We are all watching developments in Libya. Tunisia and Egypt have disappeared from the headlines. It is rather odd to me that of all the movements in the Arab world to remove long-entrenched dictators, the one that has gathered the strongest response from America is that in Libya. America has frozen 30 billion in Libyan assets, and is positioning naval forces in the Meditteranean. We are going to regret this.
America should be concentrating its efforts on aiding Egypt and Tunisia. These are the two countries with perhaps the best odds at achieving democracy, should they survive the revolutionary turmoil that they are currently in. A few days ago demonstaters in Tunisia were fired upon as they were protesting the interim government. There were several deaths. This is not good. There is a fragile transition underway, and it could easily be derailed by such developments.
Libya is in the early stages of civil war. "The Resistance" is gathering strength and has recently begun consolidating control over the oil fields in the east to use against the regime. These are estimated to be 80% of Libyan production. Mark my words: whoever the leaders in this "resistence" are that have taken control of the country's oil will not simply hand that control over to any hypothetical interim government. Get ready for the warlords, people.
Whatever nastiness happens in Libya is now going to be stamped with the ubiquitous damnation, "American-backed". Here is a sample of a future news article that the next generation of Eurotards will never allow us to forget:
"A ferry full of undocumented refugees fleeing the civil strife in Libya was intercepted off the coast of Sardinia this morning. The humanitarian crisis in Libya continues to spiral out of control as the American-backed junta in Libya persists in killing babies with impunity..."
Why do we (Americans) involve ourselves in efforts that have little chance of success, and thus guarantee that we are associated with the inevitable failure? The intelligent strategy would be to pour all available energy and resources into developing democracy in Tunisia and Egypt, and leave Libya to Europe.
































Of course you are, and I’m
Of course you are, and I’m appreciative that you’re aware of that, It’s just a pity that you’re not capable of understanding that being dogmatic, on any issue, isn’t something to be proud of. It’s why your voice carries little or no value with most people here.
Momo,'It’s why your voice
Momo,
'It’s why your voice carries little or no value with most people here.'
I should apoligise for saying that, went a little too far.
Okay, accepted.
Okay, accepted.
Would someone please shoot me
Would someone please shoot me now? I have suffered long enough on this thread, but at this exact moment I believe that I have sunk to the lowest level of my entire life. I am a drunken vagrant passed out in the gutter, and a passing dog just lifted its leg and pissed on my head.
Momo, I agree with most of what you just said. Someone shoot me.
You made a point about Bahrain the other day, and I somewhat agree, but with a different logic. What about Bahrain? If the West is going to take such a forceful stance on Libya, will we not be seen as hypocritical for being silent on Bahrain? I don't want to get involved in Bahrain, Syria, or Yemen, because these are all sectarian societies possibly emerging from an extended period of dictatorship, and things are going to get ugly. But then again, so is Libya.
Like Momo, I really don't understand the sense of urgency on Libya. I don't understand why America knew to stay on the sidelines for the Arab Spring, but then so suddenly intervened. Like Momo, I don't really see any genocide or massive human rights abuses. Sure, they existed, but not a the scale that has historically provoked an international response.
You know what certain Arabs are going to allege, right?: We are in Libya because of the oil. I hate that allegation, but, something is gnawing at my gut right now. This just doesn't make sense.
We took sides in a civil war, and there is no one to hand power to.
One of the things that I disagree with Momo on in the above post is this:
That is some vintage Momo stupidity and anti-US paranoia, but my point about it is that the mission definitely has not turned to "nation-building". I believe that that will eventually be necessary now. You can't knock out Gadaffi and then walk away.
Another thing:
As far as I know, bigC has rather wisely positioned himself against intervention from the start of this thread. That will probably be the last time I am ever in need of defending him.
