Excellent article in the American Thinker that many here may dismiss on the basis of its origin. But to do so is to dismiss the reality that the argument asserted (considered specious by the Left) is very real and palatable to Israelis living under the threat of extinction by rogue Iranian state, unreliable allies, and a hand-wringing, self-absorbed Socialist Europe. A few excerpts below.
The Holocaust weighs heavily on Israel and its leaders. Everyone knows the story of Jewish organizations pleading for help but helpless before the indifference of those in a position to make a difference. This history discourages looking at the world through rose-colored glasses. American liberals blithely dismiss the Iran threat because they assume that Iran is rational, that it will never attack Israel with nuclear weapons because of the threat of retaliation. Israelis are not inclined to put their faith in this convenient theory that validates inaction. Obama says that he has Israel's back. But what if, when things get difficult, he doesn't have Israel's back? Countries have interests, not friends.
The Israelis have the capacity to mount a substantial attack. Exactly how effective this would be depends on factors hidden by the fog of war. Currently the U.S. has two carrier task forces in or near the Persian Gulf. If the Israelis attack, the U.S. will certainly have at least an hour's advance notice, if not much more. Our radar planes will see the Israeli's coming. If the Israelis attack, the Iranians have threatened to close the Straits. Although they cannot win a navel war in the Gulf, they certainly have the capacity to cause a lot of trouble. It would seem not to be in the Iranians' interest to close the Straits, but they may just decide to roll the dice and do it. We just don't know and can't make a confident prediction. If we sit back and let the Iranians take the initiative, we will be in a much worse position than if we blast the Iranian assets before they can take action.
The Iranians may see it to be to their advantage to close the Strait. If remotely controllable mines were used, the Iranians might be in a position to open and close the Strait as they desired. They could blackmail the West by offering to let tankers through in exchange for concessions. This probably wouldn't work and would lead to increased military pressure on Iran, but the Iranians, having been treated to a weak Western response to their nuclear bomb program, might underestimate the U.S. and other countries.
The Israeli Army Chief
The Israeli Army Chief disagrees with you. Hardly someone you could label as a hand-wringing, self absorbed Socialist. Personally, I put more weight on his opinion than some pundit with nothing at stake.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/26/world/middleeast/israeli-army-chief-says-he-believes-iran-wont-build-bomb.html?_r=1&hp
No...I would never label the
No...I would never label the IDF chief a "hand-wringing, self-absorbed Socialist." Clearly, that is the role of the European Left. But what makes you think the pundit (author) has nothing at stake? The whole freakin' world has something at stake....actually a whole lot at stake!
And frankly, the weight you place on the opinion of the IDF Chief is largely irrelevant when it comes to a national decision to use force. The Israeli military is a tool of the political leadership, not the other way around. It will be the political leadership that orders the IDF Chief to take action or will name his replacement. And the political leadership does not share his views.
I would not be surprised to see him quietly retire in the very near future--something he may already have in mind and allowed him to freely share his opinion. Something that observers found unusual.
This likely signals the end of his military career and possibly the beginning of a political one.
Dunno, Mike. I think Benny
Dunno, Mike. I think Benny Gantz just voiced what a lot of upper-echelon military and intelligence professionals are thinking and have probably been saying (behind closed doors). According to The Washington Post article, Gantz's comments "reflect the Israeli intelligence community’s assessment that Iran has not yet decided to make nuclear weapons, as well as the Israeli military’s concern about the potential fallout of an Israeli strike."
You might also consider that Netanyahu and Barak, fully aware of Gantz's and other senior military and intelligence folks' opinions, encouraged him to voice them openly. This gives them the cover to continue to talk tough while at the same time sending a message to Iran, the region and the West that Israel isn't going to do anything precipitate.
Personally, I think Israel needs to hold off as long as it can and wait to see what happens. I think Israel's (and our own) intelligence services are up to the challenge of knowing when exactly Iran goes ahead with bomb-building. Until then, perhaps it's best to continue political and economic pressure, rally allies, fine-tune its military options and, for now at least, keep its gun in its holster.
