conservatism

Tuesday 21st October

Palin 2012?

Thomas Ash, 21 October 2008

Whether or not she becomes Vice President next year, the prospect of a Palin candidacy in 2012 has to be taken seriously. If McCain wins this election, he would be 76 by the end of his first term, possibly too old to run again. Granted, Reagan was 78 when he left office, but his age proved a political problem, and the actuarial tables for John McCain are worse given his brutal incarceration in North Vietnam and history of skin cancer. If, on the other hand, McCain loses, then there is a chance that he will drag Palin's political career down with him. But she is far more popular with the conservative base than he is, and is already positioning herself to escape blame should the campaign fail by distancing herself from some of McCain's tactics. (Her messages on this front have been somewhat mixed, however. First, she implicitly criticised McCain for not launching more personal attacks on Obama. Then she criticised the campaign's use of robocalls. The day after, she released a robocall of her own.)

Assuming that John McCain does not seek the Republican nomination in four years time and Sarah Palin does, how would she fare? She certainly has ample and pasionate support in the conservative base that votes in the party primaries. However, her star is fading significantly outside that base, with her unfavourability numbers skyrocketing. This souring of attitudes towards her may well fail to seep into the primary electorate, leading them to choose a candidate who may be unelectable. But, as the Democrats' choice of John Kerry four years ago demonstrated, primary voters can be moved by (perceived) electability as well as ideological purity. And there is growing criticism of Palin among elite voices on the right, amplified significantly by Colin Powell's quietly devestating critique of her in his endorsement of Obama. However much these voices may find themselves isolated at the moment, they cannot fail to have some impact.

Update: See this, from the Washington Post's report on the poll they've just carried out with ABC: "McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, has become a drag on the GOP ticket: 52 percent of voters said McCain's selection of her makes them doubt the types of decisions he would make as president, a reversal from a Post-ABC poll following the nominating conventions."

Friday 17th October

On tax and healthcare, Americans are surprisingly receptive to liberal policies

Thomas Ash, 17 October 2008

Conventional wisdom holds that Americans are more conservative than their European brethren. It is probably partly correct, and Joe the Plumber is a good illustration of this.

Despite his claims earlier this week, neither Joe nor the business he wants to acquire make anything close to the $250,000 figure at which his taxes would go up under Obama. However, like a significant number of Americans, he is sufficiently sympathetic to the rich and optimistic about his chances of joining their ranks that he opposes economic policies that are currently in his short-term economic self-interest. He even calls them "socialism", even though they amount only to a slight strengthening of the progressive income tax already in place.

Nonetheless, readers may be interested to hear that the average American is not necessarily as conservative as conventional wisdom (or the example of Joe the Plumber) would suggest. One of the few striking things about Wednesday's debate was the confident and forthright manner in which Obama defended policies which are slightly to the left of what is normally deemed politically acceptable. But early polling suggests that the audience actually preferred these policies to those of John McCain. 59% thought he did a better job on healthcare, and even on taxation 56% preferred Obama. CNN's live audience reaction graphs also turned sharply positive when Obama explained the case for moving towards a slightly more European healthcare model. The average Joe in America may be to the right of the average Jacques in France, but it appears he is also to the left of Joe the Plumber.

Friday 23rd May

The fall of conservatism?

openUSA, 23 May 2008

In a mammoth essay in the New Yorker, George Packer charts the demise of the current conservative era of US politics. The "Sunbelt conservatism", shepherded by Nixon, that arose in the polarised 1960s has now fallen apart:

The fact that the least conservative, least divisive Republican in the 2008 race is the last one standing—despite being despised by significant voices on the right—shows how little life is left in the movement that Goldwater began, Nixon brought into power, Ronald Reagan gave mass appeal, Newt Gingrich radicalized, Tom DeLay criminalized, and Bush allowed to break into pieces.

As Packer points out, McCain "missed the sixties" and comes across to many Americans as a "pre-sixties" leader. His appeal to the centre may allow him to survive an epochal shift already under way.