jdubow on "Al-Qaida: end of the beginning"

jdubow — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 22:05:22 +0100

Audrey Cronin's article on Al Qaeda makes little noted but excellent points in stressing that we should exploit weaknesses in the terror structure and focus on how they end (i.e. how to kill them) and not what keeps them alive. Tactically, however, there are good reasons to maintain a posture of close coupling between the Al Qaeda groups. The main reason is distributed accountability. The West has, for whatever reasons, lost the former unity at " the waters edge" that characterized US history until Vietnam. Thus even after 9-11 many progressive groups focused on why Al Qaeda was mad at us and how we should follow a policy of negotiation etc. The war in Afghanistan was opposed by many and the mainstream media. Similarly, the Iraq war, even with its errors, has been further undermined by the mainstream media monoculture and opposition politicians. Thus, in the event of a weapons of mass destruction attack on US soil it is important not to let the mainstream media monoculture and politically self-named progressives use the separate identity of various Al Qaeda groups as a rallying point to claim "we really can't be sure that it was Al Qaeda and that it might have been the Timbuctu Whirlygigs so we need to form a committee to investigate etc. This would lead to policy paralysis. What would be needed in that situation is a flexible response that says we will strike Al Qaeda cells where and when we see fit as well as their sponsors and their people. We can then covertly focus on their divisions and weaknesses to apply pressure to the weakpoints. To this end a willingness of the West to act in concert regarding bank accounts, tracking target populations and targeting well heeled enablers of Al Qaeda will go a long way to reducing their operational flexibility.

Al-Qaida: end of the beginning, Audrey Kurth Cronin

Tue, 11 Sep 2007 16:07:16 +0100

Yet another anniversary of 11 September has arrived, and the papers and airwaves are again full of anxious speculation about how democratic states, agencies and citizens are coping in the "war on terror." The question recurs: is al-Qaida's threat increasing or decreasing? But this is the wrong way to think about this challenge. The real question is: how will it end?

Audrey Kurth Cronin is senior research associate in the Changing Character of War Programme at Oxford University.
She has researched and written widely on issues of terrorism and security, including essays in International Security.

She is the co-editor (with James M Ludes) of Attacking Terrorism:Elements of a Grand Strategy (Georgetown University Press, 2004), and the author of the forthcoming book, How Terrorism Ends: Lessons from the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups

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jdubow on "Al-Qaida: end of the beginning"

Al-Qaida: end of the beginning, Audrey Kurth Cronin