I suppose it's possible
I suppose it's possible Netanyahu and Barak are sabre rattling for domestic consumption and using the IDF chief to communicate a different message to external actors. However, it's unusual for there to be open criticism of the political leadership by the military without consequences...think MacArthur in Korea.
I don't disagree with your assessment of what Israel "ought" to do and has the capacity to do. But motivation and political will are trickier. I wonder how much the "never again" holocaust mentality might play into it. Hard to anticipate the actions of a country that (correctly or incorrectly) perceives an existential threat. Neither country is dispassionate in its assessment of the other's motives and capabilities.
The author is arguing that
The author is arguing that Israel should attack Iran because the reaction from Iran will cause oil to skyrocket and that he hopes, will keep Obama from getting re elected. He also mentions that an Israeli attack would create an unstable hair trigger situation, so "understandably" the Israeli preference would be for the US to do it.
He concludes that Israel will do what they can to start a war between the US and Iran in order to get the job done. Jewish conspiracy theories anyone?
The "downside" for the US attacking before this "imminent" attack from Iran is a "quick decisive victory" could get Obama re elected.
It's also implied that the instability in the region (Israel and Iran going rogue) is supposedly coming from Obama not embracing the Bush doctrine of preemption.
The only concerns about any of this potential activity is price of oil, loss of some ships and Obama's reelection.
In all, if not written for the Onion, its yet another example of how narrow minded and detached from reality Republicans are and that there's no bottom for how low they're willing to go to try to win an election.
Mike's more than capable of
Mike's more than capable of defending his own posts, so I'll leave that to him. I'd just like to point out how ridiculous it is to take one person's post, on a specific topic or policy issue, and close with something like this:
If you disagree, please plug the word "democrats" in for republicans. Labelling a group using the ideas or writings of one of its members is moronic.
I had intended to answer
I had intended to answer Candace, but when I got to the bottom and read that line, it was clear that she was interested in grinding an axe, not engaging in civil discourse. I mean really...why bother?
I guess she is just marking her territory.
She'll be throwing in her lot
She'll be throwing in her lot with the Fascist Left next !
Would this be a good time to
Would this be a good time to point out that the opening post (which is actually pretty mild by Mike's standards) contains sweeping generalisations about both "the Left" and Europe?
Or is Henry's comment intended to be either funny or ironic?
Now just because I
Now just because I offer sweeping generalizations doesn't mean they're wrong. ;-) I notice you did not disagree with any of them...and thanks for noticing my "milder" approach. Is it working?
No.
No.
I agree with Owly.
I agree with Owly.
How dare you.
How dare you.
Hi Henry, That wasn't a
Hi Henry,
That wasn't a comment on Mike's post, that was about the ARTICLE he linked to, as was the rest of what I wrote.
I avoided reading this thread when I saw you commented after me because of your reputation for ridicule. You can imagine my surprise when I read your post today. I don't mind criticism or hashing things out when it's genuine (still don't know if you were) but you usually only talk to someone when you want to make fun of them.
Look how nice you treated Mike on a subject that you normally blast people for and look how Mike was trying to smooth over what he posted that was meant to antagonize. I make a comment about Republicans, you give Mike an out, and the discussion is over?
You're all so weird.
minhajquazi, I have no idea
minhajquazi,
I have no idea who you're talking to, but since you're new and you're English is a tad tough to understand, I'll say this: Usually when anyone claims a profession on a forum they want to be considered an authority. For some, that means they won't accept a different opinion certainly not from a woman. They arrive to teach their truth not to share different views.
And when someone mentions 'who benefits from this war' and understanding 'the game' its usually an intro to a conspiracy theory often of the Jewish variety.
Is that what you're doing on this thread? If so, that would be an extremely obnoxious introduction.
I'm going to make a request,
I'm going to make a request, hopefully Mike doesn't delete it. I don't come here to talk to Americans. I can do that anytime.
