open Democracy News Analysis - The lessons of Mumbai, Paul Rogers - Comments

EDT on "The lessons of Mumbai"

EDT — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 04:12:25 +0000

Ahmed, You speak about Muslim deaths in Iraq. Have you considered how many of these deaths were caused by Muslim extremists of the same ilk as those who perpetuated the ghastly attacks in Mumbai? I have not seen a statistic, but I would not be surprised if most deaths were civilians killed by terror bombings from Muslims aimed at other Muslims. Iraq was an accident waiting to happen once Saadam Hussein was gone, and he was not immortal. Its true, Muslims can complain about their status in India, but most minorities in Muslim countries are treated badly. Yes the U.S. has supported bad leaders in middle Eastern countries, some in the context of the cold war, some in the context of controlling energy resources -- but there are many leaders that are just as bad or worse that have had no US support. How do you explain US assistance for Muslims in the former Yugoslavia who were helped. The U.S. should have paid attention to Afghanistan after the Russians were kicked out, but sadly humans are short sighted and we walked away. But the Taliban are evil, and now they have been removed from power at least for now. This is a good thing for the Afghani people, though it is unfortunate that this conflict is not going well. The U.S. has not been perfect, but that is no excuse for the kind of foolish and destructive thinking you and too many others buy into. These young men and woman who are committing these atrocities are being turned into monsters by fanatic leaders. Sadly for the many decent people in the region, people like you who should be smart and educated enough to know better are apologists for fanatics! WAKE UP!!!

Murali Parth on "The lessons of Mumbai"

Murali Parth — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 12:31:59 +0000

An excellent exposure of the Imperialist US administration and their allies and those countries such as India and Pakistan who unwittingly pursue Us goals in the name of fighting terrorism. The Indian TV channels are just parroting "His Master's Voice" and get paid for that act ignoring the basic cause,viz,. millions killed in Afghanistan and Iraq. The US forces entered Afghanistan to nab & kill Mullah Umar & Alqeda leaders but has not succeeded except to kill innocent citizens ("collateral damage" !!!!) .In Iraq they managed to kill their one-time ally Sadam and just that. Let the world unite against these killers.
Murali

zindadil on "The lessons of Mumbai"

zindadil — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 03:43:48 +0000

this is internal, the hindu fascist,

Prgaya case mystrey

Three Police officers killed for investigating the Pragya case.

Indian army personnel caught collaborating with Pragya(BJP, RSS, Bajrang Dal, Sangh Parivar)

Underworld was tired of the above police officers being very just,
shoot at sight and these police officers did not take prisoners. Hence
a collaboration.

These elements got together and created a scene just to get rid of
the three police officers. (the families of the slain police officers
refuse to take the charity money from Modi)

Why Mumbai? Why not Kashmir? Why Not Gujarat?

Because Pragya was being tried in Mumbai a State run by congress.
Because Maharashtra is a Congress state and elections due in the near
future, BJP wants to be a strong contender. And BJP needs money from
underworld to spend on elections. Underword wants Mumbai to run it's
dirty business without any obstacles.Obstacles were the three fine
Police Officials.

Understand this. The LET wants Kashmir, attacks there would be
understanding. Attacks in Gujarat by LET, may be. No link there, but
then again maybe because Muslims were macassered by Modi. But it is
highly unlikely. Mumbai too far for LET and no adwantage at all.

This has to be them i.e. the BJP and Underworld.

