open Democracy News Analysis - Paraguay: Fernando Lugo's moment , Andrew Nickson - Comments

omega on "Paraguay: Fernando Lugo vs the Colorado machine"

omega — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 14:19:08 +0000

As one of the commentators said that Itaipu was signed under the Stroessner's admn which means the nation did not have any participation on it, neither the nation knows what were those conditions. In all standards agreement procedures, we may take for granted that there are contracts between Paraguay, Brazil and the third parties the financial institutions so called. If we want to talk about or (to write about) those agreements we must have at hand and these are "the contracts", other way, we make only speculate on something we are not sure about. Although there may be a very "objective" narration or description of Itaipu, based on books, little searching, but if we want to dig deeper into it these are not enough. Therefore, Journalists, Broadcasters, Writers, Professors must come out with facts, with proofs to support they reports. For this you go to the place where the events occurred, get to know the people, its culture, history, tradition, search, investigate. Live with the people at least for 3 to 5 years. You do not go back after collecting some raw materials to your desk in Europe or USA, and write something about any country or issues without knowing with certainty and in detailed what are you talking about. Eg., the international media, like, cnn, bbc & national geographic reporters/writers and others portraits as an example only Paraguay as the poorest country of the world next to second. But in spite of this Paraguay has the largest dam of the world -Itaipu with Brazil and other with Argentina -Yacyreta

Can I ask the whole world What's going on here? Why? What?

The question is. Why is Paraguay portrait as the poorest of the world or next to second? Do you have the ANSWER? In other word why is Paraguay in that situation? What's the cause? To CNNs, BBCs , National Geographic & others.... why you do not look for the cause/s of Paraguay being the poorest country in the world? It is not because of the international institutions who corrupted the Paraguayans system plus the Brazilian's exploitation for nearly 50 years now on low cost of energy price? You find the others causes... If you can...

I hope, that one day we will able to know the real score of the Itaipu dam issue based on papers. Although everyone knows about the real score. The people know what have happened, they talked about it. People are not ignorant. The thing is that they have no power to do anything about it. The people cannot remedy the situation, there is a bigger system to deal with. Do you know what is that system? I leave it to you to find that system.

How much was the cost of Itaipu? In terns of: human lives & environmental destruction?. Check your calculators.

I would like to invite those who are in the position to give the whole world the facts about Itaipu, especially, the Paraguayan and the Brazilian sides, the two governments, the third parties and the people involved during the Itaipu's construction stage. It this possible? Well, maybe?

I hope, Fernando Lugo will be able to balance the share of Itaipu in favor of Paraguay, Just for justice and fairness sake. Although still for Paraguay to wait until 2023.
15 years more it's not so far away. One Paraguayan told me about the Paraguayans' spirit and how they deal with time. He said " We can wait." "That's the spirit of the Paraguayans we can wait it doesn't matter how long it will take us." Furthermore he commented saying that: "We want to put the records straight so that Paraguay can be free from poverty and corruption as well". "It may be needed the help of the international community, if yes, will be asking for it at the proper time and at the proper forum". "But one thing is certain, Brazil cannot rob Paraguay for forever".

To comment on Itaipu, involving Paraguay and Brazil and the third parties, please get to know more about Paraguay, Brazil and the International financial institutions (the Banks & the Investors) who sponsored Itaipu. It will be very much appreciated.

Here're some keywords for your guidance: people, financial institutions, corruption, interest rate, injustices, poverty, mythology, cultures, traditions, power, ignorance, social & anthropological issues, religions, governments, Paraguay, Brazil, investors, banks, robbery and the media.

p.w.lambert on "Paraguay: Fernando Lugo vs the Colorado machine"

p.w.lambert — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 14:47:34 +0000

The comment regarding Brazil paying for Itaipu "in its totality" is a
common fallacy, but one which is mistaken and is important to correct.

Itaipu was financed by the international lending community through loans to Itaipu Binacional, which is jointly owned by the Brazilian and Paraguayan governments. Repayment on the loans is split 50/50 between the two countries, so effectively they both pay an equal share of the costs of debt repayment.

Both countries are entitled to 50% of the energy generated. However,
Paraguay uses only about 8% of the total and under the controversial terms
agreed by the Stroessner dictatorship, Paraguay is not allowed to sell its
remaining to 42% to third parties. Instead, it must offer it to Brazil. The
"compensation" paid by Electrobras for this 42% is significantly lower than
the international price, and significantly lower than the price for which
Electrobras sells it on to Brazilian companies. Hence Paraguay effectively
subsidizes cheap energy for Brazil.

