About Andrew Legon

Andrew Legon holds an MPhil in International Relations from Cambridge University and a BA in History from University College London.

Articles by Andrew Legon

Al-Qaeda video attacks "house negro" Obama

A statement purporting to be from al-Qaeda's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has called on Muslims to harm "criminal" America. The first video from the Islamic militant network since the US presidential elections ran more than eleven minutes and was translated by the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors militant web sites.

The toD verdict:
According to Lawrence Wright, the author of The Looming Tower, the eventual outcome of the election wrong-footed al-Qaeda, which had been expecting a McCain victory. Arguably, the success of Barack Obama, a black man who spent part of his childhood in Indonesia and whose father was from a Muslim family has re-energised the crucial battle for "hearts and minds" in the war on terror. Just two months ago a BBC poll found the United States losing this propaganda war. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here


Consequently, experts have concluded that this latest message is a desperate PR effort by al-Qaeda. Its aim is to undercut Muslim enthusiasm for Obama and reconstruct a clear enemy after the muddying of al-Qaeda's Manichean message. In the message, Zawahri said that although America had a "new face", it masked a "heart full of hate." Resorting to racial slurs, Zawahari sought to challenge the assumption that Obama would herald change in US foreign policy, calling the president-elect a "house slave" who would do the bidding of his white masters and continue the policies of George Bush.

Criticising Obama's plans for further troop deployments in Afghanistan, the message claimed that America "continues to be the same as ever, so we must continue to harm it, in order for it to come to its senses." However Zawahiri issued no specific threats and US officials made clear that there was no indication of a heightened threat against the US.

Cheney, Gonzales indicted in South Texas county

Vice President Dick Cheney and former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales have been indicted by a grand jury in Willacy County on Tuesday. Both are charged with blocking an investigation into the mistreatment of prisoners. Cheney is accused of having a financial stake in prison-related businesses, including the Vanguard Group, which has an interest in privately-run federal jails in the region. As such he is accused of "profiteering from depriving human beings of their liberty". The indictment accuses Gonzales of using his position while in office to stop an investigation in 2006 into abuses at one of the privately-run prisons. Willacy County, a hub for prisons at county, state and federal levels, has witnessed a number of eccentric court battles, most launched by Juan Guerra, the local district attorney. Critics accuse Guerra of trying to settle old scores in his final weeks in office. He insisted however that the decision to bring charges was made by the grand jury.

Anti-war groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish cabinet

In other news concerning the US president-elect, antiwar groups have expressed concern over Obama's national security team. They note that most of the candidates for top security posts in the new administration voted for the 2002 resolution authorising President Bush to invade Iraq, or otherwise supported launching the war. Unease has centred on widespread reports that that Hillary Clinton and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates could be in the Obama cabinet. According to Sam Husseini of the Institute for Public Accuracy, "It's astonishing that not one of the 23 senators or 133 House members who voted against the war is in the mix".

Fatal blast hits Bangkok protest

A fatal bomb blast in Bangkok on Thursday has killed at least one and wounded 22 others. No group has claimed responsibility. The blast ripped through a group of anti-government demonstrators camped inside the city's Government House compound. The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has occupied the area since late August. They demand the resignation of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's government claiming it is a proxy of ousted former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. The largely peaceful protests erupted into violent clashes on 7 October; two people were left dead and nearly 500 injured when police fired tear gas at demonstrators trying to block parliament. Since then a small number of blasts have targeted the PAD protesters. Analysts suggest the latest explosion heralds the start of more aggressive efforts to disperse the camp which could spark an upsurge in political violence.

Britain establishes intelligence links with Syria

High-level intelligence links between Syria and Britain have been re-established according to The Times newspaper on Wednesday. Aimed at combating terrorism, preparatory meetings had been secretly conducted for months. The move was a key objective of UK Foreign Secretary David Milliband's historic visit to Damascus this week. Miliband said Syria could play a constructive role fostering stability. According to experts, Syria has an extremely efficient intelligence-gathering system renowned for tracking the movements of Islamic extremists around the middle east. Miliband's meetings, coupled with reciprocal presidential trips between Syria and France, have brought an end to the international isolation Damascus has suffered for hosting exiled leaders of Hamas and providing support for Hezbollah.

Sri Lanka army "takes rebel area"

Sri Lankan soldiers have captured a strategically important line of defence in the north of the island. After several days of intensive fighting, which claimed the lives of fifty rebels and ten soldiers, government forces overran the five-mile fortified embankment located on the northern Jaffna peninsula. Two further defensive lines are said to divide Tamil Tiger territory from the government's. Government spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella claimed the recent capture could herald a breakthrough in bringing an end to Tamil Tiger control in Jaffna peninsula. This latest development follows a string of government successes. Earlier this week Sri Lankan troops captured the town of Mankulam effectively cutting off rebel supply routes. On Sunday, the army claimed it had entered the Tamil Tiger stronghold of Pooneryn thereby controlling the entire western coast. The government is conducting a major offensive to end the island's civil war in which the Tamil Tigers have been fighting for a separate state for the ethnic Tamil minority.

Obama's counter-terrorist policies: plus ça change...?

During an interview on 60 Minutes last night President-elect Barack Obama said he plans to close the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay and rebuild the nation's moral stature. The Associated Press is reporting that Obama advisers are crafting a plan that would set some prisoners free while others would be sent to trial in criminal courts in the United States.

The toD verdict: "I intend to close Guantanamo," Obama said, "and I will follow through on that. I have said repeatedly that America doesn't torture, and I'm going to make sure that we don't torture." Worldwide, many will greet these comments as a very positive break from the policies of George W. Bush.

Upon closer investigation, however, the proposals suggest that celebrations are premature. Under the Obama camp's plan, a third group of prisoners from Guantanamo Bay would be placed in front of a new court system designed to handle so-called "national security" cases. According to Michael Ratner this more negative side to these proposals represents the continuation of a preventive detention scheme, "when you are put into a prison without being charged with a crime and without having a trial on that charge." This amounts to a re-wrapping of Guantanamo in legal paper to make it more palatable.Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here


Meanwhile, John Brennan and Jami Miscik are leading Barack Obama's review of intelligence agencies and helping make recommendations to the new administration. Brennan supported warrantless wiretapping and extraordinary rendition, and Miscik was involved with the politicized intelligence alleging weapons of mass destruction in the lead-up to the war on Iraq. According to insiders, most of the candidates for director of national intelligence and director of the CIA are midway between safeguarding civil liberties and the untrammeled pursuit of nontraditional adversaries.

Both of these developments suggest that counter-terrorism and intelligence policies under Obama will not be as radically different to that of his predecessors as many have predicted and hoped.

Hijacked oil tanker approaches Somalia

A giant Saudi oil tanker seized off the coast of Kenya is nearing an anchorage point at Eyl today, according to the US Fifth Fleet. Pirates seized the supertanker on Saturday. Three times the size of an aircraft carrier, the Sirius Star is the largest tanker ever to be hijacked. Moreover the ship was carrying 2m barrels of oil, worth more than $100m. According to commentators this is the first loaded oil tanker to be seized by pirates. Its international crew of 25 is said to be safe. The ship is expected to anchor at the port of Eyl, often used by pirates based in Somalia, so that negotiations can begin on the release of the vessel and its crew. Regional pirates have launched a string of increasingly regular and brazen attacks off the coast of East Africa and the Gulf of Aden in recent months. Hijackings in this area make up one-third of all global piracy incidents this year, according the International Maritime Bureau. This latest hijacking highlights the difficulties facing a multi-national naval task force sent to the region earlier this year specifically to deal with the problem of Somali piracy.

Sri Lankan military sinks two rebel boats

Sri Lankan naval forces sunk two Tamil-Tiger boats and killed six rebel sailors Tuesday. The naval battle erupted in Nayaru Lagoon on Sri Lanka's northeast coast when Sri Lankan forces, backed by helicopter gunships attacked seven rebel ships. Elsewhere, the Sri Lankan military continued its intense offensive against the rebels' de facto state in the north. Military sources claim that airstrikes attacked rebel gathering points in Kilinochchi district early Tuesday. Meanwhile, ground battles were being fought in the Jaffna, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi fronts. Government forces have captured large swathes of formerly Tamil Tiger-held territory leading some to conclude an end in sight to the island's long civil war.

