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It's still going on...


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Despite the waning of media and public interest, the daily violence in Iraq sadly continues. A lull in attacks by the insurgency after the elections seemed to indicate that a "corner had been turned". However, that does not seem quite so certain now... U.S. death toll in Iraq surges amid rebel violence WASHINGTON, May 31 (Reuters) - The death toll for American troops in Iraq rose in May to the highest level since January, with the U.S. military saying on Tuesday insurgents have doubled their number of daily attacks since April. This latest spree of violence by insurgents, who rose up after the American-led invasion in 2003 toppled President Saddam Hussein, put a dramatic end to a period when attacks on U.S. forces had waned after the historic Jan. 30 elections. At least 77 U.S. troops were killed in May, according to a count of deaths announced by the military. That is the highest toll since 107 Americans were killed in January. It marked the second straight monthly increase since 36 U.S. troops died in March, among the lowest tolls of the war. Lt. Col. Steve Boylan, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, said insurgents are staging about 70 attacks nationwide per day... Reuters In fact, it seems to many of us that Iraq is decending into a civil war. At the moment the various groups are united in their opposition to the Coalition presence. But, once the troops are inevitably withdrawn, they will begin to turn on one another. It seems that the Coalition are powerless to prevent this. By using Shiite forces to try and quell Sunni insurgents, they may have even inflamed the situation further. 'America kept in dark' as carnage escalates U.S. TV accused of ignoring situation Iraq on brink of civil war, analysts say WASHINGTON—When the man in the white van slowed, the group of labourers from Kut, southeast of Baghdad, approached him in the hope they would be offered work. Instead he offered death. As the workers approached, the man blew up his van, killing himself and the men who had tentatively moved to him in trust, sending body parts hurtling through the sky and, according to witnesses, turning the nearest hospital into a blood-stained shrine of futility, overwhelmed by the number and severity of the casualties. The scene was played out many times over in Iraq this week, where a spike in insurgent violence has placed the country on the precipice of civil war. More than 450 Iraqis have been slaughtered in the past two weeks in a direct challenge to a new Iraqi government, making those heady days of the January election seem like something from the distant past. The euphoria of the purple thumb, the symbol of the bravery of voters, has given way to a river of blood-red in some of the worst violence in the post-Saddam era. "We are on the edge of civil war," said Noah Feldman, a New York University professor and chief U.S. adviser to Iraq on the writing of the country's new constitution. Toronto Star


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Re: It's still going on...
Matt, I agree that the violence in Iraq continues apace, a bit like two steps forward, one step back. I'm not so sure one should take fears about a Civil War at face value. The same fears were expressed last summer and nothing came of it. Like Butterfield's Middle Class, the threats of Civil War (and the unsurgency itself) are "always rising." Indeed, the statements by the Iraqi President last week praising the Shiite and Kurdish militias are disturbing only by indicating how uncompromising the Sunni sheiks are being in their negotiations with the Baghdad government. Of course it may have worked, as the latest agreement indicates the Sunni's will get 25% of the constitutional convention slots. All sides have their own ways to influence the process; the Sunni's through passive and less passive support of foreign jihadi's, the Shiite militia through killings of Sunni imams and the Kurds through revenge killings and their wild-card of declaring independence at last resort. I suspect the election will take place in December, though the Iraqi's are going to want something to be resolved with Syria by then. Tim



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Re: It's still going on...
Tim, One can only hope that you're right about reports of civil war being exaggerated. Hopefully the new government will bring a sense of stability and progression to the country. Though I fear that political dealing, and western interference (through organisations like the IMF) could prove problematic. I've also long believed that once the Coalition presence is scaled-back, and attacks increasingly focused on Iraqi forces, general support for the insurgency will start to evaporate. It's one thing to see foreign troops hit, another to see your own people dying. How well the different groups can work together will also be a crucial point in the success or failure of the new Iraq.


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