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Climate Change Denialist Sand Pit
This thread is for people who do not believe that anthropogenic climate change is taking place. It is a place for them to express their feelings and paste chunks of climate change denial text.
Before you do, please read the following links:
Exxon Secrets http://tinyurl.com/3782lx showing the way Exxon has tried to distort the debate.
The scientific consensus on climate change http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686
YouTube video on which way to bet : http://tinyurl.com/2w3fc9
New Scientist on environment: http://environment.newscientist.com/search.ns?doSearch=true&query=climate+change+faq
The Royal Society guide: http://royalsoc.org/page.asp?id=6229
The Royal Society is the oldest, most prestigious, and most serious minded bunch of peeps on the planet. They are NOT a bunch of hippies.
Oh - and here is one last link: for you Exxonites:
Denial is a defense mechanism in which a person is faced with a fact that is too painful to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence. The subject may deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether (simple denial), admit the fact but deny its seriousness (minimisation) or admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility (transference). The concept of denial is particularly important to the study of addiction*.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial
Enjoy your cut and paste activities, y'all.
Richard
*that would be oil addiction to oil in this case
Submitted on Fri, 2007-11-16 14:49
You are a sad little person
You are a sad little person for calling people that don't buy into the panic Exxonites.
As for the royal society
As for the royal society not being hippies, they did manage to publish this: "While there are larger concentrations of other gases in the atmosphere, such as nitrogen, because they do not have these heat trapping qualities they have no effect on warming the climate whatsoever." An "other gas" water vapor is responsible for all the heat that is trapped in the atmosphere. The CO2 capability for trapping heat in the atmosphere is based on hypothesis that have not been proven, not even through experiments. And as always: prove me wrong. Quote from Royal Society
"...While there are larger concentrations of other gases in the atmosphere, such as nitrogen, because they do not have these heat trapping qualities they have no effect on warming the climate whatsoever.
Water vapour is the most significant greenhouse gas. It occurs naturally, although global warming caused by human activities will indirectly affect how much is in the atmosphere through, for example, increased evaporation from oceans and rivers. This will, in turn, cause either cooling or warming depending on what form such as different types of clouds the water vapour occurs in.
Humans have been adding to the effect of water vapour and other naturally occurring greenhouse gases by pumping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere through, for example, the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Before industrialization carbon dioxide made up about 0.03 per cent of the atmosphere or 280ppm (parts per million). Today, due to human influence it is about 380ppm. Even these tiny quantities have resulted in an increase in global temperatures of 0.75ºC (see misleading argument 1). "
Misleading quote
I was astounded by the quote of the Royal Society by steven_12 so I searched for it on Google and came up with this: http://www.science-academy.org.uk/page.asp?tip=1&id=6777 which carries on as stated by Richard above. It is like making a quote "jumping off tall buildings is good" but missing out "if you want to die" afterwards. It is well beyond the ability of the space here, or any of the people writing here (I suspect) to provide proof of the greenhouse effect of CO2. On the other hand I expect Steven is arguing 1. Global warming doesn't exist and 2. but if it does its not caused by man and 3. in any case there is nothing we can do about it. This has been the steady progression of fall back positions adopted by people who made up their minds and now simply refuse to accept any arguments that may show their entrenched positions may be wrong. The greenhouse effect results from absorbtion and emission of infra red radiation which slows down the cooling of the earth at night. The effects of this versus the concentration of CO2 and the relative effects of other greenhouse gases (water vapour, methane etc.) which also have infra red absorbtion spectra is very, very complex. The theory of the physics is well understood but how this affects the climate is complex because of the reactive effects of the climate and numerous other phenomena that can also affect climate. The only way the analysis can be done reliably is to build up sophisticated computer models that try to take into account as many of the interfering effects as possible and to see how these models, when applied retrospectively, would have predicted the climate in the past. When this has been shown to be reasonably accurate they can be assumed to have a reasonable chance of predicting future effects. This is not a black vs white scenario and there can be no concrete proof about the effects of the rise of CO2. However, I think that the evidence pointing to its effect is substantial and I cannot think of any way to get better information and analysis that what has been done. It convinces me that there is enough evidence to suggest that we should act to reverse the rise of CO2 as soon as possible. Those who think otherwise are entitled to their opinions but, to my mind, are ignoring the best information available in favour of a blind belief or that there is some vast conspiracy.
I fully agree the warming
I fully agree the warming trend is real. I looked at a lot of the available data and they all agree that the warming trend started in the 1800's,way before man-made emissions were produced in sufficient amounts to have the impact that's sited here. The only - and really only - argument that's repeated and repeated and repeated all the time is this: CO2 concentrations have risen from X to Y. Temperature has risen as well. CO2 is thus responsible for this rise in temperature. This argument has been debunked long time ago but that's actively being ignored. Pseudo science throughout. It's like saying gay marriages killed the dinosaurs. Pseudo scientists all?