Doctor admits he is "a terrorist"

An NHS doctor has admitted that according to English law, he is a terrorist. On trial for attempted car bombings in London and at Glasgow Airport in 2007, Bilal Adbulla told the court that "by the definition of the [Terrorism] Act...yes. That is my aim to change opinion using violence, using fire devices." He is alleged to have crashed into the airport in a Jeep laden with petrol and gas canisters but denied that he wanted to kill or injure anyone. The defence claims that Dr Abdulla and co-conspirator Kafeel Ahmed wanted to highlight the plight of people in Iraq and Afghanistan. "I am told I am a terrorist," he said, "but is your government not a terrorist, is your army not a terrorist?"

Israeli tanks move into Gaza

Israel launched a military incursion into the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, clashing with Palestinian militants. Tanks backed by a bulldozer and military jeeps pushed up to a quarter-mile into Gaza. Residents claim they leveled structures along the border east of the city of Rafah. The incursion is the latest violence to chip away at a tenuous cease-fire agreed between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas last July. After nearly five months of relative quiet, the ceasefire has been under serious strain since early November; at least 17 Palestinian militants have been killed and more than 140 rockets and mortars fired at Israel. As a result of militants firing six rockets on Monday, Israel said today that it will keep all border crossings with the Gaza Strip closed in spite of calls from the United Nations and European Union urging it to ease the blockade. Israel allowed a humanitarian aid convoy of 33 trucks into Gaza on Monday but the United Nations fears supplies will soon run out. "The supplies will last days, not weeks," said UN Works and Relief Agency (UNRWA) spokesman Chris Gunness.

Taliban rejects offer of peace talks

Taliban militants rejected peace talks with the Afghan government on Monday. President Hamid Karzai offered peace talks on Sunday, claiming he would go to "any lengths" to provide security for the Taliban's leader Mullah Omar if the offer was accepted. Taliban spokesman Qari Yusuf Ahmadi said that the offer was pointless considering "the real power in Afghanistan does not rest with Karzai." The Taliban have concluded that there can be no peace talks until foreign troops leave Afghanistan. This is not the first time the Afghan president has advocated reaching out to the Taliban as part of a political settlement. Neither is this the first time his calls have been rejected.

Arrests signal rise of "Hindu terrorism" in India

Indian police arrested a Hindu monk on Wednesday during an investigation into a wave of bomb attacks that have killed more than 200 people this year. Sudhakar Dwivedi, who often used the alias Swami Amritanand, was arrested in Kanpur in the central state of Uttar Pradesh. The head of a Hindu monastery, Amritanand was charged with conspiring in an attack on the predominantly Muslim town of Malegoan in September which killed four people.

The toD Verdict: In years past, terrorism in India has been largely blamed on Islamist groups. Concern has recently shifted, however, to the rising problem of Hindu militancy which many fear could be fulfilling Jawaharlal Nehru's prediction in 1964 that the main danger to India was "Hindu right-wing communalism." The case of Sudhakar Dwivedi follows the arrest of nine other suspects who have been charged with murder and conspiracy in connection with the Malegoan bombing. In August, two members of a Hindu chauvinist group the Bajrang Dal died while trying to build a bomb in the northern town of Kanpur. Two other suspected members of the same group died under similar circumstances in 2006. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here


Bal Thackeray, the leader of another Hindu hard-line group the Shiv Sena, wrote in June that "the threat of Islamic terror in India is rising... it is time to counter the same with Hindu terror. Hindu suicide squads should be readied to ensure the existence of Hindu society and to protect the nation."

Worryingly, analysts have highlighted disturbing connections between fringe Hindu militants and military and civilian officials. One of the Malegoan suspects, Lt. Colonel Shrikant Prasad Purohit, has been accused of providing money, arms and training to the bombers. Meanwhile, in the eastern state of Orissa, Hindu police officers have been accused of deliberate inaction and active participation in recent anti-Christian violence. Fraternal outfits of the state-ruling BJP party such as the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and the Bajrang Dal have been implicated in the violence.

Hindu militancy, which has been labeled "reverse terrorism" by partisans who see such action as revenge for earlier Muslim or Christian provocation, is a worrisome escalation of violence that could pose an existential threat to multicultural India.

Afghan suicide attack kills many

A suicide car bomb has killed at least 18 civilians and one US soldier in eastern Afghanistan Thursday. The attack targeted a US-led coalition convoy at a market near Jalalabad, the capital of the eastern Nangarhar province. Although no one has claimed responsibility for the bombing, it remains likely the attack was carried out by Taliban insurgents fighting foreign and Afghan government troops.

Chemical ship hijacked off Yemen

A Turkish cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden was seized by pirates Wednesday. Carrying 4,500 tonnes of unspecified chemicals to India, the Karagol was hijacked 26km off the coast of Yemen. The attack follows a series of other incidents in the Gulf of Aden. Another chemical-carrying tanker was seized by Somali pirates on Monday. The next day, the Russian and British Navy's positively identified a Yemeni vessel involved in a hijacking attempt on a Danish cargo ship. British commandos reportedly gave chase, killing two of the suspected pirates in an ensuing gunfight.

Insurgents "seize" Somalia port

Islamist insurgents have taken control of the port of Merka, 90km south of the Somali capital, Mogadishu. Without firing a shot, hundreds of fighters from the al-Shabaab group drove into the strategic port after government-aligned militia left overnight. The capture of Merka is another significant territorial gain for the insurgents who also control the port of Kismayo, which was taken in August. Different Islamist groups now control most of south Somalia. Experts suggest that al-Shabaab now have a new base for its attacks on the western-backed government and its Ethiopian military allies in Mogadishu. The UN has been trying to broker a peace process in Somalia which has been wracked by conflict for nearly two decades. Under the peace plan, Ethiopian troops were to start withdrawing from Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab's growing strength may now force a change in strategy.

Iran diplomat abducted in Pakistan

Gunmen kidnapped an Iranian diplomat and killed his guard in the Pakistani city of Peshawar Thursday morning. The commercial attaché of the Iranian consulate was attacked whilst on his way to work in Hayatabad, a neighbourhood near the Khyber tribal region bordering Afghanistan. Areas around Peshawar are strongholds of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The incident occurred just a day after an American aid worker and his driver were shot in the city. Despite these attacks, experts say that despite some high profile incidents, foreigners are rarely targeted in Pakistan.

US cracks down on Islamic charity

The United States moved on Wednesday against an Islamic charity suspected of helping to bankroll Hamas. Action by the Treasury Department means that any bank accounts or other financial assets in the US belonging to the Union of Good will be frozen. Americans are also barred from donating to the group. The militant Palestinian group is considered an international terrorist organization by the US. An undersecretary at the department said that "terrorist groups such as Hamas continue to exploit charities to radicalise vulnerable communities and cultivate support for their violent activities". According to the department, funds transferred by the Union of Good have compensated Hamas terrorists by providing payments to the families of suicide bombers.

Martial law imposed in Peru's restive south

Southern Peru was placed under martial law today. Prime Minister Yehude Simon declared a state of emergency in the provinces of Tacna, Jorge Basadre, Candarave and Tarata after reports that three people were killed and dozens injured in recent protests. Violent demonstrations started last Thursday when 4,000 demonstrators clashed with police and set fire to a government building. Protests were sparked by new legislation which cuts the amount of mining tax revenues Tacna receives in favour of the neighbouring region of Moquegua.

The toD verdict: The controversial law and subsequent protests stem from the geographical and economic cleavages dividing the country. Peru's mining sector has been capitalising on high metals prices, with GDP growth for 2008 expected to reach 9%. However, the profits largely benefit the main coastal cities. Many in the Andean and Amazon interior still live in acute poverty. According to analysts, successive governments have grappled with the difficulty of ensuring an equitable distribution of growth amongst societal sectors and geographical regions. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here

Such socio-regional polarization, which has been building for some time, has resulted in a revived culture of protest. President García's recent cabinet reshuffle was in part a response to a number of different demonstration campaigns at the beginning of October 2008. 

