Tom Griffin (London, OK): The SNP may not yet have the votes to get their planned independence referendum through the Scottish Parliament next year, but the proposal is certainly creating waves among their political rivals.
The Liberal Democrats announced yesterday that MSP Ross Finnie is to review their opposition to a referendum and report back to a special session of the party's Scottish conference on 30 October.
Scottish Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott has staunchly opposed a vote up till now, but there was notable pressure for a change of stance from some Scottish activists at the UK Lib Dem conference last month.
Blog reaction to the latest developments has come from SNP Gordon candidate Richard Thomson, who believes the Lib Dems are "all over the place on Scotland's future", and Linlithgow Lib Dem Stephen Glenn, who retorts that a referendum will call the SNP's bluff.
Underneath the partisan sniping, it's possible to detect some scope for a meeting of minds, not least in Thomson's argument that:
For the Lib Dems to back an independence referendum would flush Labour and the Tories out on Calman, and force both parties to come up with something, and sharpish. So, there’s a sound, strategic argument for the Lib Dems to back an independence referendum as a means of achieving further devolution.
When the Calman Commission began its review of Scottish devolution last year, Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems all supported it as an alternative to the SNP's independence agenda. In recent weeks, however, some have detected diminishing enthusiasm for Calman's proposals for further devolution in Conservative and Labour ranks.
Tavish Scott himself said as much to The Times last month:
“Right now Labour in London has only one thing on its mind and that is tax and the Pre-Budget Report (due in November). Calman does not come into its calculations. Meanwhile the Tories have made clear that they do not envisage any constitutional tinkering in its first term of office if they win power.“I was always concerned that when Calman reported it was not going to be turned into anything tangible very soon.”
The BBC's Brian Taylor suggests that Lib Dem review is likely to end up endorsing Scott's opposition to a referendum. It might nevertheless provide the occasion to begin a controlled shift, emphasising that the current position is predicated on real moves towards further devolution, and that lack of progress would inevitably mean opening up alternative routes such as a multi-option referendum.
The status quo would mean going into an election year as hostages of a weakened Labour Party and of a Conservative Party which still lacks a political base in Scotland.
Much better, surely, to move to a position that gives the Liberal Democrats real leverage both at Holyrood and at Westminster, revives their distinctive federalist vision, and makes them once again key players at the cutting edge of constitutional reform.
Comments
Calman is a dead duck because Labour have abandoned Calman and indicated that they only want a two option referendum, First Minister Mr Gray said it would "depend on the circumstances at the time" and that the question should be a straight yes or no on independence. In any case Labour are not going to form the next government while Cameron has said that he doesn't want to do anything with Calman till after the next plus one General Election. In other words, never.
A referendum is the only way the Lib-Dems will get any chance at all of the Calman recommendations being implemented before the heat death of the universe but since two of the three parties involved in Calman have already gone cold on the mess of recommendations that it produced the Lib-Dems may be doing the same thing or they may have always treated it as a distraction and anti-SNP tactic as Labour and the Conservatives did.
Of course, in the light of their backing down over a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty the Lib-Dems are intrinsically opposed to referendums where they don't like the question and since their constitution is based on keeping the union I'd be surprised if they would ever willing go along with the idea of an independence referendum.
Tavish will prevail this time and it's more of an excercise in being seen to do something than a direct challenge to Tavish.
It's a moot point if the Scottish wing of the British Lib-Dem party actually have authority to call a referendum without Clegg's say so as article 5.1 of their constitution says:
An independence referendum in Scotland in a win-win situation for the SNP, even if they don't expect to win it, because it legitimises the Scottish nationhood/statehood and in a strange way it would do much the same for the watching England and Wales.
I wouldn't expect the SNP to win an independence referendum, but a multi-option referendum would surely result in the Scottish people demanding even greater powers for the Scottish Parliament.
A typo surely Dougthedug, when you say "First Minister Mr Gray" as your link to the Herald article? Your deductions on the LibDem flim-flam are pretty close though!
Nice photo of the Knuckle Brothers on the beach at Brighton all the same.
Clarinda:
Oops, never spotted that one.
The full quote in the Herald was,
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