open Democracy News Analysis - Iran's post-election balance, H Graham Underwood Ali Afshari - Comments

HGUnderwood on "Iran's post-election balance"

HGUnderwood — Wed, 24 Jan 2007 06:58:57 +0000

Not a problem at all. Economic issues, especially amongst the youth--and in particular unemployment or underemployment among educated youth--will most likely become more of an issue as time goes on. Iran has a huge youth population that has recently begun to enter the workforce, and which will only get more frustrated as the economy worsens. Importantly, these are people born after the revolution so all they know is the Islamic Republic and not the Shah's reign for comparison. Still, the Islamic Republic is still very young (not even three decades old), so what is really important is when exactly people will start to blame not just those in power but the structure of the state itself. One of the biggest challenges of the Iranian democracy movement is finding a way to frame democracy not just as an elitist concept, but as something that benefits everyone, including those at the bottom of the socio-economic ladder who are more concerned with bread than abstract rights. And the biggest problem with the nuclear issue, especially for Western policy makers, is trying to decide who in the regime is in the driver's seat. Despite Ahmadinejad's best efforts he clearly is not, and never was, in control. The lead nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, who appointed by the Supreme Leader, is no Ahmadinejad supporter, and in fact ran against Ahmadinejad for president in 2005. Just yesterday the reformist cleric Ayatollah Montazeri criticized Ahmadinejad's handling of the nuclear issue, and most telling of all, last week there was an article in a newspaper closely aligned with the Supreme Leader that basically told the president to stop using the bully pulpit to talk about uranium enrichment. (Since the president has only limited formal power over this issue, the bully pulpit is really his best weapon). Still, it will be interesting to see how the nuclear issue plays out over the next few months. You probably read that Iran decided to have 3 days of war games in the Persian Gulf and kicked out 38 IAEA inspectors, but on the other hand there was a decidely muted response to the arrest of 5 Iranian liason office employees in Irbil last week. To be a fly on the wall at one of Khamenei's meetings...

janforrester on "Iran's post-election balance"

janforrester — Wed, 24 Jan 2007 01:24:42 +0000

And thank you for your clear and expansive response. When does the issue of unemployment, especially amongst the young, and lack of a broad-based economy become internally combustible? Also makes you wonder about Khamenei confronting the world over uranium enrichment, in which case Ahmadinejad has just been the warm-up act. Phew. Given Fred Halliday's and other analyses reporting on Iran's widening influence in the Middle East I look forward to more internal analysis like this on Iran.

HGUnderwood on "Iran's post-election balance"

HGUnderwood — Tue, 23 Jan 2007 20:27:15 +0000

Thanks so much for your comments and the thoughtful questions you raised. To answer your questions in order, first, it is not actually true that Ahmadinejad has been cleaning up corruption in business. He may have campaigned promising to bring oil money to the tables of ordinary Iranians and cleaning up business, but all any of the so-called privatization processes have benefited his cronies, particularly through large contracts given to the business parts of the Revolutionary Guards. Secondly, I don�t know of any specific policies introduced that Ahmadinejad has done to gain support of minority groups, but he has been trying to travel to every province in Iran, including the ones on the border regions where minorities are concentrated (e.g. Arabs in the Southwest, Azeris and Kurds in the Northwest, Balochi in the Southeast, etc). All I can really comment on regarding this is that somewhat recently he had to cancel a scheduled appearance in Balochistan due to continuing unrest and attacks against police there, and also that one of the regions that is being hard hit, and will continue to suffer more, due to Iran�s deteriorating economic situation is the Arab Southwest. I would expect ethnic overtures to be far less effective in garnering support than economic ones. As for some of Ahmadinejad�s economic initiaves being opposed by the Supreme Leader, the president�s ideas may be creative but unfortunately they don�t make good economic sense. There is increasing worry that his economic policies are going to lead to (even worse) widespread inflation, there are factory workers that have not been paid for ten months, and the price of common goods like tomatoes or bread have gone up so much that many families can no longer afford these. The budget that was just introduced (one month past its original deadline) does not bode well for the economy either, as it is the biggest in Iranian history, and relies on unrealistic revenue projections, particularly with sanctions looming. It is important, though, not to look at issues like the economy as Ahmadinejad vs. the Supreme Leader, but rather Ahmadinejad vs. the Supreme Leader�s economic advisors and other regime insiders. Hopefully these are of some help to answer your questions.

janforrester on "Iran's post-election balance"

janforrester — Tue, 23 Jan 2007 00:01:58 +0000

Thanks for this. May I ask the authors three questions: I hear from Iran that Ahmadinejad has been busy cleaning up corruption in business. Whilst I am not sure what this in fact means if he has ruffled the feathers of the bazaaris would this bother Khamanei? AND I have hear other unconfirmed reports that the President is trying to build alliances with minority groups. If so is this an attempt to outflank traditional sources of power? Third why was Ahmadinejad's attempts to throw some money at housing some time ago knocked back by the Supreme Leader? Not economic creativity but maybe some creative welfare.

Iran's post-election balance, H Graham Underwood Ali Afshari

Mon, 22 Jan 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Iran's enigmatic supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is manoeuvring behind the scenes to take power from the country’s maverick president, say Ali Afshari & H Graham Underwood Read the rest of this post...