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Once started


Posts: 20
Joined: 2004-05-03
It is interesting to find that half of American people still support Mr Bush’s war while as polls show, the majority in other countries seems to support Mr Kerry. Odd contrast. Where does the difference come from? There could be two objective reasons. One is that once the war started, you cannot simply quit. In other words, while America is the player, the rest are arbiters. Mr Bush accused Mr. Kerry of "proposing policies and doctrines that would weaken America and make the world more dangerous." His major point is to avoid to discuss the righteousness of the Iraq war, but that he cannot simply quit the war even if the prospect is not bright. He must win and make Iraq a prosperous country, however costly. Outside US, his argument will not be supported as in the US, compared with Mr Kerry’s argument that there is no firm evidence of a link between Mr. Hussein and Al Qaeda, or of an imminent threat of attacks by nuclear or chemical weapons. That is, outside US, what matters more is the righteousness of the war. Another is that the American people are too seriously afraid of terrorism. Outside US, the people tend to take American arguments as hysterical or opportunistic. It is absurd to believe that attacking a troublous country eliminates fanatics. A country does not start a war "to improve the world." We seek GOOD reasons like the support of Al Qaeda or imminent attacks by nuclear or chemical weapons to start a war. Mr Bush probably knew that. That is why he tried to persuade the US and the world before he started the war. However, he and the US people were probably too hysterical to calmly analyze Hussein's Iraq as compared with for example Kim's North Korea. The argument reminds me of the one the US adopted when it took over Hawaii kingdom. Preemptive war against the bloodthirsty empress-nympho. Tactical argument persuasive only for Americans (or whites). Anyway, once the war started, any country cannot simply quit and has nothing else to continue. Mr Bush is on the defensive but is candidly explaining the situation. Do as you like it, America. No other country can effectively rise against. Eliminating dispensable will do no harm. Kill them preemptively with "religious faith" (stubbornly). Bright future may result, or get out of Iraq slyly. In best cases, only less than 0.2% of the Iraqi population will be eliminated before the war ends. (Vietnam lost 2% of the population. Japan and China lost 2% and 3% of population, respectively, in WWII.)



Posts: 92
Joined: 2003-07-20
Re: Once started
The reason this American continues to support Bush is that he is doing the right thing. Iraq had clear links to a number of terrorist organizations over the past twenty years, including HAMAS, PFLP, PFP, PKK, Abu Nidal Organization, and four or five others. The idea that Al Qaeda was somehow left out of this mix is, on its face, difficult to swallow. In addition, there is good evidence that Iraq and al Qaeda were working together. Please refer to my post here for a chronology: http://www.opendemocracy.com/forums/thread.jspa?forumID=157&threadID=43078&start=45&tstart=0 It is the seventh post from the top, after a couple of long posts. Saddam was subverting funds from the oil for food program, had a tremendous procurement effort under way, and had breached most of the terms of the UN resolution ending hostilities from 1991. Bush made it very clear after September 11 that the U.S. would take out terrorists and state sponsors. There can be no question that Saddam was a state sponsor of terrorism.



Posts: 1220
Joined: 2003-10-13
Re: Once started
KillForFreedom, To use your own expression "there can be no question about it" that Israel is applying terrorist tactics but the difference is that they are using their soldiers to do it. When will you wake up to the fact that it takes two to tango. Palestinians have been cheated for decades and the US has been complicit in this crime.Even a worm can turn. The blindness you exhibit shows that your kind will never learn from history. You cannot supress a people indefinitely without expecting consequences. As for Saddam supporting terror, he was merely following the US example, which has supported right wing militias in Central America, which killed thousands of poor peasants. All this in the name of supporting 'democracy'. There are none so blind as the blind. Bush is the blindest of them all because he is just a pawn in the neoconservative game led by Cheney. The US will never be safe until it realizes that it cannot defeat popular movements that arise through political and social injustice. Terrorism is but another weapon that the militarily inferior use. To always regard it as having no proper cause and to be wanton, is to invite more of it. So go ahead and vote Bush and you will assuredly get more than you bargain for. There is a school of thought in Europe that would welcome a Bush victory because it believes that Bush will launch even more aggressive military actions and that these will eventually result in a heavy defeat, before it will get the message, just as in Vietnam. There they were not militarily defeated, their people just got tired of seeing innocent people killed to no purpose and they withdrew with their tails between their legsd, after losing fifty thousand men. The 'threat' that Vietnam was percived to pose, was no threat at all.Likewise Iraq. Message was edited by: brolly2_1 Message was edited by: brolly2_1



Posts: 111
Joined: 2003-09-13
Re: Once started
Brolly, Were you a supporter of the Soviet supported communist insurgencies in Central America? Were the communists bastions of social and political justice? US policy was correct in Central America, particularly in Nicaragua. After the fighting was over, they did have an election, and it turned out the US was right. The people overwhelmingly rejected the communists.



