Libya: Another American Foreign Policy Mistake

We are all watching developments in Libya.  Tunisia and Egypt have disappeared from the headlines.  It is rather odd to me that of all the movements in the Arab world to remove long-entrenched dictators, the one that has gathered the strongest response from America is that in Libya.  America has frozen 30 billion in Libyan assets, and is positioning naval forces in the Meditteranean.  We are going to regret this.

America should be concentrating its efforts on aiding Egypt and Tunisia.  These are the two countries with perhaps the best odds at achieving democracy, should they survive the revolutionary turmoil that they are currently in.  A few days ago demonstaters in Tunisia were fired upon as they were protesting the interim government.  There were several deaths.  This is not good.  There is a fragile transition underway, and it could easily be derailed by such developments.

Libya is in the early stages of civil war.  "The Resistance" is gathering strength and has recently begun consolidating control over the oil fields in the east to use against the regime.  These are estimated to be 80% of Libyan production.  Mark my words: whoever the leaders in this "resistence" are that have taken control of the country's oil will not simply hand that control over to any hypothetical interim government.  Get ready for the warlords, people.

Whatever nastiness happens in Libya is now going to be stamped with the ubiquitous damnation, "American-backed".  Here is a sample of a future news article that the next generation of Eurotards will never allow us to forget:

"A ferry full of undocumented refugees fleeing the civil strife in Libya was intercepted off the coast of Sardinia this morning.  The humanitarian crisis in Libya continues to spiral out of control as the American-backed junta in Libya  persists in killing babies with impunity..."

Why do we (Americans) involve ourselves in efforts that have little chance of success, and thus guarantee that we are associated with the inevitable failure?  The intelligent strategy would be to pour all available energy and resources into developing democracy in Tunisia and Egypt, and leave Libya to Europe.

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Are you hoping for a world

Are you hoping for a world war?

I'm hoping for as broad a

I'm hoping for as broad a consensus as possible on the limits of dictatorial power. Also, I think the growing coalition will make "collateral damage" far less likely. I'd like the American pilots to sit this one out very soon. These Americans are a bit hair triggered if you had not noticed.

Yes, now that you remind me,

Yes, now that you remind me, I believe I have noticed. I believe it’s something they have in common with Gaddafi, who by the way, loved to go shopping for his armed forces. Nothing other forces need to be afraid of, but dangerous enough for civilian shipping and aircraft. Enough nations to pick of. And we can’t say it was he who escalated this into an international conflict of as broad a scale as possible.

If Gaddafi had had the bomb in time, he wouldn’t be in this trouble. I am sure that all tyrants on this planet are drawing the obvious conclusion just now and hurriedly doing something about it. Or at least a dirty bomb.  

I really wish I could share your optimism, but I think during the next years you will hear a few “told you so” from me. And I won’t enjoy it.

I am sure that all tyrants on

I am sure that all tyrants on this planet are drawing the obvious conclusion just now and hurriedly doing something about it.

I don't care about that. Honestly, I don't. Only non state actors can be a real threat to escalate violence in the way you are implying. I would prefer to be hopeful and also supportive of the collective actions of liberal democracies. The flaws in this thinking are tremendous, and I admit it. The flaw in thinking otherwise however, or the cynicism required to oppose a more muscular policy to support the amazing wave of anti-authoritarianism we have seen this spring, nauseates me.

We will see about the

We will see about the anti-authoritarionism of the Libyan counter-government fairly soon, I think.

The United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates has contributed 12 warplanes to the international no-fly zone over Libya, AFP news agency quotes a US official as saying.

They are doubtless being sent

They are doubtless being sent in order to defend anti-authoritarianism, democracy, and liberty. With that support nothing can go wrong.

Someone will suggest to repeat the experiment in Syria next, and then Iran, and then China, I imagine.

I think during the next years

I think during the next years you will hear a few “told you so” from me. And I won’t enjoy it.

Then don't say it. Nothing is more annoying. But really ... what are the odds you'll get the chance?

I am dicking around, waiting

I am dicking around, waiting for the NCAA basketball games to start.  For the hell of it, I am reading Pravda, enjoying the withering and relentless criticism of Russians who really don't seem to understand that the Cold War is over, and that Americans no longer consider them to be the adversaries that they once were.

