The democratic countries must courageously show a willingness to apply the principles on which their internal system is based to the global sphere
The democratic countries must courageously show a willingness to apply the principles on which their internal system is based to the global sphere
NavigationOur writersOur Authors around the Web
|
![]() |
Russia prepares for warPosts: Joined: 2003-05-03
Ronald Reagan, as we all know, won the Cold War. It looks like it's starting up again. WIll a Ronald Reagan step in to save the planet, again?
The Russian President announced a “grandiose plan” to restore Russia’s armed forces, which he appeared to link to the US invasion of Iraq. He described the invasion as an attempt to seize control of oil supplies and warned that Russia could defend its energy reserves against external threats. ...
“We will pay attention not only to developing the nuclear triad but other weapons as well. I hope that by 2012 to 2015 we will see a new generation of jet fighters completed and sent into active duty.” Russia would also modernise its fleet of Bear strategic nuclear bombers. Mr Putin ordered the fleet to resume round-the-clock patrols in August for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Britain and other Nato countries have scrambled fighter jets repeatedly since then to shadow the bombers near their airspace.
http://timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article2690183.ece
Submitted on Fri, 2007-10-19 10:14
I hope you're being ironic...
Reagan's "victory" in the cold war looked a bit hollow when the people he once called "freedom fighters" crashed planes into the two towers. The tool the US used to beat the Russians had turned back on them. In all seriousness, the cold war was always a conflict between the world's great powers and had very little to do with their respective professed ideologies. There is no reason why in a post communist world, a similar conflict should not develop with different players or different combinations of players. Bush's dangerous adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, aggression towards Iran and positioning for first strike capability with anti-missile technology is making everyone nervous. Russia and China are likely to get closer to defend their interests. Yes that nuclear clock is ticking again....
Submitted on Sat, 2007-10-20 14:00
reply Russian paranoia.
[quote]"...positioning for first strike capability with anti-missile technology [/quote] An "anti-missile" technology engages incoming missiles--hardly a first-strike capability. The US has even offered to share the technology with Russia and offered them a partnership in the anti-missile system. I can see why that would make them nervous.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 16:40
reply Nuclear war fighting ability?
[quote=Iron Mike]
[quote] An "anti-missile" technology engages incoming missiles--hardly a first-strike capability. [/quote] Any anti-missile shield thought to be effective does give the perception, on both sides, of the ability of the side with the "shield" to be able to survive a nuclear exchange. In other words, the "shielded" side could launch an attack, and intercept any retaliatory strikes from the other side. The "shield" therefore moves the nuclear arms system on from MAD to one of "nuclear war fighting ability". This effectively lowers the threshold at which nuclear arms can be used. Mike, is this analysis not correct?
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 13:27
reply Supporting nuclear attack
Mike, Taking out a 'defensive' riposte by another nuclear-armed country is part of the aim of the United States to make a nuclear attack with impunity.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 17:08
reply Yet another dodge?
And offering Russia the technology and a partnership in anti-missile defense is a clever means of launching a first strike against them? Wow...what clever tacticians we Amercans are!
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 18:26
reply Americas expenditure on
Americas expenditure on war and the military is greater then every other nation on this planet combined.... a fact that most here will be very well aware, and I can provide links for those who are not.
That said.. it is is true that under Bush... the vast bulk of that expenditure has been funded not by American Taxpayers, but by "Borrowing" from Overseas "Investors" in treasury bills and the like, at the rate of nearly three billion dollars every day for the last five years ( Trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see).
So it is true to say that in fact, America has the best equipped Military that China is willing to fund.
In the meantime, a few facts. America's much vaunted Airforce is composed of Aircraft whose average age is now 24.5 years . http://www.d-n-i.net/charts_data/af_aircraft_inv_avg_age.htm
It's navy is now one third the size it was at the time of the Korean War. http://www.history.navy.mil/branches/org9-4c.htm
And it's Army is now routinely described by American generals ( retired and serving ) as "Over-stretched. "
Not value for money, Even if that money has been borrowed from the Chinese Government . America's Children and Grandchildren, will have slog to work for decades to pay that off.. with interest. Bush and Cheney have garunteed America's kids will grow up to be China's sharecroppers. I doubt they'll like it... but their parents and grandparents will be able to boast how they were once the only hyper-power on God's Earth.
DaveGood
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 21:38
reply Thanks for your concern Dave
Gee that was very "enlightening" and totally irrelevant. Your concern for our children is touching, even if misplaced. Our economy is stable, unemployment is at historically low levels, tax revenue is up and the deficit is in steady decline. It's not perfect, but sure beats living in Australia. Aircraft age is unimportant--maintenance and design strength are important. We have the latest and greatest like the F-22 and our classics like the P-3 and the B-52 continue to be updated with new sensors and weapons because the airframes are so well designed they meet evolving missions. We are in a better position to meet global threats than our Russian or Chinese counterparts.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 21:48
reply Iron mike
Iron mike
You're economy is far from "stable". " Your official unemployment levels are widely regarded as a joke.... Anyone who has walked a few blocks in most major American cities in working hours and observed the groups of men gathered on most street corners knows that.
Your "Steady decline" in the deficit still runs at well over two billion dollars a day which people like you refuse to believe you have to pay for....
You won't stump up the taxes for it , which means your kids and your grandchildren will have too.... plus the interest accrued.