Posts: 1220
Joined: 2003-10-13
Re: Once started
KillFor Freedom, On almost every count you are wrong. There is nothing in your rhetoric that gives me any cause to change my views and we have gone over the same old ground ad nauseum. I can only think that you have a lot of spare time on your hands, as you have never said anything that doesn't come straight out of the neocon's handbook, and one can read it there in more ideological purity and detail. Sufficient for me to quote Colin Powell, who referred privately to the neocons as "----ing crazies",at a meeting with Jack Straw.That about sums you and them up!



Posts: 92
Joined: 2003-07-20
Re: Once started
"On almost every count you are wrong. There is nothing in your rhetoric that gives me any cause to change my views and we have gone over the same old ground ad nauseum." No surprise here! "I can only think that you have a lot of spare time on your hands" You could say that, as I am more or less retired. I put in my time and now my time is my own. "as you have never said anything that doesn't come straight out of the neocon's handbook, and one can read it there in more ideological purity and detail." In foreign policy my beliefs are largely neocon-friendly. Can't say the same for social issues, however. "Sufficient for me to quote Colin Powell, who referred privately to the neocons as "----ing crazies",at a meeting with Jack Straw. That about sums you and them up!" Surely a man (an assumption) of your erudition can do better than this simplistic personal attack. Have you no substantive rebuttal? If you do, try to stick to events and circumstances post-1989, as you appear to have supported the expansion of communist influence prior to Reagan's victory.



Posts: 1220
Joined: 2003-10-13
Re: Once started
KillForFreedom, I have never supported Communist expansion because I have no faith in any single ideology. I prefer to look for the historical context in which an ideology is fashioned and to understand its origins. I regard the Neoconservative ideology from the same perspective and reject it as being dangerous to all, as in the way you feel about Communism. As for the personal remarks, I will confess that I sometimes go over the top in this direction.



Posts: 20
Joined: 2004-05-03
Re: Once started
KillForFreedom The discussions proceed very fast, and I am responding to your first response "post 107." My discussion was that the world, outside the US, rejects Mr Bush's argument even though half of Americans support Mr Bush. You argument is that Iraq had something to do with terrorist groups, and the US invasion of Iraq is a good thing to do. Mr Bush told the world that he attacks Hussein because he had connection with al Qaeda and can attack the US (or Israel?) by nuclear weapons in 45 min. I understand that both were officially denied by the US investigators. You refer to HAMAS, PFLP, PFP, PKK, Abu Nidal Organization. Were those groups imminent threats to the US like al Qaeda that attacked New York? Are they now significantly weaker (and, is the world safer) because the financial aide from Iraq stopped? [By the way, why are all terrorists against the US? There could be some that are against Saddam.] You claim that "Saddam was a state sponsor of terrorism." Was he such a big man? What he did was to invade a small neighboring country, and not more than that (disregarding the conflicts before the gulf war). Saddam was not a fine man, but Iraq was not a serious threat to the US (as to waste hundreds of millions of dollars in the war). Your argument is not convincing. I (and the people of the world) believe that the US has not right to militarily attack ANY country unless the country poses an imminent threat to the US or to the world (as represented bu the UN). What America can argue is only that once started it cannot be stopped. Just as an airplane cannot land on the ocean. Do continue until you are finally tired and want to walk away.



