Owly,The tragedy of this


The tragedy of this business is we are not seeing the 'fall of the Berlin Wall 1989 moment' but rather the Prague Spring or worse still the Hungarian revolution of 1956. If Gaddafi wins it will snuff out the lamp of Liberty across the Middle East and some of us will not live to see it relit. 

I still have hope.  I remember when the Yugoslav war was raging.  The Serbs had control of half of Croatia and all of Bosnia basically, and everything seemed hopeless.  I remember a Croatian leader stating rather casually that his forces could drive the Serbs out of Croatia in 3 days or less.  He seemed crazy, but a month or so later the Croats suddenly rose up and smashed the Serbs.  They drove them completely out of the country in a single afternoon.

It is disheartening to see "the rebels" getting driven out of town after town, but I have to believe that somewhere out there in the Libyan desert there are camps training the actual force that will fight Gadaffi with organization, determination, and tactic.

I was hoping that these rebels that are in Brega and Ras Lanuf would be semi-disciplined fighters that could stall the loyalist advance in the effort to give the forces in Benghazi more time to coalesce into an actual army.  It is going to take training to teach people how to fight armor with nothing more than RPGs.  If such combat is in an urban setting I would always give the advantage to squads of RPG weilding infantry over tanks.  When fighting erupts in the streets of Benghazi, it is going to be between loyalist troops of questionable moraleand loyalty on one side and a force of rebels who understand that they are probably fighting for their very lives.  They know that their choice is to either stand on their feet and take a bullet in the chest while aiming a RPG at a tank, or surrender and take a bullet to the back of the head while on their knees.

I don't think that Gadaffi is doing anything more than driving the rebellion underground at the moment.  Libyan defiance of Gadaffi has been unleashed, and it can never be fully contained as long as this remains a Libyan affair.  If the West gets involved in this, I do believe that there will be a sizable contingent of Libyans that would rather rally around Gadaffi than tolerate foreign meddling.  That might be only 10% of Libyans, but that might be enough to change the balance of power on the ground as more people join the loyalist cause.

As I have repeatedly said here, this is going to take a while.  It is going to get worse before it gets better, but we have to be strong and stay out of it.  (I would like to see an embargo on Libyan oil, however.)


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