And when you're outspending the Chinese and the Russians ten and twenty to one on arms and warfare...... I would hope that you were in a better position to meet global threats then your Russian and Chinese and counterparts. But then, if that's true.... why do the Republicans keep going back to Congress and insisting on adding yet another one to two hundred billion every year,in emergency spending on top of an a military budget that has expanded every year and is already far more then the rest of the planet spends on warfare? As for Aircraft age being "Unimportant"... You of course will be booking your next flight with the airline which has the oldest fleet in service? Too bad if you don't because it may surprise you to now that of all the major countries in the world, American commercial airlines now have the oldest fleets. Your navy is one third the size it was in the Korean War. Many of Your pilots have fewer years on the clock then the aircraft they fly. Your army is described by your own generals as "Dysfunctional" and "Over-stretched"
And you're borrowing nearly three billion dollars EVERY day to keep this Catastrophe going. Which you can't do for much longer, eighteen months at the most. The rest of the planet aren't prepared to continue dumping their savings into an economy run as a giant Ponzi scheme (Enron, "Sub-prime morgatge" etc)...... Your children and grandchildren will spend decades of their lives trying to pay that off. Provided some greater catastrophe, currently ignored by the Bush\cheney Republicans doesn't intervene first I don't expect you to have a full grasp on Naval, Army or economic matters Mike.... But this is the CV You post here. "Retired US Air Force officer currently employed as a senior military analyst. Education: B.S Criminal Justice, University of Cincinnati 1979, Masters Public Administration, University of Oklahoma 1989, Graduate, Air Command and Staff College 1998, Air War College 2003." I do expect you to have some grasp on the deteriorating condition of America's air assets if nothing else !
DaveGood.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 23:06
reply No worries
That's Okay Dave. Nothing brings you out of the shadows faster than a good old fashioned America-bashing. If you are not an American, then our domestic problems are really no concern of yours. Your opinion of my country is irrelevant to me or the topic of this thread. As for my resume, rather than speculate what I have or have not been educated in, I suggest you see for yourself. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/prepare.htm We have the best equipped, best trained military in the world. Our military technology is second to none. None of the half-truths and red herrings you raise are going to change that or lessen our ability to respond globally to threats to American interests. Russia is well aware the anti-missile defeses pose no significant strategic threat to its homeland. These 10 sites could be easily overwhelmed by literally hundreds of Russian offensive missiles in their inventory. GWB has offered to share technology and partner with the Russians for a joint effort to detect, deter, and defeat rogue nation nukes all to prove these are strictly defensive even to the point of delaying activation of these sites until Iranian missile capability is proven AND STILL NONE HERE ON OD HAVE RESPONDED TO THAT FACT. Rather than trying and convince me the US is on the verge of collapse, address the topic and explain the Russian reluctance to partner against rogue nation nuclear weapons...if you can.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 23:17
reply Will the UN decide?
"delaying activation of these sites until Iranian missile capability is proven AND STILL NONE HERE ON OD HAVE RESPONDED TO THAT FACT." Iron Mike Which tribunal will decide if American claims are proven and any proposed action legitimate?
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-23 23:14
reply Mike....
Mike.... You have the best equiped and best trained military China is willing to pay for. Once they cut that off... at a time of their choosing... You will be a military stuck in urban battlefields, thousands of miles, two continents and an ocean away from home.. But that's a vulnerability you appear to be happy to live with. To address some of the points you raise.
You arguement is one of recripocity, essentially, you argue, that's what the USA will do, you are willing to allow Russia to do. Really?
America wants to base missiles real close to Russia's borders. How do you feel about Russia basing some of it's missiles in Cuba?
Don't mind that?
As for it being "10" missiles... even though they don't work, and have cost dozens of billions delivered as profits to Republican\conservative corporations over the last thirty years.
One day they might.. which would make them illegal under treaties signed by US Government. But let us ignore that, let us all recognize ( And the rest of the planet has now reached this position) that any treaty signed by the US Government is worthless and thier word is to be trusted on nothing .
What would that mean?
They would have ten working ABM missiles on Russia's borders.
Then the Pentagon number crunches.
In the event of a first strike against all Russia's ICBM's... how many might be expected to survive? 30? 50? Well there's room to ship out and emplace another 90.
Now, with 100 ABM in place, the USA can THREATEN to destroy Russia's Landbased ICBM. Nail it's airfields, catch all it's subs, and whatever Russia is able to launch back after our first strike... our ABM in Poland will mop up.
those ABM in Poland are integral to a first strike threat against Russia.... and illegal. And you'd bomb any site where Russia was planning to emplace something similar anywhere near your borders.
You know it. I know it. Everyone reading this knows it. And facts remain facts Iron Mike. Your airforce is composed of aircraft older then many of their pilots. Your navy is one third the size it was in the Korean War. And your own Generals refer to your Army as dysfunctional, overstretched or outright "Broken". And you have to borrow three billion dollars every day from foriegn Governments, such as the Chinese just to keep this disaster going. You might have attended any number of prestigious educational establishments Iron Mike.....but frankly, over here we have two sayings. One is that an expensive education does not indicate a first class mind ( Just look at Bush) and the other is... You can't polish a turd. DaveGood
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 00:00
reply ABM vs. ICBM
[quote] You might have attended any number of prestigious educational establishments Iron Mike.....but frankly, over here we have two sayings.[/quote] Really...two sayings? And quite profound they are too. You must be very proud. The only reason I provide a brief resume with my profile is not to brag, but to give some insight into the basis of my point of view. If I speak to a defense issue, especially one in the air domain, I have some background in the subject area.[quote]You (Sic) arguement (Sic) is one of recripocity (Sic), essentially, you argue, that's what the USA will do, you are willing to allow Russia to do. [/quote] Nope. Grammar and punctuation aside (which I'd recommend you polish instead of turds), you confuse reciprocity with partnership. The best way to dispel any misgivings over the anti-missile system is to provide Russia with complete visibility on the program and enlist them as partners. Right now they are walking a tight-rope of diplomacy to maintain a relationship with the Iranians. That's a temporary marriage of convenience. [quote]As for it being "10" missiles... even though they don't work, and have cost dozens of billions delivered as profits to Republican\conservative corporations over the last thirty years. [/quote] Geez...make up your mind. If they don't work, there is no threat. And if they DO work, 10 missiles is hardly a strategic threat. Additionally, you need to do your homework. There is a huge difference between an ICBM and an interceptor missile, so the Cuban missile crisis is not a comparable situation. As for effectiveness, the THAAD recently noted its 30th kill in 38 tests. For a missile in development, that's a pretty good record. http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4046
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 01:14
reply Hostile intentions of USA
The Bush administration signalled its hostile intent by withdrawing from the Anti-Ballistic-Missile Treaty in 2002. The plan to place interceptor missiles and radar on European soil is further proof of this trend. The expulsion of US troops and military facilities from the Union is long overdue.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 11:11
reply Pragmatic intentions of the USA
[quote]Eric: The Bush administration signalled its hostile intent by withdrawing from the Anti-Ballistic-Missile Treaty in 2002. [/quote]
The ABM treaty was with the Soviet Union in 1972 during the Cold War. The world faces entirely different defense challenges today. Rogue nations and non-state actors have access and ideology supporting first-strike policies. Failure to respond to emerging threats would be the height of government irresponsibility.
