A solid start

As I suggested yesterday, NGOs have reacted positively to the draft agreement on future commitments. But there's a good chance that their mood will darken as the week goes on.

They'd have preferred mention of 2 degrees in the text and stronger language on legally binding targets. They are also keen to see a clear plan for how the negotiations will be conducted.

But my guess is that, as the week goes on, the text is more likely to be diluted than strengthened.

The Saudis have already made it clear that they're opposed to key elements of the text. Malaysia is also against starting formal negotiations.

The US and Canada seem likely to join this group, while there are question marks about the positions of Japan and Australia (though it's worth noting that the latter's chief negotiator worked with his South African counterpart to draft the proposed text).

Meanwhile, there's always the chance developing countries will balk at the commitments they're being asked to make.

So the mood was pretty chipper at this morning's press conference, but expect the fireworks to start if these countries manage to water down the proposed text.