About Mary Kaldor

Mary Kaldor is Professor of Global Governance at the London School of Economics and Political Science and author of ‘New and Old wars: Organised Violence in a Global Era’ 3rd edition, 2012

Articles by Mary Kaldor

This week's editor

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Adam Ramsay is co-editor of OurKingdom.

What to do in Syria?

The war in Syria is illegal. If a criminal had poisoned someone, our concern would be how to protect the public from future poisonings and how to arrest the criminal and bring him (or her) before a court of law. And civil society needs to be directly involved in the talks.

Bordering on a new World War 1

What is missing is any serious discussion about the plight of the Syrian people. If it turns out that a red line has been crossed, then any intervention will be a geo-political intervention against the Assad regime. The likely response is to arm the rebels rather than to intervene to protect ordinary people.

The new war in Europe?

The European Union was founded in reaction to what I call ‘old war’ – the wars of the twentieth century. Even though material interests ought logically to lead to increased political cooperation, contemporary European politics, or the absence of politics, suggest instead the possibility of what I call a ‘new war’.

Subterranean Politics in Europe: an introduction

In a study of Europe’s “subterranean politics,” Mary Kaldor’s team at the London School of Economics and Political Science, working with partners across Europe, has examined both new political parties and public protests, finding that all of these phenomena share not only opposition to austerity, but also extensive frustration with politics as currently practised. This week, the team reported on their findings.

Global Civil Society 2012: ten years of ‘politics from below’

The question we ask is whether today’s generation of protestors represent the harbingers of a new emancipatory agenda, or whether the opposite is the case, that social fragmentation and polarisation from above as well as from below could usher in an even more dangerous and divided world. Or both?

What to do about Syria's new war?

The key to any intervention is to combine upholding human rights inside Syria with de-escalation of the broader regional conflict. Far from being contradictory, these two goals – human rights and peace – reinforce each other.

‘Mr former Havel': the kind of politician we need

Warm memories pay tribute to Vaclav Havel who died today

Can Intervention Work? by Rory Stewart and Gerald Knaus: book review

It is possible to walk the tightrope between the horrors of over-intervention and non-intervention. Mary Kaldor agrees, while insisting on distinguishing between genuine humanitarian interventions and the War on Terror.

The new road to Europe: ways out of the hydra-headed crisis

The European Union is uniquely placed to solve the problems that have been caused by the tensions and templates of national political solutions in a globalised economy. There exists a positive European reinvention of the Union for all those that are rightly indignant

Mary Kaldor


To save the euro and prevent the disintegration of the European Union, by 2013 European leaders have established a fiscal mechanism (European level taxes, borrowing and spending) which then pushes them to democratise Europe and hold elections for a President of both the Council and Commission. The new (woman) president acquires human security capabilities that have transformed the ability of the UN to stop wars and protect civilians so as to create space for democratic politics..

 

Finnish 2-euro coin commemorative of 100 years of universal suffrage, 2006, wikicommons/European Central Bank (ECB)

Libya: war or humanitarian intervention?

In the end the prospects for democracy depend on whether the rebels can mobilise support politically throughout Libya. The problem with the military approach is that it entrenches division. Our preoccupation with classic military means is undermining our capacity to address growing insecurity.

Afghanistan dreads the spring

Afghans suffer at the hands of everyone - the Taliban, the Afghan security forces, the international forces, and the warlords or drug barons - sometimes in combination. In language that is reminiscent of the way young people are talking in other parts of the Middle East, they want to reclaim their dignity.

Civil Society in 1989 and 2011

What is happening in Tunisia and Egypt is the completion of the 1989 revolutions. Giving back to us the meaning of civil society, this calls for a total rethinking of western security, foreign and economic policies

This week's theme: Human Security in practice

Mary Kaldor’s latest book is The Ultimate Weapon is No Weapon: Human Security and the New Rules of War and Peace co-authored with an American serving army officer, Shannon Beebe and published by Public Affairs. The book was primarily aimed at an American audience in the hope that the actual experience of Iraq and Afghanistan may open up an opportunity for rethinking security. It taps into what is already a wide-ranging debate in security circles. Here, our Human Security columnist introduces a special series of articles commissioned for openDemocracy on this theme

Time for the human approach

Dmitry Medvedev’s proposal for a new post-cold war security order offers a significant opportunity for the world. But both the West and Russia need to move on from conventional security logic, and think in terms of the human, argue Mary Kaldor and Javier Solana.