The Bush administration signaled, not hostile intent, but pragmatic intent to do whatever is required to detect, deter, and defeat threats to the US homeland and interests. That is the first and foremost social contract any democracy has with its citizens.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 16:52
reply Good question...easy answer.
[quote]In other words, the "shielded" side could launch an attack, and intercept any retaliatory strikes from the other side. The "shield" therefore moves the nuclear arms system on from MAD to one of "nuclear war fighting ability". This effectively lowers the threshold at which nuclear arms can be used.
Mike, is this analysis not correct?[/quote] No. That would only be correct if ABMs were deployed in sufficient numbers to counter a retalitory strike. The Russian ICBMs number in the hundreds--most have multiple warheads--the 10 ABMs deployed would have an insignificant effect on a Russian counterstrike. It's a numbers game and the Russians have the advantage. That's why this ABM deployment should be looked at as one component of BOTH countries "defense in depth" especially if both sides have access to the technology and partnership in operation. The more interesting question is why the Russians are reluctant to accept the partnership offer? I suspect they know the ABM deployment REALLY has no significant strategic threat, but opposing it maintains relations with the Iranians with whom they do a great deal of business in arms, oil, and technology. GWBs move to offer a partnership is a smart one because it exposes the Russians true agenda--which is economic, not defense. The other possibility is this could be political posturing to establish a lead global position before US elections.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 14:49
reply Nuclear war fighting strategy?
[quote][With ABM technology] the "shielded" side could launch an attack, and intercept any retaliatory strikes from the other side. The "shield" therefore moves the nuclear arms system on from MAD to one of "nuclear war fighting ability". This effectively lowers the threshold at which nuclear arms can be used.
Mike, is this analysis not correct?[/quote] [quote=Iron Mike] That would only be correct if ABMs were deployed in sufficient numbers to counter a retalitory strike. The Russian ICBMs number in the hundreds--most have multiple warheads--the 10 ABMs deployed would have an insignificant effect on a Russian counterstrike. [/quote] 10 ABMs deployed in Location A, sure, no problem; but then another 10 deployed in Location B, and Location C. And then, uh-oh, the 10 in Location A has turned into 20. Then consider that a US nuclear first strike might destroy 90% of Russia's nukes in their silos. This is how things appear from the Russian side of this system of mutual paranoia. That is why we feel that the Missile Shield is a dangerous move towards a nuclear war fighting strategy. Not to mention that it is a monumental waste of money that could be devoted to ... well, fighting fires in California, for instance. (Incidentally, is it me, or is California having more fires nowadays?)
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-25 16:49
reply .
I have a sneaking suspicion that the missile defense that the Americans wish to deploy in Eastern Europe in nothing more than a long term strategic ploy by an American government that had already anticipated Russian interference on Iran. You know, a sort of 'oh you want don't want us to put our missiles on your doorstep, who knew? Ok, stop interfering on Iran and well call the whole thing off because we're such good guys'. It's as if there is a chess match going on with the prize being control of the Middle East oil reserves. At any rate the Russians who have probably been dancing to an American tune have just made things much more complicated for Mr. Bush as the Chinese government has just released a statement that says the American European Missile plan will undermine the global strategic balance. Given that such a diplomatic strong statement was given during a meeting between the Russian and Chinese foreign ministers, I wonder if the Russians are finally getting tired of playing the dancing fool.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 14:19
reply Even if true
"GWBs move to offer a partnership is a smart one because it exposes the Russians true agenda--which is economic, not defense." Iron Mike The economy is the basis of military capacity. For this reason, the entire export gain of Iraq, 95% of the economy, was held under the control of the US/UK as leading members of the UN Iraq Sanctions Committee. It now remains under US control. US military control is designed to provide fat benefits to the US military industry and associates. I'd like to have a look at Dick Cheney's net worth, before and after the US aggression against Iraq.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 14:46
reply Pragmatism
Mike, It's long past time for Europeans to kick American troops and military installations out of Europe. Protecting the 'US homeland' is not our major concern, especially since it is the world's leading rogue state and most likely to trigger nuclear conflict.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 22:54
reply Avoiding the truth again?
Eric, No counter-argument to the obvious argument that we must change to meet emerging threats in a changing world of state-sponsored and non-state terror that supersede treaties signed 30 years prior? I know its easier to trot out tired rhetoric rather than actually engage on the issues, but your last post is unusually lazy...even for you.
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-24 23:54
reply Emerging threats
Mike, The United States is widely seen as the greatest and well emerged threat to peace. One of the ploys is to use NATO as an instrument of American foreign policy, as in Afghanistan. The appropriate change to meet this development is to dissolve NATO and request the departure of American forces and installations from European Union soil.
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-25 10:22
reply Intentions of USA
First of all it is not the case that these sites in Europe are any significant military threat to Russia. Russia has been offered every visibility into what the capability would be, and it is not offensive. It is simply ludicrous to suggest that this is any real military threat to Russia. On the other hand, it is another pointer to Russia's diminished power in the world that such weapons can be placed on territory they previously controlled. To accept this would be politically damaging to Putin, and this must be obvious to GWB's advisors. It will have the effect of galvanising more home support for Putin, who now seems bent on reviving Russia's aging military might. I can't see this as a good thing overall. Russia does wish to protect its trade with Iran, but I suspect that Putin's reaction is more to do with avoiding a loss of face when trying to give the impression of Russia's new found confidence. The siting of such a defence system is logical to the US military and would have been something on a list of requests. My suspician is that there would be a number of alternatives that could have avoided this confrontation. These decisions are not free from political maneouvering.