Change is unlikely. As Andrew Nickson points out, the key directors of Itaipu
are Brazilian (despite initial assurances that directorships would
alternate) and no changes may be made to the Treaty until 2023 (50 years
after it was signed).

This is important in the context of the Paraguayan elections. Traditionally Brazil has not become involved in internal Paraguayan affairs because there has been no challenge from the dominant Colorado Party or even the opposition to Brazilian control of Itaipu. However, as Andrew Nickson argues in his excellent article, this may well change in the 2008 elections. Fernando Lugo, currently the front-runner in the polls, has specifically said he will seek
to renegotiate the Treaty to redress the imbalance and if necessary take
the issue to the International Court of Justice. Since Brazil obtains over
20% of its energy from Itaipu, a renegotiation in favour of Paraguay could
represent a serious threat to Brazil's energy plans. In this context, it
would seem unlikely that Brazil will simply sit by and watch Lugo win. This
is not biased analysis on the part of Andrew Nickson, as suggested in the
previous comment, but rather an accurate, informed and important commentary on Brazilian-Paraguayan relations

cissapinto on "Paraguay: Fernando Lugo vs the Colorado machine"

cissapinto — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 20:41:40 +0000

I was surprised to see that Mr Andrew Nickson did not mention that Brazil paid for the mega hydro-eletric Itaipu project in it's totality, from the blue prints to the last bolt and nail. Paraguay contributed only with the water of his half of the river.
I think that is an important issue to be considered when one is writing about that "colonialism" in Mr. Nickson text. In a real open democracy it is necessary a good dose of impartiality.
Anyway, I do hope Mr. Lugo wins the elections against the Colorado. He is, by far the best candidate.
And we hope the two countries can be good partners without the interference of a third (and big) country.

Paraguay: Fernando Lugo's moment , Andrew Nickson

Thu, 28 Feb 2008 06:32:23 +0000

A new school year in Paraguay and the return of the country's elite to Asunción after its collective flight from the capital's scorching heat mark the end of summer in this landlocked Latin American country. The several hundred families who compose this elite and control Paraguay - fresh from their luxury second homes in the beach resorts for the region's super-ricos - have in the past had little reason to consider the plight of their poor (notional) compatriots, who are at the sharp end of the second most unequal distribution of income and wealth in the region after Guatemala.

Andrew Nickson is reader in public management and Latin American studies at the University of Birmingham

There are signs, however, that 2008 is likely to be different. The elite's summer vacation coincided with an outbreak of yellow fever in a poor suburb of Asunción that has (at the time of writing) killed at least ten people. On 19 February there was widespread disorder as tens of thousands queued in vain to be vaccinated; the exhaustion of supplies epitomised the sorry state of the public-health sector.

But it is in the political arena that a restive mood is being most acutely felt. Paraguay has been continuously ruled since 1947 by the Colorado Party, which on 13 January celebrated an unbroken sixty-one years in power. Now, however, a maverick candidate - Fernando Lugo, a former bishop in the Catholic church - has emerged to challenge its hegemony in the contest for the presidential elections on 20 April 2008. Will Paraguay experience the kind of electoral and political earthquake that its Latin American neighbours have undergone in recent years; or will the tide of social convulsion and political radicalism continue to bypass the region's most neglected (as well as second-poorest) land? Whatever the election's outcome, Paraguay is moving - in its own unique way - into the limelight.

Also in openDemocracy on Paraguay:

Isabel Hilton, "Alfredo Stroessner: revisiting the general" (17 August 2006)The party's kingdom

The Colorado Party's sustained period of rule divides neatly into two parts. The first was dominated by the dictatorial regime of Alfredo Stroessner (1954-89); the second has been characterised by a dismal democratisation process that has seen three bouts of military instability (in April 1996, March 1999 and May 2000); the assassination of a vice-president, Luís Argaña (in 1999); and the indictment on corruption charges of two former presidents, Juan Carlos Wasmosy (1993-98) and Raúl González Macchi (1998-99). Similar charges are likely to follow when the current incumbent, Nicanor Duarte Frutos, leaves office after the presidential election.

The Colorados combine a well-deserved reputation for entrenching social injustice with an electoral machine skilled in the maintenance of elite power. Its weapons include control of a bloated state bureaucracy and pervasive use of corruption; these are combined with a formidable nationalist rhetoric that creates a heroic narrative from Paraguay's involvement in two of Latin America's three post-independence wars - the genocidal "triple alliance war" (1865-70) against the combined forces of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, and the Chaco war (1932-35) against Bolivia.