Experts suggest that it is necessary for the government to engage seriously with the protesters. The potential for further hostilities is ever-present; according to the ombudsman's office in Peru, the lack of channels for political communication means that social mobilisation can quickly turn violent. However, Prime Minister Simon has said he will not negotiate with authorities in the southern Tacna region while protests continue. Until now Peruvian governments have often sought to extinguish social unrest without tackling its root cause. In the longer term, therefore, the government must enact social policies which address Peru's regional and economic inequalities.

Aid workers kidnapped in Somalia

Gunmen raided an airstrip in central Somalia on Wednesday, kidnapping six members of the French aid group Action Against Hunger. Four European aid workers and two Kenyan pilots were taken from the airstrip in the town of Dhusa-Mareb, near the Ethiopian border. The town, jointly run by the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and the Shebab group, remains an Islamist stronghold. Large parts of the country were taken over by the ICU in 2006 before being ousted by government forces backed by Ethiopian troops. Wracked by conflict since 1991, Somalia now faces an Islamist and nationalist insurgency.

Civilians have borne the brunt of the fighting. More than half the population (some 3 million people) require food or medical help. Aid agencies have been increasingly targeted in recent months, making their operations virtually impossible to sustain.

Four killed in twin Baghdad bombs

Further bomb attacks struck both sides of the sectarian divide in Baghdad on Thursday morning. Four people were killed in twin bomb attacks in a Sunni area of the capital. Reports indicate that at least two of those killed were members of an Awakening Council. Such groups, formed by insurgents who have switched sides, now oppose al-Qaeda in Iraq. Elsewhere in the capital a roadside bomb exploded in the Shia stronghold of Sadr City. Nine people were injured. Another roadside bomb detonated in central Bab al-Sheikh neighbourhood. One person was killed and four others injured.

Violence in the capital has increased markedly this week. More than thirty people have been killed, and more than eighty wounded in a series of daily bomb attacks. But US officials say that attacks in Baghdad, averaging about four a day, are down by nearly 90 per cent from levels in late 2006 before America's surge and the emergence of Awakening Councils.  

Pipeline explosion in Turkey

An explosion tore through the Turkish section of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline late Wednesday. Turkey's state-owned pipeline company Botas turned off the valves, cutting the transport of oil following the explosion, which left a four-metre wide crater in the ground. Although the cause of the blast is, as yet, unknown, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) claimed responsibility for an explosion on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in August.

US airstrike kills militant and civilians in Afghanistan

Fifteen Taliban militants and seven civilians were reported killed on Thursday after an airstrike in northwest Afghanistan. The incident occurred in Ghormach district of Badghis province, after a long clash between militants and government/foreign forces.

The attack comes just one day after President Hamid Karzai, in a speech to congratulate President-elect Obama, demanded a halt to civilian casualties in US operations. Earlier this week a coalition airstrike in the south of Afghanistan killed 37 people, mostly women and children, who had gathered for a wedding. US and NATO forces have killed at least 275 civilians this year.

Hundreds of terror plots foiled by Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia claims it foiled a 2003 terror plot against the United States. Militants planned to hijack a plane, exploding it over a densely populated US city. The 2003 plot was just one of 160 planned terror attacks the Kingdom claims to have disrupted.

The country, birthplace of the al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, has pursued an aggressive campaign against militants since May 2003, when the terrorist group launched a series of bombings in the capital Riyadh.

The toD verdict: Saudi Arabia has been applauded recently for its aggressive and multi-dimensional crackdown on jihadist militants. In a big step forward in the country's fight against militancy, Saudi courts have begun procedures to try 991 prisoners held on terrorism charges. Meanwhile, British prime minister Gordon Brown met former jihadists Wednesday as he toured a rehabilitation centre for extremists in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia's claim to have foiled nearly two hundred terror plots is meant to reinforce the Kingdom's success in waging a wide-ranging offensive against radical militancy.  Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here


But more tenuous connections to Islamist terrorism still persists. Saudi Arabia remains the financial hub of worldwide terror networks. In treasure, so too in blood. Extremist clerics gather recruits to be dispatched to many of the world's hotspots. Saudis are thought to form the largest contingent of foreign terrorists fighting in Iraq. And the kingdom still promotes an extreme form of Islam known as Wahhabism, both at home and abroad. A review of Saudi Arabia's 2007-2008 education curriculum by The Hudson Institute found that, despite promised reforms, the Kingdom still teaches a violent ideology in which it is deemed permissible for a Muslim to kill an "apostate," an "adulterer," a "homosexual," as well as non-Muslims practicing "polytheism," or Christianity.

While Saudi Arabia should be praised for many of its efforts, further action is needed. Can the Kingdom be relied upon to take the necessary measures?

Naval stand off between Burma and Bangladesh

Tensions in the Bay of Bengal escalated on Monday. Naval vessels from Bangladesh and Burma faced off after a row erupted over oil and gas exploration in the area. Bangladesh officials claim a Burmese flotilla began exploration for oil and gas in disputed waters near Saint Martin's island. Dhaka dispatched a naval patrol to the area after lodging a diplomatic protest.

Bangladesh is sending a senior diplomat to Burma to resolve the dispute. Dhaka says it wants to resolve the dispute peacefully but that it will do everything necessary to protect its sovereignty. Military-ruled Burma has made no official comment.   

Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Toheid Hossain will hold talks with Burmese officials on Wednesday. The two countries are also scheduled to hold talks in mid November to demarcate a maritime boundary. Analysts predict that success is highly unlikely due to the vast energy resources found in the bay. Both nations, two of the world's poorest, will want to stake a claim to those resources.

Guinea police tear-gas protesters

Police clashed with protesters in Guinea's capital Monday, killing one person and injuring twenty others. Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets protesting high fuel prices. The government cut fuel prices by 21 percent over the weekend. Protesters claim the fall in prices should have been deeper. Since last July however global oil prices have fallen by 50 percent. Although confined to neighbourhoods outside the capital, the violence could spread. Widespread discontent with the government of dictator-president Lansana Conte means Guinea is particularly vulnerable to unrest. Early last year more than 130 protesters were shot dead by security forces during strike action designed to force out the government.

Bomb blasts injure 60 in Thailand

Three bomb blasts struck the southern Thai state of Narathiwat on Tuesday, injuring sixty people. No group has claimed responsibility, but police said separatist militants were behind the attacks. Officials have long blamed Muslim insurgents for the violence. Buddhist Thailand's Malay dominated provinces have endured an insurgency that has killed more than 2,700 people since 2004. Analysts claim that the insurgency is more complex than Thai officials admit, involving numerous factions and criminal gangs. Both Buddhists and Muslims associated with the State are often targeted.

Although small blasts are common, incidents on this scale remain rare. The explosions came a week after new Thai prime minister Somchai Wongsawat visited the Muslim-majority southern districts and told reporters that the five-year-long insurgency appeared to have eased. Military and diplomatic initiatives to put an end to the unrest have foundered repeatedly.

Pakistan warns US policy is "counter-productive"

Pakistan's president warned the new head of US Central Command that cross-border attacks by US forces into Pakistan were "counter-productive". In the most high-profile protest yet from Islamabad, President Asif Ali Zardari told General David Petraeus that such strikes were detrimental to the "war on terror". These comments mirror Prime Minster Yousef Raza Gilani's claim that unless the next US president halted missile strikes on insurgent targets in northwest Pakistan, it risked failure in its efforts to end militancy in the Muslim country. "No matter who the president of America will be, if he doesn't respect the sovereignty and integrity of Pakistan ... anti-America sentiments and anti-West sentiment will be there," said Gilani. In the last two months, the US has launched at least seventeen strikes on militant targets in Pakistan.

Zardari and Gilani's remarks underscore how repairing US-Pakistan relations will be high on the list of priorities for the next US president. They also reveal the difficulties faced by the United States and Pakistan as they try to combat rising militancy in the country. Relations between the two allies have cooled recently because of continued US cross-border air strikes.

