The democratic countries must courageously show a willingness to apply the principles on which their internal system is based to the global sphere
The democratic countries must courageously show a willingness to apply the principles on which their internal system is based to the global sphere
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Israel Delivers Airmail to Iran by Way of SyriaSpeculation
The nuclear facility' claim doesn't seem credible. Who would build a reactor in a
location that is so easily attacked? I read about the incident in a few different locations and there are myriad other possible explanations, including plain old intimidation by Israel.
[quote]Analysts were initially divided over whether the [unconfirmed] flight was a tactic of intimidation, or a reconnaissance mission of some sort, or operation intending to test Syrian air defense systems. Other hypotheses have posited that Israel was on an intelligence-gathering mission, scouting an air corridor for a future strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.[/quote]
more speculation here if you like:
http://bgebgibk.notlong.com
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-16 23:58
reply
Thanks for the reply and
Thanks for the reply and the link, Brendan. I rather think it bolsters the argument for the existence of a nuclear facility, though; as time has gone on, the news accounts it references seem more detailed, with new information being provided (admittedly only by "informed sources") that some type of nuclear facility was the target. A recent example: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/14/washington/14weapons.html?hp As to the location, not sure. It would need to be on a river or other large body of water to supply coolant, and perhaps near enough to Syria's ports to lessen road transport time of sensitve or dangerous materials. If it was merely for intimidation or to plan out air-attack routes to Iran, it was still a successful mission, apparently. Time will tell, I guess, what was really struck, and whether Israel will mount a more ambitious mission, with a few more hours flying time added.
HH
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-17 01:12
reply Longer flights unlikely, it seems
Putin seems intent on sparing the region any more military adventures. See this from today's Guardian:
[quote]Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, gave Iran's leaders a public morale boost in their nuclear dispute with the west yesterday by issuing a veiled warning to the US not to resort to military strikes over the issue.
Mr Putin used a historic visit to Tehran - the first by a Kremlin leader since Stalin in 1943 - to amplify his opposition to an American attack against Iran. "We should not even think of making use of force in this region," he told a five-nation summit meeting of Caspian Sea nations.[/quote]
The plot thickens, as always.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-17 03:21
reply .
I agree with Henry that the air strike seems to be a calculated message sent by the Israelis to the Iranian government, yet I'm not completely convinced that the non-response by the other Middle Eastern countries is a quiet nod of approval.
More interesting, however, is as Brendan mentioned the harsh tone and warning by the Russian government towards any US military action against Iran, and I'm sure today that the halls of the pentagon are filled with endless debate on what this all means.
Strange though, it seems the world has turned upside down or either inside out, it use to be so easy to know who the good guys were and who the bad guys were - American good, Russians bad. Now it seems I've been reduced to staring at the prospect of having to applaud the Russians for standing up to the American government in what can only be described as a totally surreal experience. How is it that the Russians have come off looking like the peace keepers and defenders of the world while the Americans are reduced to the bully?
I remember watching the Midnight Express as a kid and thinking how corrupt and unjust those far off countries were, and was thankful that I lived in North America with the defender of the free world just at our footsteps. Now with all the events surrounding the war on terror, the war in Iraq, the unfortunate recent decision by the US supreme court regarding the innocent kidnapping and torture of an innocent man by the US government, and movies such as rendition, my son just might grow up with the same suspicious eye towards America as I did towards Turkey, and that's pretty damn sad.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-17 16:37
reply Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Until states meet the requirements of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, we are on the brink of annihilation. Since there is not the slightest prospect of nuclear disarmament, far less of general disarmament, we are not going to survive for long, unless the experience of nuclear destruction brings an outbreak of rationality.
(edited)
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-18 10:34
reply .
Interesting to note that GWB just mentioned today that the Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons might lead to WWIII.
I really wish he would stop talking altogether.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-17 17:28
reply
Brendan:
"Putin seems intent on sparing the region any more military adventures. See this from today's Guardian:"
Not sure what Russia would be able, or willing, to do in the actual event of a U.S. strike on Iran, or even an Israeli one. He's more than welcome to posture -- hell, Bush does it all the time. But I seriously doubt he'd try to interfere militarily if a strike were mounted.
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-18 02:48
reply
Chris
"How is it that the Russians have come off looking like the peace keepers and defenders of the world while the Americans are reduced to the bully?" Not sure how that can be, Chris, although I'd think you'd have to begin from the premise that an Iranian nuclear program, culminating in the ability to produce warheads, is no big deal. You'd also need to convince yourself that Russia's fledgling democracy, headed by a former KGB plutocrat who seems more and more loath to give up power, is up to the challenge of "defending the world." Now I'm not saying that hitting Iran's nuclear program is the best or only solution. But the U.S. and EU seem to be in accord that Iran should not be allowed to have a military nuclear program, and I agree. And if it comes down to a choice of letting them have one, and allowing them to develop warheads, or bombing their program to rubble, I'd vote for the latter.
HH
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-18 03:09
reply Selective
[quote] Not sure how that can be, Chris, although I'd think you'd have to begin from the premise that an Iranian nuclear program, culminating in the ability to produce warheads, is no big deal.[/quote]
I guess that is the central point. Although the fundamentalist rulers of Iran are quite threatening, their nuclear capacity is still a few years off by most estimates. Think positive, like george bush, mahmoud ahmadinejad can only serve a maximum of two four year terms.
The upcoming exit of Bush seems to be playing a palpable role in the timing and severity of the accusations (or rhetoric) about warhead ambitions (which they staunchly deny of course). His religion and it's laws assure that he is delusional on many levels, and that makes him a political force to be opposed forcefully, but I for one would be happy to hear about the opening of diplomatic channels, multi-lateral of course -- can't have george talkin to a terrorist can we-- instead of more 'preemptive' American militarism. By this mandate less administration in particular. Hey, make attacking Iran an election plank in 2008, you've got the time!