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-25 13:50
reply The siting of such a defence system
is logical to the US military. Englishman And, hence, deeply offensive to Europe. Should we, logically, site our military systems on US soil? America should be kicked out of Europe.
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-25 15:22
reply What country has over 700
What country has over 700 military bases in 130 Countries around the planet? ( Hint, it's not Russia) What country invaded and occupied two other nations and is trying to drum up support (Domestic and foriegn) for doing the same to a third? (Clue, it's not Russian, or Communist. ) Ever seen a pair of F22's fly overhead at an air show?...... congratulations, you've just watched almost 700 million US taxdollars go by. two thirds of billion dollars. I bet you could build quite a few decent schools or even a good sized hospital for some city in America with that kind of money. You could repair a few bridges.....build some honest flood protection, ( Anyone here remember and mourn New Orleans? Or look forward to visiting the mickey mouse replacement Bush might eventually get round to rebuilding?)... fight fires...etc. Then you could consider what it could buy in the way of foriegn policy..... For example, that's more then the entire Health budget of a small african nation like Malawi.
As for Malawi's education budget.... don't even ask, one quarter of it was spent last year burying teachers who died of Aids. Think about how much it would mean to one small nation that a country like America would dedicate the cost of just one of it's Aircraft to supporting them. But I forgot.."We" decided to "forgive" Malawi their foreign debt ( Taxdollars wrote that off)... thereby allowing "Vulture funds", Some of them headed by people known to Bush, to move in and strip Malawi of it's last remaining cash. Essentially, a straightforward transfer of tax dollars to Republican supporting Billionaires stopping only for the briefest of moments in Malawian coffers, ( If you want to know how your taxes, that you were told were going to help the poorest people on this planet making a dollar a day or less ... end up in the pockets of some of the richest people on this planet... follow the link below) http://www.mathaba.net/0_index.shtml?x=567474 And when it comes to the Bush "15 Billion fund for AIDS in Africa".... apart from the CEO's of Pharmaceutical Companies in the form of bonuses.... no-one's seen any practical use of it...... though there are a lot of pamphlets floating around which basically say "Don't F*ck anyone or you'll die!" in various African languages Meanwhile...... the American taxpayer will be doing the following....(Courtesy of Bush and Congress)
Give 30 billion dollars worth of Weaponry to the Israeli's in the next ten years, Give about 20 billion dollars worth of weapons to the Eygptians over the same time period... and sell around twelve billion dollars worth to the Saudis.
Anyone else here think that the Republicans are using Taxpayer dollars to arm and fund both sides of the next, but one, major mid east War? Anyone here think the typical US taxpayer is ....aware of....has been informed about....or gave permission for ..... his or her tax dollars to be used in this fashion? Oh... and the Congressional Budget Office now state they expect the war in Afghanistan and Iraq to cost 2.4 trillion dollars..... Or 8,000 dollars for every man, woman and child in America. When you take into account Bush and the republicans swear that money can't be found to take care of the medical needs of America's own children (SCHIP). All you can do is wish America luck in finding the 2.4 trillion for the Bush\Cheney wars. DaveGood
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-25 22:15
reply Military logic
Eric, I suggest you take a look at a map. Not a flat map or projection , but a globe. You will see that the site in Eastern Europe is positioned roughly on a great circle route from Iran to the USA. The UK could also be used but not so effectively because an ICBM would be very high at this point and not so easy to intercept. I am not sure how to interpret your question about placing our defence systems on US soil. If we were in danger of attack from (say) Mexico, that make some sense. There isn't a symmetry here. Of course the Czech Republic and Poland will benefit financially from such a deal and I suspect enjoy the prospect of embarrassing Russia. Those who think this is in any way effective against Russian ICBMs should also take a look at the geography. Russian territory is very, very big and would require a ABM array across the whole of the arctic. Eastern Europe is irrelevant to ICBMs aimed at the USA and launched from most of the obvious launch sites in Russian territory. There would be advantage if it was ever thought that Russia would again choose to attack Europe. This is unlikely, but reduces Russia's future military options. Russian generals would certainly be upset about this and, conversely, Czech and Polish generals rather pleased.
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-25 22:11
reply a look at a map.
I was thinking of the imperialist arrogance of placing US military installations on European soil. The idea of setting up European military capability in the USA would be to show who is top dog.
Submitted on Thu, 2007-10-25 22:47
reply Unaffordable Paranoia
I would like to back Dave Good's piece, above. Whatever the niceties of the Missile Shield idea, and whatever rationalisations may exist for any other piece of military hardware, the bottom line is that the need for this level of military spending can be described as institutional psychosis. Psychosis, in that it is detached from reality. More precisely, it is a paranoid psychosis, the imaginary idea that others want to attack you. More precisely still, it can be described as paranoia mutualis caesarii, a mutual paranoia of the leaderships, who escalate their arms spending in mutual reaction to the others' spending. We simply cannot afford to continue with this nonsense. Greenpeace has a saying: "How ironic to live in fear of terrorism, only to die of global heating". Rationally, we can avoid eco-collapse, but only if we forego the dubious luxury of insanely expensive equipment of destruction, and apply our minds to living in harmony with environmental processes and with each other.
Submitted on Fri, 2007-10-26 15:45
reply institutional psychosis
Richard, How do you suppose this ailment will be cured? My suggestion has been that a little nuclear incident, with a few million killed, might be the necessary dose of reality to concentrate minds on taking steps towards peace. Do you have a better idea?