The Libyan National
The Libyan National Transition Council has already been recognized by France as the body acting on behalf of the Libyan people. The UN mandate does not authorize military support for hostilities by anti-Gaddafi militias. Its aims are to establish a free-fly zone, to interdict military activity on the ground, establish a ceasefire, open the borders of Libya to humantarian aid, maintain an arms embargo, prohibit travel and freeze the assets of designated persons and bring about conditions for a political settlement by the Libyans themselves.
Eric,The Libyan National
Eric,
That is a fatal error. The French have thrown their lot in with a group it knew little about. I don't believe that any group that arises in Libya in the next 6 months will be able to take eventual control of the nation. Here is my opinion from my first post on this thread:
The French have royally screwed themselves. What are they going to do when no one outside of Benghazi acknowledges their authority? I keep saying that this is complete sloppiness. The French acted aggressively simply to get out in front of the Americans diplomatically and curry some international presitige. The Libyans are going to suffer for this bullshit power posturing, and so are the French.
Eric, that is in effect what is happening. We took sides. We screwed up. Normally the UN screws up by attempting to be seen as not taking sides, and I can't figure out the departure from protocol here.
How the hell do you do that from the air? The UNSC has ultimately paved the way for regime change, or, to be more precise, it is merely allowing for regime destruction. You guys are not hearing me here: THERE IS NO ONE THAT CAN TAKE CONTROL IN LIBYA AFTER GADAFFI IS GONE. IF YOU ABANDON LIBYA WHEN THE CIVIL WAR REALLY STARTS, YOU WILL NOT HAVE HELPED THE LIBYANS. THERE WILL BE FAR MORE DEATHS THAN IF GADAFFI HAD MERELY CRUSHED THE REBELLION.
THERE WILL BE FAR MORE DEATHS
You're not really getting into the spirit of the "Arab Spring" are you?
Brendan,You're not really
Brendan,
I am not really getting into us getting involved. A month ago, we knew better.
Momo, I agree with most of
Momo, I agree with most of what you just said. Someone shoot me
I won’t send flowers for your grave.
I have some comfort for you: we agree less than you say.
Like Momo, I really don't understand the sense of urgency on Libya.
I understand the urgency very well. Gaddafi is a tyrant who isn’t predictable and has often taken a position against the west. Mubarak, Hamad, and more are tyrants who are predictably on the west’s side. That is the reason why the latter can kill as many civilians as they like, and our governments won’t mind. Look. Or remember Clinton, the enemy of humanity, admonishing Iran the other day for killing peaceful protesters. She did not mention that another tyranny, Iraq, had killed more peaceful protesters on the same day.
It is power-politics, pure and simple. And transparently so.
“You know what certain Arabs are going to allege, right?: We are in Libya because of the oil. I hate that allegation, but, something is gnawing at my gut right now. This just doesn't make sense”
Not only Arabs will allege that. And it is more than the oil, of course.
As Napoleon (Bonaparte, not Napoleon Bonsai) used to say: most stupid questions are asked because people did not consult a map beforehand. You forget Libya’s strategic position. The government of independent Cyrene will allow the US to build a gigantic airbase, I imagine.
We took sides in a civil war, and there is no one to hand power to
No matter. The power won’t be given away. The president’s portrait will be printed on stamps, but that is all he is needed for.
As far as I know, bigC has
As far as I know, bigC has rather wisely positioned himself against intervention from the start of this thread.
Not quite so. BigC, who can answer for himself, has basically sat on the fence. He was more inclined towards intervention but felt the rebels would win regardless. I disagreed and I advocated air strikes 2+ weeks ago. Maybe then the rebels would have won by now.
The Security Council Has At
Eric,You and I were in
Eric,
You and I were in agreement when you held this position:
I consider the UN resolution 1973 to be unwise. I think it is unwise of you to so blindly follow the decisions of the UN, even when they are in contradiction of your original position.
I understand that you put a lot of your future hopes for humanity in the arms of the UN, but the institution is highly fallible, and you can't see the forest for the trees. UN endorsement does not, automatically, makes things wonderful. It often makes things worse.