Posts: 92
Joined: 2003-07-20
Re: Once started
"My discussion was that the world, outside the US, rejects Mr Bush's argument even though half of Americans support Mr Bush. You argument is that Iraq had something to do with terrorist groups, and the US invasion of Iraq is a good thing to do." Well, almost. My argument is that Saddam was a sponsor of global terror, and I think many or most would agree, as this is easy to demonstrate even when restricted to the liberal press. It follows logically, that it is tough to believe he selectively excluded al Qaeda from the group of international terrorists he sponsored, and further (from my chronology post) there is a growing body of evidence that he had explicit ties to al Qaeda over the past decade as well. Bush had declared war on global terror and its sponsors, and Iraq was clearly in the latter group. I recognized that popular European opinion does not agree with this. "Mr Bush told the world that he attacks Hussein because he had connection with al Qaeda and can attack the US (or Israel?) by nuclear weapons in 45 min. I understand that both were officially denied by the US investigators.: Again, sort of. Bush said he would attack Hussein because he was: i) in breach of most of the conditions of the cessation of hostilities from 1991, which Hussein signed, ii) he was known to have had stockpiles of chem and bio weapons, as determined by UNMOVIC in the mid-90s, and was actively thwarting UN inspection, iii) he was clearly a sponsor of global terror, and in combination with i) and ii) above, was a 'clear and present danger' to U.S. security. I believe the evidence supports this reasoning, and the resulting invasion. "You refer to HAMAS, PFLP, PFP, PKK, Abu Nidal Organization. Were those groups imminent threats to the US like al Qaeda that attacked New York?" No, not so far. Al Qaeda, however, was obviously such a threat. Al Qaeda was demonstrably working with elements of Iraqi intelligence and industry to develop chem- and bio-weapons. "Are they now significantly weaker (and, is the world safer) because the financial aide from Iraq stopped?: Yes, and they are on notice that the strongest military and economic force on the globe is out destroy them. "By the way, why are all terrorists against the US? There could be some that are against Saddam." Indeed, al Qaeda was against Saddam until the early 1990s, when a cessation of hostilities was agreed upon. This was included even in the 9-11 Commission report, which was otherwise blinkered unto irrelevance. "You claim that "Saddam was a state sponsor of terrorism." Was he such a big man?" Any state sponsor of terrorism should be destroyed. Unfortuantely many are much more powerful than the Taliban and Hussein, and will therefore require a great deal more finesse. Also, many have complexities that require careful consideration, such as Iran, which is an odd amalgam of democracy and theocracy. "What he did was to invade a small neighboring country, and not more than that (disregarding the conflicts before the gulf war). Saddam was not a fine man, but Iraq was not a serious threat to the US (as to waste hundreds of millions of dollars in the war)." This is where I disagree with the European popular sentiment. Saddam had only to deliver a relatively small quantity of a binary nerve agent such as VX, or a biologically active substance such as smallpox into the hands of one of his pet terror groups, and the damage to the U.S., Israel or Europe would have been immense in human and economic terms. "Your argument is not convincing. I (and the people of the world) believe that the US has not right to militarily attack ANY country unless the country poses an imminent threat to the US or to the world (as represented bu the UN)." I feel that Iraq was a potent and imminent threat, as laid out above. Further, Hussein had territorial ambitions and was a genocidal tyrant within his own country, much like Milosevic. (As an aside, did you disagree with the U.S. involvement in the Balkans?) "What America can argue is only that once started it cannot be stopped." This is a tough argument. We could walk away. In fact, I believe there would be some merit to an isolationist approach. Perhaps we are wrong, and radical Islam is not such great threat. And perhaps it would be better to seal the borders and allow the outside world to take the brunt if we are correct. I find it very difficult to argue with this approach. It is disturbing, however, that the chief proponent of this isolationism is Pat Buchanan, a rather unsavory character in my book. KFF



Posts: 20
Joined: 2004-05-03
Re: Once started
KillForFreedom I find your argument coherent and easy to follow. Thank you. I have some arguments. >My argument is that Saddam was a sponsor of global terror, and I think many or most would agree.... As I understand, Saddam had such enemies as Iran, Kuwait, and Israel. Maybe some others. The US could be one of the enemies, but it is a different matter if he considered of attacking the US by force. If he had chemical or nuclear weapons, they were probably meant to attack neighboring countries or as deterrent force. What types of terrorist organizations would he help? Probably local groups. His connection with al Qaeda is officially denied by the US. As I understand, many terrorist groups act locally, and al Qaeda is an exception. Was Saddam really a sponsor of global terror? (By the way, I think that Saddam, or any other country, has a right to prepare for the war against Israel. Just like Pakistan and India.) >Bush said he would attack Hussein because he was: i) in breach of most of the conditions of the cessation of hostilities from 1991, which Hussein signed, ii) he was known to have had stockpiles of chem and bio weapons, as determined by UNMOVIC in the mid-90s, and was actively thwarting UN inspection, iii) he was clearly a sponsor of global terror, and in combination with i) and ii) above, was a 'clear and present danger' to U.S. security. I believe the evidence supports this reasoning, and the resulting invasion. I understand that it is recently decided that Hussein did not have "stockpiles of chem and bio weapons" nor nuclear weapons when the war began last year. It is suspected that he just wanted to leave the matter ambiguous as an effective means of deterrent force. We all now know that he was not an imminent threat when the war broke out. We could very probably contain him by way of UN watchdog groups and economic sanction. Much less expensively. With the fuss in the UN just before the war in mind, it is now clear that Mr Bush was too nervous or too one-sided about assessing the danger of Hussein. A novice-policeman or a novice-judiciary, or cowboy-style decision of a mindless sheriff pursuing a wanted man. Not a professional. >Any state sponsor of terrorism should be destroyed. Unfortuantely many are much more powerful than the Taliban and Hussein, and will therefore require a great deal more finesse. Also, many have complexities that require careful consideration, such as Iran, which is an odd amalgam of democracy and theocracy. Probably, this part will be the core of your argument. I do not agree. I agree that Saddam and Kim should be removed, but we must discuss how to do it. The US probably wanted to destroy the USSR, but did not do so, and the result was the self-destruction of USSR. We could adopt a similar approach also against other countries like Iraq. This is what the European countries suggested. That is why the majority of the world including Europe and Asia likes Kerry better than Bush. It is a bad habit of the US to take lightly of small or weak countries. Small countries must take time to change socially, and the advanced countries cannot change them by speed-before-quality type of interventions. Is not the Iraq war an example of unsuccessful intervention? (We must wait, yes, but...) By the way, as I understand, Iran is not a threat to the world. I do not understand why Mr Bush included Iran as a member of the evil axis. >Saddam had only to deliver a relatively small quantity of a binary nerve agent such as VX, or a biologically active substance such as smallpox into the hands of one of his pet terror groups, and the damage to the U.S., Israel or Europe would have been immense in human and economic terms. You are discussing POSSIBILITY. I do not think he had an intention of attacking the US by VX. Is not it a case of overreaction in self-defense? If you want to invade a country, you must have a solid evidence.