dankusti on "The lessons of Mumbai"

dankusti — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:07:54 +0000

The way I am viewing this attack on Mumbai is that it is a part of the GLOBAL conflict between various factions. On one side there are those who are controlling the MONETARY and through this millitary power, and through this have been exploiting ALL regions of the Globe. This rapacious and greedy, aggressive exploitation of "others" for the sake of profitting has created the "OTHER" side: They are the citizens of various regions of the Globe whose counties have been raped, brocken appart and whose citizens ( in millions ) have been killed in the process. This of course has created a tremendous HATRED by the "underdogs" or the victims - of those who have been perpetrating this idiotic race to oblivion ! For that reason, I feel that in all of these Global conflicts the media needs to EXPOSE the elements of the "privilaged" participants ( local and global ! ) and to concentrate on the "SOCIO-ECONOMIC" reasons for these attacks, and not only to relate them to various "religious" causes. dankusti

usgaonkar on "The lessons of Mumbai"

usgaonkar — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:24:49 +0000

I fail to understand one aspect of the Mumbai attack design: Why 'Polish' nationals were systematically released by the Jehadis who, as post mortem has now revealed, brutally tortured most captives before killing them.

I believe that there was a definite signal behind leaving Polish nationals – fail to read it.

Surin Usgaonkar, Mumbai

Ambika on "The lessons of Mumbai"

Ambika — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 09:57:45 +0000

These attacks as you say are part of a trend and will not abate till the root of such issues are identified, addressed and dealt with in a manner that is long lasting. Starting a new war is not the solution to this problem and will serve only to create new problems in the future.

As you say security will increase in hotels and other venues in India and elsewhere, but for how long? In a few months, or a year from now this will reccede in people's memory and front line security will become lax once again. Then does one just wait for an attack in a shopping mall or a movie theater for security to be increased there?

Far more attention needs to be paid to the cause of such attacks, and the international community needs to act as a community, if not today's Mumbai will be tommorow's Melbourne!

srheywood on "The lessons of Mumbai"

srheywood — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:47:07 +0000

Ahmed12345

Paul Rogers has written a lot about Iraq and Afghanistan, including a lot on openDemocracy. I don't think anyone familiar with his work would suspect him of ignoring Muslim deaths.

Ahmed12345 on "The lessons of Mumbai"

Ahmed12345 — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:25:39 +0000

how easily you have counted all these attacks and forgot what has been happening with Muslims. Is this rational? tell me.
Just in iraq 650,000 muslims are being killed while only 3000 deaths among the troops ! and 50,00,000 total Muslims in iraq and Afghanistan combinely !( difficult to type even )

Apology ?? LOL !! if they just stop bashing muslims for what they are not responsible for , muslims would be very much grateful to them for this act of 'kindness'!! "Blame the victims"...so common these days ! I wander where is the justice ??

The lessons of Mumbai, Paul Rogers

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:30:30 +0000

The attacks in Mumbai of 26-29 November 2008 are as devastating as any since those of 11 September 2001. Their spectacular media impact is part of their character. This very worldwide publicity, however, can make it easy to forget that many other major incidents in these seven years - even outside Afghanistan and Iraq, the two main theatres of the "war on terror" - have similarly been carefully mounted complex operations against multiple targets.Paul Rogers is professor of peace studies at Bradford University, northern England. He has been writing a weekly column on global security on openDemocracy since 26 September 2001

Paul Rogers's most recent book is Why We're Losing the War on Terror (Polity, 2007) - an analysis of the strategic misjudgments of the post-9/11 era and why a new security paradigm is needed

In addition to his weekly openDemocracy column, Paul Rogers writes an international security monthly briefing for the Oxford Research Group (ORG)

India's commercial capital has been hit many times before; this was the latest of a series of over a dozen attacks on Mumbai since 1993 (see Ajai Sahni, "Massacre in Mumbai: the Pakistan connection", 11 July 2006). But the pattern of which the latest is part is also international and very widespread, as just six of many examples illustrate:

▪ in November 2002, the Paradise Hotel at Kikambala in Kenya was attacked at the same time as an attempt was made to shoot down an Israeli charter-jet taking off from nearby Mombasa airport

▪ in May 2003, four different sites with western connections were bombed in Casablanca

▪ in November 2003, there were two double-bombings within a fortnight in Istanbul, the first against two synagogues (killing twenty-three people) and the second against the HSBC bank and the British consulate (killing thirty-two, including the British consul)

▪ in March 2004, the Atocha railway terminus in Madrid was the centre of a series of multiple attacks on trains arriving in the city

▪ in July 2005, coordinated assaults on a marketplace and two hotels in the Egyptian resort of Sharm-al-Sheikh killed eighty-eight people

▪ in November 2005, fifty-seven people were killed in the bombing of three hotels in Amman (see "Jordan catches Iraq's fire", 10 November 2005).