Suddenly I find the most shockingly frank acknowledgement of the true nature of the war.  From an article called "Libyan War Damages Russia's Economic Interests", we see that the Russians really, I mean really, don't give a crap about any of this "humanitarian" nonsense:

The events in Libya are impacting the economic interests of Russia. While Russian raw materials companies working in this country may still cherish the hope to participate in some projects, the loss of Rosoboronexport's contract with the Jamahiriya will amount to over $4 billion. In the event of the victory of the Western coalition the country's weapons market will be closed for Russia.

With regard to the companies working directly on the territory of Libya, there are three most active Russian companies - Tatneft, Gazprom and the Russian Railways (RZD). Stroytransgaz has an office in the country as well.

Tatneft has been operating in the country for 6 years. The company received a concession to develop an oil block in the Ghadames (Unit 82-4) and won the rights to three oil blocks in the Sirte basin and Ghadames. The Russian company is involved in the projects under the production sharing agreement with Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC). In 2009 alone it has invested $43 million in the projects.

In 2007, following an exchange of assets with BASF company, Gazprom acquired 49% in oil concessions C96 and C97. According to the memorandum of cooperation with the National Oil Corporation of Libya (NOC) signed in 2008, Gazprom could take part in the tenders for the development of fields, mentions RBC Daily.

The company won the right to conduct exploration in the licensed areas #19 and #64. In mid-February, Russia's gas monopoly announced the purchase of the shares from Italy's Eni in the Libyan oil project Elephant (16.5%) for $163 million. The force majeure will likely prevent this deal from happening.

   

However, the fate of Iraq and Lukoil suggest that the raw materials companies may be welcomed back, albeit on much worse terms. The Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said that Russia was hoping to defend its economic interests in Libya, under any scenario in this country, The Moscow Post reports.

Since the opposition has failed to seize Libya right away, the forces behind the rebels have decided to legalize them and gave the rebels more or less official status. Post and telegraph are not very important in the current situation, so the Libyan oppositional National Transition Council has set up its own oil company (to replace the abovementioned NOC) and another nation's central bank, Bloomberg reports.

RZD has also contracted with Libya to build a 500-kilometer road Sirt - Benghazi, a modern high-speed (up to 250 mph) railway running along the Mediterranean coast and connecting major cities of the country. The project cost is 2.2 billion euros. To implement the project, a rail welding plant in Ras Lanuf has been launched.

With regard to the exports of the Russian arms, the head of Russian Technologies Chemezov estimated potential losses of $4 billion. However, Russia has only obtained this contract after it has cancelled the remaining Soviet-era state debt of Libya in the amount of $4.6 billion.

That is from the business pages of Pravda, not a classified government report!

http://english.pravda.ru/business/finance/24-03-2011/117309-libya_russia-0/

If there was ever an argument to liberalize all state-owned companies, there you have it.  Get rid of dictators that promote terrorism?  Hell no! 

Dictators make good for business--Russian style business.

looks like its time to bust

looks like its time to bust out the Bush doctrine.

"Why do they hate us?"  

"Why do they hate us?"   JFT

You do have some strange ideas. Personally, I would claim to know and appreciate the USA rather well, from Key West to Boston, from Seattle to San Diego, from Chicago to San Antonio.

Personally, I would claim to

Personally, I would claim to know and appreciate the USA rather well, from Key West to Boston, from Seattle to San Diego, from Chicago to San Antonio.

That sounds like a lot of wandering.  Were you sent on a United Nations mission to the city of Ontario?

 

It was all well-planned, and

It was all well-planned, and all paid for by myself. My many visits to the United States, generally go very smoothly, except for New York where there are occasional surprises, such as the limousine not being at the airport on time, but I've learned to roll with the punches in that very international city.

Really?  I always thought

Really?  I always thought that you were the type of guy that lived in his mom's basement and watched "Mad Max" over and over again.

Now Yemen. Gawd, at this rate

Now Yemen. Gawd, at this rate Iran will go democratic next week.

 Fighter jets intimidating

 Fighter jets intimidating demonstrators in Bahrain

The west’s staunch support of freedom and democracy is demonstrated by the choice of its allies.