Israel, the source of much 'intelligence' and media spin on Iran makes me quite nervous with their set of ultra secret capabilities but I would not advocate any action kind of action be taken. They are more capable and the odds on favorites to use their weapons in my book. Pakistan is a boiling pot of nuclear risks, as demonstrated by the alleged sale of the information by Dr. Kahn.
As gloomy Eric points out, the fact that eliminating all nuclear weapons as an objective is no longer discussed politically and the fact that new weapons systems are a thriving enterprise in the United States make it hard to accept the morality of using force anytime soon. Heck, just tell them you are pointing all of yours at them until further notice. No contest.
Submitted on Fri, 2007-10-19 20:29
reply .
Henry, You ask how that can be, but surly you can't be so ignorant or dismissive of the perception that your country has cultivated throughout the world these past few years. I could go on endlessly listing some of the actions that have rightfully or wrongfully lead to this perception but I know you've read them enough times right here on this board. As for Iranian acquiring nucleur weapons, I disagree that my position would have to begin from the premise that it's no big deal. I simply reject your government's argument that a nuclear armed Iran would lead to WWIII, much in the same way that I rejected your government's argument surrounding the invasion of Iraq. We disagree I know, but my position is hardly an extreme or naive position and many others much more knowledgeable in such things hold a similar view. Take the former U.S. Central Command chief for example who is quoted as saying that 'Iran is not a suicide nation', and that he is confident that a nuclear armed Iran could be successfully contained. He goes on to say; 'Let's face it, we lived with a nuclear Soviet Union, we've lived with a nuclear China, and we're living with (other) nuclear powers as well.' Sounds pretty reasonable to me, and given his direct experience I'm far more inclined to agree with these views over Chicken Littles at the White House with his proclamation of WWIII and the end of the world scenarios.
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-18 13:44
reply More American (Cheney flavoured) Baloney
Well, It seems as though disinformation is the largest export the of the United States these days. Unfortunately, the real story will not be reported and the disinformation has once again acheived it's goal of garnering support for a foolish and misguided policy.
[quote]"Allegations that a Syrian envoy admitted during a United Nations meeting Oct. 17 that an Israeli air strike hit a nuclear facility in September are inaccurate and have raised the ire of some in the US intelligence community, who see the Vice President’s hand as allegedly being behind the disinformation.
A United Nations press release discussing the General Assembly’s Disarmament Committee meeting mistranslated comments ascribed to an unnamed Syrian diplomat as saying that Israel had on various occasions “taken action against nuclear facilities, including the 6 July attack in Syria.”
According to current and former intelligence sources, the US intelligence community has seen no evidence of a nuclear facility being hit.
US intelligence “found no radiation signatures after the bombing, so there was no uranium or plutonium present,” said one official, wishing to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the subject.
“We don't have any independent intelligence that it was a nuclear facility -- only the assertions by the Israelis and some ambiguous satellite photography from them that shows a building, which the Syrians admitted was a military facility.”
Their statements come as officials claim Syria has begun to 'disassemble' the site. An article today quotes former Administration hawk and onetime Bush United Nations Ambassador John Bolton, who links Syria's alleged action with Iran.
Israel has not spoken publicly about the air raid, other than to confirm that it happened. The confirmation came nearly a month after the Sept. 6 bombing, and provided only that “Israeli officials said the strike took place deep inside Syria.”
"'Radiation signatures' are just the particular type of radiation that some activity would give off," said Dr. Ivan Oelrich, a nuclear weapons expert at the Strategic Security Project at the Federation of American Scientists. "For example, a nuclear bomb would produce a lot of radioactivity and a nuclear reactor explosion would produce a lot of radioactivity but if you measure it carefully so you can tell, not just that it is radioactive, but exactly what particular isotopes are contributing, then it is easy to tell the difference.
"If a reactor explodes or is blown up then I can, with careful measurements of the particular types of radiation, tell what the fuel was for the reactor and how long the reactor had been running when it was hit," Oelrich added. "It gets complicated because you have to take into account how different species are transported in the air, how fast they decay, etc. but it can be done."
“The allegations that North Korea was helping to build a nuclear reactor have not been substantiated by US intelligence,” said this intelligence official, adding, “ but that hasn't stopped Dick Cheney and his minions at the NSC, Eliot Abrams and Steve Hadley, from leaking the information [to the press], which appears to be misleading in the extreme.”
Requests for comment to the National Security Council went unanswered.
Elliot Abrams, who currently serves as the Deputy National Security Adviser for Global Democracy Strategy, was convicted during the Iran-Contra scandal for withholding information from Congress. He was pardoned by President George H. W. Bush along with other Iran-Contra players, some of whom have reappeared in the current Bush administration.
Iran Contra was a criminal scandal in which the Reagan-Bush White House sold weapons to Iran – an avowed enemy of the United States – then funneled the money to extremist anti-Communist group of guerrilla fighters called the Contras, who were fighting the democratically elected government of Nicaragua"[/quote]
Read the article here:
http://baloney.notlong.com
Submitted on Fri, 2007-10-19 20:37
reply
Hmmm ...
Eric -- please come down off your happy high. It's hard to talk rationally with someone so unrelentingly optimistic and cheerful.
Chris -- "You ask how that can be, but surly you can't be so ignorant or dismissive of the perception that your country has cultivated throughout the world these past few years." Ignorant, hardly. Not will all the Americaphobes pasting any errant bit of anti-U.S. claptrap they can find on these pages. But dismissive? Oh yes -- that I CAN be. If you really have come to view Russians as "looking like the peace keepers and defenders of the world," then polite dismissiveness is, I think, the kindest reaction I can muster.