Iraqi capital rocked by three explosions

Three bombs exploded in Baghdad Tuesday, killing at least thirteen people and wounding 35 others. Two attacks, at a bus depot and marketplace, targeted predominantly Shia neighbourhoods. The third, in central Baghdad, was aimed at the convoy of a Shia government official and former member of the Iraqi Governing Council, Ahmed Shiyaa al-Barak. Nine were injured in the attack, but there were no fatalities.

Bombings in the Iraqi capital have decreased markedly in the last year. However, these latest attacks follow two bombings on Monday which killed eight and wounded at least twenty others.

Europe's unrealistic expectations

In an open letter to the next occupant of the White House, Charles Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform called for a change of American direction. Europe was concerned, he wrote, at US failure to boldly commit to climate change initiatives, and the lack of US support for the International Criminal Court. Grant also hoped for the more restrained use of hard power after attacks on Iraq and Afghanistan. In short the letter called for a leader who would heal transatlantic relations, widened by excessive US unilateralism. "Dear George Bush," the letter began, dated January 2001.

Europe must be suffering from an acute case of political déjà vu right now; eight years after the end of Clinton's presidency the message from the "Old Continent" is depressingly familiar. Europeans expect the next American president to reorient US foreign policy, engaging seriously with multilateral institutions and forging close partnerships with Europe on a range of important issues, from curbing greenhouse emissions to curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Across the continent, excitement at the end of the Bush presidency is palpable. From inauguration countdowns on Facebook to the huge crowds Obama drew in Paris and Berlin, Europeans are looking forward to the next American presidency with relish. Implicit is the assumption that a change in American leadership equals a convergence of US and European policies. Optimists highlight Obama's lofty "citizen of the world" rhetoric or McCain's criticism of excessive "lone ranger" diplomacy. Yet the stark similarities between Charles Grants' letter and contemporary European criticism of the US should caution against such hopeful expectations.

Separatist terrorism strikes India's northeast

A series of bombs exploded across the eastern Indian state of Assam on Thursday. Between 12 and 18 blasts, the majority in the main city Guwahati, tore through crowded streets and markets. Casualty reports vary, suggesting that between 26 and 67 were killed. The coordinated blasts, which were detonated within one hour of each other, have led to widespread panic, chaos and lawlessness. No group has yet claimed responsibility.

The toD verdict: Intelligence officials are blaming these latest explosions on the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), a separatist militant group which has waged a long-running insurgency in the region. According to Assam police chief RN Mathur, "No other group can trigger so many blasts in so many places in such a coordinated fashion." Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here

In recent weeks security forces have launched a massive crackdown on the group's senior leadership. "Ulfa is striking back in a massive way by taking on soft targets," Mathur said.

ULFA has waged a war for independence in Assam, and the expulsion of non-Assamese people from the state, for over two decades. An effort to start peace talks between the rebels and the Indian government broke down in 2006. If ULFA is responsible, this latest attack serves to highlight the numerous ethnic and national fissures which fragment India's multi-cultural, multi-ethnic mosaic. India's northeast in particular is home to numerous armed separatist groups. It is estimated that more than 10,000 people have died in this region in the past decade.

Deadly car bombs hit Somaliland

A series of suicide car bombs exploded across northern Somaliland and Puntland on Wednesday. Reports indicate that at least 29 people were killed when five bombs ripped through key targets including the presidential palace, the Ethiopian consulate and UN offices, all within minutes of each other. Both regions had until now been largely spared the daily violence rocking southern and central Somalia.

Puntland's President Mohamoud Musa Hirsi Adde said the attacks were "organised from the same place and by the same people." Responsibility for the attacks is currently unclear, however most suspect Islamist insurgents, given the coordinated nature of the bombings and the targeting of Ethiopia. US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Jendayi Frazer said they bore the markings of al-Qaeda.

Jean Ping of the African Union noted they "came at a time of renewed efforts by IGAD, the AU and the United Nations to bring about lasting peace, security and reconciliation in Somalia." Regional leaders are currently meeting in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, to discuss the ongoing crisis in Somalia and the performance of the transitional federal government.

Suicide attack on Afghan government ministry

Three people were killed and nine injured when a suicide bomb ripped through an Afghan ministry in Kabul on Thursday. Two men using small arms fought police guards at the entrance to the Ministry of Culture and Information while a third gained entry to the building and detonated the bomb. The Taliban have claimed responsibility for the attack in statements to news agencies. Although security in the capital has improved, with attacks down by 50 per cent on last year, this incident is the latest "audacious" attack by Taliban militants. A number of high-profile incidents in the capital have demonstrated increasingly sophisticated tactics, such as the mixing of both suicide bombers and gunmen, which analysts believe is designed to gain maximum press coverage.

Congolese rebels declare ceasefire

Rebels led by General Nkunda fighting government forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo have declared a unilateral cease-fire after a four day offensive in North Kivu province. Forces of the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP) were just 25 kilometres from the major city of Goma when they declared a halt to fighting late yesterday. A statement signed by Nkunda said the intention was "not to panic the population of Goma as well as those who are in displaced persons camps in the immediate environs of the city". Despite the ceasefire, chaotic scenes have erupted in the city with reports that Congolese soldiers are out of control. Tens of thousands of people have fled the city contributing to an already dire humanitarian situation. According to the UN, fighting since 28 August has pushed the number of displaced civilians in North Kivu to more than one million.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that the conflict "is creating a humanitarian crisis of catastrophic dimensions." He also suggested that the conflict threatens the entire region, referring to reports that Rwandan soldiers were involved in the fighting against Congolese government forces, and that heavy weapons fire had taken place across the DRC-Rwanda border.

Collapse of the Moro peace process: disaster and opportunity

Roughly 300 people have been killed and over 650,000 displaced in more than two months of fighting between Philippine security forces and renegade Moro Islamic Liberation Front fighters. The escalation of violence follows the Supreme Court's decision to block the implementation of a Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain between the government and the MILF in August.

According to a report by Amnesty International released on Wednesday, the suspension of peace talks between the government and Moro rebels in Mindanao threatens the lives of "hundreds of thousands of civilians." Another report by the Asian Centre for Human Rights concludes that the collapse of the peace talks may provide an opportunity for both parties to address inherent flaws within the peace process. According to the report, the indigenous Lumad people of Mindanao, who never resorted to armed rebellion, were never included in the peace process with the Moros. If the MOA-AD had been signed on 5 August 2008, it would have meant the loss of at least one million hectares of Ancestral Domains belonging to these indigenous peoples. The non-inclusion is not the only a flaw in the peace process but constitutes a clear violation of the Indigenous Peoples Rights Act of 1997.

Second "white supremacist" plot to kill Obama

A neo-nazi plot to assassinate Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama has been uncovered by federal agents. Paul Schlesselman and Daniel Cowart appeared in a US court on Monday after being arrested last week in Crockett County, Tennessee. They planned to rob a gun store and then carry out a killing spree at a predominantly African-American high school, shooting 88 black people and decapitating another 14. Their final act of violence would be the attempted assassination of presidential candidate Barack Obama.

The toD Verdict: Although analysts have concluded that the plot was amateurish and the threat to Obama in particular, not very credible, this is already the second assassination scare involving the Democratic presidential candidate. The first occurred on the eve of the Democrats' national convention in Denver in July. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here


Both scares have involved racist, neo-fascist groups. Obama told reporters Tuesday that "these kinds of hate groups" had been marginalised by the election campaign and were not part of America's future. Obama's campaign has been based largely on the transcendence of outdated racial politics and divisions. Ironic then that the possibility of his campaign's success and an African-American president, has shone a spotlight on the dark neo-nazi subcultures at the margins of US society.