Documents at odds: the UK’s national security review

The narrative of the Cold War imposed a simplified vision of the world. The UK’s defence review does move towards an understanding that risks normally associated with domestic concerns now have to be dealt with on a global scale. What it does not do is to create a capability for this kind of intervention

Reconceptualising war

What if defeating the enemy was the justification for war, but not its real goal? What if its goal was a certain kind of power-brokerage?

Can Greece Lead the Way?

As the left across Europe flounders in the wake of the economic crisis, the Greek socialist party under George Papandreou could prove the exception with its dramatic election victory. His aim is nothing less than a pioneering form of progressive government that combines green development, democratic openness and international reconciliation.

Dismantling the global nuclear infrastructure

Over the last couple of years, a new anti-nuclear movement has emerged led by former politicians and officials of the Cold War era. They want to rid the world of nuclear weapons and they have put forward proposals for achieving this that largely consist of business left unfinished when they were in power. If they are to succeed in their ultimate goal, they need to be complemented by an anti-nuclear movement composed of citizens and politicians of the emergent global era who could develop a new set of proposals aimed at challenging outdated ways of thinking about nuclear weapons.

Poverty and activism: the heart of global civil society

The worldwide economic recession has focused attention on the problems of poverty and those who endure or are being pushed into it. The fact that - even before the onset of the current crisis - one-sixth of the world's population continue to live in extreme poverty and that many millions suffer and die needlessly for want of proper healthcare or clean water is a standing rebuke to claims that economic growth will automatically spread material affluence and "lift" millions from hardship.

Ashwani Kumar is associate professor at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences in Mumbai and visiting fellow at the Centre for the Study of Global Governance, London School of Economics (LSE). Among his publications is Community Warriors: State, Peasants and Private Caste Armies in Bihar (Anthem Press, 2008)

Jan Aart Scholte is professor of politics and international studies and director of the Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR) at the University of Warwick. He is co-editor of the journal Global Governance

Mary Kaldor is professor of global governance and co-director of the Centre for the Study of Global Governance, London School of Economics (LSE)

Marlies Glasius is a lecturer in international relations in the department of politics, University of Amsterdam. Among her books is The International Criminal Court: A Global Civil Society Achievement (Routledge, 2007)

Hakan Seckinelgin is a lecturer in international social policy in the department of social policy, London School of Economics (LSE). Among his publications is International Politics of HIV/AIDS: Global Disease-Local Pain (Routledge, 2008)

Helmut Anheier is director of the Center for Civil Society at UCLA's School of Public Affairs, and professor of sociology at Heidelberg University

The prevalence of poverty on this scale must be considered a failure of the world order (see Peter Singer, "A life to save: direct action on poverty", 11 May 2009). That means it is an issue not just for governments or international organisations, but for "global civil society" too. What has global civil society to say about poverty; what does the engagement of the one with the other reveal about the life of this vital idea itself?

India in the global order

These are the twin themes of the Global Civil Society Yearbook 2009 (Sage, 2009), the ninth edition of a series and a project that has sought to track and make sense of the evolution of civil-society initiatives and ideas around the world over this tumultuous decade. The many contributors to the latest volume consider the role of global civil society in pressing for a fairer world order which can address the problems of poverty.

In the first edition of the yearbook, global civil society was defined as the "sphere of ideas, values, institutions, organisations, networks, and individuals located between the family, the state, and the market and operating beyond the confines of national societies, polities, and economies" (see Helmut Anheier, Marlies Glasius & Mary Kaldor, Global Civil Society 2001).  

But any creative notion must be open to critical questioning. The focus of the current yearbook on poverty - a collaboration between the LSE's Centre for the Study of Global Governance and Mumbai's Tata Institute of Social Sciences - raises several. Among them are the following:

* Is global civil society in practice dominated by the ideas and values of rich countries purveyed by international NGOs and other institutions organised and funded  in the global north?

* Are the prevailing conceptions of poverty shaped by those who have never experienced it?

* Worse still, is global civil society a mechanism for legitimating extremes of wealth and poverty, for "naturalising" the continued existence of poverty?

* Is it an expression of the hegemony of rich states? Does it represent a form of "governmentality", which manages inequality on behalf the rich?

* Alternatively, does it offer a potential platform for the voices of the poor?

To explore these questions, the yearbook took as a lens for investigation the Indian context, where approximately a quarter of the world's poor people live - a huge number of them belonging to the categories of dalits (traditionally lower-castes), and adivasi (indigenous peoples and tribes). India may have made progressive strides in reducing poverty since independence, but it still harbours around 240 million people living below the "poverty-line".

