The ongoing crisis in Lebanon is having serious ramifications for neighbouring Syria, whose state-run TV service estimates that as many as a million people have crossed the border to seek refuge; other sources put the figure at 200,000. The true figure may be hard to gauge in a fast-moving crisis, but what is clear is that Syrian emergency services and host organisations are struggling to cope with a massive influx.
By the fourteenth day of the conflict, approximately 400 Lebanese have been killed, 1,500 wounded and 800,000 displaced within the country. The need to respond to an emerging, growing humanitarian crisis has been expressed by the United Nations humanitarian emergency coordinator, Jan Egeland, and echoed by Lebanon's prime minister, Fouad Siniora. Relief agencies estimate that $300 million is needed for immediate assistance, though it is already clear that the cost of long-term care and reconstruction will be counted in billions.
Paul Cochrane is a freelance journalist based, until last week, in Beirut. He currently resides in Damascus.
Also in openDemocracy on the Syria, the Lebanon war and the future:
Hazem Saghieh, "Syria and Lebanon: keeping it in the family"
(14 December 2005)
Anoushka Marashlian, "Syria cracks down on dissent" (19 June 2006)
Fred Halliday, "A Lebanese fragment: two days with Hizbollah"
(20 July 2006)
Anatol Lieven, "Israel and the Arabs: peace, not diktats"
(24 July 2006)
Paul Rogers, "Lebanon in the wider war"
(25 July 2006)
Around 90% of foodstuffs are imported into Lebanon, but with ports and Beirut's airport closed, fifty-five bridges damaged and numerous roads pock-marked with bomb-craters, bringing in supplies is proving problematic.
As a result, prices of goods are soaring, petrol is in short supply, and medical facilities are reeling under the pressure. In the midst of these deteriorating conditions, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens are seeking to escape to safety, security, and temporary shelter. Many of them are crossing every day into Syria from throughout Lebanon, enduring journeys of up to nine hours via back roads through the mountains and the Beka'a valley east of the capital, Beirut.
The Red Crescent, the sister organisation of the Red Cross, welcomed vehicles packed with people and belongings with bottled water, food and medical assistance.
"We have had people come to us with burns, broken bones and other wounds from the bombings. People are exhausted after the crossing and, in certain cases, from walking across the border", said the representative.
Public buses have been making trips between Beirut and the border, but fewer have been making the journey after three returning buses (empty of passengers) were bombed on 21 July in the Beka'a valley.
Some Lebanese and Syrians are trying to organise aid relief. Yahya Aboud, who served ten years in the Israeli-run prison of Khiam in southern Lebanon during Israel's eighteen-year occupation, said he was going back to the south to help bring medical supplies, food and powdered milk.
"I haven't slept for five days, but will go back. I got a truck through yesterday, and want to get as many ambulances loaded with supplies across as possible", he said. "The problem is that supplies are not getting to the south from Beirut", he added.
The exodus is not confined to Lebanese. Around 1,000 Palestinians, Ethiopians, and Egyptians slept in no-man's-land on the night of 19-20 July after they were refused entry for not having adequate identification or passports. Many have since returned to Lebanon, but around fifty were still stranded on 24 July.
The solidarity effect
The size of the influx is putting a serious strain on Syria, which is now almost surrounded by countries in conflict. The tens of thousands of Lebanese are entering a country which has been hosting 300,000 Palestinians for decades, and has faced additional pressure from more than 450,000 Iraqis who fled their country following the United States-led invasion in 2003.
"The sheer number of refugees, probably reaching upwards of 1.5 million, could affect Syria's struggling economy. It could have an initial positive effect with an influx of people living off their savings. But if it lasts they will need to look for work, and unofficial unemployment figures range from 20%-25%", said an international development consultant working in Syria.
With hotels full and planes booked out for a least a week, the Red Crescent's centre in Damascus is inundated with Lebanese and Iraqis seeking accommodation, as well as medical aid and food.
"It is chaos, we have people in need from both Lebanon and Iraq. Donations and supplies are coming in, but we don't have enough medicine for long-term diseases", said a Red Crescent representative. "The problem is that these drugs are imported to Syria, and we don't have enough. We also need to stockpile for any eventualities here", he added.
Indeed, the Syrian people are not sure what to expect, but the common perception is that if Syria is directly brought into the conflict the Syrian public will rally around the beleaguered Ba'ath regime.
On 23 July, Syrian information minister Mohsen Bilal warned Israel that a major ground incursion into Lebanon would draw Syria into the conflict; he had earlier stated that any strike against Syria would meet an "unlimited, direct and firm response, using all means necessary". Iran's leaders have followed by warning Israel of "unimaginable losses" if Syria was attacked.
A source in a Syrian governmental ministry said the military is on high alert, with soldiers confined to barracks and internal security pushed up a notch. Ministries have also recommended employees to start stockpiling food and medical supplies.
There is widespread support for Hizbollah in Syria. Demonstrations in solidarity have been held and in the past week Hizbollah's distinctive yellow flag has appeared throughout the city on balconies and attached to cars. Posters also abound of Hizbollah's secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, replicating what some western officials call the "Hizbollah-Syria-Iran axis."
In Souk al-Hamadiyeh, Damascus's largest covered market, three large government-sanctioned banners proclaiming a message in three languages Arabic, French and English are raised above the main thoroughfare. The English version reads:
"The Syrian people, from the inner depths of their hearts call: we are with you and with the resistance Abu Hadi ["Father of Hadi," a reference to Hassan Nasrallah, whose son Hadi Nasrallah was killed in September 1997 in combat with the Israelis]. They claim you are a terrorist while all the religions say that he who fights the occupiers so as to defend his homeland is not a terrorist. But the terrorist is the Zionist who kills children in Palestine and Lebanon. The resistance and the approach of the resistance shall remain much stronger than all the weapons of killing, treachery, and genocide that America supplied to the Zionist entity. The victory is quite due by the will of Allah. May Allah emerges (sic) you victorious Mr Hassan Nasrallah."Meanwhile, Lebanese are being housed in schools, university dormitories, private houses, orphanages and mosques across the city. "We have 200 sleeping here, and we are not sure how long we can support them", said a volunteer at a mosque in Damascus's old city. The course of the wider war and the humanitarian crisis suggests that the displaced Lebanese will need support for a long time to come.
















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