We are all watching developments in Libya. Tunisia and Egypt have disappeared from the headlines. It is rather odd to me that of all the movements in the Arab world to remove long-entrenched dictators, the one that has gathered the strongest response from America is that in Libya. America has frozen 30 billion in Libyan assets, and is positioning naval forces in the Meditteranean. We are going to regret this.
America should be concentrating its efforts on aiding Egypt and Tunisia. These are the two countries with perhaps the best odds at achieving democracy, should they survive the revolutionary turmoil that they are currently in. A few days ago demonstaters in Tunisia were fired upon as they were protesting the interim government. There were several deaths. This is not good. There is a fragile transition underway, and it could easily be derailed by such developments.
Libya is in the early stages of civil war. "The Resistance" is gathering strength and has recently begun consolidating control over the oil fields in the east to use against the regime. These are estimated to be 80% of Libyan production. Mark my words: whoever the leaders in this "resistence" are that have taken control of the country's oil will not simply hand that control over to any hypothetical interim government. Get ready for the warlords, people.
Whatever nastiness happens in Libya is now going to be stamped with the ubiquitous damnation, "American-backed". Here is a sample of a future news article that the next generation of Eurotards will never allow us to forget:
"A ferry full of undocumented refugees fleeing the civil strife in Libya was intercepted off the coast of Sardinia this morning. The humanitarian crisis in Libya continues to spiral out of control as the American-backed junta in Libya persists in killing babies with impunity..."
Why do we (Americans) involve ourselves in efforts that have little chance of success, and thus guarantee that we are associated with the inevitable failure? The intelligent strategy would be to pour all available energy and resources into developing democracy in Tunisia and Egypt, and leave Libya to Europe.
































From the opinion pages of the
From the opinion pages of the New York Times, here is a great article detailing why aid to Yemen is critical in its time of transition:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/opinion/25johnsen.html
I believe that the dangers of non-engagement described by the author apply to all of the countries emerging from dictatorship, but with different concerns and requirements.
One of the aspects of the Arab Spring that is dampening my enthusiasm is the fact that there is so much change occurring at once. One of the examples of the Iraq war that the world should be paying attention to, is the commitment required to escort a country towards post-dictatorial democratic development.
If the leaders fall, but the regimes remains in place, this is only symbolic improvement. The real revolution occurs in convincing people to do business differently. For example, if the Theocracy were toppled in Iran, we would still have the Iranian Revolutionary Guard controlling most of the business interests in the country. This organization would thus maintain most of the control in the country, and would continue to thrive no matter what political entity claimed to be in control in Tehran. Wresting control away from people with a vested economic interest in the status quo is far more difficult than demonstrating on the street against a figurehead.
There is so much work ahead of us in any one particular country, but to have half a dozen countries on the verge of anarchy in the space of 3 months forebodes an extremely anxious time in human history, especially when ongoing commitments, domestic politics, and economic constraints will reduce the potential for global leadership focused by America.
There is so much work ahead
Relax. Let go of the megalomania. The Arabs will be doing some of the work for themselves. It's called democracy.
Thank you, Eric. After
Thank you, Eric. After re-reading my post, I can understand how certain personality types would regard it to be championing America somehow. I should correct that before Momo, and perhaps Chris, chime in.
The "us" was intended to refer to "The West", or more precisely, the institutions in our respective countries that correspond to the American State Department. Or even any allignment of nations interested in the propagation of global democracy.
I would like to press you on what "work" you think the Arabs will be doing for themselves, and why you seem to assume that the Arabs already have democracy, but I have a message to relay instead. Your mom just called me. She says the music down in the basement is too loud, and that she wants you to stop leaving your underwear on the floor after you shower.
This is interesting:
This is interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12864460. He's reduced to doling out guns to "volunteers" with all the obvious risks entailed in that.
Read towards the bottom about the siege of Adjabiya:
"Fleeing residents said the streets were deserted, and that government troops were opening fire at random."
And that's the thing. The only way he can keep control is by killing everyone so that only his goons are left standing. As I said earlier, a rational dictator (Mubarak, Ben Ali etc) would have seen the contradictions involved in committing suicide in order to survive. Gaddafi doesn't. Whatever the motives for the intervention (and I wholly mistrust them) , it is necessary.
No, Gaddafi can behave very
No, Gaddafi can behave very rationally under stress. Random shootings instal fear, and that’s what he wants. Ruthless, but not mad, at least not at all times.
The motives of the intervention worry me less than the consequences.