Brendan -- "I guess that is the central point. Although the fundamentalist rulers of Iran are quite threatening, their nuclear capacity is still a few years off by most estimates. Think positive, like george bush, mahmoud ahmadinejad can only serve a maximum of two four year terms." Those are certainly the high points, that both Ahmadinejad and Bush are not long for office (it's to be hoped). But the fact that the Iranian nuclear program is not fully functional seems to me to argue more for quick action than delay. While I, like any rational person, would prefer diplomatic solutions, it seems clear that if Iran is truly bent on acquiring nuclear weapons, there's little diplomacy will be able to accomplish, other than lull people into a false sense of security that some progress is being made. My sense is that Iran wants nuclear weapons, and will continue to pursue them as long as the mullahs are in control. If that's the case, it also seems that it would be better to preempt their program (before reactors are fully fueled and functional), thus delaying the advent of a functional weapon by however many years, as well as lessening collateral damage from radiation leakage from a destroyed reactor. As to whether Israel would go ahead with such an attack on its own, it seems clear they are willing, and probably capable, of doing so. I doubt, from Israel's viewpoint, that there is anything they might gain from delay that would outweigh the threat they perceive in a nuclear-armed Iran. And thanks for the link to the raw story piece -- interesting, if ultimately unsubstantiated. Of course, none of the stories about the airstrike have anything in the way of real confirmation, which is, I suspect, exactly the way Israel (and Syria) would like it to remain. But I noticed you called the link "baloney." Given the tone of the site in general and the writer in particular, apt, my friend. Apt.
HH
Submitted on Fri, 2007-10-19 23:33
reply Henry
[quote]But the fact that the Iranian nuclear program is not fully functional seems to me to argue more for quick action than delay. While I, like any rational person, would prefer diplomatic solutions, it seems clear that if Iran is truly bent on acquiring nuclear weapons, there's little diplomacy will be able to accomplish, other than lull people into a false sense of security that some progress is being made. My sense is that Iran wants nuclear weapons, and will continue to pursue them as long as the mullahs are in control. If that's the case, it also seems that it would be better to preempt their program (before reactors are fully fueled and functional), thus delaying the advent of a functional weapon by however many years, as well as lessening collateral damage from radiation leakage from a destroyed reactor.[/quote]
Waiting until GWB leaves office before doing anything at all would be the prudent course of action. America is already going to have a long, long road ahead of it to remove the lable "agressor nation." It's pretty clear that even if a reactor comes on line it will be quite some time before enough fissile material makes them a genuine threat. Agression begets aggression and there is little hope of a successful mission under the command of these idiots in the White House.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 21:51
reply .
Henry, It hardly matters what I think, but to be so dismissive to a great number of the world’s population smacks of extreme arrogance and is exactly why your country has lost it’s moral position in the world. Is Russia the defender of the world? Hardly, but neither I’m afraid is the US, though perhaps the reemergence of Russia is what’s required to stop the carte blanche approach your government has taken towards much of the world, and if they can put a stop to another invasion by your country upon a sovereign country then more power to them.
Submitted on Sat, 2007-10-20 16:56
reply Gloom and doom
Since there is no progress towards nuclear disarmament, far less general disarmament, you have to look for a trigger to bring it about. What would persuade the United States that peace was worthwhile? Perhaps, to take the optimistic view, large-scale destruction in the United States. The pessimistic view is that it would lead to all-out war, wiping out all human life. The destruction of World War Two has resulted in the most promising experiment for a peaceful and prosperous union of states that has ever existed. Unfortunately, the savage tribes still roam beyond Europe's frontiers, savages armed with WMD. Is there really any likelihood of world peace through domination by one great power or a combination of them? I really don't think an American Empire is going to bring world peace. Any other scenarios?
Submitted on Sat, 2007-10-20 17:44
reply
Chris
Chris:
"It hardly matters what I think, but to be so dismissive to a great number of the world’s population smacks of extreme arrogance and is exactly why your country has lost it’s moral position in the world." Hardly matters what I think either, eh? And I don't know if you're intentionally misunderstanding me or not, but I fully comprehend and even sympathize with people around the world who don't like America's behavior these past 8 or so years. I don't like much of it myself. No, to be specific, I was being dismissive of your observation that Russia is "looking like the peace keepers and defenders of the world." Your belief strikes me as ridiculous, given Russia's past, its continuing struggle with its strong-man syndrome, Putin's background and his apparent machinations to hang onto power. I think if you re-read what I wrote on this thread, you'll find that to be the case. Chris: "Is Russia the defender of the world? Hardly, but neither I’m afraid is the US, though perhaps the reemergence of Russia is what’s required to stop the carte blanche approach your government has taken towards much of the world, and if they can put a stop to another invasion by your country upon a sovereign country then more power to them." But you said Russians are looking like the defenders of the world, didn't you? We're still using English here, right? To continue ... you'll have to find me the U.S. position paper or resolution or legislation or whatever it is that leads you to think that the U.S. sees itself as the "defender of the world." I think the U.S. sees itself as the defender of the U.S., its citizens and its interests, and those who ask for the U.S.' help and protection. And rightly so. But ... more power to Russia, huh? If they can put a stop to America invading another country, I mean. Whatever country ... for whatever reason ... upon whatever provocation? Let's see ... the thing people seem to dislike so intensely about Bush is his absolutism ("You're either with us or against us" "The Axis of Evil" "Wanted Dead or Alive") I have to admit, I find this aspect of his personality repugnant. It makes him sound like an idiot, and is embarassing. Also, and much more dangerously, he and his cohorts seem to make policy based on such black-and-white perceptions. So you see, I DO understand non-Americans' antipathy toward this administration and its policies, and even share it to some degree. But it seems to me, my inconsistent frend, that you're espousing exactly the same worldview. Anything Russia can or does do to stop the U.S. is a good thing. I'll remember you said it. Here's hoping you don't come to regret saying it. HH
Submitted on Sat, 2007-10-20 21:00
reply
Ah Eric ...
