Owly,I wish you were right,


I wish you were right, but I fear you have got this badly wrong.

You may be right.  As I said on my previous thread (Egypt: Waiting for the Coup): "The best way to make a fool of yourself is to attempt to predict events in the Arab world."

This is the broadest based rebellion to Gadaffi so far.  I have to believe that the Libyans have got more than this.  I am waiting to see if Benghazi puts up the same amount of resistence that Misrata has, but so far it doesn't seem so.

As to you thoughts that Gaddafi is driving the rebellion underground I think this wishful thinking. He will extract a terrible price for this rebellion, for his humiliation and loss of face. He will take a leaf out of Saddam's book. You kill not just the rebel, but his wife and children, maybe his parents and grandparents and his uncles and aunts.

The Libyans are aware of this.  In any report where the question was asked, the rebels do mention that they have crossed the Rubicon, and that there is no going back.  The rebels know that if they surrender and try to melt back into the noncombatant population, there will soon come a knock on their door.  Everyone is aware what happens to political prisoners in Libya lately:

Hundreds of Islamists were rounded up, including many who had nothing to do with violence, and subjected to gross abuse. Students who had memorized the Koran recount being stripped naked and [humiliated]. When they complained to the prison governor, they were told, “You are here to die.” In response to a riot in Tripoli’s political prison, Busalim, in 1996, Qaddafi’s guards shot 1,270 prisoners dead—all but thirty of them Islamists.


(I edited that excerpt slightly.  Where I inserted "[humiliated]", it previously said "Students who had memorized the Koran recount being stripped naked and [dumped with dogs trained to rape them]."  I would like to know how much the Gadaffi regime invested in training dogs to rape Islamists.  My dog rapes my leg, the couch, the pillows on my bed, pretty much anything a foot off the ground.  How much would that dog be worth to Gadaffi?)

Wait,... wait,... rapist dogs are distracting me.  Oh, yea, this is the broadest based rebellion to Gadaffi ever.  I don't believe that the rebels are down to their last gasp.  Even if Gadaffi obliterates organized military opposition in  Benghazi and Misrata, he still has a hostile populace that has recently come into possession of large amounts of weaponry.  He is going to have to occupy his own country, with extended supply lines vulnerable to attack along a vast desert highway, in an attempt to disarm and punish entire populations.  That is not going to be easy.


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