 

  February 28 2011 at

 

February 28 2011 at 03:38am Reuters

United States President Barack Obama has urged the leaders of Bahrain to respect human rights after a cabinet reshuffle prompted by days of protests.

Washington - United States President Barack Obama on Sunday welcomed a move by Bahrain's government to reshuffle its cabinet and urged it to respect human rights.

"I welcome the announcement by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa about making important changes to the cabinet and restating his commitment to reform," Obama said in a statement.

http://tinyurl.com/6zhwtd9

Momo,Did you link to the

Momo,

Did you link to the wrong article? No mention of jets. It actually says that the main opposition group stayed away from these protests.

Damn. Yes, that was the wrong

Damn. Yes, that was the wrong link. Try again:

A pair of fighter jets was flying over Bahrain Friday morning and police and military forces erected additional checkpoints on major highways, searching cars

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/9078408/bahrainis-set-for-day-of-rage-protest-despite-ban/

That's a little vague, Momo.

That's a little vague, Momo. Those jets may well have been on the way to Libya. You wish to compare that to pilots who defected because they refused to bomb civilians? Please.

Bahrain is under pressure as an ally to reform as Eric has pointed out. There is no doubt that the regime has murdered people and lost it's legitimacy, but the situation there can and hopefully will be negotiated peacefully.

If they had been on their way

If they had been on their way to Libya or elsewhere, they wouldn’t have had a reason to fly “over Bahrain”. They would have made their noise over the sea. And I said intimidating, not bombing.

You’ve been telling us for days that Bahrain is under pressure to reform. And here is the success of this pressure not to produce ugly headlines. This could work better. Small wonder that coverage of the events in Bahrain tends to be a bit vague.

See how Nato is supporting

See how Nato is supporting the good guys in Libya. Lovely.

 Momo, Why don't you read

 Momo,

Why don't you read Resolution 1973. (2011) which the Security Council, without a dissenting vote, passed on 17 March 2011 ?

Protection of civilians

  a ban on all flights (except humanitarian) in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians; the important role of the League of Arab States in matters relating to the maintenance of international peace and security in the region, and bearing in mind Chapter VIII of the Charter of the United Nations, requests the Member States of the League of Arab States to cooperate with other Member State that the Libyan authorities comply with their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, human rights and refugee law and take all measures to protect civilians and meet their basic needs, and to ensure the rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian assistance; 

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10200.doc.htm

No-fly zone

Enforcement of the arms embargo

Asset freeze

Two questions, Eric: Do you

Two questions, Eric:

Do you honestly believe that the “coalition” intervening in Libya has the aim to protect civilians according to this resolution, if necessary against both conflict parties?

Is the aim of the intervention support for the opposition or not?

Napoleon Bonsai wants the

Napoleon Bonsai wants the next UN resolution, this time against Ivory Coast:

"France has submitted a draft resolution to the United Nations. It is a scandal that heavy weapons are being fired in Abidjan. At a minimum there should be no heavy weapons in Abidjan," Sarkozy told a news conference after a meeting of European leaders in Brussels.

I wish he had told us too how these weapons got there!

I suppose the UN will find  a resolution against Ivory Coast using heavy weapons okay, but a resolution against countries exporting heavy weapons to dictators would be taking things too far.

a resolution against

a resolution against countries exporting heavy weapons to dictators would be taking things too far. momo

Wrong again.Ivory Coast has been under a UN arms embargo since 2004.

Yes, and not before. What we

Yes, and not before.

What we need is international legislation criminalising the export of weapons to all countries that violate human rights. It would be a far more efficient way to protect civilians than any intervention.

Isn’t it ironic to see how the Libya war is fought against weapons that the same countries delivered to Gaddafi until very recently? Incidentally it is a weapons test for the next round of exports.

