Rudd to the rescue?

Australia's position has been all over the place here in Bali. On day 1, it was showered with praise for ratifying Kyoto (a politically costless task as it is already on track to meet its target).

Since then, it has flip flopped over targets for industrialized countries. Today, its trade minister has further fanned the flames of discontent.

"Australia's task is at the appropriate time to commit to targets but it's also to try and secure binding commitments from developing countries," Simon Crean is reported as saying by ABC News.

Ismid Hadad, Secretary-General of Indonesia's delegation, seemed a little nonplussed when I read him this quote and asked for comment. Indonesia have invited Trade Ministers to Bali this weekend for an informal meeting that runs alongside the main UN conference.

They're rather proud of the initiative. It's the first time that the implications of trade for climate change have been considered in this way. Thirty-two countries have sent representatives - with Ministers from twelve countries, including the USA, Australia, Brazil, and Portugal (which has the EU Presidency) - making the trip.

So what of Mr Crean's comments? Irmin Hadad dispatched them with the usual formula: developing countries have no obligations under the present framework, and that's how he expects it to stay. There was a role for Australia in helping poor countries develop more sustainably, he said.

Yvo de Boer takes a similar position. Yesterday, he told the press that there was little prospect of binding caps for developing countries "It's not off the table, but I have a feeling it's crawling towards the edge," he said.

So why is Australia's position proving so ambiguous? There are two common interpretations.

Conspiracy: its commitment to combating climate is only skin deep (many of the NGOs fear this is true).

Cock-up: the new government is finding its feet, while its negotiating team retains ingrained habits from the Howard era (you'll hear this from the delegations).

I prefer a slightly different conspiracy theory. Kevin Rudd sees himself as a potential savour at these talks, riding in next week to ‘build a bridge' between China and the rest of the world.

Why not play down expectations in week one, then? Then Rudd stun us all with a big announcement. What better way to add to the lustre of his honeymoon period, both at home and abroad.