America’s open-cast election, Godfrey Hodgson

Grace Davies — Mon, 02 Jul 2007 19:35:18 +0100

Seventeen months before polling day for the 2008 presidential election in the United States, the scene is more chaotic and harder to predict than for many decades. The result, at this early stage, is impossible to predict with any confidence. The George W Bush administration is extraordinarily unpopular, but it does not follow that the Democrats are sure of victory in 2008. Here are three reasons, other than the normal twists of the political world, for that statement:

▪ For years many political scientists have dreamed of a "national primary". In seven months' time, America will be closer to that than ever before. At least twenty states, and perhaps many more, will hold primary elections or caucuses on 5 February 2008. That means the parties' choice of presidential candidates, usually not final until the summer of an election-year, will be virtually decided before the spring.

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America’s open-cast election, Godfrey Hodgson