Crap.  Been gone for two days

Crap.  Been gone for two days and gotta wade through over 100 posts to catch up.  I'll toss in my two cents before I have to be gone for another two days:

There was a justification to dclare war on Iraq in Gulf I because Saddam had left his own borders and attacked a sovereign country.  There was justification to attack Afghanistan because they gave material support and protection to those who attacked a sovereign foreign country.  And there was (although some may disagree) justification to attack Saddam in Gulf II because he violated the cease fire agreements (any violation, no matter how minor, nullifies a ceasfire, in my opinion).  However, there has been no invasion of any other country, no attack, no violence outside the borders of Lybia.  Malomar Gadfly has not left the boundaries of his own state.  This is an internal matter.  There is no justification for the UN to "take sides" in a civil war.  If "civil rights violations" and "protection of civilians" is sufficient reason to interfere in a civil war, the list or interventions is going to grow very long, very quickly.  I'm not saying that's not a good idea.  It's just a bit hypocritical to pick and choose.

If "civil rights violations"

If "civil rights violations" and "protection of civilians" is sufficient reason to interfere in a civil war, the list or interventions is going to grow very long, very quickly.  I'm not saying that's not a good idea.  It's just a bit hypocritical to pick and choose. alan peterson

There is no question of 'interfering in a civil war'. That's the Gaddafi line. The 'responsibility to protect' has been exercised by UN peacekeepers, member states and regional organizations in regard to many countries.

“There is no question of

“There is no question of 'interfering in a civil war'. That's the Gaddafi line.”

And it’s the Liam Fox line. And the Lieberman and McCain line.

The 'responsibility to

The 'responsibility to protect' has been exercised by UN peacekeepers, member states and regional organizations in regard to many countries. (eric)

Boy, and I thought momo's was a slavish devotion to bureacracy ...

There is no question of

There is no question of 'interfering in a civil war'. That's the Gaddafi line. The 'responsibility to protect' has been exercised by UN peacekeepers, member states and regional organizations in regard to many countries.

Including Iraq.  Saddam killed WAY more of his people including use of chemical weapons to wipe out whole towns, but that wasn't a civil war worth intervening?  Somehow Gadaffi is a dictator worth intervention and Saddam was not?  How come the Arab League has withdrawn their support of UN "responsibility to protect" ?  Hypocritical!  

Mike,You are claiming that

Mike,

You are claiming that Iraq II was justified by the responsibity to protect? Are you forgetting that there was a no fly zone in Iraq before the invasion by the United Sates? It was justified under resolution 688.

The invasion that followed was the illegal part.

I'm claiming one dictator is

I'm claiming one dictator is just as bad if not worse than the other.  You can't justify humanitarian intervention  in Libya without justifying the humanitarian intervention in Iraq.

Are you forgetting that there was a no fly zone in Iraq before the invasion by the United Sates?

What I don't forget was how little the No Fly Zone mattered in effecting regime change. 

I'm claiming one dictator is

I'm claiming one dictator is just as bad if not worse than the other.

Actually, no one is claiming otherwise. I'm saying to you that the same action – exactly – was taken against Saddam. It's the extra step the the US took unilaterally at little George's bidding that caused all the hubub.

Brendan,Also, I think the

Brendan,

Also, I think the growing coalition will make "collateral damage" far less likely. I'd like the American pilots to sit this one out very soon. These Americans are a bit hair triggered if you had not noticed.

Good news.  Recently announced that the NATO mission over Libya is going to be taken over by a Canadian:  Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard.  Here come the cluster pucks.

 

Charlie Bouchard, eh? He's

Charlie Bouchard, eh? He's got a mean slapshot.

That really is good news.  I

That really is good news.  I know Charlie Bouchard from his NORAD days as deputy commander of 1AF.  He's a pragmatist and a damned fine general officer.

Brendan,I hope to hell that

Brendan,

I hope to hell that your optimism is warranted.  Perhaps we are seeing a new mindset emerge in the Arab world, one that refuses to accept the economic and social results of closed dictatorships, and that things really are changing in a liberal democratic direction.

If not, we are watching the world's most sensitive/politically unstable region become even more unstable.  Unless something is fundamentally different about the Middle East that could qualify the statement, "This 'aint ya daddy's Middle East", this will be just another Arab excuse to crush hope.  Our hope, and their own.  That is one area of the world where the "better angels of our nature" rarely prevail.

Time will tell. From my

Time will tell. From my perspective, the Arab street (in all it's permutations) is doing what it can. This article is a decent summary response to skeptics that I hope sways you somewhat on Libya specifically.