In contrast to western developed societies, the Indian variation of the poverty-line is (infamously) defined in terms of absolute poverty - access to sufficient food energy for biological survival - that focuses on a "'minimum level of living' rather than ‘reasonable level of living'" (see R Ramakrishna, Economic Reforms: Poverty and Inequality, 2004). Moreover, chronic hunger is systemic and violence against poor people is pervasive in many parts of India. As important, rising inequality has exacerbated the conditions of the country's poor. All these reasons make India a suitable core theme for the study of poverty with a global civil society focus.

The need to encompass India's place in the global order, to accommodate comparative studies, and to examine the global-local nexus led to a decision to alternate chapters that focus on India and are written by Indian authors with those tackling global concerns. It is through the global-local interchange that some answers begin to take shape; and the hope that poverty may be ultimately eradicated begins to transcend national boundaries, cultural barriers, and ethnic prejudices.

The anti-poverty resource

A key proposition that emerges from our researches, particularly relevant at a time when "naturalising" explanations of poverty retain their appeal, is that poverty - in India and elsewhere - is not a natural or passive state that results from backwardness or lack of engagement with modernity and globalisation. Nor are poor people a single entity, categorised under the label "poor" and defined in terms of bundles of goods or money. They are - in India - adivasi, dalits, sex-workers, homeless migrants, street-vendors, squatters, bonded-labourers, displaced people, eunuchs, construction-workers, riot-affected people, excluded diasporic citizens, refugees, street-children, and slum-dwellers. They lack the resources, opportunities and participatory avenues in collective-decision making that would enable them to overcome their poverty. Their poverty is reproduced over and over again through obstacles actually constructed as a consequence of modernity; they are the victims not of a timeless condition of poverty but of an ongoing and renewable process of impoverishment.

The Indian focus of the yearbook is an opportunity to feature those engaged in the great variety of civil-society activism in the country, as well as encompassing those living in extreme forms of absolute poverty and those lacking voice and representation in collective decision-making (sometimes distinct but often overlapping categories). In Indian and other contexts, scholars and practitioners from India, Australia, Wales, Mali, Thailand, South Africa, the United States and Egypt interrogate discourses of poverty as well as statistics; study local groups that engage global issues as well as global organisations that intersect with local contexts; and explore theory and practice, the secular and the religious, the visual and the verbal.

Amid this variety, a theme that emerges clearly in the 2009 edition of the yearbook is that the most resourceful, entrepreneurial people in the world are indeed those real "slumdog millionaires" who must scratch out their survival every day in the bleakest, most degrading of circumstances and ultimately overcome all forms of adversity to embrace and hang on to life. Their poverty, these studies show, is owed not to their own failings (or past karmas) but to structural realities - both economic (the inequitable distribution of global capital, the exploitation of cheap labour) and political (the manipulation of global institutions of governance, the legacy of authoritarian and ineffective states).

This discovery helps to rebut the trend of some of the critical questioning outlined above that sees global civil society as at its core a set of western NGOs which act as a non-political group of transnational service-providers. To the contrary, most civil-society scholars today view civil society as "inherently a political project" whose purpose is to resist dominant structures of power, enhance the hold of popular sovereignty in decision-making and reconceptualise the rights of poor and disadvantaged people, locally and globally.

The yearbook's authors treat the "poverty-reduction project" as an open-ended process whereby inegalitarian and unaccountable structures of power are interrogated, criticised, challenged, and ultimately reversed. The critical scrutiny of global civil society should continue, but the evidence of our researches is that its actors are at the forefront of campaigns that have the best chance of "making poverty history".


Also in openDemocracy:

Marlies Glasius, Helmut Anheier & Mary Kaldor, "Global civil society: the politics of a new world?" (15 January 2004)

Marlies Glasius, "Global civil society comes of age" (14 November 2001)

Neera Chandhoke, "What the hell is 'civil society'?" (17 March 2005)

Leni Wild, "The darker side of global civil society" (3 April 2006)

Gaza: the "new war"

Izzeldin Abuelaish is a Palestinian gynaecologist who lives in Gaza and works in an Israeli hospital and runs a free clinic in Gaza on weekends. His specialty is infertility and he helps Israeli women who have difficulty conceiving. He was born and brought up in a Palestinian refugee camp and became a doctor after studying his own medical records when he was ill as a boy.