Extreme far-right groups such as The Order enjoyed a heyday in the 1980s but have since declined, lacking leadership and direction. Yet numerous neo-Fascist groups remain active in the US, pursuing an agenda that militantly opposes immigrants, minority ethnic groups, homosexuals and the federal government. According to Mark Potok who directs the Southern Poverty Law Center which monitors hate groups, many white supremacists "feel they are losing their country right before their eyes...What we are seeing at this moment is the beginning of a real backlash." The danger should not be underestimated. A comprehensive FBI report published earlier this year highlighted the threat from domestic, home-grown extremists, including far right groups which often espouse "racist and racial supremacy and embrace antigovernment, antiregulatory" platforms. As the report points out, the greater threat to US domestic security arises, not from jihadist terrorism, but from fascist, right wing groups. The Southern Poverty Law Centre claims that since the 1995 Oklahoma bombing the radical Right has produced some 60 terrorist plots.

UN attacks advancing Congolese rebels

UN peacekeeping forces, including helicopter gunships and armoured units, engaged rebel forces in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Monday. Tutsi rebels led by renegade General Laurent Nkunda launched a heavy attack over the weekend, forcing the Congolese army to retreat. UN forces intervened to prevent rebel troops from advancing on Goma, capital of North Kivu province. "We can't allow population centres to be threatened," Alan Doss, head of the UN mission, said. "We had to engage."

The intervention by UN forces is set against a backdrop of rising local anger directed at UN peacekeepers. Hundreds of protesters attacked the local UN compound Monday, frustrated at the inability of the world body to halt the rebel offensive. Two protesters were reportedly shot dead by UN peacekeepers during the attack.

Transatlantic rift over Afghan policy

Is it time for NATO to leave Afghanistan? That is the question causing a transatlantic divide in opinion. A recently leaked French diplomatic cable between the French ambassador to Afghanistan, Francois Fitou, and his British colleague, Sherard Cowper-Coles, described the security situation in Afghanistan as "deteriorating". The two concluded that NATO's presence was exacerbating the insurgency and that the only realistic policy would be to cultivate an "acceptable dictator." The leak follows comments by the departing commander of British forces in Afghanistan, Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, who claimed that defeating the Taliban was "neither feasible nor supportable." Just two days later the French chief of the defense staff, General Jean-Louis Georgelin, concurred with this assessment. The emerging British and French position stands in stark contrast to US assessments. At the recent NATO summit in Budapest, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates called for an Iraq-style "surge", and called on NATO members to provide more troops for missions in Afghanistan. The Americans have already planned the deployment of 8,000 extra troops for next year.

Militants killed in Kashmir battle

Five militants were shot dead in Indian-administered Kashmir. Indian troops reported that a fire fight took place near the Metwan area in Kishtwar district. The dead militants were identified as members of the pro-Pakistan group Hizbul Mujahideen.

Meanwhile, much of Indian-administered Kashmir has been crippled by a separatist strike to mark the 61st anniversary of the Indian army's arrival in the state. In recent months, Kashmiri separatists have held numerous non-violent protests against Indian rule. According to Muzamil Jameel, a new generation of Kashmiri's are embracing peaceful protest rather than armed struggle. The threat of rising tensions in the region is ever present however. On Sunday police fired on protesters in the city of Baramulla, killing one and injuring at least three others.

China condemns Sudan oil killings

China condemned the killing of five of its citizens in Sudan as a terrorist act on Tuesday. The five were among nine Chinese oil workers seized in Kordofan, near Darfur, more than a week ago. Sudan claims that kidnappers from the Darfur rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) shot dead the five oil workers on Monday. JEM has denied any involvement, with diplomats suggesting the captors were probably aggrieved local tribesmen aiming for a share of the region's oil revenues. Reports indicate a note was released by the captors demanding a settlement which included a fairer distribution of oil production. This is the third such abduction in a year in this oil-producing region.

China has invested heavily in Sudan as it searches for natural resources to power its surging economy. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu called on the Sudanese government to protect Chinese residents and property.

Al-Qaeda websites attacked

Key websites used by al-Qaeda-linked operatives have been closed for the past six weeks. The al-Ekhlas, al-Buraq and al-Firdaws websites are all linked to al-Fajr the propaganda wing of al-Qaeda. All have been out of action since shortly before 11 September this year. Previous attempts to block al-Qaeda sites have all failed, with many of the sites suffering occasional glitches but re-emerging soon thereafter.

The toD Verdict: The internet is a central and increasingly important tool for al-Qaeda, providing a forum for recruitment, training and propaganda. According to Naval Postgraduate School professor John Arquilla, jihadist groups "don't exist without the web." Analysts and jihadists alike have therefore concluded that the closure of these internet forums must be one element of a broad, coordinated western strategy to defeat al-Qaeda. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here

A counter theory has emerged however, highlighting deep divisions between violent jihadist movements. This theory holds that the websites are casualties of sectarian cyber warfare between rival Shia and Sunni groups. In September, dozens of Shia Internet sites were reportedly attacked by Wahhabi hackers. Subsequently, www.alarabiya.net was hacked, displaying a message which read "If the attacks against Shia Internet sites continue, none of your Internet sites will be secure any longer."

Analysts say that the closure of these sites will significantly reduce the capacity of al-Qaeda to distribute its propaganda. Many other extremist websites remain operational, however, and the states working to combat radical militancy should recognise that cyberspace is a field of battle just as important as more traditional terrains.

Pakistani school hit in missile attack

Two missiles destroyed half of a religious school near Miranshah in North Waziristan early Thursday. Witnesses claim that at least eight students were killed by the attack. According to reports, the school lies in close proximity to the residence of Jalaluddin Haqqani, a fugitive Taliban leader. It is widely suspected that the airstrike was launched from a pilotless US drone. Haqqani's residential complex was previously targeted in a missile attack which killed more than 10 people. Recent weeks have witnessed an increase in US missile attacks against suspected militants in Pakistan, creating tensions between the two "war on terror" allies. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has said he will not tolerate violations of his country's territory. The latest missile attack comes hours after the Pakistani parliament unanimously adopted a resolution calling on the government to defend its sovereignty.

Tamil Tiger attack on merchant vessels

Two merchant ships carrying supplies to northern Sri Lanka have been attacked by Tamil Tigers. According to the naval officials, the vessels were carrying humanitarian aid to the Jaffna peninsula when they were targeted by three explosives-laden boats. Sailors opened fire, capturing one of the boats and destroying the two others. The Jaffna Peninsula is situated in the far north of Sri Lanka.  The attack comes as government forces continue their offensive in the north, attacking the Tamil Tiger's last bases after capturing their eastern strongholds in July 2007. The army is currently within 2 kilometres of the rebel headquarters in Kilinochchi and aim to crush the rebels and end their fight for a separate state for the ethnic Tamil minority.

"Triangle of Death" handed over to Iraqi military

US forces handed control of security in the province of Babil to Iraqi forces on Thursday. The province south of Baghdad is the 12th of Iraq's 18 provinces to witness the handover of primary responsibility for security to Iraqi forces. However, the move is significant. The province includes an area which became known as the "triangle of death". According to Lieutenant-General Lloyd Austin, commander of U.S. combat forces in Iraq, the province was experiencing over twenty attacks per week. Within a year this has fallen by eighty percent, thanks in large part to the Sunni Awakening Councils. He called the event a "milestone for Iraq in maturing as a sovereign and democratic nation." At a handover ceremony in the provincial capital Hilla, Iraq's National Security adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie said that Iraqis will also take control of Wasit province within days. "This is proof that our military forces have reached self-sufficiency, and can now be depended upon to preserve internal security," Rubaie said.

Tensions in South Ossetia threaten to boil over

Tensions in the Caucasus rose on Thursday when Georgia claimed Russia has deployed as many as 7,000 soldiers in the separatist region of South Ossetia. Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili claimed that an additional 2000 soldiers have entered the region. Tbilisi says it has monitored "suspicious movements" by the Russian military, raising fears of further military action following a five day war between the two neighbours in August. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied the troop build-up, claiming that Georgia has repeatedly deployed special forces near the rebel regions thereby violating a ceasefire agreement.

Chaotic scenes during the trial of Turkey's "deep state"

Chaos erupted yesterday during a trial of 86 people who stand accused of planning to overthrow Turkey's government. A panel of judges quickly adjourned proceedings after the court was overwhelmed by sympathizers who sought to disrupt the trial. The trial later resumed with only the jailed suspects and their lawyers.

