america

update: the BBC's North American editor Justin Webb has since blogged about this subject here 

Reports emanating from Italian sources earlier this week suggesting that the Vatican has effectively vetoed three of President Barack Obama's nominees to fill the vacant role of United States Ambassador to the Holy See--based on their liberal views on issues such as abortion and stem cell research--may signal the beginning of a cooling in US-Vatican relations under the Obama administration.

Dennis highlights the success of California's Proposition 8, which amends the state constitution to ban gay marriage.  This was a bitter note in Tuesday's results, made all the more so by evidence that the surge in African-American turnout carried the proposition to victory. Gay rights activists clearly have a lot of work to do convincing socially conservative blacks, unless they plan on hoping that their high turnout was a passing aberration.

Other than continuing the slow process of convincing Americans of the rightness of their cause, or simply waiting for time to do its work as each new generation becomes more tolerant, these activists have a few options. Attorney Gloria Allred has already announced plans to challenge the constitutionality of the new constitutional amendment - unsurprisingly, this does not seem likely to succeed. Others are hoping to wait a few years and then introduce a new proposition to overturn this one - a prospect which suggests we may see decades of see-sawing court decisions and citizen initiatives.

In the meantime, what will happen to those same-sex couples who have already got married in California? Eugene Volokh has a good rundown of the possibilities. In brief, it appears quite possible that their marriages will be converted to domestic partnerships, either by the courts or by the legislature. Strangely enough, that would not provoke the ire of many who voted for Proposition 8 - a solid majority of Americans are comfortable with something very like gay marriage, so long as it is not called 'marriage'.

Despite the bad news in California, it is worth remembering that Connecticut and Massachusetts still have equal marriage rights, that New York recognises marriages in Massachusetts, and that President-elect Obama has promised to push for federal civil unions. Time remains the best ally supporters of gay marriage have on their side.

Whether or not she becomes Vice President next year, the prospect of a Palin candidacy in 2012 has to be taken seriously. If McCain wins this election, he would be 76 by the end of his first term, possibly too old to run again. Granted, Reagan was 78 when he left office, but his age proved a political problem, and the actuarial tables for John McCain are worse given his brutal incarceration in North Vietnam and history of skin cancer. If, on the other hand, McCain loses, then there is a chance that he will drag Palin's political career down with him. But she is far more popular with the conservative base than he is, and is already positioning herself to escape blame should the campaign fail by distancing herself from some of McCain's tactics. (Her messages on this front have been somewhat mixed, however. First, she implicitly criticised McCain for not launching more personal attacks on Obama. Then she criticised the campaign's use of robocalls. The day after, she released a robocall of her own.)

Assuming that John McCain does not seek the Republican nomination in four years time and Sarah Palin does, how would she fare? She certainly has ample and pasionate support in the conservative base that votes in the party primaries. However, her star is fading significantly outside that base, with her unfavourability numbers skyrocketing. This souring of attitudes towards her may well fail to seep into the primary electorate, leading them to choose a candidate who may be unelectable. But, as the Democrats' choice of John Kerry four years ago demonstrated, primary voters can be moved by (perceived) electability as well as ideological purity. And there is growing criticism of Palin among elite voices on the right, amplified significantly by Colin Powell's quietly devestating critique of her in his endorsement of Obama. However much these voices may find themselves isolated at the moment, they cannot fail to have some impact.

Update: See this, from the Washington Post's report on the poll they've just carried out with ABC: "McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, has become a drag on the GOP ticket: 52 percent of voters said McCain's selection of her makes them doubt the types of decisions he would make as president, a reversal from a Post-ABC poll following the nominating conventions."

The world wakes today to exciting news: US President George W. Bush has set a new national climate target. While others seek to reduce emissions, the US will now look to at least stop increasing them. By 2025.

As the clock winds down on the Bush era, it is worth considering the consequences of his decision to stand still on climate change. America is now at least eight years behind the rest of the world. It will take a long time and a lot of work to catch up and there is, as yet, little evidence to suggest that the next president can do enough.