So Stephen, how do you explain that all the scientific associations in America and the UK (to quote the countries which I know about), whose job it is to study these things in depth and not to rush to ill-founded judgements, that these scientific societies have fallen victim to the "pseudo-science" of which you speak?
"Proof"
Steveapub asked about scientific consensus over on the climate change action thread. There is a common conception that science deals in proof. It does not. Popper showed that the best any scientific hypothesis or theory can attain is not-yet-disproven. Thomas Kuhn suggested that scientific consensus was equivalent to proof. So in the Kuhnian sense, AGW is "proven". Steveapub also suggested that the situation wrt AGW is like a cardiological surgeon wanting to do bypass surgery on someone with indigestion. Well, no. I can assure you that in the UK (I cannot answer for what happens in the USA, where money enters into the equation) this does not happen. You should really find a better analogy, but for the sake of argument, yes, individual cardiologists can make a diagnostic error, but if a whole roomful of cardiologist agree that tou need a bypass, it really is time to give up on your Rennies and sign the consent form. A better analogy is cancer. The surgeons are saying you have cancer, and that you need an operation. You do not want to have cancer, and you do not like hospitals, and so you have gone into denial. Happens all the time. It is a free country, so we can get you to sign a self discharge form to say we did warn you, and you can leave hospital. But this is not just you, Steve. This is all of us, and although you may not accept the scientific consensus, the rest of us accept the science and accept the consensus, and we willingly submit to the fossilfuelectomy operation that is on offer. So, sorry, you can stay here and rail against how unfair it is that you cannot keep on burning oil and coal, and how nobody will keep on talking to you, but over on the other side we have serious work to do. Good luck Richard
There's a clear distinction
There's a clear distinction between a hypothesis and a theory (which is synonymous for law). For example, Newton's laws of physics are widely accepted and are so far not disproved. Newton's law however coincides with quantum mechanics and quantum physics. Through developments in these fields scientists have discovered that while Newton's laws are a perfect match to everything that isn't nano in size these laws a sometimes contradicted in quantum physics. This however does not lead to the consensus that Newton's laws are proven wrong. The current consensus is that there are two fields - one describing the nano-sized world and another one describing everything that's bigger than nano. These are examples of accepted theories and accepted consensus. Then there are hypothesis. Turing's hypothesis is one example. This hypothesis is largely accepted through consensus since through empirical evidence it hasn't been disproved yet. However, since there is not yet a mathematical prove found it remains an hypothesis. This is an example of a consensus about an hypothesis. Man-made global warming is clearly an hypothesis. A large consensus doesn't do anything to turn it into anything else, let alone a theory. The scientific facts unearthed largely through geological records are sufficient to disprove any relationship between the current warming trend and man-made greenhouse emissions. Thus: there is scientific evidence that disproves the hypothesis beyond a reasonable doubt and there are no scientific facts to prove it. You may have a different view on the scientific method but you should understand that if you want to elevate man-made global warming beyond a hypothesis supported by consensus you will have to accept that any hypothesis supported by a crowd of fanboys will no longer have to provide proof what-so-ever to become proper scientific theory. Notable examples would be the law of intelligent design and the flighing spaghetti monster theory. You will also have to understand that scientific theories that are universally accepted - notably those in physics, biology, chemistry and mathematics and in many other domains - do no longer have to be supported by any scientific evidence. It's all fine and well to try to prove man-made global warming is a scientific theory through philosophical rhetorics. But that's not sufficient. You will also have to defend why man-made global warming resides on the same plateau as widely accepted and proven-beyond-a-doubt scientific theories and laws that don't support on these kind of rhetorics. I would be very happy to track your efforts to this end. I Rest My Case
>So Stephen, how do you
>So Stephen, how do you explain that all the scientific associations in America and the UK (to quote the countries which I know about), whose job it is to study these things in depth and not to rush to ill-founded judgements, that these scientific societies have fallen victim to the "pseudo-science" of which you speak?
I can't speak for any of these institutions or claim I understand their intentions. Neither can I say I'm familiar with their work.
What I'm looking for is scientific research that can make precise, verifiable predictions about the climate in the future. These predictions must prevail when verified and repeated by independent scientists, without any control being exerted by the original researchers.
The research and its predictions must withstand any and all test do disprove it by any means possible.
If the associations you're referring to are not involved in exactly that than I don't have an answer for that.
Richard
By not answering steven_12 directly, you seem to be confirming his point that believers in AGW are adherents to religiosity.
Rest your case as long as you wish but you have not proven it..
Misunderstanding science
Steven, you are misunderstanding, to some extent, how science works. Newton's laws are not really laws but theories. The use of the word "law" is convenient, but strictly, incorrect. The theories are wrong because they do not agree with measurements that are more accurately described by newer theories within quantum mechanics or relativity. Of course they are approximately correct and the accuracy is good enough in everyday life for the objects we deal with and at the speeds we deal with. In fact, to now, nobody has a single theory which explains quantum mechanics and relativity (there is a new theory that may work but has not yet been put to the test). All the theories are good enough to explain the parts they are aimed at until someone finds an exception. Then a rethink is needed. This is true of the whole of science. The essence is that nothing in science can be proven, only disproven. Onwards! Without people holding onto our anl;es!!