Brendan,I just read the

Brendan,

I just read the article that you linked to in The Economist.  I would first like to say that damn near 100% has already been covered on this thread.  I don't remember an occasion where the posters here had been so far out in front of news analysis.  We discuss something, and then a day or two later I hear similiar analysis on the news.  Good job, guys.

The article does do a good job of detailing the arguments of the "skeptics", or, the "realists".  It didn't do much to sway me overall, as my opposition is not coming from my brain (the facts are lined up), or my heart (I would like to see Gadaffi defeated), but from my gut.  I have seen this a dozen times in my lifetime, and it never works out.

Of course the gut is the least reliable portion of the body to make an argument, as mine is currently demanding that I go downstairs and make lunch and is entirely unimpressed by the article that you sourced.  There are a couple of points that the author himself acknowledges but immediately disregards that I consider to be more than sticky:

Neither Bahrain or Yemen is susceptible to an air campaign as Libya is, with its long stretches of desert that expose Colonel Qaddafi’s advancing tanks. You intervene when you can, not to be consistent.

I think a long term, consistent, broad-based strategy to develop liberal democracy in the Middle East should be paramount.  The West should hold summits that focus entirely on this issue.  I am sure that you are aware that Western, and especially American, perceived inconsistencies are tremendously problematic for us when it comes to convincing the Arab street of our (presumedly) benign intentions.

Success in Libya is not guaranteed—how could it be? It is a violent country that may well succumb to more violence, and will not become a democracy any time soon. But its people deserve to be spared the dictator’s gun and be given a chance of a better future.

This is a critical point that I have been making since the first page of this thread.  We keep wanting to label the rebels as "pro-democracy forces", and this is an error.  We don't know who we are helping.  If we are not advancing the political situation, we are accomplishing nothing towards our ends, and are just making a bad situation worse.  Gadaffi is a bastard, but we should take his warnings seriously when he claims that he is the only force preventing outright chaos in Libya.

Giving tacit acknowledgement to Eric's "Mad Max" scenario, many nations in the Middle East are going to need a period of outright chaos before a new order can arise, and I think it is best that we stay out of that.  We have a tendency to take the blame for it.

Your "gut" is just being

Your "gut" is just being difficult. Go fix yourself a bowl full of logicaroney.

Jay,look at the leading

Jay,

look at the leading headline at the Drudge Report, it's hilarious.

Chris,Are you talking about

Chris,

Are you talking about the headline, "Canada Takes Charge On Libya"?  That is a novel headline.

Your southern neighbors have so sufficiently shielded you from the vagaries of international politics that you are tragically unaware of the simple rules of a game of "hot potato".

However, if the world is to have a new policeman, at least he will bear the kind, handsome face and good intentions of a Dudley Do-Right.

Jay,If America was the

Jay,

If America was the international policeman for these so many years, than you were paid well. Retirements a bitch, enjoy your gold coloured watch.

...enjoy your gold coloured

...enjoy your gold coloured watch.

You ungrateful bastards can't even spring for a real gold watch, can you?

That's not even the worst of

That's not even the worst of it, your pension was lost in the 2009 financial crises. Let's hope things don't get as bad as Detroit..

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/03/24/matt-gurney-how-low-can-detroit-go/

Seriously, it's amazing what's happened there. Is it the future of America...dum...dum...dum...

 

lazy afternoon humor.

Chris,I went to your Canadian

Chris,

I went to your Canadian article on the Detroit disaster.  I read the same story in the American news the other day, and was made aware of a problem that is alluded to in the Canadian article:

Detroit has withered away, doomed by its poisonous race relations and the declining power of the American auto industry.

I was reading the comment section on the American story, and was blown away by the viciousness of the racism.  Worse than anything from 1950s Mississippi.  I sure as hell wouldn't want to live there.

Never mind.  This is off topic.

Scooped again, I see...I

Scooped again, I see...I really should invest in reading a little prior to posting.

Chris,...enjoy your gold

Chris,

...enjoy your gold coloured watch.

yet,

...lazy afternoon humor.

Which is it, Dudley?  Do you prefer the Limey rules of spelling or the Yanks'?  Are you inspired by the dynamism of American modernity, or still smitten by the Brits' adherence to the time-hono(u)red traditions of Middle English?

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