If there's any Israelis or Iranians out there that isn't totally put off by what's happening on this forum (I would be surprised if there was) and wouldn't mind giving their opinion and views on the subject of this thread and even Romney's visit to Israel, I would certainly appreciate getting the opportunity to read their views! I think most people visiting here would.
But just make sure you save your post, just in case Mike deletes it. That goes to anyone that posts here on this forum. You could also email someone on the oD team about it if he does. http://www.opendemocracy.net/about/team
Also, unless they changed it, if you report a post to a moderator it goes to him, so that doesn't do anything. I don't know if the oD team will even notice or care about the forum but the click to this site and taking the time to read any posts is worth the couple minutes to give it a try. I think so. :D
If there's any Israelis or
Interesting idea. I just read an article that speaks to that and deserves its own thread. Romney has been criticized by the Left for his support of Israel.
I have also no idea who you
I have also no idea who you are too! I am surprised why does the authority delete my post from here?
Do you think it is called democracy that prevents to talk but saying "open democracy"? It is ludicrious indeed.
Previous post, it was I as
Previous post, it was I as a/c had not worked perfectly that represented anonymous.
I only say your comment was just ambigous(beating about the bush!) or it seems us to show over smartness, nothing else. I am from Dhaka.
Hi minhajquazi,to clarify: I
Hi minhajquazi,
to clarify: I said I didn't know who you were talking to not that I didn't know who you were.
My name is Candace. I had not intended to come back to this site because as is, its not user friendly. There are a couple people that I am familiar with here and that is why I usually return. (I registered 6 years ago)
About my name: The last time I logged into my account I changed my password to something I didn't try to remember so I haven't logged in. Prior to that I switched the name out of boredom and then curiosity about online perception of knowing people .. also inspired after a book I read called "the spell of the sensuous" word magic.. etc.http://www.amazon.com/The-Spell-Sensuous-Perception-More-Than-Human/dp/0679776397
I only just found the password to the email that logged me into my original account. I'll have a different IP in a somewhat soonish amount of time so they won't know who I am unless I sign in. I'll have to find that unless there is a problem with my account. Mike has been implying there is. I have no idea because I haven't tried. I'm not too concerned about it unless I get a conversation going on the forum but then I just wouldn't post here.
I did get a reply from Andrew Hyde though. I was surprised by that.
About my post request: I didn't guess that you were from Iran or Israel. If that's what you meant. I made the request for opinions of people from those two countries because of the topic and because in general online, and in person I tend to get along with people from the Middle East better than most other areas for some reason. (well there and Australia) but being from that area of the world is not a requirement to converse.
I post on another forum and occasionally various news sites but here you have an opportunity for a more one on one conversation. sometimes that's nice, others its a nightmare. there hasn't been anyone who normally posts on opendemocracy I've been interested in talking to in this environment anyway about anything serious for sometime (that works better on skype) I think of it almost like alternate reality blog space of blog spaces. I love how weird the forum is. I can't help it. It's a great place to unload..There's a couple of nice people here too.
You're probably also a nice person. You would probably be better off posting on the disqus section of the site. You shouldn't have to deal with the Iron Mike problem. None of us should.
About Iron Mike and his ability to edit and delete comments. Unfortunately he has been given trust by the owners of this site to represent their ideas about how they want this forum space to function. He's decided to betray that trust and abandon all integrity of the position he volunteered for to which one could only conclude to be very bizarre reasons. I have apparently hurt his feelings and embarrassed him and he's not getting over it. He's wants to me to feel something for him, he's working overtime to try to hurt me because I cant feel the other kind of emotion but I feel nothing but a bit of sadness for someone who gave up a somewhat ok reputation as a Republican humorless looney to be a forum hooligan with the ability to edit and delete comments when he gets angry and troll people trying to enjoy themselves and have honest conversations.
I also feel some irritation that this old forum has another problem it probably wont fix.
Or maybe we should feel concern. It could be that he has high blood pressure with a potential for a stroke coming on. He's in that danger age range for men. 50+ That can make people temperamental and wacky too. You never know whats happening to people when you cant see or hear them.