Among openDemocracy many articles on Latin American politics:

Sergio Aguayo Quezada, "Mexico: a war dispatch" (25 June 2007)

Rodrigo de Almeida, "Brazil: the shadow of urban war" (18 July 2007)

Justin Vogler, "King Juan Carlos vs President Hugo" (13 November 2007)

Stephanie Blankenburg, "Venezuela: a complicated referendum" (4 December 2007)

John Crabtree, "Bolivia's controversial constitution" (10 December 2007)

Ivan Briscoe, "Latin America's dynamic: politics after charisma" (19 December 2007)

Celia Szusterman, "Pulp friction: the Argentina-Uruguay conflict" (30 January 2008)

Guy Hedgecoe, "Ecuador's politics of expectation" (1 February 2008)

Catalina Holguín, "Colombia: networks of dissent and power" (4 February 2008)

Richard Gott, "Fidel remembered: a view of the Cuban revolution" (20 February 2008)

Against such resources, Paraguay's main opposition party - the Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA) - has found it difficult to compete. It proved ineffectual in building an alliance against the Stroessner dictatorship, and since 1989 has failed to break the Colorado Party's hegemony; personal rivalries between its leaders have drowned out any programmatic content in its political discourse.

In the 1990s, however, there was opposition from another source. A strong social movement then arose in rural areas to protest against the growing land shortage for poor farmers. It demanded expropriation of large landholdings that the Stroessner regime had awarded illegally - under the guise of "land reform" - to army generals and political acolytes. The movement - comprising two main organisations, the Mesa Co-ordinadora Nacional de Organizaciones Campesinas (MCNOC) and the Federación Nacional Campesina (FNC) - has become more radical in recent years as Brazilian farmers, spurred by the disparity in land prices between the two countries, have bought up large tracts of land for mechanised soybean production. In the past decade, over one hundred rural protestors have been killed by the security forces or hired gunmen.

Meanwhile production has soared, reaching a record 6.5m tonnes in 2006-07; Paraguay is now the fourth largest soybean exporter in the world. But the economic benefits of this agricultural boom (which also includes maize, wheat, sunflower and rapeseed) have bypassed the vast majority of rural households, who still cultivate small (ten-twenty hectare) plots, without secure land titles or support (in the form of technical assistance and credit) from the state. As the spread of mechanised farming literally engulfs these small communities, the irresponsible use of pesticides for GM crops (still nominally banned) is causing the deaths of small children in rural areas, with five cases documented since 2002.

From priest to politician

Such was the disillusionment with traditional politics that when an ex-bishop, Fernando Lugo, led a March 2006 march and rally in Asunción to protest at alleged violations of the constitution by President Nicolas Duarte Frutos, he was immediately catapulted to the national political arena.

Lugo, born in 1951, is the nephew of Epifanio Méndez Fleitas, the leading Colorado opponent to the dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, during which time Lugo's three brothers were forced into exile. In his youth he worked as a teacher in a rural school that was so remote that he was able to escape the usual rule that teachers had to be members of the Colorado Party. He became a priest in 1977 and worked as a missionary with indigenous people in Ecuador (1977-82). From 1982 he studied in the Vatican and in 1992 was appointed head of the Divine Word order in Paraguay. In 1994 he was ordained Bishop of San Pedro, a poverty-stricken region in the north of the country where he hosted the fifth Latin American Congress of Basic Ecclesial Communities in 1996. The Catholic hierarchy forced him to resign from his post in 2005 because of his support for invasions of large landholdings by landless families.

After months of speculation, on 25 December 2006 Lugo announced that he would stand in the 2008 presidential elections as a consensus candidate for the fractured opposition. Days earlier, he had resigned from the priesthood, a decision that provoked the ire of the Vatican, which accused him of disobedience and which still remains bitterly opposed to his candidature. Within days of his decision, opinion polls placed him well ahead of all potential presidential candidates from the Colorado Party and the PLRA, a position that he has maintained ever since.

In a July 2008 pact the PLRA even agreed to support Lugo's candidacy in exchange for the vice-presidential post, a decision that provoked the ire of the two other opposition parties - the Partido Patria Querida (PPQ), a reformist party founded in 2002 by businessman Pedro Fadul that still lacks any rural power base and the Partido Unión Nacional de Ciudadanos Eticos (PUNACE), led by the charismatic former army chief, Lino Oviedo, who was released in September 2007 from imprisonment on charges of sedition arising from an alleged coup plot in 1996. Prospects for a united opposition are now bleak after both Fadul and Oviedo reiterated their intention to stand for the presidency. Instead, the Lugo-PLRA ticket has attracted a myriad of small leftwing parties, strong in militancy but electorally weak in Paraguay's patronage-based political culture.