The defendants, including former army officers, a best-selling author and an ultra-nationalist lawyer, are accused of conspiring to destabilize Turkey with attacks ahead of a planned coup in 2009. The 2,455-page indictment holds the group responsible for a number of violent attacks including the 2006 assault on Turkey's administrative court that killed a judge. Some suspects face lesser charges, including possessing explosives, obtaining classified documents and provoking military disobedience. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here


Most of the arrests occurred after a police raid on the home of a retired noncommissioned officer in Istanbul last year.

The toD verdict: The trial exposes widening divisions in Turkey between the country's moderate Islamist ruling party and its stridently secular foes, backed by the military. Conflict between the two has been ongoing for several years, but eased in July when the Constitutional Court decided against disbanding the ruling AK party, which was accused of steering the country away from its constitutional secularism. Tensions are likely to be revived by this trial, and with rival demonstrators gathering outside the courthouse, the potential for violence and political instability is high.

According to the government however, this trial is a historic opportunity to ensure Turkey's long-term political development. It has framed the trial as a chance to rein in a shadowy renegade network with links to the military, commonly known as the "deep state". Human rights campaigners agree, welcoming the trial as an opportunity to strengthen the country's democracy. Turkey has suffered four coups since the country was established. Glimpses of state involvement with the criminal underworld have been exposed in the past. In 1996, a former police chief and a mob boss who were sworn enemies in public died together when their Mercedes crashed on a highway.

Nevertheless, the success and legitimacy of the trial may be undermined by accusations of political interference. Critics accuse the government of turning the trial into a witchhunt targeting secularist opponents. One defendant spoke out against the charges, calling the trial a politically-inspired charade. "An imaginary group has been invented," Muzaffer Tekin, a retired army captain, told the judges. "I see this as a political plot."

Trade route opens across divided Kashmir

A trade route opened on Tuesday across the de facto border dividing the Indian and Pakistani halves of the disputed state of Kashmir. Sixteen Indian trucks crossed the border on Tuesday morning. Fourteen Pakistani trucks are expected to make the reverse journey this afternoon. Although limited to 21 approved items and to only two days a week, the reopening of a trade route after sixty years is a historic development. The trade link follows other confidence-building measures which have been introduced in Kashmir in recent years, including the opening of rail and bus links. Relations between India and Pakistan have thawed in recent years, but they remain fragile. It is hoped this latest move will bolster the four-year-old peace agreement, which has recently come under strain. Violence broke out across the Line of Control earlier this year as India accused Pakistan once more of allowing militants to sneak across the border.

Suicide bomber strikes German convoy

A suicide bomber struck a convoy of NATO troops in Kunduz in northern Afghanistan, killing at least two soldiers and five children. Isaf has refused to name the nationality of the troops until it can notify their home country. The governor of Kunduz province, Mohammad Omar, said the Isaf soldiers killed were German. Germany has about 3,000 soldiers in northern Afghanistan. Attacks have been rare in the relatively peaceful north. However, violence has surged this year, with the Taliban expanding the landscape of their activities. Even Kabul has witnessed increasing insecurity. Earlier yesterday, a female foreign aid worker was shot dead in the capital.

Pakistani legislators shrink from "Pakistan's War"

Pakistani politicians are deeply divided over how to tackle the rising tide of Al Qaeda and Taliban militancy. A parliamentary session designed to forge a national policy to tackle Pakistan's extremists was dominated by calls for dialogue with the Taliban. In an interview last week, Nawaz Sharif, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-N asked, "What is wrong with talking?" Others condemned a war foisted on Pakistan by the United States.

The Pakistani military is currently waging a large offensive against militants in the regions bordering Afghanistan. Suicide attacks have spread across the country, culminating in the devastating bombing of the Islamabad Marriott hotel last month. Despite the situation, the debate has revealed the difficult situation facing Mr. Zardari as he tries to focus Pakistan's full attention on the threat. The tone of debate during the session suggests the governing Pakistan Peoples Party may be unable to produce an "appropriate resolution," said Sardar Aseff Ahmed Ali, a senior member of the party and a former foreign minister.

Palestinian olive harvesters attacked

Palestinians harvesting their olives in the occupied territories have been violently attacked by Israeli settlers. Millions of olive trees across the West Bank constitute an important sector of the Palestinian economy, providing a livelihood to many Palestinians. Radical elements among Israeli settlers have a long history of interfering with the Palestinian olive harvest. With over 20 reported clashes so far, this year's harvest was one of the most violent in recent memory. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has condemned the violence as a "dangerous escalation" and criticised Israel for failing to stop the attacks. These recent tensions come against a backdrop rising violence between Palestinians and settlers in the West Bank this year.

Japan extends "war on terror" mission

Japan's lower house of parliament voted on Monday to extend a naval mission in the Indian Ocean. The controversial military operation, due to expire in January, provides fuel and logistical support in the Indian Ocean to coalition forces in Afghanistan. The bill, which extends the operation for one more year, will likely be rejected in the opposition-controlled upper house. The more powerful lower house can override the rejection however. Last November the mission was temporarily halted under similar circumstances. The mission is a highly emotive topic in Japan, with many people claiming it breaches the country's pacifist constitution.

British government considers "Big Brother" database

The British government is considering setting up a "big brother" database of all phone and e-mail traffic in the country, its senior law enforcement official said Wednesday. The database, just one of several ideas being considered would form part of a high-tech strategy to fight terrorism and crime. The suggestion comes after the police and security services warned that criminals were becoming increasingly sophisticated in their use of technology.Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here

The toD verdict: British Home Secretary Jacqui Smith argued yesterday that technological change has created a complex, fragmented online world: "The communications revolution has been rapid..." she told a conference at the Institute of Public Policy Research, "and the way in which we intercept and collect communications data needs to change too."

But the question of which measures the police and security services require to prevent future terrorist attacks raises a central theme in the domestic war on terror: how can the expansion of state power be balanced against the civil liberties people are accustomed to? It is a question facing all democratic societies and, according to the British parliament, one that the government is not always answering correctly. Earlier this week the House of Lords defeated plans to increase from 28 to 42 days the length of time terrorist suspects may be held without charge.

The government should expect stiff opposition from the proposals. Emboldened by their recent 42-day success, politicians, civil liberties groups, and Labour MPs have already condemned the new idea. Chris Huhne, the domestic affairs spokesman for the Liberal Democrats, accused the government of devising "Orwellian plans for a vast database of our private communications."

British soldier dies in Helmand

A British soldier from D Squadron Household Cavalry Regiment has been killed in an explosion in Helmand province, Afghanistan. The soldier's death which occurred on Wednesday during a routine patrol brings the number of British soldiers killed on operations in Afghanistan since 2001 to 121.

In separate news, the German parliament is expected to extend the Bundeswehr's mandate in Afghanistan on Thursday. Roughly 4,500 German troops, concentrated in the former safe area of northern Afghanistan, face a deteriorating security situation. Germany's parliament is likely to extend the mandate for the German mission by 14 months instead of the usual 12, bridging a gap caused by German and Afghanistan elections in autumn 2009.

Senior Al Qaeda in Iraq commander killed

Al Qaeda in Iraq's second in command has been killed in Mosul, according to the US military. Moroccan-born Abu Qaswarah or Abu Sara was known to have ties to senior Al Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan and Pakistan. US forces have launched many attacks against suspects in Mosul this year. The city remains an island of Al Qaeda strength. Abu Qaswarah's death, if confirmed, would provide a further boost for the US military this week. Two days ago another senior Al Qaeda in Iraq commander was killed. Mahir al-Zubaydi was said to have played a key role in planning some of the worst atrocities in Iraq over the past few years.