So anyway, in short your post was targeted and deleted because I replied to it. He'll probably do the same thing again. Just be sure you report what he did. (anyone else can too) But dont use the report post option. You would be reporting it to him. The owners of this site tend to overlook the forum space and Iron Mike knows that.
I've been making screenshots of all my posts lately which is something I hope I dont have to do again (something you can do with word2010 don't know if you can earlier) I did it for yours also in case Mike decided to go wacko and delete comments again. Its a shame what happened to him hopefully opendemocracy pulls the plug on his deleting/editing powers.That's kinda scary thought too though because you can see that this environment and the opinions people have of him are very important.
you should know that anyone that has gotten emails from him knows that he works for US government in security, high on the food chain, which explains some of this country's problems. That's not a conspiracy theory. Hopefully hes not as nuts on the job as he is here.
if you want to visit opendemocracy, the disqus section of the site is far better. This place is ok when Jay and Brendan or talking to each other. They are smart and funny good guys. Mike is a humorless lying moron.
But anyway, welcome to the forum! good luck here, (sorry if TMI..)
Hopefully you or anyone else will share more of your opinions at the forum and Mike wont delete them
Bombing Iran's nuclear
Bombing Iran's nuclear program would be counter productive. It is not centered in any one area. Parts of it are built underground specifically to discourage air strikes.
Even if mutliple strikes succeeded in disabling large sections of the program, the program itself would still survive. The Iranians would simply learn from the strike. They would repair what was hit, protect it even harder and go on.
At best, multiple air strikes would only delay Iran's nuclear program by a couple of years. At worst, it would unite the Iranian people to strike back regardless of the sacrifice. The best course is to let international sanctions continue. It is starting to work. The Iranian people are blaming the mullahs for lost supports for food and fuel and the lack of jobs.
It may take years for the sanctions to affect political change in Iran, but that would be quicker than foreign intervention.
One of the factoids I
One of the factoids I remember from War College is that sanctions work less than 30% of the time because they are rarely used in a holistic strategy to pressure the target state. You may be right that it will take years to work. The question for Israel is whether they have years remaining before Iran acquires and exercises a first strike capability...something the leadership has been promising for years.
To anonymous!I am surprised
To anonymous!
I am surprised how much you wrote to appease the matter. Please don't write to many as
-much addo means nothing. What you wrote maximum don't make any sense or it makes ambigous. I registered here in December,2011. It doesn't give me any advantages If I were here 10 yeras back. Matter is what I write that conveys the message to all clearly. That is why it is most important not to be a person of guile or to be a person of con artist to the audience.
And,that was why I introduced my identity that I am a lawyer which was not irrelevant anywhere till now. I am against the all uncouth so called politicians around the world whomever he is. I have that vocal voice from my early life and I have been writing for 30 years from my college life----so it is not from a tadpole as you seemed to be saying!
Knowing good grammar doesn't work all time---please don't forget it.
Minhajquazi,How strange. You
Minhajquazi,
How strange. You were bothered by that post? You must be a man. There are too many guys posting on this forum. They have active imaginations about how women are saying something to them on the internet except they can't conceive of the fact that they're imagining it, or even consider they might be wrong. They will tell you how you intended to say something and because I'm a woman I must bow my head, protect his fragile ego and accept the insinuation that I must be lying or I don't know any better--and these guys normally read English just fine, so its even more preposterous to be getting this vague hostility from someone who obviously does not.
I don't have the same trouble on any other forum. I think that is because the average age is not...what 60? The next time I talk to any of you guys I'll add it with
Did I offend you sir? Oh, I'm so sorry sir. Did you need something?
I still stick by my first post to you.