Twitter rumour about that
Twitter rumour about that says one son is dead, and that he may have killed another son for refusing orders. [unverifiable]
I'm beginning work on the movie script tonight. Looking for titles: "Mad Dog's Dawn"?
The rumour isn’t new, but
The rumour isn’t new, but there are too many ways how Khamis Gaddafi was killed. One is getting the impression that he was killed several times.
The rumour about Khamis was
The rumour about Khamis was from the 20th I believe, but has been re-iterated today by other sources. Muattasim being killed by his father is new, and incrediby tragic. Who could be cast as Gaddafi in the movie? Benicio Del Toro?
{edit} I just saw a picture of Muattasim. No question he will be played by Kianu Reeves.
Wow. That is one
Wow. That is one creepy-lookin' dude. He looks like a guy that would have his 1982 van parked outside a kindergarten, with a sign reading "free candy".
He has better moments. In the
He has better moments. In the movie, he'll be having a trist with Secretary Clinton that ultimately gets him killed. I can't give away any more, script is half done already.
Brendan,Stop for the love of
Brendan,
Stop for the love of Christ!!! That might be the same photograph, but anyone that makes Hillary Clinton look positively radiant is a one man creep show!!
I don’t think a contemporary
I don’t think a contemporary actor is up to this amount of demonisation. You must go back very far in time and find a real Peter Lorre type of actor. You want real evilness, don't you?
Good idea. Can you act? You
Good idea. Can you act? You do have a penchant for long, paranoid, rambling speeches. You are a natural for the part.
With your state of mind I
With your state of mind I don’t believe that you are able to grasp what “paranoid” means. And now you have proven again that my suspicion is right.
Momo,You barely understand
Momo,
You barely understand English. It is more obvious than you think. Here is the definition of paranoid:
2. Exhibiting or characterized by extreme and irrational fear or distrust of others
Here is the definition of ironic, which you also don't understand.
The definition of irony that
The definition of irony that BigC used the other day has a great advantage: it used the word “wit”, which I recommend you look up.
As to paranoia, did you even notice how well the definition fits you?
How about
How about "delusional"?
Delusional disorder, previously called paranoid disorder, is a type of serious mental illness called a "psychosis" in which a person cannot tell what is real from what is imagined. The main feature of this disorder is the presence of delusions, which are unshakable beliefs in something untrue. People with delusional disorder experience non-bizarre delusions, which involve situations that could occur in real life, such as being followed, poisoned, deceived, conspired against, or loved from a distance. These delusions usually involve the misinterpretation of perceptions or experiences. In reality, however, the situations are either not true at all or highly exaggerated, as can be seen in the writings of "Momo" on the discussion forum openDemocracy.
People with delusional disorder often can continue to socialize and function normally, apart from the subject of their delusion, and generally do not behave in an obviously odd or bizarre manner. This is unlike people with other psychotic disorders, who also might have delusions as a symptom of their disorder. In some cases, however, people with delusional disorder might become so preoccupied with their delusions that their lives are disrupted.
Although delusions might be a symptom of more common disorders, such as schizophrenia, delusional disorder itself is rather rare. Delusional disorder most often occurs in middle to late life and is slightly more common in women than in men.
http://www.webmd.com/schizophrenia/delusional-disorder
Yes, “delusion” is an
Yes, “delusion” is an appropriate description for you.
The conversation with you has made me sleepy, you won’t hear more from me this night.
Sweet dreams, Mo. Don't let
Sweet dreams, Mo. Don't let the Americans get you.
Momo,Côte d'Ivoire is melting
Momo,
Côte d'Ivoire is melting down. By your definition of IL, should the UN leave now or bolster it's troops and try to stop it, or maybe even try and remove Gbagbo?
In Ivory Coast the UN, that
In Ivory Coast the UN, that is already there, has a chance to prevent more massacres, and for this aim they must stay. They mustn’t side with one of the two bad guys though. It is fairly obvious that Ouattara hasn’t got legitimacy with wide parts of the populations either.
Any attempt to install a government in a foreign country is illegitimate and will lead to more conflict(and will backfire): A government must be seen as legitimate in the eyes of the population, otherwise you need a fairly strong occupation force.
Ouattara has won an election
Ouattara has won an election and so he must be considered ligitimate. Broad international support also makes him legitimate.
On formal grounds he has that
On formal grounds he has that legitimacy, but in reality his support is too low to enforce the result of the election. And it is tied to ethnicity: this is divisive. The broad international support has a two-edged effect: is he a puppet of foreign powers? If you want the citizens to answer that question with yes, you only need to intervene.
