Neal Ascherson (London and Argyll, author): In Scotland, the utterly un-British spectacle of an effective and popular minority government is still on stage. Bad times for Alex Salmond's SNP government must be ahead somewhere. So far, though, the performance has been dazzling. Predictions that Salmond wold come unstuck over the budget have not come true: typically, he split the opposition by striking a budget policy deal with the Tories at Holyrood. And indeed, the opposition is in astonishing confusion. Labour is still lamed by the looming scandal over leader Wendy Alexander's personal campaign funding, a problem which has been magnified by her numerous enemies within the party. The ex-first Minister Henry McLeish, nominally still Labour, is co-operating busily with Salmond on a government prisons inquiry, and some think he might eventually cross to the SNP ranks.
The opposition has now established an informal 'constitutional commission'. Leaders of Labour, Tory and Lib-Dems in Scotland met on January 15th in London with their British leaders to discuss the future of devolution. The commission is intended to shoot the SNP fox, by urging further transfer of government powers to Edinburgh and demonstrating that independence is unnecessary. But there are two problems here. First, the theory that further autonomy for Scotland reduces the independence vote has always proved false: on the contrary, it tends to build the political self-confidence needed to push the independence case. Secondly, when Scottish Labour argues for 'devolution plus', maybe even the transfer of taxation powers to Scotland, it is up against Gordon Brown's inflexible opposition - up to now - to any tinkering with the 1997 Scotland Act.
That will have to change, surely, in face of the agreement of the three opposition parties that 'devolution- plus' is now unavoidable. Meanwhile, Alex Salmond can smile at the thought that his rivals are doing his work for him. The feeling in Edinburgh is that Gordon Brown has seriously lost control of events, and even of his own party in Scotland. Desmond Browne, the Scottish Secretary, is apparently refusing Salmond's request to give Holyrood control of elections, in case that is used to enable an independence referendum. But in fact the 'devolution plus' schemes of the opposition may lead to a referendum anyway. Support for independence in Scotland still hovers around its usual 30 per cent or so. But opinion polls show the sense of 'Britishness' steadily bleeding away - now down to about 21 per cent. Salmond would lose an independence referendum today, as he knows. But his long game is to change the landscape by a combination of SNP political success, good governance, and Westminster obstruction of 'reasonable' Scottish demands. A few years on, the prospect of a Scottish nation-state within the EU, no longer dependent on London, could look much more persuasive.
Comments
Does ANYONE still see Gordon Brown as a smart operator? He wraps himself in the Union Flag when even the English have given it up.
It's not just Gordon Brown - there is a complete lack of informed, positive, confident unionism. All we get is a sneering negativity.
The SNP should not be too hard on Brown because Brown like Mcleish is a closet Scottish Nationalist.
When Brown succeeds in wiping the auld enemy off the map forever with the aid of quisling English MP's
he will return victorious to Scotland.
What tends to be forgotten is that there has been a considerable body of people in Scotland that has long accepted that Scotland should be an independent state. Quite sophisticated, intelligent people at that. And the politically active amongst that group have always understood it was a long game.
But it seems that, hiccups aside, the ref is looking at his watch...
[...] Read OurKingdom [...]
Even after 6 months the aversion to discussing constitutional future is thawing incredibly quickly. I think Salmond has always been playing the long game and anyone who has lived in Scotland for the last ten years or more can feel that the mood and attitude has changed forever, and it certainly isn’t in the direction of the unionists.
The word independence is mentioned every day in the media and already its becoming a term of daily use and there one become used to it. The acceptance of the SNP and the inevitability of independence is seeping into the wider Scottish society.
I was lucky enough to stay in Estonia when I lived in Russia for a year and it, independence, was a subject I brought up with my hosts many times. I asked about how they felt about independence for Estonia in the 70s and 80s, and they would have branded themselves ‘casual’ unionists (Soviet Unionists) but when the push for independence came they weren’t overly supportive but certainly didn’t do anything about it. They admit that they fell for the Soviet aggressive scaremongering, concede that Estonia is a much better place and that independence makes sense.