Also I don't care who you are, how old or what your profession is. You could be 12 years old or 102 for all I know. You made a comment try to defend or explain it or please talk to someone else.
minhajquazi, Open Democracy
minhajquazi,
Open Democracy without rules or guidelines is "Open Anarchy". Your original post was deleted because it appeared to violate posting rules. It resembled a large number of posts received on this site from SPAM bots. It had broken English and embedded hyperlinks that appeared to be advertising. It was deleted as a violation of site rules. I hope you understand.
Please excuse the poster "Here" also known as Candace. She suffers from a narcissistic complex where all conversations must be about her. She rambles on at length and says little. It's a very sad case and for some reason, she is still tolerated here....probably because even the mentally ill are part of a democracy. It is best to simply ignore her. Eventually, she will get bored and go away.
Best wishes and welcome to oD. I am very interested in what kind of law you practice and in what country. I would also be interested in your views on the topic of Iran which is the subject of this thread.
troll
troll
I forgot! Did I offend you
I forgot!
Did I offend you sir? Oh, I'm so sorry sir. Did you need something?
Hi Mike!Nice to meet you and
Hi Mike!
Nice to meet you and thanks as you have given me the chance to say something here.
My benign request is we must read much more writing a country's political position as it is often lies by a lot of history behind it.
First of all, I am neither a fanatic nor a chauvinist one by anymeans that tells me Isreal should be much tolarable than they are now. I heard this country's common people or segacious guys are always against the all chaos where we see the politicians are not! The behind histroy might have led them to be obstinate, but better education should be prevailed as common people do.
Look, I have much sympathey toward the Jews in the 2ww in Germany and I am a fan of Albert Ienstien too,but when I see Isreal sometimes doesn't follow the rule it makes me convince it must come by some uncouath politicians motions in Isreal as well as in the Middle East other countries.
By hook or by crook, we must stop these dirty politicians around us whom are the liable for all war in the world. These quarted educated politicians are now controlling the world politics around us, we must be caustious from them as they ignite the war for their means.
It is a buring need to have B. Russel, Ghandi, George Washington around us now---I am sure they are alive as world's over all better education has spread than in the past!
Mike I am fond of Law subject(a law graduate) rather practice in the court much. I practice all -Criminal, Civil and corporate law. As I have come with masters in Business that leads me to political economy too. I am now 47 and resident in Dhaka.
Kind regards.
minhajquazi I'm glad you
minhajquazi
I'm glad you chose to return and contribute to the forum and I must confess that my knowledge of Bangledesh and your capitol city of Dhaka is limited to what is available online. So it will be good to get the perspective of someone like you who is not coming from a Western or European cultural perspective (and political bias) and yet, trained in the law.
You are clearly sympathetic to the history of persecution suffered by the Jewish people and yet, you have a very pragmatic view of their present Israeli politics. They have done many things which I do not like, but I tend to give them a bit more understanding since their nation has been opposed by its arab neighbors from the very start to present. They are a people who have been continously at war and have become too comfortable with the cruelties of war. I understand it, but I don't like it.
Nevertheless, Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons and publically call for the eradication of the Jewish state. That is the position of those in power--the religious and political leadership, not necessarily the people of Iran. As a lawyer, what is you legal opinion of pre-emptive war? Would Israel be justified to attack Iran if it perceives Iran is preparing to attack them with nuclear weapons and wipe their nation from the face of the earth?
Thanks for your consideration.
Thanks Mike.My knowledge in
Thanks Mike.
My knowledge in the Law certainly not up to the good mark yet, though understanding basic international law is not so poor! From this perspective, no country has the right to attack on the other countries without valid reasons(these reasons you can easily get from the internet searching, like-when a country can attack on neibhors country?) unless she is being attacked by the other.
Problem is history tells us powerful countries have had the bad records in this regard! That is why whenever you like to preach to other that can imply you to watch their face first on the mirror.
Nevertheless, our Geo-political situation is much complicated than we can get solution immediate behind a lot of bitter history.
Mike, we have nothing to loose if we all hold our self first as we are all tied up by international arena, where we all need better education only-----we must avoid all racist and fanatic people all around the world---we need open mind, open democracy and open debating now.
Best regards.
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