An Uncertain Future by Chris Abbott, ORG

Andrew Blick reviews An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change by Chris Abbott, ORG.

This report recommends a preventative security policy in the face of climate change.

The Oxford Research Group (ORG) report, An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change, investigates a dimension of climate change which receives relatively little attention. What would be the implications for global and domestic security and associated policy? As the report notes the physical effects of climate change such as rising temperature and sea levels and altered weather patterns will have 'knock-on socio-economic impacts' such as loss of infrastructure, resource scarcity and the mass displacement of people. There will be consequent demands for greater border security, changes in rates and types of crime, new legislation to police and natural disasters to respond to. The problems will manifest themselves not only 'out there' in the developing world, but 'here' at home.

Like other ORG products, this work combines a strong research base with a definite political viewpoint. It concludes that if security policy simply involves reaching for the usual remedies - maintaining the status quo and controlling security - it will fail. The solution proposed is to focus on 'preventative rather than reactive strategies' and adopt a 'cooperative and sustainable' approach to global security. In terms of specifics, the report recommends building more natural disaster protection measures such as flood defences; government support for renewables; international agreement on the status of environmental refugees; and conflict prevention and aid programmes to take account of climate change. All of these ideas are laudable. From the democratic perspective, legislatures here in the UK and elsewhere should also urgently develop mechanisms to ensure that in the event of environmental emergencies they are equipped to hold the executive to account for its actions. Such has not been the case during times of war or threats from terrorism. A democratic shortfall of this nature during a sustained climate crisis would be unacceptable.

(An Uncertain Future, Jan. 2008, 20pp)