SNP

The world of politics and history sometimes throws up by complete accident fascinating and revealing coincidences. So it proved on the 70th anniversary of Britain and France reluctantly declaring war on Nazi Germany after Hitler had taken the decision two days previously to unleash his war machine on Poland. On such a day laden with history the SNP administration fired the first official shots in the referendum on Scottish independence. Alex Salmond, First Minister, committed his administration to bring forward a bill to hold a referendum in the next year.

More than the date of September 3rd connects these two separate events for they tell us something profound about the nature of Britain, what it became, the state it is currently in and what fate awaits it in the near-future.

Mike Small (Fife, Bella Caledonia): What's a more motivating force, fear or hope? Across the pond Obama has inspired a generation, re-inspired another and put 9 million people on the electoral register. Here a halving of the Labour Partys majority has been represented as a historic victory. Here it was politics as usual, and bitter negative politics at that. Labour have successfuly played on peoples fears of economic collapse. But can Britain be held together by fear? Where is a credible positive agenda emerging from London? It's not going to be the Olympics or the sight of a UK football team emerging at Hampden comprising 11 Englishmen.

There is no doubt that Labour ran a very successful campaign, but that's not why they won. The SNP ran a great campaign but chose a candidate that made them the incumbent (Peter Grant is the Head of the SNP Council), but that's not why they lost.

There are three reasons why Labour won.

Mike Small (Fife, Bella Caledonia): Last week's lost cause is this week's cause celebre. Mr Bean - virtually laughed out of office two weeks ago - is this week's giant of fiscal rectitude bestriding the world stage like a colossus of economic management. Inconvenient truths like the role New Labour played in the deregulation of goods and services, the 'liberation' of the Bank of England or support for the policy of basing your economy on spiralling housing prices, are swept aside in the glib wave of back-slapping that is sweeping the political commentariat.

The media is fickle, not feral.

Gleefully Jim Murphy the new Scottish Secretary mocks the SNP with reference to the 'arc of insolvency', a reference to the 'arc of prosperity' that the SNP have used to describe Iceland, Ireland and Norway. The problem with Labour's new found chutzpah is that they are treading on thin ice. The markets are faltering, the terrain unpredictable. Just as the SNP's original triumvirate of Ireland, Iceland and Norway was a too-convenient set, it equally fails as an example of why Scotland must be held to the Union. Norway is doing fine in the financial crisis, Iceland is not. The scale and impact of crisis has little or nothing to do with the size and constitutional make-up of the country involved.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Scottish Labour Party will have a new leader by this weekend. The Scotsman suggests that Wendy Alexander's successor could quickly find themselves at odds with Westminster:

In London, the government is trying to keep down wage inflation and will not provide any more money for public-sector wages.

In Scotland, the party is going through a leadership campaign where two of the candidates have been backed by unions involved in the strike action.

What this means is that, when Labour in Scotland does get its new leader this weekend, the party here will almost certainly be in favour of strike action while the party in England is not.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Scotsman brings us news that the SNP is preparing to do a deal with the Liberal Democrats to abolish the council tax in Scotland.

As the SNP is running the Scottish Government as a minority administration, it needs the support of one of the other main parties to get its plans through. The Lib Dems support the principle of a local income tax, but are adamant that it must be set locally, by individual councils, rather than by the Scottish Government at 3p in the pound.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): In today's Sunday Herald, former Labour Scottish Finance Minister Tom McCabe delivers a brutally frank assessment of Labour's diminished place in Scotland's political landscape, and one of the starkest calls yet for the Scottish Party to set its own agenda:

So how can Scottish Labour respond? First, with a leader who is seen to be in charge, taking responsibility and being prepared to say and do what is best for Scots, no matter who it might upset.

Tom Griffin (London, OK):In the wake of the Glasgow East by-election, commentators such as Iain MacWhirter, Peter Oborne and Simon Jenkins, have been examining the prospect of Scottish independence with increasing seriousness.

The Constitution Unit's Professor Robert Hazell provides a useful counterpoint over at Comment is Free. He suggests that there are four major obstacles the SNP must overcome to achieve its goal.

1. Winning a vote in the Scottish Parliament authorising a referendum.
2. Winning a referendum to authorise independence negotiations.
3. Negotiating terms with the British Government and with the European Union.
4. Winning a second referendum on the agreed terms.

The final hurdle is Hazell's most distinctive contribution, as Guy Aitchison noted back in May, and may be the most contentious. Some might equate insisting on a second referendum with a eurocrat-style refusal to accept the result of the first.