"Since there is no progress towards nuclear disarmament, far less general disarmament, you have to look for a trigger to bring it about. What would persuade the United States that peace was worthwhile? Perhaps, to take the optimistic view, large-scale destruction in the United States. The pessimistic view is that it would lead to all-out war, wiping out all human life." Still longing for the day when mushroom clouds sprout over U.S. cities, huh? I can see it's a pleasant daydream for you, but you might want to be careful who you share it with -- you might find a black bag suddenly placed over your head one day, a sting in the arm ... and then waking up in a small room in a far-off land with a bright light in your eyes ... But what am I talking about: I'm quite sure you don't espouse these views in public, in front of friends, family and colleagues. They'd recognize you for the nutter you are, no doubt. No, much better to post these views online, behind the safety of a made-up screen name. Let's hope it stays safe, wot? After all, you never know who's looking these days. "The destruction of World War Two has resulted in the most promising experiment for a peaceful and prosperous union of states that has ever existed. Unfortunately, the savage tribes still roam beyond Europe's frontiers, savages armed with WMD." What a deliciously paradoxical statement. World War II brought about the destruction of the savages, my friend -- namely, loads of Europoeans. The same Europeans who sparked said war, plus World War I, the Spanish Civil War, the Anglo-Irish War, the Polish-Soviet war, the Russian civil war, the Balkan wars ... my hands are getting tired, but trust me -- the list is nearly endless. And mind you, these are just on European soil. The list of wars sparked by European nations around the globe, in their quest for other peoples' land, resources and treasure, actually DOES appear to be endless. And yet you're correct, the savages DO have WMD -- Britain, France and Russia, anway. Thank God the Germans have forsworn them ... if there's a hopeful model for Europe, it's most likely Germany -- the one rebuilt by the U.S. after the last war of the savages. "Is there really any likelihood of world peace through domination by one great power or a combination of them? I really don't think an American Empire is going to bring world peace. Any other scenarios? " Isn't the problem that Europe had their chance -- many chances, in fact -- and bungled it? It hardly seems the U.S. -- or any other great power or combination thereof -- could do worse. That's what's got you down in the dumps, my friend. But rather than accept Europe's deservedly second-rater role, you'd prefer to see the U.S. nuked back to it's pre-Revolutionary state. Well, anything can happen. I won't tell you to give up your dreams, for after all, as one of your not-so-savage forebears said, "we are such stuff as dreams are made on." While you're daydreaming, just, you know -- keep one eye out for the men in the white coats.
HH
Submitted on Sat, 2007-10-20 21:03
reply To get back to the "airmail"
It is really quite interesting that the truth about what happened has not emerged, or if it has, it is mixed with so much misinformation it is not discernable. Why do Israel, Syria and the USA (I presume that someone in the USA knows) not wish the nature of the target to be revealed. Syria has denied it was a nuclear facility, but then I expect they would anyway. Israel has allowed leakage that it was a nuclear facility in construction; this is odd because you would expect them to have announced this more proudly. The NY Times seems to be the source of much of the debate and it is impossible to see whether they really have inside knowledge or if they are a patsy for misinformation. It is certainly a convenient warning to Iran, particularly given the ease with which the Syrian defences were breached despite having a similar Russian defensive radar system as Iran. And a nuclear facility too!! Some independent reports suggest it was a cache of North Korean built, if rather outdated, missiles. The Syrians say it was a military store but that it was empty. Well I doubt that because Israel don't usually get this sort of intelligence wrong and would not risk aircraft on a fools errand (would they?). Perhaps it was an empty building. I guess it is nobody's interest to tell the truth here, which makes it more intriguing. Whatever it was, I guess Syria will not wish to advertise it, especially if it shows them in a poor light. They are in no position to retaliate militarily anyway, though I am surprised that their objections were not stronger. Perhaps it was something that Assad wanted taken out too; some sort of unofficial military activity. He would not want to admit that. Someone in the USA must know, Republican and Democrat, but they are not saying either. All very intriguing.
Submitted on Sun, 2007-10-21 20:28
reply Henry,
'But you said Russians are looking like the defenders of the world, didn't you? We're still using English here, right?'
I don't think it's MY grasp of English that you should be questioning. Clearly I asked how it was that the Russians were coming off looking like peace keepers, not that they were peace keepers. It should have been equally clear that this was a rhetorical question used only to contrast the depths to which your country has fallen in the eyes of much of the world.
'more power to Russia, huh? If they can put a stop to America invading another country, I mean. Whatever country ... for whatever reason ... upon whatever provocation?'
I'm not sure about all that nonsense, but I do feel strongly that your country has no right to attack Iran, if Russian interests and American interests bump into one another and that ends up avoiding another war and more needless blood spilled than yes, I see that as a positive thing.
'But it seems to me, my inconsistent frend, that you're espousing exactly the same worldview. Anything Russia can or does do to stop the U.S. is a good thing.'
No inconsistency here, just some misunderstandings on your side. As for Russia, if they can stop President Bush from attacking and destroying another sovereign country than yes, that is probably a good thing, other than that I would take it on a case by case basis so I'm not sure where you coming from on the worldview comment.
'Anything Russia can or does do to stop the U.S. is a good thing. I'll remember you said it. Here's hoping you don't come to regret saying it.'
I never said ANYTHING Russia does to stop the US is a good thing, that's ridiculous, but go ahead and remember what you want, it's of little consequence to me.
Submitted on Mon, 2007-10-22 20:53
reply Nuclear war impossible?