Brendan,The difference being
Brendan,
As citizens of democracies who have a tendency to submit to domestic pressure for foreign interventions on humanitarian grounds, it is important that we understand the nature of civil wars.
I would bet that 85% of the all deaths resulting from political violence over the last 40 years occured at the hands of 22 year-old males who recently came into possession of an AK-47.
What do you want to see? An end to Gadaffi, or an end to the violence? They are not one and the same. You must choose. Tanks and artillery are the best way to end the violence quickly. An armed population in a sectarian society during a state of anarchy is going to kill more people and endure for years longer. You keep saying there is no comparison to Iraq. You are wrong.
You keep saying there is no
There is no comparison to Iraq. No one from Texas is making decisions in this conflict.
To be fully accurate, no one
To be fully accurate, no one anywhere--including D.C is making decisions in this conflict.
As with most complex events,
As with most complex events, there are no easy answers here. Is Gaddafi an unhinged tyrant who has been killing unarmed protesters and armed rebels (all of them civilians, by the way, momo)? Yes. Would Libya and the rest of us be better off if were he toppled? Common sense would seem to suggest that is so.
But ... and I might as well line up alongside Jay for the firing squad ... I tend to agree with momo that this should have been left to the Libyans to sort out.
Unlike momo, however, who hates the US and tends to see base ulterior motives in any action it undertakes, my reasons have more to do with logic and practicality.
(By the way, momo, the U.S. appears to be backing out of the action already. I guess that will leave Britain, France, Canada, Italy, Denmark, Spain, Qatar and Norway to squabble over who steals the oil and builds the airbases – not to mention the new puppet government. We have enough bases around there, but nice of you to be thinking of our needs.)
The revolt in Libya was at the beginning and should have remained part of the Arab Spring, a natural development with citizens of each country protesting authoritarian regimes which they are no longer willing to put up with. That some of these protests have turned violent is regrettable but also not unexpected. In Gaddafi’s case, it should be surprising to no one that, rather than take the more logical approach of stuffing his suitcases with loot and fleeing to Gstad (or wherever would have him), he chose to stay and fight it out.
But what, exactly, is the difference between Libya and Bahrain? Protestors against a tyrannical government are being brutally crushed there, too. The difference, of course, is that Bahrain is an ally, and not run by a raving nutter who lives in a tent but by a royal family we’re on good terms with.
Obama has chosen to get the U.S. involved in what is an internal conflict. Whatever good might come from it – a few Libyan lives saved, Gaddafi toppled – are outweighed by the dangerous precedent that’s been set. Even if we were to pull out of the coalition tomorrow, the damage has been done.
Like Jay, I’m content to let the EU and whatever other nations are involved handle this from here. Of course, whether they can handle it is an open question. And what exactly is the end game? If, as it seems, Gaddafi is capable of killing his people even without aircraft and armored artillery, what comes next? I think Mike would agree that, if the intent is really protect Libyans on the ground, then foreign boots on the ground will sooner or later be needed. I foresee special forces teams inserted (if they haven’t been already) to lase smaller, better hidden targets for aircraft, liaise with rebel leaders, arrange arms and supply drops and, eventually, train cadres of fighters who can take leadership roles.
What I don’t want is for those special forces troops to have an American patch on their O.D.s.
Is Gaddafi an unhinged tyrant
Is Gaddafi an unhinged tyrant who has been killing unarmed protesters and armed rebels (all of them civilians, by the way, momo)?
G. has inhinged moments and rational ones, interestingly.
How come that armed rebels are civilians in your view? And what is, according to HH’s special definitions, a combatant in an internal conflict?
Unlike momo, however, who hates the US and tends to see base ulterior motives in any action it undertakes, my reasons have more to do with logic and practicality
You mean you are fending off logic and practicality by raising the strawman of anti-Americanism.
By the way, momo, the U.S. appears to be backing out of the action already. I guess that will leave Britain, France, Canada, Italy, Denmark, Spain, Qatar and Norway to squabble over who steals the oil and builds the airbases – not to mention the new puppet government. We have enough bases around there, but nice of you to be thinking of our needs.)
