Obama: Icon of Hope, Not an Agent of Transformation

Clearly, it is too early to write anything on President Obama and his impact in a historical sense. As of yet, he is neither what his supporters fervently hoped for, nor entirely what his detractors have made him out to be.That said, the portents for Obama are not positive. While President Bush's harsh rhetoric and "Texas Swagger" clearly alienated many around the world (and educated "elite" opinion most of all), President Obama seems to have substituted style for substance on many issues while neglecting long-term American interests. Several examples:

1. Despite the relative technical merits (which appear to be meaningful) associated with his decision to scrap the Bush Administration’s BMD plan in Poland and the Czech Republic, it was a clumsily executed act that appeared like an ill fated attempt at a quid pro quo with Russia while raising questions about American commitments to allies;
2. While his high sounding rhetoric did improve the tone of international debate, it was so apologetic as to border on the obsequious which does nothing to earn him the gratitude of many patriotic Americans (not all of which are raving right-wing lunatics contrary to many of the manufactured impressions often digested abroad). Could not a bit more balance have rectified the excesses of the Bush years without coming off as knee jerk over reaction?
3. The decision to close Guantanamo Bay without thinking through what to do with those held there and the amazingly bizarre decision to try Khalid Sheik Mohammed in domestic, civilian court both look like policy and PR disasters in the making. The KSM decision itself appears primed for catastrophe. Either KSM is convicted which will frustrate those who believe the Bush Administration erred in its handling of terrorism post-9/11 or he will be acquitted, thus angering millions of Americans who see KSM as an emblem of an attack that severely shook the nation's confidence. There is no good outcome to this. Obama clearly showed his legal instincts here, not his statesmanship. Rather than hone his leadership by going forward with a military tribunal, he now raises so many ethical and logistical issues that it is unclear how he will be able to close Pandora's box. Leadership, something he is so often given credit for having in spades, is about more than legalistic wrangling. Often times, it is about making the best out of a bad situation. In this case he made what might superficially look like a "courageous" decision, but one that will dog him no matter the outcome and sap valuable political capital;
4. The pollyannaish push for "Global Zero" may make many people "feel good" about his efforts to make the world "peaceful", but it is an impossible dream. Additionally, there is an interesting, and legitimate, argument that nuclear weapons, perhaps, counter-intuitively, have led to relative world peace by putting a lid of "Great Power" conflict of the World War I and II type. Without considering this, Obama has lent his stature to a policy goal that is unlikely to be successful, and may well be wrong.
5. While not "abandoning our allies" as some on the hyperventilating right argue, he has clearly placed more emphasis on reaching out to multiple regimes who actually have little incentive to come to the negotiating table in good faith such as Iran. Even worse, he has failed to maintain top notch relations with long-time allies like Great Britain (who feels rather snubbed) and India (a rising power that former President Bush worked hard to bring into the international system).
6. He has done nothing for international trade, which is becoming a source of frustration in East Asia as China continues its rise.
7. He has raised the bar on thorny domestic issues like global climate change and health care without having a real policy goal in mind. He outsourced both major policy decisions to Congress and only stepped into the mix when it became obvious that both issues were careening towards disaster in Congress. In other words, he let his rhetoric do all the talking without matching policy to words and then allowed the left wing of his party to think it could enjoy a bonanza. Another example of a lack of leadership.
8. While his final decision of Afghanistan may be appropriate, there does seem to be a need to greatly reformulate US "Af-Pak" policy, he squandered its roll out in a particularly public way. This has damaged his appearance of decisiveness. He should have waited longer before trotting out the COIN strategy so early in his Administration until he was sure that was a wise choice.

All in all, Obama's rhetoric and very presence makes him a rock star with enormous reservoirs of good will globally to draw upon. However, he seems to be, substantively, little more than a conventional politician with conventional, left of center views. His presidency is not yet a failure by any means, but, it seems likely, that it will never be a ringing success. At best, it appears it will be a perpetual "muddling through" with the potential of making serious mistakes that will harm America's overall position in the world.Obama should find the "radical center", because that is where success lies. So far he is not showing himself capable of doing this. Such a failure will haunt his Administration and guarantee that he will be seen more as an icon of hope than a real agent of transformation.