Henry, I can recall, two nutcases as you would call them, Bush and Putin, very recently alluding to the possibility of WW3. Since they hold the office that would give them a role in bringing about nuclear war, even if others will soon take over, this ought to give pause for thought. How do you see the likelihood of nuclear disarmament? Do you suppose that the countries which have nuclear weapons will continue to develop them and new countries will join the club, with no consequences for peace? Do you envisage world dominance by China or some other country which would force disarmament on the rest of the world? Just how do you envisage world peace being established? If not peace, then what would be the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons? Would the USA, the current greatest obstacle to peace, be sufficiently impressed to take disarmament seriously or would the trend be towards further preparation for a bigger and better war?
Submitted on Mon, 2007-10-22 22:19
reply
Quote:...two nutcases as
[quote]...two nutcases as you would call them, Bush and Putin, very recently alluding to the possibility of WW3. Since they hold the office that would give them a role in bringing about nuclear war...Would the USA, the current greatest obstacle to peace...[/quote] Loaded statements like these are so easy dismissed. Clearly GWB's references to WWIII were never a threat, but a warning about unstable states like Iran or non-state actors like Al Queda. The fact you prefer to interpret his statements otherwise reveal much about your bias.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 17:12
reply Whatever
Mike, "Clearly GWB's references to WWIII were never a threat, but a warning about unstable states like Iran or non-state actors like Al Queda. " However you like to look at it, a nuclear attack seems not improbable. Will it cause sufficient damage for the USA to be convinced of the importance of nuclear disarmament?
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 17:26
reply Concur
[quote]However you like to look at it, a nuclear attack seems not improbable.[/quote] Concur. The threat is real. That's exactly the reason why strikes like the one in Syria are so important. Destroy the capability BEFORE it is fueled. The danger increases exponentially by waiting. [quote] Will it cause sufficient damage for the USA to be convinced of the importance of nuclear disarmament? [/quote] The short answer? No...it will not. If anything, a nuclear attack ANYWHERE, by ANYONE is likely to convince the US that a nuclear arsenal will continue to be necessary for deterence. If you want disarmament, eliminate the threat that requires the armament in the first place.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 17:45
reply Too late, too obtuse
"The threat is real. That's exactly the reason why strikes like the one in Syria are so important. Destroy the capability BEFORE it is fueled. The danger increases exponentially by waiting." Mike Too late. Russia and China have the capability. "If you want disarmament, eliminate the threat that requires the armament in the first place. " Mike The USA is the greatest threat. Too obtuse, Mike, not to see that.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 17:56
reply Yes, China and Russia have
Yes, China and Russia have the capability. Too late to prevent it, but ultimately they are rational enough for diplomacy to keep the peace. But Syria and Iran do not have the capability and it's not too late to prevent them from attaining it. [quote]The USA is the greatest threat. Too obtuse, Mike, not to see that.[/quote] Unfortunately, obtuse statements like these undermine your credibility and make you easy to dismiss. If you cannot see greater theats in fundamentalist islamic terrorism, or mad Iranian mullahs, then discussion with you is pointless.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 18:11
reply Don't bet on it
"they are rational enough for diplomacy to keep the peace" Mike The USA was not rational enough to abstain from aggression against Iraq and various other countries. I wouldn't bet on the Chinese abstaining, for ever, from invading Taiwan or Russia from obliterating US missile defence systems in Europe (if they are set up). "If you cannot see greater theats in fundamentalist islamic terrorism, or mad Iranian mullahs, then discussion with you is pointless. " Mike What threat do terrorists and mad mullahs with zero nuclear weapons pose, compared with the US/UK/Israel axis of evil, with thousands of nuclear weapons?
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 18:31
reply unfortunatelly cant u see the truth?
iron mike 1- i want to reply before eric answer, but always i face difficulty in getting to the forum, i want to say that why always u enter islamic terroris,why u dont use christan terriroris as now u see who launch wars against muslims 2- iranian mullahs are not mad , they are not the one who invade your country and occupy it and also occupy afganistan and destroy both countries , you know who is the real mad who didnt listen to the whole world of not invading iraq .
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 18:44
reply Open your eyes to the truth!
[quote]why always u enter islamic terroris,why u dont use christan terriroris as now u see who launch wars against muslims[/quote] Perhaps because virtually ALL of the ongoing terrorist attacks are being done in the name of YOUR God, not mine. It was not a plane full of Norwegian Nuns who flew planes into the Twin Towers. It was a plane full of madman singing "Allah Akbar" into an inferno. There is no group attacking Muslims with the claim that Jesus commanded them to do it. I haven't seen anyone funding careers in suicide bombing for Jesus. While not all Muslims are terrorists, clearly all of today's terrorists are Muslim. Iranian Mullahs ARE mad because they are fueling insurgencies throughout the world in an insane attempt to establish a new caliphate. Once they become a nuclear power, they will not hesitate to bring about the end of western civilization and die happily as martyrs. That is madness by any measure.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 19:03
reply Relative threats examined
[quote]What threat do terrorists and mad mullahs with zero nuclear weapons pose, compared with the US/UK/Israel axis of evil, with thousands of nuclear weapons? [/quote] The key is "Intent." Mad Mullahs want to realize their insane vision--the threat exists when they pursue and achieve the capacity to execute that vision. The US/UK/Israel Axis of Freedom with thousands of nuclear weapons only represent a threat to those who would do them harm. Don't poke the bear, if you don't want to get bitten.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 19:11
reply you are not God to know the intent
iron mike
1- how come u know that the intent of mulla is to use nuclear weapons, only
god knows our good or bad intentions and u cant punish anyone becasue of his intent, if u didnt see any harm occured from him and those mulla didnt do anything to u country, but reversely the politicians in america and their leader threaten iran of 3rd world war as if they are now preparing for it and whish if it could happen, God forbidin.