The paradox of Basra

When I arrived in Basra on a Royal Jordanian flight from Amman, my bags were searched. I had been reading Patrick Cockburn’s book on Muqtada al-Sadr on the plane. The glossy cover with Muqtada’s picture and English writing was greeted with excitement by the customs officers, probably themselves poor Shi’a. One of them kissed the picture of Muqtada and asked if he could keep the cover.

Secure Afghanistan

During the election campaign, Barack Obama made much of the situation in Afghanistan. Indeed he argued (rather disappointingly since the war in Iraq should be regarded as a terrible mistake regardless of what was happening in Afghanistan) that the reason he was against the war in Iraq was because it diverted attention from Afghanistan and the hunt for Al Qaeda. He has already expressed his commitment to an Afghan ‘surge’ and he plans to send extra combat brigades to the area. He also made it clear that he was ready to continue ‘operations’ in Pakistan.

Crisis as prelude to a new Golden Age

Underlying the financial crisis is a deeper structural crisis in the real economy. It has to do with the mismatch between our social and political institutions and the profound changes in society wrought by the so-called `new economy.' This is why the solution goes well beyond a bank bail-out. Sustainable economic growth and stability can only be achieved again through a `new deal' at a global level that includes addressing climate change, poverty reduction and human security. Indeed, the present crisis is one of those epochal moments in human affairs. How we act now will have implications far beyond the present turmoil. It will shape the lives of future generations.

Mary Kaldor is professor of global governance at the London School of Economics (LSE), and convenor of the human-security study group that reports to the European Union's foreign-policy chief Javier Solana

Links relating to this article and Mary Kaldor's other columns are available at diigo here.

The best book to explain all this is Carlota Perez Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: the Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.Perez can be described as a neo-Schumpeterian (a strand of economic thought developed in the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex in the 1980s and 1990s, under the inspiration of Christopher Freeman ).

Their argument is based on the idea of long waves in the history of capitalism, as a consequence of the bunching together of technological innovations, which they call a `techno-economic paradigm '. Each wave is characterised by some critical invention that leads to a new set of technologies and infrastructures that all are interlinked, and a new type of `best practice'.

Since 1771, when Arkwright's Mill was opened in Cromford, there have been five great surges of development:

  1. the industrial revolution characterised by the mechanised cotton industry, factory labour, and the spread of canals;

  2. the age of steam and railways;

  3. the age of electricity and steel;

  4. the age of the car and mass production and

  5. our own era the age of information and telecommunications technologies.

Also in openDemocracy on the global financial crisis of 2007-08:

Tony Curzon Price, "Responsible recessions" (3 April 2008)

Willem Buiter, "The end of American capitalism (as we knew it)" (17 September 2008)

Fred Halliday, "The revenge of ideas: Karl Polanyi and Susan Strange" (24 September 2008)

Godfrey Hodgson, "The week that democracy won" (29 September 2008)

Tony Curzon Price, "Unprincipled madness" (1 October 2008)

Grahame Thompson, "Deglobalising the crisis" (3 October 2008)

Will Hutton, "Wanted: a fairer capitalism" (6 October 2008)

Avinash Persaud, "Europe's financial crisis: the integration lesson" (7 October 2008)

Paul Rogers, "A world in flux: crisis to agency" (16 October 2008)

Andrew Dobson & David Hayes, "A politics of crisis: low-energy cosmopolitanism" (22 October 2008)

Paul Rogers, "A crisis-opportunity moment" (23 October 2008) Anita Sharma, "The core crisis: standing with the poor" (30 October 2008)

Each era is characterised by some defining moment like Ford's Model T first mass produced in 1908 or the discovery of the microprocessor in 1971; by its own core factor of production such as oil (the age of the automobile) or the chip (the age of information technology). The epoch is also defined by a core economy - Britain in the first three waves with the US and Germany catching up in the third wave, and the US in the two most recent waves, spreading to Europe and Asia.

Each era goes through an installation periodthat ends in a financial collapse and a deployment periodwhen all conditions are there for taking full advantage of the new technologies across the whole economy and the benefits are more evenly spread throughout society. This ends in a phase of maturity and eventually saturation when the techno-economic paradigm is diffused throughout the economy and society and when technological progress slows down, the core factor of production is no longer plentiful and when protest about established ways of doing things develops..

Perez's contribution is two fold. First she demonstrates the importance of the institutional framework. She explains crises and depressions in terms of a mismatch between social and political institutions and the techno-economic paradigm. She accounts for `golden ages' in terms of contrasting periods of harmony.