Four concerns

There are four distinct aspects of the Mumbai attacks that are noteworthy in themselves and particularly worrying for counter-terrorism forces.

The first is the degree of calculation involved, especially in choosing to target a variety of locations that guaranteed both Indian and non-Indian victims. The great majority of the people who died (150 out of 174 estimated at the time of writing) were Indian nationals, most of them at the station and hospital. It seems clear that in this respect the main aims of the operation included inducing as much fear as possible, both in Mumbai and across India, and creating problems with Pakistan. There was also a very strong international element, symbolised by the assaults on India's best-known hotel (the Taj Mahal Palace), the selection of this and other western tourists, and the targeting of the Jewish centre at Chabad House.

Kanishk Tharoor, "What to make of the Mumbai attacks" (27 November 2008)

Saskia Sassen, "Cities and new wars: after Mumbai" (29 November 2008)

The second aspect is the sheer level of organisation that went into the whole operation, including detailed reconnaissance and planning, sophisticated logistics and well-trained and determined paramilitaries. Moreover, the attackers were prepared to die, not in the manner of suicide-bombers but in sustained operations that could be expected to last for (at least) several days.

The third is the cellular element. The perpetrators of the scores of major incidents in over fifteen countries that have occurred since the attacks on New York and Washington on 9/11 may have been connected at an ideological level, but in most cases they have acted in intimate groups that are very hard to penetrate. The very absence of identifiable central organisation or hierarchical direction can be understood as a source of resilience.

The fourth aspect is that this highly dispersed and amorphous jihadist movement is a learning phenomenon as well as an evolving one. During the five and a half years of fighting in Iraq since the war of March-April 2003, the different insurgent groups involved learned from experience - sometimes adapting faster than the United States forces. The same thing has happened in the longer war in Afghanistan, with the added element that Iraqi tactics and weapons have been transferred across (see "Iraq's gift to Afghanistan", 20 November 2008). In the same way, other groups will study and learn from the Mumbai experience and adjust their plans and targets accordingly.

Three rewards

The perpetrators of the Mumbai atrocities are possibly linked to the Kashmir-orientated Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Pure / LeT), with a particular (if as yet unproven) Pakistani connection. Almost certainly, however, they are but part of an even wider phenomenon. From their standpoint, the attacks have achieved three aims.

First, they have raised tensions between India and Pakistan. The result is to make it likely that the Islamabad government, will - from a position of relative military weakness - redeploy forces from western Pakistan towards the Indian border. This will benefit Taliban and al-Qaida militants. Since many Kashmiri-orientated paramilitaries have relocated to western Pakistan this is no small achievement.

Second, they have dominated the world's media for four days in a manner unparalleled since 9/11 itself. The Israeli media, in particular, has been hugely affected; the slaughter in the Jewish centre has caused national anguish.

Third, they have caused deep unease among counter-terrorism forces. What is now clear is that a dedicated and extreme group can use light weapons to cause havoc in a major city (see Saskia Sassen, "Cities and new wars: after Mumbai", 29 November 2008). In particular, the taking of large and high-profile hotels can lead to days of conflict in the media spotlight.

This is one more example of the evolution of asymmetric warfare - the ability of the weak to take up arms against the strong. In the coming months there will be intense efforts to uncover the extent of the Mumbai operation and the organisation behind it. More generally, measures will be taken to increase security at hotels, railway stations and other locations across south Asia and beyond, as security agencies digest the implications of the attacks.

On past evidence, far less attention will be paid to the underlying factors that have given rise to the al-Qaida phenomenon and its many related groups, including the network responsible for these attacks. Unless that changes, Mumbai will be just one more instance of the violent action-reaction process that has so characterised the past seven years.

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