2- god also dont punish now for the bad intent if it was not followed by evil act, now the evil act we see if from the other side of the east, it is not from the east, it is from the west were u are now iron mike.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 19:51
reply Nations communicate intentions all the time.
Nations communicate their intentions all the time. "Intentions" are the product of their words and their actions. God may know what's in their hearts, but we have eyes to see what Nations do and ears to hear what they say. If their intentions are different than their words and actions, perhaps they should chose them both more carefully. We are Americans and if you tell us that you will kill us, you can be sure that you will be believed and we will defend ourselves. Choose your words carefully.
Saddams words and actions communicated his intentions. If his true intentions were different, then he paid the price for not communicating more effectively. The peoples of the Middle East should take a lesson. If the US went to war with Iraq on the basis of a lie, then it was Iraq's lie, not ours that caused the war.
[quote]...now the evil act we see if from the other side of the east, it is not from the east, it is from the west were u are now iron mike.[/quote]
That's odd. The evil I see is in the East, where you are. I do not suggest you are evil, only the ideology in the East that supports evil...Fundamentalist Islamic Fascism
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 21:27
reply Iron Mike
California burns and Iron Mike keeps spewing the hot, arid air our way. Just evacuate and spare us the bullshit you wingnut. Now, to provide some balance to IM’s ridiculous partisan pandering…
…it seems the criminal gangsters that Mike still affectionately refers to as the Executive Branch are hard at the propaganda game in an effort to fast track an unjustified attack on Iran before monkey boy gets the boot from office. Even Republicans are catching on to the well-used propaganda tactics from the White House. When your own party no longer supports you, you know you've been a bad, bad, man. Huh? “Bush Derangement Syndrome!” Spouts Mikey. No, fraid not, see this excerpt from the Wall Street Journal where members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee (Republicans) say that they have been briefed on the intelligence from the Israeli attack on Syria but many members of Congress have not. They are accusing the administration of leaking un vetted information that supports their objectives of attacking Iran, just as was done in the run up to Iraq I would add.
[quote]Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI), the ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, and Rep. Ileana Ross-Lehtinen (R-FL), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, say that they have been briefed on the intelligence but many members of Congress have not. They are accusing the administration in a Wall Street Journal op-ed (sub. req.) of using selective leaks, thereby "preventing due diligence and oversight."
The lawmakers write, "We are concerned that, although the Bush administration refuses to discuss the Israeli airstrike with the American people or with the majority of Congress, it has not hesitated to give information on background to the press to shape this story to its liking. New York Times writer David Sanger authored and coauthored articles on Oct. 14 and 15 that appeared to reflect extensive input from senior policy makers. Washington Post writer Glenn Kessler coauthored an article on Sept. 21 that also cited inside information from the administration. We believe this is unacceptable."[/quote]
For all Mike’s assertions that this admin is not as bad as people like myself assert, it may in fact be much worse. What is laughed off initially by shills like IM is usually proven true over a period of time (see everything ever said about Iraq) and this merely emboldens the Bush/Cheney gangsters to do more as they roll along with impunity.
Shameful that anyone would have the balls, never mind the gall, to try the same tactics here in defense of a demonstrably dangerous and incompetent administration as it attempts the same dishonest tricks a second time. This time it’s not even "Iran has WMD, but looney justifications of warmongering based on: "Iran wants WMD! What a bunch of jokers.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 22:23
reply by intention israel wants all ME
Iron mike
1- you said that US belive if we said we want to fight you, but nobody said that, not any arab or muslim government say that they want to fight America, most of them are allied to america , so where is the point? I know that israel and politicians in America dont say their real intentions but their acts reveale it by distruction, killing, and destroying peace in ME to creat a land for dispute and Allah forbid for ww111 as bush wish and prepare to it. so by our eyes we saw distruction of our lands and occupation and disaster with refugees, so what did u see iron mike from us in the middle east , you are not refugee, you dont suffer, you know u identity , but for us we are the real victoms since 60 years. so which eyes and which ears have more experience than the other?
2- for intentions so israel has a protocol of zionist of stealing all ME as it is from furat in iraq to nile in eypt, and now what is occuring, they occupy palestine and now iraq .
3- Iam wondering what is iraqis lies as US went to war according to it ! they continously say that they dont have WMS and they reveal all their intentions but eventhough US administration didnt listen to them and didnt beleive them, so how come u said that u beleive what ME people are saying, yes we took a lesson of not trusting US administration anymore for their lies. I hope i choose my words accurately this time.
4- First president of US accused some countries in ME of evil and i said the evil is not from our side as we dont start anywar with others , we are defending our selves and not your country , eventhough i dont mean you are personally evil nor me nor any posters as we are only communicate and say our opinons , but evil is coming form whom killing innocent people, let others refugees and suffer not only them but all their offsprings to a long time, if you saw camps of palestinians and how is their miserable life becasue of your government then i dont think if you can sleep quetily at night and your consicious is clear.
5- At last i will quote the qoute of the day from OD which is Proportion is "everything. Everyone is shocked by acts of horror, yet people can only make sense of the world by knowing if things are getting better or worse"
— Polly Toynbee
and if i really understand it , i think it is applied here, as things are getting worse in ME by the US and israel and that is seen by all the people whom can sense things and know the truth. may be i misunderstand it as really usually it is not easy for me to grasp peoms .
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 18:01
reply Mike,
Unbelievable! Your government invades a sovereign country based on lies killing tens if not hundreds of thousands of innocent people, has directly or indirectly tortured innocent people, has rolled back many aspects of freedom it citizens use to claim were beyond compromising, is purposely agitating Russia with ridiculous claims of needing missile defences on their doorstep, and is now scaremongering its citizens and parts of the world in order to justify another invasion and another destruction of another sovereign country, but your government is the rational one....!
