Breaking: Bush climate talks in trouble

There is growing evidence that the EU has threatened to boycott the US major economies process on climate change, "unless there is a substantive outcome" from Bali.

Bali is turning into an asymmetrical battle. The EU badly needs everyone to agree a deal, while the US only needs a few countries to object if it decides to derail the negotiations.

But an EU boycott of US-sponsored talks would be a major slap in the face for the Bush administration. It represents one of the few negotiating cards the EU holds at these talks.

The story has been circulating since yesterday evening, when the French environment minister was said to have had an acrimonious meeting with Paula Dobriansky, head of the US delegation.

US - hubristic, arrogant

The Europeans don't like the message they're getting from the Americans that the IPCC goal of a 25-40% target is based on insufficient evidence to be a useful guide.

"We don't need new studies and research," the German Environment Minister, Sigmar Gabriel. "If we ask the scientists, they're just going to tell us the same thing. We have to reduce 25-40% in developed countries if we want to be on target for 2050.

"It's not a question of known science. It's a question of mathematics. These questions of mathematics are clear since the Egyptians taught us to count."

US response: fat chance

A few minutes ago, US negotiator, Harlan Watson, made it crystal clear that he has absolutely no intention of signing up to the draft Bali roadmap.

That's no to a 25-40% target by 2020 for developed countries - something Watson thinks would prejudge negotiations and be "totally unrealistic for many countries."

And no, to adding to the text a goal to keep temperatures below 2 degrees, a key European demand. That would not be a helpful starting point for negotiations, he says.

Watson also called for the draft text to be dramatically shortened and simplified, telling the media that "almost every delegation thinks its too long."

A União Européia não diz nada

The EU was saying as little as possible at its press conference this morning.

On the Bali roadmap, its fairly happy with the proposed text, but wants more ambition. However, its main message was the need for urgency. Negotiations will not be completed by 2009 unless a detailed work plan is agreed now for the next couple of years.

Nuno Lacasta, the Portuguese negotiator who speaks for the EU, batted away any requests for specifics on the EU position. He would not be negotiating in the press room, he said. Some very dour press conferences are in prospect...

Saying no to markets

Over the past year or so, a number of economists and other market-friendly commentators have fallen out of love with market solutions to climate change. Most of them would prefer a carbon tax - which is, on the face of it, surprising.

‘Economists demand new taxes' is not a commonly used headline. So what's going on?

Martin Wolf, the FT's chief economic commentator, is one of those leading the charge for taxes. Unlike some who rely purely utilitarian arguments, Wolf is refreshingly explicit about his libertarian (or as a Brit would put it, liberal) concerns.

Breaking: Date set for next 'major emitters' meeting

At his press briefing today, I asked Harlan Watson, lead US negotiator, whether he could confirm that the US had recently sent round invites to a second meeting on climate change for the major economies.

It turns out the meeting has been scheduled for the end of January in Honolulu, but had not yet been publicly announced.  Read the rest of this post...