Meanwhile, Iraqi leaders are examining a new draft security pact. The latest draft requires foreign troops to pull out by June 2011 unless invited to stay by Iraqi leaders. It would also allow Iraqi courts to try US soldiers accused of serious crimes committed while off-duty in Iraq. The draft, which must be ratified by the Iraqi parliament to take effect, could succeed or fail at the hands of Iran. The commander of US military forces in Iraq has accused Iraq's neighbour of trying to influence the vote, bribing Iraqi legislators into rejecting the security deal. Gen. Ray Odierno told the Washington Post that although he lacked definitive proof, many intelligence reports suggested "pay offs" were being made.

Terrorist Youtube offline

Aqsatube, a youtube clone focusing on Palestinian militant videos, has been taken offline by French hosting firm OVH. The website mimicked the mainstream video site in almost every way, allowing users to watch clips, upload their own videos, and see what others were watching. Content included masked men firing rockets to the sounds of martial Arabic music, and videos recorded by suicide bombers before they carried out their attacks. Aqsatube is just one of many similar sites, some of which appear to be produced by Hamas, a claim the Palestinian political group denies. The proliferation of these websites underlines the growing importance of the internet to jihadist militant groups; recruiting, training and propaganda are all handled online. According to Naval Postgraduate School professor John Arquilla, "They don't exist without the web".

Pakistani Taliban wants to talk

Taliban militants in Pakistan's tribal areas say they are willing to hold unconditional talks with the government. "We are also willing to lay down our arms, once the military ceases operations against us" said Maulvi Omar, a spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban. The army recently launched major military offensives against insurgents in the Federally Administered Tribal Regions. On Wednesday, Pakistani forces reportedly pounded hideouts in a tribal region near the Afghan border, killing 16 Taliban linked rebels.

Previous FATA operations have been prematurely halted by truces, allowing militants to regroup. Although the army has orders to fight until they control the entire area, Pakistan's government has said that it is willing to talk to the militants once they lay down their arms.

Bomb blast in Nepal's south

A woman and two infants, all members of the same family, have been killed by a bomb explosion in Nepal. The blast occurred in the south-east of the country, a region which has witnessed constant ethnic unrest despite the end of Nepal's civil war nearly two years ago. Two separate militant groups claimed responsibility. Both say they are fighting for the rights of the traditionally marginalised Madhesi ethnic group. Many extreme Madhesi factions have emerged in recent years. The new Maoist government has invited the groups for talks, however the bomb blast shattered a ceasefire which most of the groups had declared throughout a recent two week feast.

Rwanda accused of sending troops into DRC

Rwanda has been accused of sending its troops across the border into the Democratic Republic of Congo and threatening the eastern city of Goma. Reports suggest the Congolese rebel leader Laurent Nkunda, backed by Rwandan soldiers, crossed the border three days ago. UN peacekeepers have reported heavy fighting around an army base at the border village of Rumangabo, near Goma.

The toD verdict: Fighting resumed in August between Nkunda's forces and the Congolese army, despite a peace deal signed in January. Last week, the rebel leader announced he would escalate his 4-year-old revolt. Nkunda has led a rebellion in North Kivu in defence of Congo's minority Tutsi community which has been terrorized by Rwandan rebels known as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). Formed from ethnic Hutu extremists, who fled to DR Congo after the Rwandan genocide of 1994, Nkunda claims the FDLR are supported by the DRC's army. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here


Rwanda agrees. According to Rwanda's UN Ambassador Joseph Nsengimana, only last week Kigali sent a letter to the DRC citing reports of collusion between Congolese troops and the FDLR. He denied that any of its troops are inside the DR Congo. However, Rwanda has twice invaded its neighbour on similar pretexts.  

It is clear that the presence of FDLR rebels in DR Congo lies at the heart of years of recent unrest in the region, including this fresh humanitarian crisis which is brewing, with more than 100,000 people already fleeing the clashes. The DRC government has said it is ready to disarm the Hutu rebels, and should make good on this promise. Doing so would greatly improve regional prospects for peace, security and stability.

Pakistan troops kill 20 militants in tribal area

At least twenty Al Qaeda-linked militants, eight of them foreigners, were killed in Bajaur region Wednesday. Pakistani helicopter gunships hit rebel hideouts in a tribal region near the Afghan border.

Pakistani troops launched a major offensive in the region against Islamic militants in August triggering the Red Cross to classify the area as a war zone. Earlier this week Pakistan ordered the deportation of 50,000 Afghan refugees which they claim are linked to militant groups.

The Pakistani military says more than 1,000 rebel fighters have been killed since it launched its offensive in Bajaur in early August, including Al Qaeda's operational commander in the region, the Egyptian Abu Saeed Al-Masri.

Suicide bomb kills 10 in Iraq

Ten people were killed and twenty seven wounded on Wednesday after a suicide bomber blew herself up in the capital of Diyala Province, Iraq. This attack, near the Court of Appeals building in Baquba, was the seventeenth by a woman in Diyala this year. A police official speculated that the bomber's failed target appeared to have been Uday al-Khadran, a leading member of the Shia party the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. Inter-communal tensions run high in Diyala; Shia power in the province is deeply resented by the majority Sunni population.

The attack came a day after Iraqi security forces arrested a woman accused of heading up the recruitment of female suicide bombers.

North Korea prepares missile test

South Korea's military is on high alert today. Local newspapers have reported that North Korea is preparing an unprecedented mass test-launch of ten short-range missiles from the island navy base of Chodo.

Analysts are speculating whether the incident is a response to the South's current armed forces celebrations, or may be related to the anniversary of North Korea's ruling communist party, on Friday. Others argue the sabre-rattling is a deliberate tactic used by Pyongyang in its dispute with the US over nuclear disarmament. On Wednesday, South Korea's top military official, Gen Kim Tae-young, said he believed the North was trying to develop a nuclear warhead to fit on a missile. North Korea tested a nuclear device in October 2006, but it was not believed that any of the bombs were small enough to be fitted onto a missile.

Car bomb explodes at Islamabad Police HQ

A suspected suicide car bombing demolished a building at an Islamabad police headquarters today. Casualty figures are currently unclear. The attack happened as intelligence and military chiefs were briefing lawmakers on the campaign against Islamist extremists, in a rare hearing at the parliament building about three kilometres from the explosion. Pakistan faces a rising tide of militant activity. Less than three weeks ago, a suicide truck bombing at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad killed 60 people in one of the worst terror attacks in Pakistan's history.

Yom Kippur riots in Acre

Inter-communal riots broke out in Acre today after an Israeli Arab man drove his car during the Yom Kippur religious holiday. The driver, who claimed he was simply returning to a property he owned in the East of the city, was attacked by youths who said he was making noise intentionally. In much of Israel it is considered offensive to drive during Yom Kippur, a Jewish day of fasting. Rioting erupted between Arabs and Jews, with hundreds of people taking to the streets and damaging cars and shops. The city has a highly mixed population. "We will deal with all the rioters and those who take the law into their own hands with an iron fist," the head of the Acre police station, Chief Superintendent Avi Edri.

Pakistan gets tough with Afghan refugees

Pakistan ordered the deportation today of about 50,000 Afghan refugees from Bajaur in the restive belt of "tribal agencies" along the border with Afghanistan. "The orders have been issued to the tribal police to push all of them out," Abdul Haseeb, a local government official, said on Monday, adding that their homes would be bulldozed to keep them from returning. An estimated 20,000 refugees had returned to Afghanistan in recent weeks. Thousands more have moved to other parts of Pakistan.

The toD verdict: Government officials have long accused Afghan refugees of links to extremist armed groups. "We have reports of their links with militants and their involvement in terrorist activities," said Safirullah Wazir, the government's top administrator in Bajaur. Critics have suggestedthe move unfairly scapegoats the refugees, affording the government the convenient impression of taking action. However, the move may also signal a new genuinely hard-line approach to the growing militancy problem. The army recently launched a military offensive against insurgents in the Federally Administered Tribal Regions. Previous FATA offensives were halted prematurely by truces which allowed militants to regroup. This time the army has orders to fight until they control the entire area. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here


The fresh resolve of the Pakistani government hints not only at mounting US pressure, but also at a confluence of domestic factors providing a unique window of opportunity to address the security situation. Local FATA tribesmen have recently formed militias to face down destabilising foreign elements in their land. Meanwhile, devastating suicide bombings such as the blast at Islamabad's Marriott Hotel last month have increased public opinion in favour of stern action in the border regions.

