Cheap Applause for Australia

Today, within minutes of taking office, Kevin Rudd - new Australian PM - ratified Kyoto.

His timing was perfect. Official business had just begun here in Bali and the way was cleared for Howard Bamsey, Australia's lead negotiator, to ring the glad tidings in the opening plenary. Delegates were ecstatic. It was, said Yvo de Boer, the UN's top official on climate, 'an emotional and spontaneous reaction.'

Now, one has to be pleased for Bamsey. After years of being shunned at climate negotiations, adulation from his peers is surely a welcome fillip. No longer does he have to skulk around with Harlan Watson, his counterpart for the United States, now the only Kyoto refusenik.

But I wonder if Bamsey felt a fleeting guilt as the international community rolled over at his feet. After all, under John Howard, it was his job to point out to the international community that Australia was 'shadowing' its Kyoto target and was well on track to meet it by 2012. Australia energy use is increasing, sure - but improvements in land use and forestry are just about adequate compensation.

Indeed, it's only a year ago that Mr Bamsey was writing a stern letter to Mr de Boer expressing his anger at the UNFCCC's failure to recognise Australia's sterling track record in controlling greenhouse gases.

Three thoughts about this episode. First, delegates' joy this morning was most of all stimulated by the thought of inevitable US discomfort at its increased isolation. Around half the questions the US team faced at its lunchtime press briefing referenced the Australia decision.

Second, it's so much easier to be a deal maker, when your domestic record helps you out. The chances of the Americans belatedly ratifying Kyoto are now reckoned to be slightly less than zero. It's Kyoto target was a seven percent reduction in greenhouse gases between 1990 and 2012. Its current figures show a 16.3 percent increase.

Finally, watch out to see if Australia faces some tougher questions in the next couple of weeks. Kyoto countries are talking seriously about a 25-40% reduction in emissions by 2020. How will Mr Rudd feel about that? And will the Ozzies take a hard line on near neighbour China?

It's going to take some time to see Mr Rudd's Australia fits into the Kyoto club...