The American Proposal [update 1], David Steven

David Steven — Fri, 14 Dec 2007 01:46:41 +0000

Last night, we reported on the bombshell proposal from US negotiators to give all countries targets, based on their levels of economic development.

Talks broke up acrimoniously at 3.30, with a plethora of counter-proposals on the table. As he left, Yvo de Boer pronounced himself ‘confident' about reaching agreement - but I think he was joking.

There is now no chance of an on-time finish here in Bali, and a risk there'll be no finish at all. This morning, raised voices have been heard from the room where the Africans are discussing last night's event.

The Americans, meanwhile, who went into their own meeting in the early hours after Ministers called it a night, have cancelled their scheduled press briefing.

We're in deep, deep trouble...

Here's the controversial US text in full (for anyone nerdily following negotiations, this replaces B1 and B2 in the earlier text):

Quote:

Enhanced action on mitigation of climate change, and the means to recognise such action, in the context of sustainable development, including, inter alia, consideration of:

(i) Effective, measurable, and reportable domestic mitigation actions [depending on the level of economic development and significance] [depending on the level of economic development and GHG contributions] [depending on the level of economic development and energy utilisation] [in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities]:

(a) including, as appropriate, quantified national emission limitation and reduction objectives, taking into account national circumstances and relative level of efforts;

(b) including, as appropriate domestic plans and measures that may include binding, market-based and sectoral programs; and

To recap on why this proposal went down so badly:

It talks about 'domestic actions' not binding international proposals.
It brackets developed and developing countries together - rather than suggesting rich countries need to forge ahead with strong targets, while developing countries take on easier commitments.
It's a major change of direction. Why introduce it so late in the day, unless the main purpose is to derail the talks?

There's a number of counter-proposals on the table, including one from South Africa that agrees to treat the Kyoto club, non-Kyoto rich countries, and developing countries in different ways. The US would be the only major country in that middle group and is very unlikely to stand for the isolation!

We're a long long way from any agreement...

Update 1: A tense morning has passed here in Bali, with countries cancelling their press conferences, while dishing the dirt to journalists off the record.

The US has retreated further into its bunker. Its early morning press conference was called off and we are yet to hear a peep from its press office (which is festooned with signs forbidding even the hotel cleaners to enter).

However, we hear rumours that the delegation team has received "new instructions" from Washington and that much of its proposal is being abandoned. Presumably it has served its purpose - to show that the US government could live with a total breakdown of talks if it doesn't get its own way.

The EU did come to meet the press, but Commissioner Dimas was there only to read a statement; no questions were allowed. Many are saying that the EU has already retreated on key issues, but Dimas said no.

It is fighting hard for a clear reference to IPCC science and is insisting that developed countries should start to negotiate deep and binding emission cuts, he claimed.

The preamble to the Bali roadmap has three controversial elements. Greenhouse gas emissions should peak in 10-15 years. They should then fall by at least half by 2050. And developed countries should use a range of 25-40% cuts by 2020 on 1990 emissions levels to ‘guide' their negotiations.

Of these three statements, the third is least acceptable to the Americans, Japanese, Canadians and (possibly) Australians. (The position of Russia is, as ever, deeply ambiguous.)

The EU continues to describe an ambitious range as "indispensable" - but I think it has a relatively low chance of surviving through to the final text.

The Association of Small Island States talked to the press at length, expressing their intense disappointment that countries are bickering about action, when climate change threatens the national survival of many of their members.

They accused the Americans of making a late move to tear up the basis of years of negotiations and are deeply concerned that an anodyne compromise might emerge as the clock ticks down.

And what of the developing countries? The G77 has now failed to turn up for three scheduled press conferences in a row - the third time without any explanation. This is due, no doubt, to the pace of the negotiations and the difficulty this disparate group has in agreeing a consistent line to communicate to the outside world.

However, we do hear bits and pieces about the role of key G77 players. While the Chinese are upset at last night's shenanigans, the South Africans continue to play a valuable role as catalyst for an agreement. The Indians seem now to be putting their weight behind South Africa's position.

Yesterday, Yvo de Boer said that he wanted the negotiations concluded by midday, so they could be translated and then photocopied for final agreement in the closing plenary session.

It is now 1 o'clock and the Nusa Dua photocopiers stand silent. We hear that the Indonesian hosts are hoping the meeting will be concluded by dawn. That's around fifteen or sixteen hours away,

Earlier in the week, one COP veteran warned me to be on the watch out for a cock-up once deadlines got tight. Ministers were up until late last night and their negotiators have been working all hours for twelve days straight.

Tempers are fraying and tired people are prone to mistakes. We're still likely to get some kind of agreement from Bali, however watered down. But a total breakdown should not be completely discounted.

Please God it's over soon - as I too am longing for some sleep.

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The American Proposal [update 1], David Steven