In a bid to build political consensus, the government has convened a joint session of the upper and lower houses of parliament on Wednesday to discuss the situation. Could an alliance of political unity, public support and heavy military action prove the turning point of Pakistan's troubles?

Iraqi minorities face political marginalisation

Roughly 75 Christians and other peaceful protesters gathered at a church in Baghdad on Monday to demand a restoration of measures which would ensure minority political representation. A draft version of the provincial elections law Skip to next paragraphallowed for provincial council seats for Christians, Yazidis and Shabeks, but it was dropped before Parliament approved it on 24 September. There are signs however that the article may be put back into the law, which must be approved by a three-member presidential panel before it can take effect. The panel has indicated it would recommend to Parliament that the measure dealing with minorities be reinstated. Even so, the incident reflects the precarious state of Christian communities in the country; more than a million Christians used to live in Iraq, a number that has now nearly halved.

Twenty dead in Pakistan blast

A suicide bomber killed at least eighteen people and injured more than sixty others at the home of a lawmaker in Bhakkar in eastern Pakistan on Monday. The attacker attempted to force his way into the house of opposition politician Rashid Akbar Khan Nawani. According to police reports Nawani was injured but survived. The suicide bombing was the third attack this week aimed at a prominent Pakistani politician. Pakistan has been plagued by suicide attacks, killing about 1,200 people in the last year, which many believe are in reaction to the government's moves against Islamist extremists. However, there is speculation this latest attack was motivated by sectarianism. Nawani is a member of Pakistan's minority Shiite Muslim community, which some militant groups regard as a threat in this predominantly Sunni country.

Bomb blasts as Iraq and US discuss military pact

Two blasts occurred near Baghdad's Green Zone on Tuesday moments before a joint US-Iraqi press conference involving US Deputy Secretary of State Joseph Negroponte. One report claims the blasts were caused by two mortar bombs falling close to the foreign ministry. A second said the blasts were caused by car bombs. Mr Negroponte is in Iraq for talks on the handover of security to Iraqi forces. At the press conference, Iraq's Foreign Minister said Washington and Baghdad are close to a deal to keep US troops in this country next year but it will take "bold political decisions" to overcome the final hurdles.

Seventeen dead in Mogadishu clash

At least seventeen people have been killed in the Somali capital Mogadishu on Tuesday during fighting between government and anti-government forces. Islamist insurgents fired mortars at the presidential palace from Bakara market. Guards and their Ethiopian allies responded by firing shells at the market. Reports indicate 3 soldiers and 12 civilians were killed. The deaths are just the latest example of rising violence in Mogadishu, which has displaced almost 40,000 people in the last few weeks. The UN has started to pull out its foreign staff from Baidoa, where Somalia's parliament is based. According to Human Right Watch, Somalia is the most ignored tragedy in the world today.

African governance improving

Governance in nearly two-thirds of sub-Saharan African countries has improved according to the new Ibrahim index. Funded by Mo Ibrahim, an entrepreneur and philanthropist, the index is a comprehensive survey of political participation, human rights and the rule of law, transparency, corruption, development and economic opportunity. Based on data from 2006, Mauritius is the best-governed out of 48 countries, Liberia was considered the most improved and Somalia is ranked last. "Obscured by many of the headlines of the past few months, the real story coming out of Africa is that governance performance across a large majority of African countries is improving," said Ibrahim.

Kenya releases 8 victims of African rendition

Eight Kenyan men deported to Ethiopia and jailed as terror suspects for more than a year have returned to Kenya. Their release comes just a few days after a report from Human Rights Watch which highlighted the victims of the 2007 Horn of Africa rendition program. Around 90 people fleeing Ethiopia's offensive in Somalia were arrested by Kenyan authorities and then unlawfully rendered to Ethiopia in early 2007, where they effectively disappeared. Reports suggest that a Kenyan human rights lawyer is to encourage the men to sue the Kenyan government for deporting them in the first place.

US Senate approves controversial nuclear deal with India

Congress gave final approval Wednesday night to a landmark agreement between the United States and India permitting civilian nuclear trade between the two countries. A vote in the Senate, passed 86-13, was the last legislative hurdle in a process that began with a 2005 agreement. The deal ends a three-decade ban on US nuclear trade with New Delhi which was inaugurated after India tested a nuclear weapon in 1974. It will give India access to US civilian nuclear technology and fuel in return for inspections of its civilian, but not military, nuclear facilities. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.

Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here


The toD verdict: Hailed as a coup for both India and the US, the agreement's regional implications are less favourable.

Changing the nuclear rules for India may make Pakistan more insecure. Like India, Pakistan never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (unlike Iran, North Korea, Libya, Israel and South Africa). Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani responded soon after the Congressional vote: "Pakistan will now make efforts for a civil nuclear deal and they (the world community) will have to accommodate us," indicating Islamabad may seek a similar arrangement with China. Despite an upcoming round of peace talks, relations between the two countries were strained after India accused Pakistan's intelligence services of participating in the July bombing of its embassy in Kabul.

India's second string of bomb attacks in a week

Serial bomb explosions ripped through India's remote northeastern state of Tripura on Wednesday, killing four and injuring about 80, authorities said. The prime suspect is the Indian Mujahedeen group, which was connected to attacks in Gujarat earlier this year, and last November in Uttar Pradesh.

The attacks are further confirmation of the growing terrorist threat facing the world's largest democracy. Two motorcycle bombs exploded in Gujarat and Maharashtra in western India on Monday night, killing four people and wounding several others. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently acknowledged "vast gaps" in intelligence on terror networks operating in the country. Meanwhile the opposition BJP has unveiled its campaign platform for forthcoming national elections. Concentrating on domestic security, the theme signals that politics in India is increasingly pegged to terrorism and counter-terrorism.

British anti-terror law could face EU opposition

A controversial law to give British police the power to detain terrorism suspects for up to 42 days without charge has come under attack from Europe's leading human rights organization. The Council of Europe issued two reports Wednesday questioning whether the proposed law breached European rights conventions. One report concluded that the bill could "lead to arbitrariness, in breach of ... right to liberty and security and right to a fair trial."

The bill, currently working its way through parliament, provoked a fierce debate between proponents of extended detention and civil libertarians. Recently criticised by the United Nations Human Rights Committee, the law could be nullified if a case challenging it is brought before the European Court on Human Rights in Strasbourg.

Petraeus sees dark times ahead

General David H. Petraeus, interviewed in London this week, gave a bleak assessment of the fight against insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan. "[T]he going may be tougher before it gets easier," he said. Although some members of the Taliban have come over to the government's side in recent years, the size of the insurgency has swelled since 2006. A recent UN report detailed rising civilian casualties as a result of the ongoing conflict in the country.

Petraeus is due to take up his new post as commander of all American forces in the middle east and Afghanistan on later this month. Credited with reducing the violence in Iraq, he is hoping to replicate that success in Afghanistan, including engaging other countries in the region. The president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, has said he is seeking help from Saudi Arabia to organise talks with elements of the Taliban.

General David McKiernan, the top US military commander in Afghanistan echoed Petraeus' assessment on Wednesday, saying that more troops and other aid was urgently required.

Rendition in east Africa

A new report from Human Rights Watch claims that at least 10 victims of the 2007 Horn of Africa rendition program still languish in Ethiopian jails, with the whereabouts of several others also unknown. Around 90 people fleeing Ethiopia's offensive in Somalia were arrested by Kenyan authorities and then unlawfully rendered to Ethiopia in early 2007, where they effectively disappeared. The report details US government complicity in the renditions, with several of the detained claiming they were interrogated by US officials in Addis Ababa. The report is released on the day that America's new Africa Command officially launches. Despite a professed focus on soft power, critics are concerned about a growing American military presence on the continent, particularly one that appears overly focused on issues of terrorism. 

This week's editor

Heather McRobie


Heather McRobie is a regular contributor to 50.50

Syndicate content