Quote of the day

The sudden assertion of human criteria within a dehumanising framework of political manipulation can be like a flash of lightning illuminating a dark landscape

Vaclav Havel

Syndicate content

Login

Login or Register to be identified in your comments

Everydaylifemodern

Email & RSS

Sign up to oD's editorial summaries email:



Follow oD on Twitter


Add oD to your Netvibes: Add to Netvibes

openDemocracy likes

dLiberation

Fishkin and Luskin respond to Lupia, part 1

James Fishkin, 27/09/07

logo

Following the first of Professor Lupia's posts on the problems of deliberative polls, the two masterminds of the deliberative polling method, Professor James Fishkin of Stanford and Professor Robert Luskin of the University of Texas, respond to his accusations on the issue of transparency:

Skip Lupia has staked a good part of his career on the view that, by and large, ordinary citizens successfully use cognitive short cuts and simple cues to reach the same policy views and electoral choices they would reach if they knew and thought a lot more about them - and that deliberation should therefore make little difference. The evidence from Deliberative Polling challenges a great deal of his past work.

The claims in our Deliberative Polling research are supported by at least 21 scientific papers, some already published and the rest presented at scientific conferences and on the CDD web site. These papers are of course subject to peer review as they go through the publication process.

At the moment, together with varying collaborators, we have five papers with revise-and-resubmit verdicts from top political science journals. A number of other scholars have independently analyzed some of our data, writing scholarly papers and, in one case, a book from them.

We have admittedly been slow about making our data more widely available. We have been the victims of our own success in entrepreneuring a continuing stream of Deliberative Polls, which has retarded our efforts to write up the results for scholarly publication. When Lupia raised the issue of access to Deliberative Polling data at a recent symposium at Stanford, we replied that we would be happy to send him some. We never got a request but should still be happy to do so.

As noted, however, five manuscripts are currently at the revise and resubmit stage, and as these and other manuscripts are accepted, more data sets will be made available. We have put countless hours into creating and implementing these projects and simply want to have first crack at the data from them.

Finally, It is worth noting that we are at this moment (September 27-29) conducting a "Deliberative Polling Training Institute" at Stanford to train researchers from 16 universities around the country to conduct their own Deliberative Polls, producing their own data and, we hope and expect, leading to their own independent social science publications, testing our and many other claims.

(The full, unedited reply can be found here - JCM)

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

Arthur Lupia said:



Thu, 2007-10-04 13:54
In my original post, I raised questions about the transparency and effectiveness of deliberative mechanisms such as Deliberative Polls (DP). Jim Fishkin and Professor Luskin have made several claims in their response that deserve additional attention. In sum, deliberation can sometimes do great things, it can sometimes cause huge problems, and it can often have no lasting effect at all. Everyone who has a stake in Tomorrow’s Europe has a right to ask direct questions about what a Deliberative Poll can -- and cannot -- accomplish. 1. Jim and Professor Luskin begin by questioning my motives rather than dealing in facts. It is odd for an advocate of deliberation to defend his claims by questioning others’ motives. It is well known within the deliberative democracy community, that this kind of maneuver does more to impede successful deliberation rather than facilitate open conversation. It is better for participants in an open conversation to focus on the truth values of propositions and factual claims. To deal with the facts of his claim, I have published a number of articles and books focuses on the conditions under which citizens can successfully use various pieces of information to make quality decisions. I show that sometimes citizens can be successful when skeptics and pundits do not expect it. In other cases, citizens are not as successful. This is all very well documented -- as Fishkin knows. I invite you to have a look at my website (http://www.umich.edu/~lupia) and draw your own conclusion. 2. I was invited by the editors of this blog, to offer greater clarity in what deliberative democracy can and cannot do. To this end, the main conclusion of an expansive set of scientific research (almost none of which is by me) is that if you want to propose credible means for helping citizens be more effective, it is important to understand the conditions under which citizens can -- and cannot -- use information effectively. The questions I and others have raised about deliberation come from a disconnect between claims about the effects of deliberation (such as some made by Jim) and heavily researched findings about learning and decision making that emerge from experiments and related scientific work in fields such as psychology, sociology, political science, and the neurosciences. In this case, the science-Fishkin disconnect does not automatically imply that Jim is wrong when he makes claims about DPs, but it does mean that there is a legitimate basis for asking whether he is right. 3. In science, a common way to handle such matters is to facilitate replication. This often entails sharing data from which key claims are made. Later in their response, Fishkin and Luskin admit that they have "been slow about making our data more widely available." Slow is right. Their website refers to dozens of studies costing many millions of dollars including some that are over a decade old. But even as of today, there does not appear to be a single dataset that is publicly available. They then claim that, "We have been the victims of our own success in entrepreneuring a continuing stream of Deliberative Polls, which has retarded our efforts to write up the results for scholarly publication." This response does not hold water in the scientific community. That they have been "too busy" over the last decade to post data on which they seek to base scientifically validated claims is not a credible response. Today, it takes only a few minutes to post a dataset on the web. If Jim is serious about obtaining the legitimacy for DPs that comes from transparency, then he should make his data, particularly from his older and higher profile studies, available without delay.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><b> <i> <br> <p> <div> <img>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • You may quote other posts using [quote] tags.
More information about formatting options