ed_8 on "Europe's energy future: in the dark"

ed_8 — Wed, 17 Jan 2007 13:50:03 +0000

Thanks for your article, although I can't help but wonder why you don't mention peak oil.

The Hirsch Report (1, 2) - written for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005 - gives three scenarios that governments could take in preparation for peak oil:

* Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.

* Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.

* Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.

Some peak oil commentators (such as Colin Campbell (3), Jeremy Leggett (4), various people at the Pentagon (5) and even some BP employees (6)) predict global peak oil to happen between 2010-2015 and yet we have not even started a mitigation crash program, let alone seriously think about one. Unlike Sweden which has been influenced by this debate, we are not preparing for a oil-free society by 2020 (7). Indeed, the UK government does not think peak oil will happen before 2030 (8).

This mitigation program is vital because cheap oil currently underpins our lifestyle and society and oil derived products exist in almost every sphere of our lives, such as (for a more complete list, see http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/oilproducts.html and http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/petroleumproducts.htm here):

* Fuel, engine oil and grease for land, sea and air transportation

* Tarmac to pave roads and airfields, to surface canals and reservoirs, and to make roofing materials and floor coverings

* A variety of plastics

* Many pesticides and fertilisers (which are key for our current agricultural model)

* Various medicines and medical supplies (e.g. heart valves)

* Nylon and polyester clothing, ropes, etc

* Synthetic rubber

* Petroleum (or paraffin) wax used in candy making, packaging, candles, matches, and polishes

* Solvents such as those used in paints, lacquers, and printing inks

* Many other chemicals also need oil in some stage of their processes

* Various beauty products, including perfumes and deodorants

As oil becomes harder to find, many argue that prices will rise until a more economically feasible alternative is found. Oil derived products (and therefore life more generally) will become more expensive. However, for some of the products listed above there are no current alternatives. (e.g. airline fuel)

Our economic growth is obviously unsustainable. We have a finite amount of resources and we are consuming them at an ever increasing rate. Unless we find real and sustainable energy alternatives - which seems to be unlikely for our current consumption and energy use - we will have to radically have to change the way we live our lives.

I was wondering why you didn't mention this within your article, especially in relation to energy security? Why do you focus more on climate change, when peak oil is potentially more of a threat to society as we know it?

As E.F. Schumacher once said in Small is Beautiful:

"Fuel resources are very unevenly distributed, and any shortage of supplies, no matter how slight, would immediately divide the world into 'haves' and 'have-nots' along entirely novel lines. The specially favoured areas, such as the Middle east and North Africa, would attract envious attention on a scale scarcely imaginable today, while some high consumption areas, such as Western Europe and Japan, would move into the unenviable position of residual legatees. Here is a source of conflict if ever there was one." (15-16)

Notes

(1) http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

(2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report

(3) https://aspo-ireland.org/Newsletter.htm

(4) http://www.sqwalk.com/blog2006/000641.html

(5) http://www.energybulletin.net/18056.html

(6) http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/BPgeologistpeakoil.htm

(7) http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/2031/a/67096

(8) http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2006/05/74

Europe's energy future: in the dark, Dieter Helm

Tue, 16 Jan 2007 00:00:00 +0000

The European commission's new energy plan falls far short of the integrated, long-term strategy that the continent needs, says Dieter Helm. Read the rest of this post...

open Democracy News Analysis - Europe's energy future: in the dark, Dieter Helm - Comments

ed_8 on "Europe's energy future: in the dark"

Europe's energy future: in the dark, Dieter Helm