Submitted on Fri, 2007-10-26 16:37
reply United by common vulnerability
In a way, we share a view: a greater threat can overcome petty diffferences. Your threat is the possibility of a nuclear incident. Mine is the present reality of global heating. The lion and the gazelle run from the forest fire side by side. Celtic and Rangers supporters cheer at the same time when Scotland is playing England. Palestinians and Israelis could collaborate in managing water...er.. well, or not, as the case may be. Humanity would unite in fighting aliens from the Horse Head Nebula (even if they were only crop circle enthusiasts, no doubt). Differences may disappear through shared purpose. The real threat to humaninty is eco-collapse. In responding to this reality in a rational way, we could come to our senses and find a common purpose that would engage us intellectually, economically and socially to constructive ends. Yes, I know it is far fetched, this notion that we should forego our ingrained military madness and start to behave rationally, but I have seen it happen in individuals, and I will continue to choose to behave and believe as if it could happen this way, because that makes a peaceful outcome more likely, to the infinitesimal extent that I have any influence on this vast system of summated motivations that constitutes the world we live in.
Thanks for asking.
Submitted on Fri, 2007-10-26 22:13
reply Iron Mike is a little off
Iron Mike is a little off colour these days because he built a career as a US Airforce staff officer (Judging from his CV, he was piloting desks through most of it).
It must have looked a good choice twenty or thirty years ago when rivers of Gold flowed freely through the Airforce on it's way to the likes of Boeing for all those big ticket items and any average, or even below par, Air force staffer could take early retirement and be assured of top notch swilling at the publicly funded trough of some "Military contractor" or other. Like former Air force Major General Earnest O. Robbins who, when asked by a congressional committee earlier this year why the Baghdad Police Academy (built at a cost to the US taxpayer of of 72 million dollars) by the corporation he chose to "work" for, was so shoddily designed and constructed that it was literally stained from top to bottom in human Sh*t and Urine? http://www.alternet.org/columnists/story/60950/Basically, the Air force General heroically told Congress he didn't have a clue, and gave a big fat "NO", in answer to the question of would the Corporation he now "worked" for would repay anything back to the US Taxpayer. Iron Mike dreams of the day he can be another Earnest O. Robbins and I look forward to reading Iron Mike's defense here describing the former Air force General as an example of a good American Patriot doing a tough job on behalf of the American people. Iron Mike must now find it immensely galling that even though the US Airforce is grinding it's aircraft to dust with round the clock Sorties over desert terrains it was never designed for.... It's getting damn all in the way of funding these days. The only projects The US Airforce has funding for now is a search and rescue helo.... The replacement for the tanker fleet ..... Which, for those who care about such things, has huge scandals, bribes, corruption, backhanders and high ranking USAF personnel doing time, surrounding it. Perhaps Iron Mike can fill us in on the details? (And If he won't, I can.) and the JSF, a small. light-weight, short range, fighter. These days if you want funding for a big budget weapons program, you have to be able to slap Green paint on it.
Such as the Mine resistant Ambush protected Vehicles the Army is currently buying, 15,000 of them, costing twenty billion dollars, all of them thirty year old South African designs or derivatives there of... Oh... and the Army plans to Junk them real quick just as soon as they can get the replacement for the twenty year old hummer to kick in. Incidentally, price of a basic hummer to the US military in year 2001? Less then thirty two thousand dollars, price today? Over two hundred thousand. Of course, these MRAP's won't fit on the Airforces C130 fleet (which is now worn-out anyway.) rendering the Airforce pointless in one of it's major roles.
Meanwhile ( And Iron Mike must find this real galling considering how long they've sucked at the Airforces engorged teat)... Boeing have run an endpass around the Airforce and gone straight to the Army offering them ( And with a straight face) their C17 Globemaster as a solution to the Armies dire need for a short take off and landing Cargo aircraft meant to operate off rough ground that can carry the MRAP's
No pilot I've spoken too believes a C17 ("Variable pressure tyre "modifications included) will survive more then three or four landings on short runways, rough ground. The c17's Undercarraige won't take it... that hasn#t stopped Boeing from trying to sell the US Army worthless kit at a cost of billions to the US Taxpayer though. I think Iron Mike would slot right in at Boeing.
Inter service rivalry can be a bitch and Iron Mike belongs to the service that has lived off the fat of the land for the last four decades but finds itself the runt of the litter now.
As for you Mr Richard Lawson.... Salute! :)... you have assessed correctly that I don't believe for one second that this bogus "GWOT" is the only or even most serious danger facing the The USA or the planet. and neither do the best brains at the Pentagon
I don't know if you ever read a report produced by a Pentagon think tank in 2004 headed by Andrew Marshall ? It was suppressed by the US defence chiefs so Iron Mike wouldn't have seen it, it would have been well above his paygrade.
In Summary it stated that Global climate destruction was a far greater threat then Terrorism, that it would lead to Mass starvation, forced Migrations, and wars over dwindling resources that would cause an estimated 500 million deaths in the next thirty to fifty years. Something for us all to look forward too. PS. If "Iron Mike" isn't prepared to discuss the horrifying corruption that long ago engulfed the USAF weapons procurement process and the Republican Party? Too bad, I will.
DaveGood
Submitted on Sun, 2007-10-28 21:57
reply far fetched
"I know it is far fetched, this notion that we should forego our ingrained military madness and start to behave rationally" Richard Lawson It's not just far-fetched, Richard. It's completely potty. In the first place, it's not irrational to sacrifice the lives of others for personal gain. I doubt if the bank accounts of Bush, Cheney and co. have suffered commensurately with the agonies they have inflicted on others. On the contrary, in common with many in the military industry, they may benefit finanancially, if not immediately, in the longer term. Financial benefit is not the be-all and end-all, granted. If we take the example of our very own Tony Blair, he now enjoys, as well as the pay and perks of the job, the prestige, the deference, the influence (among his staff at least) of being the Quartet Middle East envoy. And, I don't think we should fear for his self-esteem or doubts about his ultimate fate, here or in the world to come. I'm sure he's convinced he has done well, while admitting to a some 'mistakes' in the, generally, estimable effort. Therefore, any sudden change of mind without some extremely powerful jolt to the system would be truly miraculous and something, as such, of which there can be no rational expectation. On the subject of nuclear disarmament, it is clear that no progress has been made and that, overall, the situation is worse, than it was in 1970 when the Non-Proliferation Treaty came into force. Our leaders may be hoping to survive any nuclear event in their underground shelters but, for the rest of us, if we're still around, we can only hope that minds will have been changed on the value of peace through disarmament.