On top of that, your country is on the brink of a recession, your personal wealth has diminished greatly in comparison to other countries (your dollar is just a shell of itself), the American people have lost faith in their government, American influence in the world is at lowest level in decades, and still, YOUR government is the rational one?
Your present government is manipulative and dangerous, and delusional dupes like you are the enablers of this current regime. The only encouraging thing is that this current American government will soon be gone, and until such time it looks like some countries are willing to stare your country down over Iran which will hopefully prevent another war, much to your annoyance I know, but also much to my satisfaction.
Peace.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 19:37
reply Strange reasoning
"The US/UK/Israel Axis of Freedom with thousands of nuclear weapons only represent a threat to those who would do them harm. " Mike So, these kindly powers are prepared to launch a nuclear attack whenever they see fit. That's the position every other significant nation seeks to be in. Nuclear conflict is all too probable. What happens next, when millions are dead? Is this going to lead to further conflict or a New United Nations with greater means to oppose the scourge of war?
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 19:43
reply Team UN...world peacemaker
[quote]So, these kindly powers are prepared to launch a nuclear attack whenever they see fit.[/quote]
No...they are prepared to use all means available, including nuclear, to deter or defeat an attack.
[quote]What happens next, when millions are dead? Is this going to lead to further conflict or a New United Nations with greater means to oppose the scourge of war? [/quote]
New United Nations with greater means to oppose the scourge of war? Are you forgetting the bulk of the "means" currently comes from the US? Unless perhaps you are referring to the "means" of posturing wildly, condemning with endless empty resolutions, or threatening impotently.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 21:25
reply
Brendan
"Waiting until GWB leaves office before doing anything at all would be the prudent course of action. America is already going to have a long, long road ahead of it to remove the lable 'agressor nation.' It's pretty clear that even if a reactor comes on line it will be quite some time before enough fissile material makes them a genuine threat. Agression begets aggression and there is little hope of a successful mission under the command of these idiots in the White House." Actually, I think Iran is hoping that's the attitude everyone takes -- just wait and see what happens, and keep talking all the while. While I'm all for talking, the problem is that talking leads some people to believe that progress is being made, when in fact it might just serve as cover for Iran to continue its activities. Let's assume for a second that Iran does want to create nuclear weapons. According to various studies, Iran might be able to produce a weapon in as little as three years. In international affairs, that's a blink of an eye. How soon could Iran build a bomb if it decided to do so? Waiting would seem to play into Iran's hands, if they're trying to build a nuclear arsenal. I believe they are. There are only a few countries capable of successfully carrying out a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Russia is one of them, but of course, that's the last thing Putin would want to do. Israel might be able to do it -- it's probably at the edge of their operational range, but probably doable. And Israel probably considers itself as the country with the most to fear should Iran get the bomb. And the U.S. is, I believe, quite capable of it, either with B2 bombers or cruise missiles, or a combination. From my viewpoint, the question is, if there's going to be a strike, when should it be? I argue that sooner is better -- before reactors are fully fueled, before centrifuges are fully installed and operating full-tilt, and before Iran has created ANY highly-enriched uranium or plutonium to fuel a bomb.
HH
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 22:50
reply Henry
You are making the assumption that a strike would have the intended effect of derailing Iran's nuclear program, which is hardly a guarantee. The danger in your preference lies in the collateral effects of an attack where Iran retaliates, as it can, in Iraq and economically in the oil markets, potentially with the help of other ideologically driven oil merchents like Chavez.
As I was pointing out as rudely as possible to IM, the intelligence is once again being cherry picked to lead you to the exact conclusion you have stated. I don't want to suggest you are being played for a patsy, but, chances are pretty good you are.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 23:01
reply Was it something I said?
Brendan, [quote]As I was pointing out as rudely as possible to IM...[/quote] I'll leave being rude to you. You're clearly better at it than me. I prefer reason to rudeness. [quote]...the intelligence is once again being cherry picked to lead you to the exact conclusion you have stated. [/quote] Okay...so the obvious answer is for Iran to open their doors and welcome inspectors. Shine the light of truth on their nuclear program and all will be well in the world. That will happen about the same time as the UN becomes a credible force removing the scourge of war.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 00:08
reply Reason
Reason requires honest consideration of facts to determine a logical position. Creating political conditions through media talking points that are intended to support the logic of a predetermined outcome or course of action (by cherry picking facts) is dishonest, and hence undermine any notion that they are reasoned positions. Through my own reasoning I consider this to be the modus operendi of this US administration. The facts bear it out.
Your preference for reason is simply not evident when you support whatever it is you are told and spew partisan spin in turn. I'd certainly like to see some evidence that your positions are reasoned, but I suspect they are plucked direct and unedited from LGF.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 00:42
reply
Brendan
"You are making the assumption that a strike would have the intended effect of derailing Iran's nuclear program, which is hardly a guarantee." True. But even a partially successful strike could help delay the program. "The danger in your preference lies in the collateral effects of an attack where Iran retaliates, as it can, in Iraq and economically in the oil markets, potentially with the help of other ideologically driven oil merchents like Chavez." I think the effects of possible Iranian retaliation for a strike would be overshadowed by the effects of an Iranian nuclear strike on Israel or another Mideast state. "As I was pointing out as rudely as possible to IM, the intelligence is once again being cherry picked to lead you to the exact conclusion you have stated. I don't want to suggest you are being played for a patsy, but, chances are pretty good you are." Seems to me the intelligence is coming from the IAEA and IISS. They've reported finding traces of highly enriched uranium; plans on machining uranium into hemispheres suitable for a weapon core; Iran's plans to build a heavy-water reactor to create plutonium; and Iran's refusals to allow inspections of and evasions about its facilities. And it's the U.N. that has sanctioned Iran and demanded it cease enrichment of uranium, not the U.S. So thanks for your concerns, patsy-wise. But all this (non-CIA) information informs my opinion about Iran's actions, as well as my common sense. I'm wondering -- how do you feel about Iran possibly getting the bomb? Do you think they should be allowed to?