The depression of the 1930s is explained in terms of the mismatch between financial and regulatory arrangements, which were an expression of the social and political institutions, largely established by Britain in the late nineteenth century and the huge potential for economic expansion resulting from the marriage of oil and mass production pioneered in the United States known as Fordism.

These new technological discoveries had resulted in massive productivity increases that were not matched by the pattern of demand. The `new deal' and the war led to redistribution of income and the construction of the Bretton Woods system, through which sterling was supplanted by the dollar, that enabled the rise and spread of mass consumption in the West (and in the East, mass armaments) and that led to a new Golden Age in the 1950s and 1960s. .

But already in the late 1960s the productivity gains of the mass production era began to slow down and workers and students began to rebel against the tedium of mass production routines. The stagflation of the 1970s and 1980s was the result of the maturity of those technologies, when it became harder and harder to innovate within the existing paradigm, when markets became increasingly saturated and when the key factor of production, oil, became much more expensive.

The developed economies revived in the 1990s. Not only was there intense investment in information technology itself which was beginning to weigh more significantly in growth and employment but we also witnessed the modernization of the mass production industries with computerized equipment, the internet and the new organizational models. At the same time and thanks to the global reach of telecommunications, massive production capacity was created across the world, and especially in Asia .

The rapid growth of information and telecommunications technologies and their application to a range of industries in the last two decades has, however, largely taken place within the pattern of demand established during the Fordist era, based on consumption and, to a lesser degree, military spending. Cars and consumer durables have greatly improved. The Internet has made possible cheap air travel. New consumer goods like ipods or video games have been invented. New more precise aircraft, missiles and tanks have been developed in the military sector. Above all, similar patterns of consumption have reached millions of people in places like China or India.

But all the same the new paradigm is coming against limits - limits imposed by existing patterns of income distribution, limits resulting from the saturation of consumer markets in the West and, perhaps most importantly the economic and environmental limits that are the consequence of the dependence of this pattern of growth on carbons, especially oil. What is needed now are a new set of institutions capable of shifting the pattern of demand so as to allow the new paradigm to diffuse through out the global economy in a sustainable way.

Perez's second contribution is to explain the role of finance capital in these great surges of development. Finance is critical for the spread of innovation. Schumpeter defined capitalism as that `kind of private property economy in which innovations are carried out by means of borrowed money.' Each wave is also characterised by financial innovations - joint stock companies in the railway age, hire purchase in the automobile age, or plastic and e-banking or hedge funds in the current era. In the installation phase, finance capital starts to fund the new technologies and big profits are made. Indeed, many of the new financial innovations have made possible the increase in real consumption; for example, credit cards and new types of mortgages. This is the period when deregulation becomes fashionable and when free markets are seen as the mechanism for addressing the sluggishness of the old paradigm.

Snuff Mill, Morden Hall Park, Merton, London.
Severn Trent Railway Steam Engine

Want some chips?

 

But because the spread of the new paradigm comes up against limits, the installation period ends in a frenzy phase when the `new economy' is not yet large enough for sustained investment but when finance capital has got used to making big profits. `In order to achieve the same high yield from all investments as from the successful new sectors' says Perez `finance capital becomes highly `innovative'. Imagination moves from real estate to paintings, from loans in faraway countries, to pyramid schemes, from hostile takeovers to derivatives or whatever.'

This is the moment when greater risk is licensed and when a mountain of paper wealth is created masking the mismatch between the new economy and the social and political institutions. This is a period of extreme social polarisation when the gains from economic growth are not redistributed. It is a period that celebrates making money, in which selfishness is considered `good'. And it is in this context that financial schemes become increasingly wild.

At the same time, the financial architecture, along with the institutional framework, also inhibits the channelling of capital into productive growth. In each wave, financial architecture has been centred on the core country. The dominant currency was sterling in the first three waves. After Bretton Woods, the dollar became the international currency and the federal reserve the lender of last resort. For the first twenty five years after Bretton Woods, the system, based on fixed exchange rates tied to gold and the dollar, worked rather well; this was a period of harmony, the Golden Age of the automobile era. The United States provided massive economic and military assistance to the rest of the world (except the Communist bloc), which returned to the US in the form of purchases of American goods.