I wouldn’t be too sure of the bases in Turkey, if I were you.
You forget the squabble over the reconstruction. Jokes say that French companies give lists of targets to their defence ministry, expecting that they will get the reconstruction contracts later on.
In Gaddafi’s case, it should be surprising to no one that, rather than take the more logical approach of stuffing his suitcases with loot and fleeing to Gstad (or wherever would have him), he chose to stay and fight it out
The ICC was mentioned fairly early. I imagine this prospect didn’t encourage G. to give up. By the way, his tribe ought to get a fair offer, otherwise they won’t see a reason to give up either. And that’s where G recruited his senior officers, so it would make a lot of a difference.
then foreign boots on the ground will sooner or later be needed.
I know, only Brendan is having some illusions about the “restricted” intervention.
Like Jay, I’m content to let the EU and whatever other nations are involved handle this from here.
It wasn’t the EU that attacked Libya, it was France, Britain, and the US. “Obama has chosen” as you say, and suddenly we are responsible? And you don’t want to hear protests, they are always anti-Americanism, I assume. How very convenient. I don’t hate the US, by the way, I only hate their policies of domination which you apparently take for granted.
I think Mike would agree
Regretfully, I have to agree. This is not something airpower can fully accomplish. That is why I am so bothered by the lack of a mission statement, defined end state, or exit strategy.
I also agree. The Europeans
I also agree. The Europeans have cast the die. Now, they will have to do what America did in Iraq. They will need to establish security, separate the fighters, call for elections, oversee the writing of a new social contract for the nation, and then stick around for a decade until the Libyans get used to the new system.
However, I don't know if the Europeans have the resolve to handle this. It helps that Libya is only 20% the size of Iraq (population), but I am not sure if the Europeans can work together as equal partners. They will wind up throwing rocks at one another as they fight over the dinner menu in the barracks.
To be fair, Jay, the U.S. was
To be fair, Jay, the U.S. was at the craps table when the die were thrown. It might have been the French fighters (heh, heh) that dropped the first bombs (anyone know where they landed, by the way?) but it was us firing Tomahawks and sending F-16, F-15 and F-18 sorties up.
I'm all for us pulling out sooner rather than later. But this is a pie we'll have to accept a piece of, if for no other reason than we helped bake it.
Now, they will have to do
God forbid.
And what happens when the
And what happens when the fragile Euro-coalition starts to fall apart as it is destined to do based on the flaws already outlined?
Don't worry, Mike, Hilary and
Don't worry, Mike, Hilary and Obama are keeping an eye on this. NATO will provide the military framework and a collection of European, Arab and other countries will form a council to give as acceptable as possible a political face to the thing.
Some Historical perspective
Some Historical perspective on the two Libya's.
Brendan, What's the point of
Brendan,
What's the point of quoting a retired (or rejected) Australian politician of no known expertise on the subject?
I'm not quoting him, it's
I'm not quoting him, it's simply a good essay for background on the conflict. It's better than wikipedia for example. Stalemate is a possible outcome in this, as I have said previously, I don't have a problem with that. It's not the outcome I am hoping for, but...
Brendan, The call of the
Brendan,
The call of the internet to bring in unqualified commentators should be resisted. Let's stick to the facts and those in a position to provide them.
Brendan,It was a good
Brendan,
It was a good article. Thanks for posting it. Eric can be a real snark before he has his coffee. It is too bad that he doesn't drink coffee.
"The president does not have
The United States should
The United States should totally impeach him.
Start an American spring.
Start an American spring. China, Russia, and perhaps Iran will help you with a no fly zone.
Momo,I expect that this
Momo,
What did you mean by the sentence in bold type? It is on page 9, 23 March 2011 - 9:01pm.
Where have the protesters been replaced by "tribal leaders and former ministers"?
Where have the protesters
Where have the protesters been replaced by "tribal leaders and former ministers"?
The opposition movement is no longer carried by the same persons/groups that started it.