HH
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 00:26
reply Henry
The sources you quote should not -- could not -- lead you to the conclusion that an attack is imperative. For example, if I remember correctly, the Russian equipment sold to Iran turned out to be the source of enriched uranium. The IAEA is chuffed about certain aspects of oversight of the Iranian program but I believe they favour the action currently taken and further non-military actions as required. The Iranians, as signatories of the NPT are required to do better than they are right now, no question. You seem to think that they have no right to nuclear energy, or at least only limited access to it as was proposed by Russia as a compromise. I think pride prevents them from accepting that deal, in addition to the paternalistic precedent it sets for their relations with the developed world.
[quote]I'm wondering -- how do you feel about Iran possibly getting the bomb? Do you think they should be allowed to?[/quote]
I'm not yet convinced that they are actively pursuing the bomb. They are clearly trying to establish an autonomous nuclear energy industry with technology that allows them to produce fissile material. They have declined to substitute that with a light water reactor that would put everyone at ease, so I guess you could say they seem to be reserving the right to build nuclear bombs. In my view, they seem to enjoy the leverage and publicity it garners them in the Muslim world. They wish to set themselves in opposition to the United States, and the United States always seems happy to oblige which does little to secure or advance US interests it seems.
Let's suppose they will have a bomb in the quickest time possible -- roughly 24 months, and that would be 1 bomb. They would then need to test that bomb and declare themselves as nuclear capable, right? Well this leaves them relatively unguarded as a nuclear power does it not? Never mind the instant imposition of mutually assured destruction with Israel; it still poses no ballistic threat to the United States. In essence you are suggesting that the Iranian regime is a potential collective suicide bomber of some kind that would attack Israel or the US without concern for the retaliation, total annihilation. This does not seem reasonable to me, even if the mullahs are delusional. Frankly, as I stated earlier, Pakistan is just as much a threat because of it’s instability as Iran is with it's furtiveness.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 01:44
reply Into the breech...
At the risk of incurring a ruthless attack of rudeness by Brendan... [quote]They would then need to test that bomb and declare themselves as nuclear capable, right? Well this leaves them relatively unguarded as a nuclear power does it not? [/quote] No not hardly. Iranian defenses are well documented in public sources. Formidable Russian-made air defenses, hardened facilities, multiple dispersed underground nuclear facilities, aggressive camouflage and tactical deception. I'm not saying it can't be done, but this is hardly the soft target you suggest. Any strikes will not be surgical and are unlikely to eliminate anything more than the immediate threat. The result? The technology base will not be destroyed, but likely driven further underground and better dispersed making future strikes more difficult. This also opens the door to significant assessment of Iran's counterstrike capability which is not insignificant--militarily and economically.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 16:18
reply Elbaradei Lied!
This is just too good NOT to pass on here. Wall Street Journal, Oct 24, 2007 [quote]
ELBARADEI LIED!!!! In an interview published yesterday, IAEA director and Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei expressed anger at the Syrians, Israelis and foreign intelligence agencies for not providing information about a suspected nuclear program. "We have said, 'If any of you has the slightest information showing that there was anything linked to nuclear, we would of course be happy to investigate it,' " he told the French newspaper Le Monde. "Frankly, I venture to hope that before people decide to bombard and use force, they will come and see us to convey their concerns." ElBaradei also said an airstrike could endanger efforts to contain nuclear proliferation. "When the Israelis destroyed Saddam Hussein's research nuclear reactor in 1981, the consequence was that Saddam Hussein pursued his program secretly. He began to establish a huge military nuclear program underground," he said. "The use of force can set things back, but it does not deal with the roots of the problem." And Saddam is still underground. But hang on a second! Everyone knows Saddam had no weapons of mass destruction. Doesn't ElBaradei remember how BUSH LIED!!!!? And because Saddam had no weapons of mass destruction, it was wrong to invade Iraq based on the assumption that he did have them. That's just simple logic! So now we have ElBaradei arguing, based on the totally discredited premise that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, that airstrikes on nuclear facilities in rogue states are a bad policy. Just as in the case of Iraq, logic dictates that because the premise is false, the conclusion must be wrong. Therefore, the conclusion is inescapable that the civilized world is obliged to bomb Iran. [/quote] http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110010775 While the conclusion is clearly offered tongue in cheek, the irony of the logic is amusing in the context of the "Bush lied" chorus so often found here.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 21:38
reply |
http://tinyurl.com/yqfaq3
(URL shortened by oD staff)
Israel conducts a super-secret and apparently successful airstrike against a partially-built reactor in Syria, and there's hardly any mention of it in the media. One reason is that Israel seems to have placed an effective blackout on information leaking to the press, and any other country in the know (read the U.S.) is following suit. More interesting, however, is Syria's relative silence on the matter, and that of the larger Arab world. While there are many questions left unanswered, a couple of things seem apparent in news stories on the event. The first is that the attack was well-planned, resulting in the destruction of the targeted site with apparently little to no collateral damage, and no losses to the Israeli aircraft involved. The second is that the Syrian reactor was apparently years away from being operational, and, given the apparent backward state of Syrian nuclear know-how, could not have been considered a large threat, either now or in the near future. It seems to me, then, that Israel's well-planned and well-executed strike was meant more as a demonstration for an audience in Tehran, who's nuclear program is, by all accounts, much more advanced and therefore much more of a threat, in comparison with Syria's. And the fact that neighboring Arab (and mostly Sunni) countries have maintained official silence about the attack could lead to the conclusion that, far from condemning Israel's actions, they wholeheartedly support the preemptive attack on Syria and, more to the point, the emphatic message sent Tehran's way. HH