Although influenced by liberation theology, Lugo is a political novice in the cut-throat world of Paraguayan politics. He has been at great pains to present himself as a "centre-left" candidate and to downplay the image as a radical having a natural affinity with the broad populist movement sweeping the rest of Latin America. He has been careful to distance himself from Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Evo Morales of Bolivia although he has applauded the greater sovereignty over their country's natural resources that each has promoted. While praising the social dimension of the Bolivarian revolution in Venezuela, Lugo said that approach was also "linked to a strong dose of statism, totally at the service of one person", and that it displayed "a lack of pluralism", which "is dangerous for a real democracy." In an interesting pointer as to where his sympathies may lie, Lugo said that Michelle Bachelet's government in Chile has not ceased to be socialist just because it signed a free-trade agreement with the United States.

Yet Lugo clearly represents a serious challenge to the status quo of Paraguay's traditional non-programmatic political culture, supported by powerful vested interests that arose during the Stroessner dictatorship and that have consolidated their privileges in the subsequent democratic transition. Lugo has committed himself to addressing the enormous inequality of income distribution: "There are too many differences between the small group of 500 families who live with a first-world standard of living while the great majority live in a poverty that borders on misery."

Two bishops have even expressed fears that he may be assassinated and recent efforts by the Colorado Party to demonise him are likely to increase in the run-up to the April election. Foremost of these are attempts to link him to the Colombian Farc, which is alleged by the United States government to have a support network in the very department of San Pedro where he served as bishop.

A president for the poor?

The most explosive plank of Lugo's campaign is his commitment to renegotiate the terms of Paraguay's two mega hydro-electric projects - Itaipú with Brazil and Yacyretá with Argentina. The Itaipú hydro-project, jointly owned by Paraguay and Brazil, is the largest in the world with an installed capacity of 14,000 MW, generating around 90 million MWh in 2007. The Itaipú treaty was signed in secret in 1973 between the military dictatorships that ruled in both countries at the time; it has a fifty-year span, and thus is scheduled to expire in 2023.

Under its terms, Paraguay must "cede" the unused portion of its 50% energy share to Brazil; sales to third-party countries are prohibited. Paraguay currently uses only 7 million MWh per year and must cede its remaining 38 million MWh to the Brazilian state electricity corporation, Eletrobrás, at cost price. As "compensation", Paraguay receives only $2.7 per MWh (equivalent to $103 million per year), though Eletrobrás's resale prices of Itaipú energy inside Brazil exceed this figure many times over. The arrangement is both of enormous economic benefit to Brazil (the Itaipú hydro-electric scheme provided 21% of its entire electricity consumption in 2006) and scandalously unfair to Paraguay.

Brazilian governments have for over thirty years adroitly paid off the Paraguayan political and economic elite in order to maintain this lucrative deal. They have also bent the rules to maintain the advantages Brazil derives from the relationship: since the mid-1980s when the project came on stream, key directorships in the Itaipú Binacional company have remained exclusively in Brazilian hands, even though "alternating directorships" are a legal obligation; and the Paraguayan national audit office has not been allowed to examine the company accounts. Fernando Lugo has been vocal on the issue, repeatedly denouncing "Brazilian colonialism" and (in an echo of the Argentinean-Uruguayan paper-mill dispute) he has vowed to take the matter to the International Court of Justice if Brazil refuses to renegotiate.

This is the first time that a Paraguayan politician has ever made such a threat ; no wonder Lugo's move has set off alarm-bells in Brasilia. This has raised the prospect of Brazilian intervention in the April election in order to prevent a Lugo victory.

Fernando Lugo has a well deserved "pro-poor" reputation. Despite Vatican opposition, he will benefit from the fact that the Catholic church has a high standing among the public as a relatively honest institution in a country where corruption is rife. The Colorado Party has acknowledged that the 2008 election will be the toughest that it has ever had to face. The split in the opposition notwithstanding, Lugo remains the frontrunner. If he does succeed in ending the sixty-one-year rule of the Colorado Party - the longest-serving party in continuous office anywhere in the world - one of Latin America's least democratic countries will never be the same again.

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