I think this has many parallels in Scotland. I think there many people who accept the union, that’s just the way it is, but certainly wouldn’t rush to defend it and would be just as happy in an independent state. I think some people literally don’t care. When it comes down to who would actually campaign or be compelled to turn out to vote when the referendum actually happens is, i think, where unionists are in trouble.
I firmly believe there are more committed independistas than unionists in Scotland. i.e. people who see it central to their political beliefs. I think many people in Scotland, after mulling it over, having previously never ever thought about it, would agree with independence, some wouldn’t. This is because most arguments against independence in 21st century Europe don’t make sense and that is why Westminster does not want a referendum. Not because they think they would lose it, but because they don’t want mass numbers of people having to seriously think about it, as when the second referendum came around that is when the proverbial would hit the fan.
It is not so much a matter of "time telling" as time consolidating. Does anyone really think that the clock will go backwards and that Scotland will willingly return to the UK fold, Britain is now made up of England and Wales with the latter on course to follow the same independence route as Scotland, when all is settled and notwithstanding the EU, Britain will disappear completely and England will re-emerge as a sovereign country, that is not to say that all the above countries will not remain in the Commonwealth which would solve the problem of what to do with the Monarchy.
Ten years of an incompetent cabal in Westminster insisting that I, as an Englishman, am denied my English identity, my country England, English home rule and equality with "fellow Brits in healthcare and many other human rights, have convinced me that the future of my people lies outside the United Kingdom and European Union.
Indeed the English have no future as a people within the United Kingdom and European Union.
The dangers of a 'long game' is that the social forces that are undermining Britishness will start to affect Scottishness as well (if they haven't already).
One could just as easily state that the Internet makes it easier to ignore the Scottish media entirely and focus entirely on one's personal interests. For some people, that will be nationalism, but for most people it won't be.
"the social forces that are undermining Britishness will start to affect Scottishness as well "
Britishness has been undermined by loss of empire, and status as an independent world power (rather than American friend). Scottishness has not been undermined by these forces.
I meant stuff like the Intenet. The average Scottish person spends 3 hours a day online, how much of that time is spent in ways which adds to their identification with Scotland?
While the SNP is still agitating for a Scottish Six and all the rest of it, time is marching on.
Actually, the Internet is helping Scottish identity, and undermining British identity. IMHO. Thanks to providing information about stuff that the London media refuses to report.
"While the SNP is still agitating for a Scottish Six and all the rest of it, time is marching on."
I want a Scottish Channel Six, not just a news programme. Scotland should have its own TV channel - no excuse in the digital age, particularly when the BBC is producing plenty of channels which are far more useless.
Hamish, in the first comment hits the nail on the head ... there is no coherent rational arguement being given for the union.
Hotspur says, "... [brown] will return victorious to Scotland." - yet he'll be thoroughly stoned for his ineptitude, he seems to be despised throughout the British Isles given his inability to govern effevtively, there is more spin attached to this man than his predecessor - let's not forget he was held up as an architect of New Labour.
Anax says, "... I meant stuff like the Intenet.". From my point of view the internet has been incredibly liberating. It is far easier now to asert your national identity through 'this' medium and find material to identify with via the internet. Prior to the internet it may be arguable that national identity could be more easily subsumed or circumvented through editorial licence given limited media - these restrictions have been lifted ... as they say knowledge is power, if I want to know something I can look it up.
Interesting points about the Internet.
I think I would have been unable to find a discussion like this one prior to the Internet, largely down to me not knowing where to look for it.
Whilst I tend to agree with Anax - in the sense that you can find common cause with folk from all around the world - I do think it has also been good for localised debates too.
Personally, to cliché, I think the Internet probably encourages both the local and the global.
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