Originally the protests started after an arrest, which had to do with conflicts between two tribes. There was an element of top – down politics of tribal leaders from the beginning, but there was also a strong participation of young people opposed to the whole system, with an attitude of down – top politics. It’s the latter group I have sympathies for.
The tribal leaders (which includes Gaddafi, by the way) managed to militarise the conflict. This implies top – down politics, automatically. The people who want real change are marginalised by that. They have no military means, and military is the opposite of plurality anyway.
Compare that to Egypt: the strength of the real opposition is that they don’t have leaders (that can be arrested, murdered, or bribed). This guarantees a fair amount of plurality in the movement and it difficult to impossible to suppress. The military government is trying that brutally just now, but with little success.
The Libyan counter-government consists of tribal leaders (of tribes that have always had an issue with G) and former (defected) ministers of the regime. That guarantees stability. This is the opposition supported by the intervention.
I remember how during the
I remember how during the rise of the insurgency in the Iraq war, most of the American media ended every single story about bloodshed in Iraq with the words "It has been _____ days since president Bush declared an end to major military operations in Iraq".
I am going to start the new trend:
It has been 5 days since President Obama declared that American participation in Libya will be over in "days, not weeks".
I wonder if the white house
I wonder if the white house has that "Mission Accomplished" banner they can unfurl this Friday?
This looks as if the banner
This looks as if the banner will have to stay in the cellar for a while.
http://www.dvidshub.net/news/67620/bataan-amphibious-ready-group-deploys
It has been 5 days since
Looks like "days, not weeks" is possible. Welcome aboard Turkey! Jay, see if you can find that banner, I'm guessing it's over at George's house. You're the closest.
Excerpts from a French writer
Excerpts from a French writer in an opinion page in Al Jazeera:
"...Why does France seem to crave such prominence? In the eyes of the French, France’s international status remains a key ingredient in forming their own national identity. The way we French are perceived by others affects how we perceive ourselves, and nothing is more troubling for us than to be perceived with indifference or, worse, not to be noticed at all.
Suddenly, with the Libya issue, we can tell ourselves that we are catching up with Germany, whose pusillanimity is striking; we are showing the way to the United States; and the French (and British) flags are deployed in the streets of “liberated” Libya, together with that country's own new flag. And, just as suddenly, the French, according to early polls, are proud again to be French....
...Of course, domestic considerations are not absent from Sarkozy's thinking. In 2007, when he played a key role in the liberation of Bulgarian nurses imprisoned by Gaddafi, Libya's leader was rewarded with what looked like a legitimacy prize: an official visit to Paris. He was no longer a pariah, but an eccentric partner.
Today, by contrast, it all looks as if intervention may re-legitimate Sarkozy in the eyes of French citizens, whose votes he will need in next year's presidential election. An energetic and daring gambler, Sarkozy is taking a high but legitimate risk that he can retake the moral (and political) high ground...
...And today, with France taking the lead in an international effort to protect the Libyan people from their leader, they can feel simultaneously proud of being French and of their Arab roots. These positive identities constitute the best protection against the sirens of fundamentalist Islam.
Of course, an ideal scenario implies that the intervention "goes well", and that it does not incite confusion or chaos in Libya or the wider region.
France, together with Great Britain, and with the more distant support of the US, is undeniably risking much, for it is easier to start a war than it is to end one..."
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/03/2011322145133190578.html
Debate is raging in America
Debate is raging in America over our participation in Libya. The following is a letter sent from the US Speaker of the House (of Representatives) to President Obama:
President Barack Obama
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500
Dear Mr. President:
Thank you for your letter dated March 21, 2011, outlining your Administration’s actions regarding Libya and Operation Odyssey Dawn. The United States has long stood with those who seek freedom from oppression through self-government and an underlying structure of basic human rights. The news yesterday that a U.S. fighter jet involved in this operation crashed is a reminder of the high stakes of any military action abroad and the high price our Nation has paid in blood and treasure to advance the cause of freedom through our history.