Hi Brendan
As Englishman says, since "proof" is not in the nature of science, neither I nor any other scientifically trained person can "prove" that man-made emissions are the cause of the dangerous global warming that we are currently witnessing. The weight of evidence however is sufficient to persuade the scientific community that we must reduce our emissions of GHGs.
In particular, it is not possible to "prove" anything to Steven, since he is quite clearly in denial. I have provided links above to the scientific evidence, and he has responded by taking a partial quote from the Royal Society in order to distort the truth.
What Steven chooses to believe is his own affair. My concern is to make sure that he does not attach himself to the ankles of those of us who wish to move forward in tackling climate change.
That is why I rest my case.
Richard
The correlation between the
The correlation between the current warming trend and man-made greenhouse gas emmissions has been disproved. It's as simple as that. You will go on with your political games but it doesn't change the simple scientific fact that the current warming trend is not man-made, as was the case for the previous one and the one before that and the one before that. By the way, why is the
By the way, why is the current warming trend dangerous?
You have not provided a
You have not provided a single link to scientific evidence. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Evidence
Hi Richard,
I do take your point, in part, that direct cause and effect need not be the measure required to take action. I also believe that the extent of the debate and the goal of a reduction in emissions are useful and desirable even if the link can never be proven. There are many reasons and advantages to moving away from the expensive and dirty sources of energy we are currently hooked on -- including global security.
That said, there is a tenor to this debate that is simply non-productive, including the silencing dissenting views by mockery -- as you have done by establishing this thread for instance, that can lead to divisive politics. There are those on the "fixed reduction targets" side of this debate who would sacrifice our economic system entirely to reduce carbon emissions and that is simply cutting off your nose to spite your face in my view. Let's keep the debate civil, rational, and realistic. We are after all, discussing long term trends that are natural even if they are accelerated by human activity.
One last note. I heard an interesting quote about climate models, and cloud formation in particular that caught my attention. The scientist made an assessment of what we currently know with climate models by making the following analogy: "If the climate is thought of as a 500 piece puzzle, we currently have approximately 16 pieces in place."
Cheers,
Brendan
Getting out of the sand pit
I do take your point, in part, that direct cause and effect need not be the measure required to take action. I also believe that the extent of the debate and the goal of a reduction in emissions are useful and desirable even if the link can never be proven. There are many reasons and advantages to moving away from the expensive and dirty sources of energy we are currently hooked on -- including global security.
...silencing dissenting views by mockery -- as you have done by establishing this thread for instance,
...
One last note. I heard an interesting quote about climate models, and cloud formation in particular that caught my attention. The scientist made an assessment of what we currently know with climate models by making the following analogy: "If the climate is thought of as a 500 piece puzzle, we currently have approximately 16 pieces in place."
Hi Brendan
Sorry that you feel I am silencing debate by mockery. On the other hand, denialists have had five or ten years of global dominance in the debate, and it could be argued that by insisting in arguing about the ABC when the rest of the world is trying to read the plays of Shakespeare, they are themselves stifling debate.
Anyway, what's wrong with a bit of satire?
The precautionary principle clearly weighs in on the side of taking action on global warming, and as you say, there are other very good reasons for breaking our addiction to fossil fuels, including their finite nature, acid rain, air pollution from particulates and VOCs, and economic monoculture (that is, the undue domination of the economy by one sector).
Re the 500-piece jigsaw, one of the things you never hear is a scientist saying, "Well, with this last piece of research, I can say that we have this corner completely sorted, and I do not need any more research grants, thank you very much." But your point is true: nobody
is claiming we understand everything about global warming, any more that we understand everything about the body; but we know enough to realise when both the body and the planet need medicine.
At the risk of being pedantic, I have carried your important point about the Fixed Reduction Targets over to the "Climate change: time to get real" thread for analysis.
Cheers
Richard
That's terrific.
What
That's terrific. What will happen is developed countries will impose emission restrictions on developing countries who will risk international sanctions if they don't comply. We're not there yet but we're well on our way. For western countries these restrictions are much easier to achieve. For developing countries it means their economic growth will be wiped out. All this based on seemingly reasonable yet bogus arguments. It's interesting you should call AGW non-believers as denialists. What you're doing is ordering the world such that developed countries gain access to the majority of remaining fossil fuels at the expense of developing countries. The opposite is true
Steve
With Contraction and Convergence, the opposite of Steve's account is true.
With C&C, a target for a safe level of global CO2 is set, countries are allocated CO2 on a per capita basis, and trading of the quota is allowed. The US will have to buy CO2 quotas from poor African countries, so there is an intrinsic tendency to economic convergence in the system.
Also, with the transfer of solar technology to developing countries, they will become energy rich, and Somalia may find itself exporting hydrogen to Europe. Given help with water conservation and management, green economics can really help to make poverty history.
Regards
Richard
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Joined: 2004-12-12