Submitted on Sat, 2007-10-27 10:49
reply The Wicked Prosper
Blair, President of Europe
Tony Blair, who would call forth Lamentations of a new Jeremiah, is in line for the Presidency of Europe and a £200,000 salary with all privileges and perks. The wicked prosper. ...
"After standing down as Prime Minister in June, Mr Blair became the Middle East peace envoy for the Quartet – the United States, Russia, the United Nations and the EU. Yesterday his spokesman did not rule out him taking up the new EU post but said: "He is focusing on his current role in the Middle East.""
http://tinyurl.com/34vbrt
Submitted on Sat, 2007-10-27 18:20
reply It really isn't how it works
Eric, it is good to see you write more that terse one-liners. It is absolutely right to be cynical about what politicians say, and it is also right to say that many enjoy the prestige and power that is bestowed upon them courtesy of being elected. But it is almost certainly not right to believe that these people do the job they do for the money. I know one or two politicians and, whatever else they be accused of, aiming to get a good return on the investment of their time is not one that springs to mind. Of course they would all do their best to get (financially) what they can out of the job, but this is a long way from being a prime motivation. Believe me, there are much easier ways of earning a living than being a politician. It is my impression that virtually all people who go into politics do so because they are politically or morally motivated to do so. Getting elected (in the UK) needs commitment to one of the main parties and that is where the compromises start and where there is a need to accept a degree of a bending of their own view in favour of that of the party. Those who succeed in getting to high rank need to do this the most and I think this that is corrupting and why people find it hard to believe what politicians say. Two senior UK politicians who have nearly avoided this are Claire Short and, on the other wing of politics, Ann Widdecombe, both of whom say what they believe more than most. There are many low rank politicians who are, of course, reasonably genuine in saying what they think is right. Those successful in politics need to win over opinion by negotiation, pursuasion, threat or often whatever other means are available. They also have to be able to handle, and even enjoy, the power that comes with the responsibility and I think this is another corrupting influence. Politics in the USA is different in that it demands huge finacial support to get into the more senior positions. Personally, I think this is bad because it builds in the influence of money right at the start, but on the other hand, I really doubt that personal gain really plays too much of a role in decision making. The guys at the top have a fair bit of money anyway. The desire for prestige and power, for its own sake, can also be corrupting though. The problem in the US is the power possessed by those who back the candidates and the debt that is often repaid by the politicians involved. This rarely is outright corruption of an illegal kind, but is more akin to the British "old boys" network resulting in a degree of mutual back-scratching and frequently a shared belief in a common political goal that may not necessarily be overt, except in a very general sense. The organisation of lobby groups in the USA has become a political subject in its own right. These groups have become very influential in guiding public opinion via manipulation of the media and by their members obtaining influential positions. It can be argued that this is legal and open to all pursuasions to adopt such methods, but it certainly takes a lot of money to be effective and so favours certain groups more than others. It is a much more powerful lobby system than anything in the UK, which is limited by statute. It is well know that the arms industry has a big say in US politics. This is everything from Boeing to Smith and Wesson. It would be fair comment to say that wars favour these companies as does the required paranoia regarding possession of personal firearms. It would also be fair to say that USA inc. would be worse off (at least in the short term) if these companies did not continue to make money. It is in this sense that there is some built in drive to maintain a state of high alert and national paranoia. The whole economic base has grown around these developments and a maintenence of the world's largest military force. You are rarely going to get a senior US general saying that we should spend a whole lot less on weapon systems. This is partly job preservation but more that, they simply do not think that way. What I am saying here is that most of the people are not exactly corrupt in any simple sense, and they would not see themselves this way, but that whole systems get built with a bias that is hard to counter or dismantle. Accusing individual people of being corrupt is not right or fair, at least in most cases, but it is the whole system that needs breaking down and rebuilding. I find it hard to see how to do this because it is not even perceived as there being anything wrong from within. Maybe Eric is right that a small nuclear war may work, but it seems a bit severe.
Submitted on Sat, 2007-10-27 18:29
reply corrupt in any simple sense
Englishman, Our very own Tony Blair is a case in point. I wouldn't contend that he was 'in it for the money", from the start. His finances have blossomed very satisfactorily, just the same. His prestige is burnished to a high shine, although not with everybody. His conscience, I feel, is clear, with a few dark spots where 'mistakes were made'. As you say "the whole system that needs breaking down and rebuilding". It's very unfortunate that this is the case but, nevertheless, it is the case.
Submitted on Sat, 2007-10-27 18:47
reply USAF Fails in mission, America uses Russian Aircraft instead
From the Army Times, Oct 29th "The Air Force has been forced to use Russian commercial cargo jets to rush Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles from the U.S. to Iraq because it does not have enough C-5 and C-17 planes to do the job, the service’s top civilian official said recently." Since the Gold plated, fabulously expensive, USAF is not fit for purpose and can not do the most basic of jobs such as moving kit from A to B, Cheney's outsourced his war to Russia .... I've given up counting the number of ways this has swung from Irony to humiliation... The only way America can stay in the fight is by hiring Russia, useing China's money, to help out. DaveGood PS. Perhaps our resident USAF colleague "Iron Mike" can come here and explain why? "Iron Mike's" Resume as posted with Open democracy.... "Biography Retired US Air Force officer currently employed as a senior military analyst. Education: B.S Criminal Justice, University of Cincinnati 1979, Masters Public Administration, University of Oklahoma 1989, Graduate, Air Command and Staff College 1998, Air War College 2003."
