oD-Crowd predictions: Hezbollah

22 May 2008

Subjects:

With the agreement on power sharing this week Lebanon appears to have stepped back from the brink. Will the factions be able to work together in the new government? Traders so far are cautiously optimistic, predicting a 40% chance of a Hezbollah coup in the next two months. Are they right or will the deal collapse in on itself? Will Hezbollah stage a successful coup d'etat?

Read Robert G Rabil on Hizbollah and Lebanon: the curse of a state

Clinton wins Kentucky. Obama wins Oregon. Dog bites man. The campaign that never ends keeps on going on and the crowd isn't yet sure on whether Clinton will pull the plug after the last primaries or fight on till the convention in August. June is the most popular choice, but only by a few percent. Will it all end June or is it going to drag on yet further still. Let us know! How long will Hillary Clinton continue her campaign?

Looking to the future beyond the campaign for Democratic Presidential nominee we've started a market to predict the likely Vice Presidential nominee in Who will be the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee?. The crowd is tipping John Edwards quite strongly against the likes of Wesley Clark and Bill Richardson. Are they right off track with that prediction, might Al Gore get a look in? Speaking of which, the crowd has bumped him up to a 46% chance (up from 30% last week) of throwing his hat in the ring as a contender for the presidency. Collective delusions or a realistic chance? Contribute your nous in Will Al Gore run for President?

You can trade in the openDemocracy markets here. You will need an Inkling Markets account [which is free] to participate. The predictive markets are aimed at harnessing the wisdom of the oD crowd - please contribute your knowledge. You can read more on the markets at The wisdom of the openDemocracy crowd and The openDemocracy crowd's wisdom: January 2007 report.

Remember: There will be free copies of the Quarterly, openDemocracy's new print journal, for star traders at the end of the year. Hop in and get trading!

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