Speculation again, Tony Curzon Price

Tony Curzon Price — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 08:41:43 +0000

Are oil prices rising because of semantics?A calm has returned to the economics blogosphere .... if not to the oil markets. Krugman saves his position by arguing that "speculation" only occurs when stocks go up, and refusing to consider the possibility of oil-in-the-ground being a stock. SWhen Krugman wondered about the political biases in calling "Speculation" he was not admitting, at some level, his own bias. Krugman wants to believe that oil prices are "about right" now. I wonder where he stands on carbon taxes and post-Kyoto? Does he believe that peak oil will do the job of cleaning up the environment without intervention?

Martin Feldstein in the WSJ is very convincing to my mind. He takes up the difference between storable and non-storable commodity prices that I emphasised here.

Tyler Cowen worries that the argument has turned into one about the definition of speculation, and I agree that the term has become emotive and contested. A bit like a "Just War", you can only ultimately judge this ex post: if oil prices this time next year re below $100, that would be sufficient, in my book, to call the current crisis speculative. If not, more likely we're in the grip of some nasty Malthusian constraints.

I had a poke around to see how easy it is to put a small amount of money where my mouth is on this .... maybe if I figure out how to place a stop loss then I'll dip my wallet into the spread betting world.

open Democracy News Analysis - Speculation again, Tony Curzon Price - Comments

Speculation again, Tony Curzon Price