Hi Jay, I'm unable to devote

Hi Jay,

I'm unable to devote the time to read this thread at the moment, so my apologies in advance if I'm repeating questions or topics already flogged here.

I popped by oD recently to see if anyone was discussing the UNSC resolution. This development really did surprise me, I did not believe  that Gaddafi had alienated so many, so quickly. Did he not speak at the UN just last year?

When time permits, I’ll give this beast a read and post some thoughts on Libya, which is a unique place of course. Historically, (and this has probably been covered) there is an argument for allowing Libya to fracture along the Tripoli and Cyrenaica spheres of influence as it is now and letting this “National Transitional Council” demonstrate it’s concept of democratic transition to the rest of Libya. This is the de facto reality on the ground anyway and requires no real western intervention beyond air cover to prevent major military operations by either side.

Democracy is indeed about functional institutions, so I take your point about Egypt. At least it does have the military as a starting point. Tunisia and Libya do have a longer road to establishing a cohesive system that isn’t simply as corrupt as the outgoing ruling clique. That said, I would simply point out that there is momentum for change in the Arab world now. We should not discount the possibility of an evolutionary step forward with only moderate or limited help/intervention from external powers.



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