But as other countries caught up, US trade surpluses vanished. The turning point was the high cost of the Vietnam War and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the same year that Intel invented the microprocessor. In the subsequent era of floating exchange rates and neo-liberal prescriptions, the dollar remained the dominant currency. But instead of stimulating the rest of the world, the American financial system sucked in money from the rest of the world through massive borrowing. Much of this money came from the so-called emerging markets and oil states via what are known as sovereign wealth funds. But it also came from poor countries who borrowed when economic aid dried up and who continue to be net lenders to the United States. The trillion dollar war in Iraq and the Bush era tax cuts for the rich has taken US borrowing to new heights; as of September 2008, overall US debt was 350% of American GDP.

The borrowing was, of course, a stimulus to the world economy. China and India grew dramatically through exporting to the indebted West. But both because of exchange rates and because there were no limits to US borrowing, most of the current account surpluses ended up inflating Western assets rather than improving infrastructure and reducing poverty. As long as the world had confidence in the United States (and Britain) and as long as assets continued to inflate thus generating high returns from lending, the debt could keep growing.

The current crisis is the end of the frenzy phase of installation -the moment when the bubble has burst. Of course the immediate crisis is the consequence of short term factors (weak financial regulation, securitisation, excessive risk-taking, etc.) whereas the underlying structural problems are long-term. While the argument about the mismatch between institutions and the techno-economic paradigm suggests that a crisis is inevitable, the theory cannot predict when the crisis will happen or how.

The risk is that ameliorative measures are taken now to restore trust in the financial sector without addressing the long term structural problems that result from the dismantling of many of the institutions of the automobile era, through deregulation, and the absence of an appropriate institutional framework for the new information era. The problem is that patterns of demand and the habits formed by political and social institutions tend to be much more resistant to change than economies. Or to put it in another way, economic change is a consequence of market relations, whereas institutions and culture change through various forms of social and political contestation. In previous eras, it has taken war and revolution as well as prolonged depression before a new institutional framework was established. After all, the Wall Street crash took place in 1929 and it was only after the war and fascism, that the conditions for a new golden age of the automobile era were established.

The point, of course, is that the crisis is a turning point when the challenge is to establish a new global regulatory framework that can channel the new innovations into economically and environmentally sustainable economic growth. We need a new global financial architecture-, based on a combination of the dollar, the euro and the yen and a new exchange rate mechanism - in short, a new Bretton Woods. We need new methods of financial regulation as well as access to liquidity for poor countries. But above all, we need a new global stimulus package that will facilitate the spread of the information era and the growth of productive capital in sustainable ways so that lending does not continually increase debt but also creates sufficient income based on productive work to repay debt. Otherwise, the global economy is likely to limp along and we are likely to face more crises (both economic and political) in the future.

Such a package could involve large-scale redistribution to developing countries , allowing them to build the critical infrastructures of the information era, and to increase the consumption of poor people by providing jobs so that consumption is financed by productive income rather than debt. But it would also need to involve energy saving innovation, recycling especially waste, and the development of renewables, especially solar power, so that increased economic growth does not come up against the limits that could result from the high price of carbons and environmental degradation including global warming. It must be possible to spread the benefits of development without killing the planet.

The package would also need to involve a restructuring of the security sector away from the Fordist preoccupations with state security and sophisticated weapons platforms powered by combustion engines to providing the everyday security that could enable economic development in large parts of the world relying on to a much greater extent on improved communications than improved weapons. This is what is needed to initiate the transition from installation to full deployment, to promote the golden age of the information era.

In many of the commentaries on the crisis, there are calls for a new Keynes. Others insist that Keynsianism never worked and that neoliberalism should not be abandoned. What these two views fail to take into account is that the appropriate remedies depend on the phase of the long cycle. In the installation period, liberalisation frees up finance capital to invest in the new paradigm and to finance big increases in productivity. But in the deployment phase, some sort of stimulus is needed to channel finance into sustainable outlets and to develop appropriate markets.

The new Keynes has to be a Neo-Schumpeterian. Neo-Schumpeterianism is both supply side and demand side; it is about matching the social and institutional framework to the techno-economic paradigm. Keynes thought it was enough to dig holes within a national context if that would stimulate the economy and, indeed, that was the solution in a mass production era. But in the current era, any stimulus has to be directed towards structural sustainability on a global basis. This is Keynsian in the sense of stimulating demand but it is neo-Schumpeterian in so far as it matters how money is spent, in the insistence that any stimulus must provide a sustainable outlet for the extraordinary gains in technological know-how of the last thirty years.

A global effort to eradicate poverty and tackle climate change world-wide would be the best way to overcome the limits to productive and environmentally sustainable growth and spread the new techno-economic paradigm.

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