. To relieve itself from USA attacks agency had to do something. To attack india where it hurts and to have international community's attention India had to do something: meaning Indian army on Pakistan's eastern border = transfer Pakistan's army from west to east. What ISI was hoping to do was let Taliban take care of USA on its western border.

It is for example using your enemy for your advantage. If you analyse American - Pakistan's relationship on issue of taliban it is on boiling point. Pakistan airforce wants orders from goverment to shoot down american drones while the goverment is resisting and says it does not have the cabilities to shoot these planes.

Thirdly I agree with Zindadil about Indian goverment killing one of its commandos. Politics comes into play.

Please do comment I am open to suggestions and ideas and different arguments.

zindadil said:



Thu, 2008-12-04 03:43

this is internal, the hindu fascist,

Prgaya case mystrey 

Three Police officers killed for investigating the Pragya case.

Indian army personnel caught collaborating with Pragya(BJP, RSS, Bajrang Dal, Sangh Parivar)

Underworld was tired of the above police officers being very just,
shoot at sight and these police officers did not take prisoners. Hence
a collaboration.

These elements got together and created a scene just to get rid of
the three police officers. (the families of the slain police officers
refuse to take the charity money from Modi)

Why Mumbai? Why not Kashmir? Why Not Gujarat?

Because Pragya was being tried in Mumbai a State run by congress.
Because Maharashtra is a Congress state and elections due in the near
future, BJP wants to be a strong contender. And BJP needs money from
underworld to spend on elections. Underword wants Mumbai to run it's
dirty business without any obstacles.Obstacles were the three fine
Police Officials.

Understand this. The LET wants Kashmir, attacks there would be
understanding. Attacks in Gujarat by LET, may be. No link there, but
then again maybe because Muslims were macassered by Modi. But it is
highly unlikely. Mumbai too far for LET and no adwantage at all. 

This has to be them i.e. the BJP and Underworld.

Jesper Karlsson said:



Thu, 2008-12-04 00:21

Very interesting analysis. I sincerely hope for the peoples of Pakistan and its neighbours that a diplomatic and cooperative solution is sought. Judging from what You are writng as well as from Obama's hawkish statements on Pakistan during the election campaign and the congressional investigation into weapons of mass destruction presented today the Pakistan state is indeed pushed against the wall.

 

 

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