Submitted on Mon, 2007-10-29 23:41
reply
---
Loads of idea's
Loads of idea's Cyromax. But I'm prepared, for now, to take what he says about himself at face value... He wouldn't be the first person who had a terrific resume but was actually crap at his job. DaveGood
Submitted on Mon, 2007-10-29 23:59
reply
---
USAF to be disbanded?
There is steam gathering behind the idea that the USAF is not just obsolete in a world where counter-insurgency wars look to be the future, they are actually counter-productive.
For instance, in August this year, British Officers fighting the Taliban asked for an end to USAF strikes in Helmand province in Afghanistan because it led to far too many civilian casualties.
And the Lancet study of Civilian deaths in Iraq estimate the USAF has killed somewhere between 50 to 100 thousand civilians there.
The USAF has gone defensive publishing it's own version of the Counter-insurgency manual which bemoans "Boots on the ground Zealots"... but no-one finds it convincing.
So much so that military bloggers who can usually be relied on to wave poms poms for the the USAF are now herding together calling it for it to be disbanded and it's assets handed over to the Navy, the Army and the Marines who they hope will use them in more responsible manner. Plus you can save a ton of money in Pentagon overheads.
And they do not shy away from pointing out that, in a world where countries like Venezuela has acquired the means to stop B52's and B1's, the Airforce's strategy of building a big fleet of short range light wieght fighters is expensively pointless. I don't suppose the idea will get that far, there's way too much pork and corruption involved for those who live off it to let it . For starters Boeing ( Who pay F*ck all in taxes but get billions of tax dollars shoveled down it's throat every year) would stand revealed as as the bloated subsidized Corporation it actually is, not the lean, world beating technology leader it likes to claim to be. But some serious military thinkers out there believe the USAF is now an expensive liability. Would "Iron Mike" like to comment? And while he's at it, he can talk us through how the the JSF (also known as the f-35), sold to Congress as cheaper then the f-16, ended up costing twice as much, if not more.
DaveGood
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-30 21:46
reply Nice to be missed!
Gosh...gone a few days supporting contingency operations and nice to see I've been missed. :-) Too many spears coming my way to field all in a single post. But in response to questions and insults about my posted "resume," I have been up front in previous posts why I posted my background. I don't post it to brag, only to provide readers some context for my point of view. I am not yet satisfied with my professional accomplishments. That's why I continue to serve in a senior analyst role, leveraging my expertise to military planning efforts. Nor do I much care of others opinion here of my "resume." I'm here to engage and learn from you. I sharpen my arguments here and gain a cultural and political perspective different from my own. I gain nothing by listening to a chorus from only my own side. [quote]If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle. Sun Tzu[/quote] I don't suggest all of you are the enemy (well...except maybe Dave Good and Brendan). [Offered as a good natured jibe for you humorless liberals out there.] But you represent points of view that might be held by those whose intentions go beyond the arena of discussion. Disparage my "resume" if you will, but you do yourselves a disservice since it seems to discourage others from posting theirs. I notice that very few of you have the courage to post your own. Are you embarrassed...ashamed...gutless? Frankly, I think it would be fascinating to see the context for YOUR posts. I challenge you to post something of your education and professional background to give context to your rantings. :-) But don't expect me to treat your "resume" with disrespect as many of you have done with mine. Attacking someone's resume is a poor substitute for attacking someone's argument.
Submitted on Tue, 2007-10-30 22:01
reply Mike
[quote]I don't suggest all of you are the enemy (well...except maybe Dave Good and Brendan). [Offered as a good natured jibe for you humorless liberals out there.] But you represent points of view that might be held by those whose intentions go beyond the arena of discussion.[/quote]
Dude, just because I choose to be rude to you is not an indication that I consider you an enemy of mine. That would be silly, I'm here to refine my own opinions as well. This can only be done by testing ones ideas thereby expanding ones point of view. Occasionally, when someone begins regurgitating recognizable talking points it seems to me that rudeness or boorishness is an appropriate method of emphasis to a response, as the response is to those talking points. I'm not even anti-American, I only discriminate against around 24% of Americans, that means I wholeheartedly support the majority. Go figure.
;)
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-31 20:30
reply erm....
erm....
Does the post above read as anything more then vacuous complacency? Specific questions concerning facts of which his "resume" implies he has some serious knowledge have been put to "Iron Mike". Anyone see answers? Responses?
I thought "Iron Mikes" Absence might have been caused by a visit to his nearest branch of Testicles "R" Us to acquire the pair he's in need of. Christ almighty..... Even Civilians like Alan Greenspan had the courage to to go public about the real reasons for this war... and I quote... “I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil,”... "Iron Mike" can't screw up the nerve to do that much :(
DaveGood PS... and if you want Quotes "Iron Mike"... try this one ... " The Sinews of War is Gold"... who said that? And don't look it up on the internet (Too late, you've already typed it into Google). Never mind, you can explain the significance of that quote to the rest of us, considering the fact that Cheney\Bush has to borrow almost three billion dollars EVERY GODDAMN DAY while fighting\losing two mid-east\Asian wars in small failed states against people armed with not much more then RPG's, and sandals?