A solution of this conflict will come neither from abroad nor from one of the two conflict parties. Ivory Coast needs a people’s movement. Walk like an Egyptian. Unfortunately this is not in sight.
Yes, he does have the
Yes, he does have the legitimacy of having won the vote in a country that claims to have democratic institutions. Your opinion seems to be that might is the only factor we need be concerned with. Bollocks. A corrupt leader cannot hang on to power by force of his atrocities. I'm afraid I cannot agree with you yet again.
A corrupt leader cannot hang
A corrupt leader cannot hang on to power by force of his atrocities
Never said he should be allowed to do that. Apparently you haven’t got that I hope that both bad guys are replaced by a government that doesn’t split the country along the ethnic lines. If one of them wins, no matter which one, there will be very bloody massacres. Weren’t you one of the guys claiming you supported humanitarian intervention, not taking side in an internal conflict? It would matters even worse, although in Ivory Coast that seems to be impossible.
BigC,He's reduced to doling
BigC,
That is going on everywhere. Here is one of the earliest news reports that I found on the rebel organizational development, with similiarly chilling prospects for the future:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41831732/ns/world_news-africa/
Yes I'm aware the rebels have
Yes I'm aware the rebels have done it. It would be surprising if they didn't!
But Daffy has an army. My point is that it indicates the level of desperation he has reached. Handing out weapons to civilians is extremely risky as there is a good chance they will reach the wrong civilians.
Very hilarious article Robert
Very hilarious article
Robert Gates has found out there are authoritarian regimes in the Middle East. Three. Can you guess which? Er, Saudi Arabia, perhaps? Nope. Bahrain? Hell, no. Israel? Stupid question. Jordan, where at least one demonstrator was killed today and about 200 injured? Oh no.
Syria, Iran, and Libya. And that's it. (Question to the Americans here: do you really count Libya to the Middle East or has Gates no idea of geography?)
And then he even lauds Egypt’s army, which is still fighting the opposition as “empowering revolution”!
I'm happily surprised by
I'm happily surprised by Robert Gates' honesty.
I'd call that uncommon candour.
Momo,You have such aggressive
Momo,
You have such aggressive ignorance. Here is the excerpt that you are referring to:
At no point is it ever implied that these are the only repressive regimes in the region. And, as far as the region goes, yes, I would consider Libya to be a part of the Middle East as it is being used in this context.
http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/me.htm
“You have such aggressive
“You have such aggressive ignorance.”
From your position in the glasshause this is the most stupid thing you could say. Epic Fail.
“Here is the excerpt that you are referring to”
A very short excerpt. The article I cited quotes Gates more thoroughly. And there you see that he really made it sound as if these three countries were the only repressive ones in the region, for obvious reasons. The only countries where he welcomes an opposition movement. It implies that all other Middle Eastern countries should be “stable”, no matter how repressive.
The question about the use of “Middle East” was a genuine question, by the way, because the German equivalent (or not equivalent) connotes “Asia” among other things. That means Egypt being partly Asian would be included, but Libya belongs to Maghreb.
The article I cited quotes
No, it does not.
Well are all very aquainted with your paranoid delusions about America, so there is no need to embellish your redundant point with the consequences of your reading incomprehesion.
Criticism of an American
Criticism of an American politican’s words, and immediately you call it anti-Americanism again!
That makes clear that what you want is that everyone treats every US American as infallible. You are the best example to prove that idiotic theory of yours wrong.
More info on how the
More info on how the protection of civilians fails, because the intervention is in reality support for one side in an internal conflict:
Momo, Since you can't
Momo,
Since you can't remember as far back as last month, here's some help with the chronology of the Libya situation.
The International Criminal Court prosecutor said on Thursday he would present a case for possible war crimes by Libya's Muammar Gaddafi in May and that he could open a second case to include more recent attacks on civilians. ...
Moreno-Ocampo said that although his initial investigation centred around killings of civilians by security forces between February 15-26, he could open a second case to include more recent violence as fighting between rebels and troops loyal to Gaddafi broke out. ...
"Then I will focus on what happened during the armed conflict. At the beginning of March, the Red Cross said the armed conflict started and we agreed with that, so we have to see if there were war crimes committed in those days."
http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE72O04020110325But you don't feel the need
But you don't feel the need to protect civilians against this sort of crimes, do you? Or haven't you seen that the situation of the workers became worse after the intervention started?
The question about the use of
No, it wasn't. Directed as it was to Americans with the assumption of geographical ignorance is yet another installment of your propagation of the American stereotype. Be honest.