I respect your authority as Commander-in-Chief and support our troops as they carry out their mission. But I and many other members of the House of Representatives are troubled that U.S. military resources were committed to war without clearly defining for the American people, the Congress, and our troops what the mission in Libya is and what America’s role is in achieving that mission. In fact, the limited, sometimes contradictory, case made to the American people by members of your Administration has left some fundamental questions about our engagement unanswered. At the same time, by contrast, it appears your Administration has consulted extensively on these same matters with foreign entities such as the United Nations and the Arab League.
It is my hope that you will provide the American people and Congress a clear and robust assessment of the scope, objective, and purpose of our mission in Libya and how it will be achieved. Here are some of the questions I believe must be answered:
The American people take the use of military action seriously, as does the House of Representatives. It is regrettable that no opportunity was afforded to consult with Congressional leaders, as was the custom of your predecessors, before your decision as Commander-in-Chief to deploy into combat the men and women of our Armed Forces. Understanding some information required to respond may be classified, I look forward to a complete response.
Sincerely,
John A. Boehner
Sixty per cent of Americans
Sixty per cent of Americans support the coalition military effort against Gaddafi, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released today. Around two-thirds of those surveyed had a positive reaction to president Barack Obama's decision-making, calling it either "cautious and consultative" or "strong and decisive". Thirty-six percent described it was "indecisive and dithering".
Brendan,Rule #7:#7 People
Brendan,
Rule #7:
By doing the math on that poll, it looks like 100% of the respondents chose one of those 3 options, which leads me to believe those were the only 3 options. That doesn't really sound like a guage of the support for intervention, but more of an "Obameter". Can you provide a link to it? I haven't seen it yet.
Reuters page
Reuters page
JFT, Why are you bothering us
JFT,
Why are you bothering us with this American rubbish?
To try and improve your
To try and improve your education. However that is a forlorn hope.
I think it highlights very
I think it highlights very well the criticisms by the legislative branch of the muddled actions of the executive branch. Some of the issues raised by Boehner are issues that perhaps you should be asking of your own government.
After the terrorist attacks
After the terrorist attacks of 9/11, Americans were bewildered, and the question that kept circulating was "Why?". It was a national debate: "Why do they hate us?" Perhaps the best answer came from Bill Maher, who responded, "They hate us because we don't know why they hate us".
Maybe it is because the Arabs can read, and when they do they see things like this:
Or this:
Or this:
Or this:
And this:
We have the power to intervene in Arab countries with devastating effect, but for all of our claims to be doing so for "humanitarian reasons", it doesn't look like our motivations or our actions match our words.
I strongly believe that this is happening for all the wrong reasons--i.e., domestic elections--and that we are doing so with a complete disregard for the future of Libyans.
I strongly believe that this
I totally agree, except in the case of GB where I don't think that is the case. It's certainly the case here in Canuckistan.
Still, statements like this give me the warm fuzzies:
Followed the same day by a story like this
Causal link? I can't prove it, but what effect does the intervention have on protesters losing their fear while regimes get a little more cautious?
Brendan,Still, statements
Brendan,
Honestly, I enjoy reading them too. I hope this works out for the best. It is nice to see an international effort that is actually an international effort.
No. It's the same for the
No. It's the same for the UK, Brendan. We've got a government which is frantically trying to look as if it's in control of something as it (predictably) loses the plot on the economy. The Foreign Secretary, Hague, is particularly desperate to stop looking like he'd rather be in Philadelphia. It's pure diversion theatre.
The Netherlands have now
The Netherlands have now joined the coalition (6 fighters). Turkey's parliament has agreed to join the navel blockade (4 frigates and a sub). In addition, as soon as tomorrow, NATO will be taking over command and control of the mission now that Turkey has agreed.
Looks like Sweden is about to commit 6 blond nurses if NATO so requests. These brave nurses will endevour to coax Moammar out of the country by offering free check-ups to Supreme Leaders on the Tunisian Island of Djerba. [unverified]
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