Friday round-up, David Steven

David Steven — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 07:17:10 +0000

This morning, I escaped from the ‘bubble' for a while (more on that later), so I only arrived in the convention centre around midday.

Delegates were not so lucky. In the first week of a negotiation like this one, the formal talks splinter into a dizzying array of smaller groups. Each is set up to focus on a contentious area where a decision is needed. Later on, if a miracle occurs, the output from each group is pieced together. Even more rarely, something coherent emerges.

If you think your government reps are enjoying a holiday at taxpayers' expense, you're mostly wrong. Some of the hotels in the main complex are very swanky, to be sure. But delegates mostly work and sleep. If things hot up next week, which they probably will, sleep too is dispensed with.

Thus the grumbling in the unofficial record of yesterday's events, where delegates can be heard complaining about meeting ‘overload'.

"Time is ridiculously short to develop text," said one negotiator, while another observed that, with so many informal consultations, many delegates were "double booked" and unable to give each issue the attention it deserved.

"I suspect that we will adopt a ‘holding pattern' on some of the non-critical issues and push back real discussions to SB 28," speculated one participant. "That way, we can stay focused on the important post-2012 issues here in Bali," she added.

At today's lunchtime press briefing, however, UNFCCC executive secretary, Yvo de Boer remained in a perky mood.

Talks were progressing well, he claimed, fielding the usual array of questions. The media (me included) remain fixated on the ‘level of ambition' that we can expect to see come out of Bali. They also want to know about the actions of a small handful of countries. China, Japan, Australia, and of course, the US most tickle their interest.

With so much going on, it's far too easy to slip into the habits of an old-style Kremlinologist, hyping miniscule changes in tone when nothing consequential has really occurred. That said, it does seem that de Boer is slightly more hawkish on the ‘ambition' question than he was at the beginning of the week.

Then he urged us all to forget talk of targets in Bali. Instead, we should all keep our eyes on a more proximate prize: launching a process that would culminate in a final agreement in 2009.

As the week has worn on, however, de Boer has begun to make more frequent reference to a decision made in July by the Kyoto countries that ‘negotiations on future commitments for industrialized countries should be guided by a range of 25-40% by 2020.' (More details here.)

Of the rich countries, only Australia and the US are not signed up to that broad target. But Australia's new PM, Mr de Boer told us, is talking about ‘very ambitious' future targets for his country. Which would leave the US alone in its opposition to binding targets for the rich world.

The dog that hasn't barked so far, at Bali, however, is none of the above countries. It's India - home to a sixth of the world's population.

Rumours have been floating around for a few days that India has made a deliberate decision to send their ‘second string' to the first week of the meeting, and instructed them to say as little as possible.

The NGOs are reluctant to say anything critical about a developing country, so refuse to be drawn on India's role so far. But their silence speaks volumes, especially when you listen to their fulsome praise of the contribution being made by China, Brazil and, in particular, South Africa.

Characteristically, Mr de Boer was more forthcoming. When asked about India's role by a journalist from Australia's Financial Review, he admitted that the country wasn't at the forefront of discussions. Indian officials had made helpful noises in the past, though, he hastened to add.

Two thoughts:

Australia's Prime Minister Rudd is going to look like a complete fool if he fails to come up with the goods when he arrives next week.
And India's position needs careful watching. If something unexpected happens next week, it could well be triggered by action from the subcontinent. I'll endeavour to have something more substantial on their position over the next couple of days.

open Democracy News Analysis - Friday round-up, David Steven - Comments

Friday round-up, David Steven