But, I won't respond to you at this point. We have made it this far without allowing you to crash yet another thread with your maniacal idiocy, and I will not be the one to allow that to happen. Later, miststuck.
No, it wasn't. I really know
No, it wasn't.
I really know better than you why I ask questions. It was a genuine question about the use of your language.
Geograhical ignorance doesn’t play a role here, because Gates may be a geographical idiot or not, but he surely has some staff to edit out an excess of idiocy, if necessary. It’s something you need too. Unfortunately your statements come along without that.
I have BBQ sauce on my
I have BBQ sauce on my fingers. That last line was supposed to read, "later, miss stuck up".
Unused to the use of a fork,
Unused to the use of a fork, I assume.
Reminds me of a story. I
Reminds me of a story. I worked my way through university as a bartender. I had some German customers that ordered fajitas (basically soft tacos), and then asked me what to do with the sizzling platter of meat, the tortillas, and the plate of cheese, guacamole, sour cream, pico de gallo, etc.
They were still confused, though, "You eat with the hand?!?!"
The next time I turned around they were eating fajitas with a knife and fork. I had to confiscate their silverware to keep them from making further fools of themselves in a crowded bar. Dumb Germans.
Was that the first time you
Was that the first time you sighted knife and fork?
The knife and fork have been
The knife and fork have been common fightin' tools in Texas since the early 1800s.
The Alamo's last defender was
The Alamo's last defender was the cook, who used a Texas knife and fork to skewer three of Santa Ana's soldiers before being 'bayonetted', which was a french invention by the way. No wonder momo dislikes Sarkozy.
I hadn't even heard that
I hadn't even heard that rumor about Gadaffi's son Khamis being killed. Sounds like rebel propaganda, but who knows:
Khamis Gadhafi was killed earlier this week after a disaffected Libyan air force pilot who crash-landed his jet in the ruling family's headquarters, according to unconfirmed reports cited by ABC News and Al-Arabiya television. He died from burn injuries after the crash, the reports said.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/03/25/ap/business/main20047350.shtml
Why not just unload your missiles into the compound and then fly to Malta, write a book, and retire in Florida?
Al Jazeera is reporting that
Al Jazeera is reporting that rebel fighters have entered the town of Ajdabiya from the east, with loyalists holding the western portion. I believe that Ajdabiya was as far as the loyalists advanced before the offensive stalled, and began to be pummelled by airstrikes.
The rebels have been making their way steadily down the highway over the past few days, and the ability to fight their way back into Ajdabiya is significant. This should mean that the loyalists are cut off, as the coalition is not allowing any movement by Gadaffi's forces, so apparently reinforcements or evacuation may be an impossibility. We might see a surrender in the coming days.
I believe that Ajdabiya was the concentration of the eastward thrust, and if those loyalist forces fall there, we should see Brega and, hopefully, Ras Lanuf return to the rebels in the near future.
Controlling Brega and Ras Lanuf gives the rebels control of the vast majority of Libyan raw material exports. What they do with them will define who they actually are: Build a society, or fight for ultimate control over more wealth than anyone would ever plausibly need.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/03/201132521323292102.html
Looks like the necessary due
Looks like the necessary due diligence is being done. Sounds promising.
Thank you for the link
Thank you for the link Brendan. It was a good article, and did indeed make the nebulous LNPTC sound promising. Apparently, the group has been saavy enough to even set up their own wikipedia pages. I got this when I googled their prime minister, Mahmoud Jibril:
My question is, and always has been: Does a group of Benghazi intellectuals have balls big enough to take control of Libya?
Writing a social contract heavy on egalitarianism is one thing, but in order to get it to be the law of the land they are going to have to prove themselves to be some ferocious street fighters. Do you have a paypal account? I will be you $20US that they are all dead within three months.
Betting on the life or death
Betting on the life or death of 31 individuals is a little morbid for me, especially due to the fact that some or many of them are likely to be assassinated.
"Libyan opposition rebels take the key eastern city of Ajdabiya from government control"
Momentum might just collapse the Loyalists back to Tripoli now. If so, this is over in a few weeks or less. Once you take their heavy weapons out, they don't look like they can make any advances. The question NOW is, can US/UN diplomats prevent retribution and ultraviolence by the rebel side.
Brendan, I don't know why you
Brendan,
I don't know why you favour such bloodthirsty speculation. In any case, the political phase is likely to be in the hands of Libyans rather than US diplomats (why you couple them with the UN is unclear), with France being influential.
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