The sudden assertion of human criteria within a dehumanising framework of political manipulation can be like a flash of lightning illuminating a dark landscape
The sudden assertion of human criteria within a dehumanising framework of political manipulation can be like a flash of lightning illuminating a dark landscape
NavigationThe World
Our writers |
![]() |
Bathtub Basics? Climate change politics for simpletons.
John Sterman & Linda Booth Sweeneys Bathtub analogy of the science of climate change is nonsense, and strictly for the birds.
Why? Because, if scientists, climatologists, environmentalists, or anyone else who would like to stabilise the earths climate, back to some stable pre-industrial climate would have to firstly - stabilise the Sun. (1)
Global warming happens during times of high levels of solar activity. Solar heat that penetrates the earths atmosphere and warms the surface is hardly mentioned. Nothing is mentioned about the rotation of the earth, and the way it affects the climate. The words Sun and solar do not even appear in their article. In fact, their Bathtub analogy is bogus science at best, worst; it would be worthless as a guide to policymaking.
Read on:
Climate Change Made Easy - It's the Sun. By Bob Foster. The Australian Geologists - 2004
http://www.sepp.org/weekwas/2005/Mar.%205.htm
Submitted on Mon, 2005-05-09 21:25
Re: Bathtub Basics? Climate change politics for simpletons.
The problem is not that global warming occurs. It occurs naturally; every few dozen thousand years or so, the Earth undergoes another Ice Age. The problem is that we're massively accelerating it. What would naturally (by process of solar heating) occur sometime around the year 10000 is becoming a threatening prospect in the near future. Humanity can adjust to a gradual climate change that takes place over several millenia. We cannot so easily adjust to one whose consequences occur within a single year.
Re: Bathtub Basics? Climate change politics for simpletons.
And why is everyone so obsessed with the evils of global warming? Why can not anyone come to the obvious conclusion that a slight warming of this earth would do us a world of good?
Re: Bathtub Basics? Climate change politics for simpletons.
We have a slight warming - around 15 degrees Celsius - and as you say, it does us 'good' in that without this, we and life as we experience it wouldn't be extant.
I read what you say as the entirely sensible perception that, "a little of what you fancy does you good." No evil out of the ordinary is seen, heard or done here, [perhaps].
However, the rising concentration of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is now causing this 'slight' warming to increase. The future projections of change go beyond the 'slight-ness' of the status-quo to levels above 'normal', out of the 'ordinary', to accelerated rates of energy exchange in the bio/geo/hydro-sphere that are manifest as increasingly violent and damaging 'weather-events' and changing climatic trends.
The obvious conclusion pertinent here is the dangers we face as these trends continue, if emissions continue to rise and drive them.
Many people are now rightly concerned about this.
Aubrey
Re: Bathtub Basics? Climate change politics for simpletons.
That's what I mean. Projections.
Ignore the obvious.
Re: Bathtub Basics? Climate change politics for simpletons.
This is fun.
I am going to make four assumptions about your life/style.
One by one, these are either correct or in error.
Will you please indicate which - if any - are correct, and which - if any - are wrong.
You can say why as an optional extra . . .
1. You have ridden above twenty miles per hour in a car.
2. The car had no brakes.
3. The reason for this was that brakes were not needed.
4. The reason that brakes weren't need was because accidents were presumed to impossible or impossible to avoid.
Aubrey
Re: Bathtub Basics? Climate change politics for simpletons.
???????????????????????????????????????????????????
Are you comparing living in our climate to driving a car?????????????????
I would never get in any car if I knew it had no brakes.
Driving a car means being in controll, I think it's funny when people think they can controll our climate.
It's more like a train, someone way up front decides how fast we are going and where or when we are going to stop. By buying a ticket and getting on the train I put my trust in that some one up front.
I can be anti social by lighting a cigarette and make life miserable for some fellow passengers, but that doesn't have any influence on the course the train is taking.
So, that makes question 3 and 4 irrelevant. :)
Re: Bathtub Basics? Climate change politics for simpletons.
Yes.
The point of the 'comparison' comes out rather nicely when you say that "you would never get in any car that had no brakes . . . [and] . . . driving a car means 'being-in-control' . . . "
So the issue is 'control', and then also in your train-analogy, 'trusting who is in control' . . . hmmm . . .
There seem to be two relevant headline control possibilities in the car analogy here: -
1. Use the brakes to avoid a 'speed-accident'
2. Don't drive so fast and avoid creating the conditions for a 'speed accident'.
Accelerating emissions of greenhouse gases are also accumulating in the atmosphere raising atmospheric concentrations. The historic and pre-industrial source/sink equilibrium 180-280 ppmv CO2 is sharply up [40% or 380 ppmv against 280] in the 200 years since humans started burning fossil fuels, and rising now with an exponent. [Check the NOAA data].
In anybody's book, this is acceleration.
Slowing emissions is applying the brakes to avoid further acceleration to the climate accident of runaway conditions - sink become sources. [Check the Hadley Centre site].
Re-establising source/sink equilibrium is putting the brakes on and staying within that speed-limit.
I conjecture that the car-analogy has helped clarify this.
However, your trusting attitude in the train-analogy is actually more revealing. You seems to denote that you expect that those stoking the boiler and accelerating the train, may hope that you are smoking enough not to consider that they may be faced with the train going too fast and out of their control, and will accept that loss of control when they lose it and realize that they have lost it and that you realize that too.
You may be right; we may have lost it.
What a life.
Aubrey
Post Script . . .
All I can say as a practising musician is that what you can play slowly, you can [to some extent] play faster - it is a practice-and-control situation.
However, if you can't play a thing slowly, playing it faster just isn't going to be possible until you can play it slowly.
The serious point is that if acceleration [economic/emissions/concentration/damage/etc-'growth'] is the problem, we have to solve it faster than we create it. Otherwise all the effort to address the problem is wasted.
What I fear reading into what you are saying is that, there is a problem , but there's no solution.
If you are right, will you please tell me how I explain that to my kids?
Re: Bathtub Basics? Climate change politics for simpletons.
An analogy - by definition - is not 'science' per se, it is helping the understanding of anything [in this case of science] by 'comparison'.
The epithet 'bogus' is gratuitous in this comment, just as the word 'science' is erroneous.
In fact the commentator's [CH] use of the term 'bogus science' in this example is a rather neat example of itself - it is a simpleton's bogus comment.
The bath-tub analogy is not 'politics' per se either, for simpletons or anyone else. What the tap:tub analogy demonstrates very well is the flow:stock relationship of emissions:concentrations.
The 'cumulative' aspect of emissions in the atmosphere is not well understood. The implications of this failure of understanding are serious as emissions need to be stopped altogether if their accumulation or rising concentration in the atmosphere is to stopped.
Sterman and Sweeney are correct in noting the failure of the public understanding of science in this particular aspect of global warming. They are should be commended for commenting on this and for using this familiar and helpful bath-tub analogy.
It is however probably true that most bird-baths don't qualify for the analogy and that most bird-brains don't undertand the difference.
Aubrey
Post new comment |
![]() |
Elections |
Posts: 472
Joined: 2004-05-05