Such tactics look increasingly unlikely to save the Lisbon Treaty, and they would not necessarily save the union.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): Former Europe Minister Denis McShane made a particularly interesting contribution to the post-mortem on Glasgow East in the Sunday Telegraph yesterday:

"After Glasgow," he wrote, "Labour has to do more than debate its leadership and see off excited calls by union leaders for challenges to Gordon Brown. Instead the party has to confront an existential problem of its own making: the question of England."

Tom Griffin (London, The Green Ribbon): The SNP has tonight won the Glasgow East by-election by the narrowest of margins, 365 votes, following a recount.

Underlying the narrow victory, however, was a huge swing of 22.54 per cent, which according to to Professor John Curtice would leave Labour with only 1 MP if it were projected across Scotland. This is not unique in by-election terms, but what is unprecedented is that was achieved by a party that is itself an incumbent Government.

Curtice suggested that the result confirms the SNP's position as the major challenger to Labour in Scotland at the next general election.

Although the Conservatives took third place ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who continued their recent run of poor by-election results, the Tory share of the vote actually fell by one per cent.

Tom Griffin (London, The Green Ribbon):Today is the final day of campaigning in the Glasgow East by-election. Initial speculation about a Labour meltdown that could spell the end for Gordon Brown has largely died away, but Alex Salmond has refused to back away from predictions that the vote would be a 'political earthquake'.

Tom Griffin (London, The Green Ribbon): Labour finally selected its candidate for the Glasgow East by-election last night, former Holyrood Minister Margaret Curran

Conservatives should be hoping that Curran succeeds in holding off the SNP, according to former Telegraph leader writer Richard Ehrman. 

Tom Griffin (London, The Green Ribbon): Back in March I asked whether Labour is losing support among Scottish Catholics, the same question that politicalbetting.com has been considering today in an interesting thread on the Glasgow East by-election.

Mike Small (Fife, Bella Caledonia): Scottish Labour seem to have missed something pretty key: the SNP are now the Scottish Government. This level of denial and incompetence has led them to come up with a suicidal policy switch - and Wendy Alexander and co. are now backing a referendum on independence. But the Scottish Government will decide the term, timing and process of the now inevitable referendum vote, whatever Labour thinks.

Tom Griffin (London, The Green Ribbon): At yesterday's PMQs, Gordon Brown distanced himself from Wendy Alexander's call for an early referendum on Scottish independence:

"The Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, and the Labour Party have joined together in setting up the Calman Review, the commission on devolution," he said. "I hope we can make progress in that commission, and we will review the progress before making any further decisions."

Normal Mouth (Rhondda, blogger): Alex Salmond has been in the USA this week quoting Thomas Jefferson. Fortunately for English sensibilities he did not invoke the great man’s suggestion that “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” but chose instead the rather more anodyne “we are a people capable of self-government, and worthy of it.”

Tom Griffin (London, The Green Ribbon): In a marked contrast to the political battle in Scotland, Labour and the nationalists are in Government together in Wales. Yet it seems the path to further devolution may not be running any smoother as a result.

Wales on Sunday challenged Plaid Cymru leader Ieuan Wyn Jones on the issue at this weekend's party conference:

Tom Griffin (London, The Green Ribbon) The Telegraph's Damian Thompson has a theory about why Gordon Brown is considering ditching the Act of Settlement.

Tom Griffin (London, The Green Ribbon): Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander made a bold bid to take back the Scottish constitutional agenda on Sunday with the launch of her policy document, Change is What We Do:

OurKingdom: The National Centre for Social Research has just issued its new British Social Attitudes Report. This is taken from its 13 page pdf summary press release.

Only 13% of people born and living in England, and 3% of people born and living in Scotland, describe themselves as ‘only’ or ‘mainly’ British. Meanwhile, nearly half of those born and living in England say that they are ‘equally English and British’, and only one in five born and living in Scotland describe themselves as ‘equally Scottish and British’.

Gavin Yates (Edinburgh, GYMedia): New research from the Scottish Centre for Social Research  has found that only 23 per cent of Scots are in favour of independence. The study asked almost 1,300 people their views on Scotland's constitutional future and is the most comprehensive study since the SNP's victory back in May.However, over 50 per cent of those questioned between May and August this year said that they wanted a more powers for Holyrood. Opposition politicians used the study to kick the new Scottish Government but it's more likely now that we'll see a ‘preferendum' on increase powers for Scotland later in the parliamentary term than a referendum on full independence.