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-31 00:03
reply Quote for quote
You expected all your questions to be answered in a single post? I'm flattered. Actually Dave, your posts brings to mind a more cogent quote. [quote]Your manuscript is both good and original, but the part that is good is not original and the part that is original is not good. ~ Samuel Johnson[/quote] You might be surprised to learn that I share much of your disdain of the defense acquisition process. You point out some good examples, but forgot the V-22. How careless of you. Equally disgusting are scandals which I have more direct knowledge, like the Litton Corp. fleecing of the US government which poured millions into a replacement CONUS-wide air defense radar system. The government cancelled the contract when Litton could not deliver as promised and we ended up with nothing. It took 9/11 to spur the government into sourcing a replacement system through Raytheon. You lose credibility points when you go on ad nauseum over Cheney getting rich through the war, blah, blah, blah. Not original or interesting and devoid of any evidence. Disbanding the USAF may be some wet dream of yours, but you fail to provide any evidence to support it. British criticism of airstrikes is a huge leap of logic to disbanding the air force. Not effective? Google "Reaper" UAV and see what airpower brings to asymmetrical warfare. And if Alan Greenspan was so courageous, he would have levied his criticism while he was still in the administration and would not have distanced himself from his own comments when challenged afterwards. You conveniently neglected to include Greenspan's follow-up comments which provided the context for his original comments. [quote]Greenspan, who was the country's top voice on monetary policy at the time Bush decided to go to war in Iraq, has refrained from extensive public comment on it until now, but he made the striking comment in a new memoir out today that "the Iraq War is largely about oil." In the interview, he clarified that sentence in his 531-page book, saying that while securing global oil supplies was "not the administration's motive," he had presented the White House with the case for why removing Hussein was important for the global economy. "I was not saying that that's the administration's motive," Greenspan said in an interview Saturday, "I'm just saying that if somebody asked me, 'Are we fortunate in taking out Saddam?' I would say it was essential."[/quote] Gosh...I clicked on your screen-name and see you haven't posted any substantive profile yet. Looks like I'm not the one needing new testicles.:-)
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-31 13:31
reply Meanwhile, back to the thread...
[quote] Richard Lawson: 10 ABMs deployed in Location A, sure, no problem; but then another 10 deployed in Location B, and Location C. And then, uh-oh, the 10 in Location A has turned into 20. Then consider that a US nuclear first strike might destroy 90% of Russia's nukes in their silos. This is how things appear from the Russian side of this system of mutual paranoia. That is why we feel that the Missile Shield is a dangerous move towards a nuclear war fighting strategy. [/quote] C'mon Richard...you're not thinking this fully through. Deploying missile systems is not like sowing wheat. They just don't pop up in the spring. It requires significant logistics and ultimately, if the Russians are party to the technology and operation of the system, they have a stake in how and where they are deployed and employed. You fail to address this critical part of the equation and I really want to know how making the Russians a PARTNER is a bad thing. Transparency and partnership difuse the threat, not the politics driving the rhetoric. BTW, Realists have a saying, "How ironic to live in fear of global heating, only to die of terrorism".
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-31 13:37
reply Thinking, Trusting, Seeing Sunbeams
[quote=Iron Mike]
C'mon Richard...you're not thinking this fully through.[/quote] You're right Mike. I must think it through fully. The US gets bombs which can kill 200,000 in an instant, so Russia, UK France and China must have them too, and this keeps the peace for 50 years because they have this effect of raising the threshold at which politicians declare war, but only if the politician is Sane. US UK Russian French and Chinese leaders are Sane and to be trusted with nukes even though sometimes they behave more like cheese eating surrender monkeys. Sane politicians now have some 25,000 nukes worldwide (a 50% reduction on Cold War times), equivalent to 5 tonnes of TNT for every man woman and child on the planet, which is a really Sane and Trustworthy amount to have. Every schoolboy knows that "Nuclear weapons keep the peace". Q: So why not give ten Nukes to every prime minister and president on the planet and stop all wars world wide? A: Because some politicians are untrustworthy and might be mad enough to use them. But any politician, evern the least trustworthy, can see how powerful it makes you to have nukes (after all , why else should UK and France be on the UNSC?), and how safe, and so Israel, Pakistan and India now have some too, but luckily they are all Sane and can be Trusted not to use them, but if North Korea and Iran get them they are definitely not sane and so must not be allowed to have them. And if Mr O. Bin Laden (not those other Bin Ladens, mind, the business associates of George Bush Senior, who are all so sane and trustworthy that we might sell them a dozen H-bombs if we can get them to agree on a price), if Osama got some he is definitely mad enough to use them, and would probably also make it worse by going "heheheheheheh" as he did so. So Iran must be stopped even if it means dropping nuclear weapons on their factories. The world will trust us and understand that we only do this because the wily Iranian leader Mr ArmoureDinnerJacket has buried them so far below ground that he leaves us no choice. (Russia can bomb Iran too, if it would make it feel more included?). But when we have stopped Iran, there are other Mad Dictators who will feel the need to have the security that a only a solid arsenal of nukes can provide. We Realists have to face the fact that proliferating nuclear weapons are a wee bit of a Problem. Mr Kissinger has said this and he is Mr Trustworthy Sane Kissinger. So what is the answer? Definitely not to negotiate in good faith to rid the world of nuclear weapons forever and completely, even though we did cut them by 50% in the START treaty, and even though that is what Mr Henry Kissinger thinks should be done. We should definitely not agree to take a $100 chainsaw to all the ICBMs while they are in their silos (yes, folks, that's all it takes to kill an ICBM) That is a stupid answer that comes from stupid greenies and peaceniks who are weedy and stupid and cannot Think. The answer is to spend tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in dotting the world with high technology Missile Shield gear that will be able to destroy these self same ICBMs while they are in the air. Yes siree. While they are in the actual air, and coming our way. Bang! Zap! Problem solved. And if Russia objects, they can have some of the technology, and they can kill our missiles when they are in the air too, and coming their way. And Russian and US technology can kill Iranian and Chinese ICBMs while they are in the air too, even if the Chinese come up with Multiple Independent Targeting for their warheads which are wily and cunning enough to try to Get Past The Missile Sheild (which they will not be able to do, anyway). And the Russian shield will be able to kill the US incoming ICBMs just so long as they keep up with their payments. They can trust us that the SatNav stuff will all work even though our countries are at war.Why ever should it not? Trust us...just trust us. I try to trust, Mike, but when I sing "Jesus wants me for a sunbeam", I can only see those rays coming out of a mushroom cloud. Richard
Submitted on Wed, 2007-10-31 22:33
reply making the Russians a PARTNER
Mike, What's the source for thi |