We are all watching developments in Libya. Tunisia and Egypt have disappeared from the headlines. It is rather odd to me that of all the movements in the Arab world to remove long-entrenched dictators, the one that has gathered the strongest response from America is that in Libya. America has frozen 30 billion in Libyan assets, and is positioning naval forces in the Meditteranean. We are going to regret this.
America should be concentrating its efforts on aiding Egypt and Tunisia. These are the two countries with perhaps the best odds at achieving democracy, should they survive the revolutionary turmoil that they are currently in. A few days ago demonstaters in Tunisia were fired upon as they were protesting the interim government. There were several deaths. This is not good. There is a fragile transition underway, and it could easily be derailed by such developments.
Libya is in the early stages of civil war. "The Resistance" is gathering strength and has recently begun consolidating control over the oil fields in the east to use against the regime. These are estimated to be 80% of Libyan production. Mark my words: whoever the leaders in this "resistence" are that have taken control of the country's oil will not simply hand that control over to any hypothetical interim government. Get ready for the warlords, people.
Whatever nastiness happens in Libya is now going to be stamped with the ubiquitous damnation, "American-backed". Here is a sample of a future news article that the next generation of Eurotards will never allow us to forget:
"A ferry full of undocumented refugees fleeing the civil strife in Libya was intercepted off the coast of Sardinia this morning. The humanitarian crisis in Libya continues to spiral out of control as the American-backed junta in Libya persists in killing babies with impunity..."
Why do we (Americans) involve ourselves in efforts that have little chance of success, and thus guarantee that we are associated with the inevitable failure? The intelligent strategy would be to pour all available energy and resources into developing democracy in Tunisia and Egypt, and leave Libya to Europe.