Posts: 92
Joined: 2003-07-20
Re: Once started
KappNets, I appreciate your ability to discuss these issues without rancor. It is a sign of your objectivity, which seems all too rare these days. "As I understand, Saddam had such enemies as Iran, Kuwait, and Israel. Maybe some others. The US could be one of the enemies, but it is a different matter if he considered of attacking the US by force. If he had chemical or nuclear weapons, they were probably meant to attack neighboring countries or as deterrent force." Indeed, this is the conclusion reached by the Duelfer report. According to what I have read so far (the full text has not yet been released to the public) the conclusions as to Hussein's intent for his weapons programs derive primarily from Hussein's statements under interrogation. Saddam is clearly a practiced statesman, and has many times shown his duplicity. I believe he has everything to gain by undermining the credibility of the Bush doctrine, and that this explains his statements. You said the US "could" be one of these enemies. I can demonstrate that America WAS one of these enemies, based on Saddam's actions rather than what he has said. According to the testimony of Laurie Mylroie before the 9-11 commission, when Iraqi forces controlled Kuwait, the identification papers for Ramzi Youssef were doctored to establish his identity as Kuwaiti. Youssef was actually from Baluchistan, but this 'legend' was manufactured along with several others to facilitate the 1993 World Trade Center attack. Further, in 2000 Ahmed Hikmat Shakir, an officer in the Fedayeen Saddam, met with Al Qaeda personnel in Kuala Lumpur for September 11 planning. Additional evidence that Saddam considered the US an enemy includes the failed 1993 assassination attempt on George Bush senior, and the failed 1999 attempt to bomb the offices of Radio Free Europe in Prague (which is operated by the US). "What types of terrorist organizations would he help? Probably local groups." He has demonstrably assisted a wide variety of terror groups including the PLO, HAMAS, PFLP, PKK, Abu Nidal Orgainzation and others. These are primarily regionally focused groups, on that we can agree. "His connection with al Qaeda is officially denied by the US." It is denied by the 9-11 commission, which was a political/partisan fig leaf, the 2004 equivalent of the Warren Commission, which covered up the conspiracy to assassinate President Kennedy. One need look no further than the roster of the 9-11 commission to see this. Democratic partisans Richard Ben Veniste and Jamie Gorelick were very clearly placed on the commission to shift blame to the Bush administration, and to reinforce the idea that there was no link to al Qaeda. I heavily discount their findings with respect to the origins and financing of the attacks. "As I understand, many terrorist groups act locally, and al Qaeda is an exception. Was Saddam really a sponsor of global terror?" This is an interesting point. Much of Saddam's terror support prior to al Qaeda was regional in nature. His support for al Qaeda was almost certainly targeting the US alone. "I understand that it is recently decided that Hussein did not have "stockpiles of chem and bio weapons" nor nuclear weapons when the war began last year." I believe the Duelfer report concluded that at the time of the US invasion, Saddam had no significant stockpiles of CBNR weapons. This is not surprising, actually. I believe that Hussein had SOME quantities of chemical and biological weapons before the war began. (In fact the inspection teams did find limited numbers of chemical gas artillery shells, as well as UAVs with aerosolization capability.) He may not have had the immense stockpiles that he possessed in the mid-1990s, though it is established fact, based on the reports of the UNMOVIC inspectors, that he did have such stockpiles after the first Iraq war was concluded. I think it is accurate to say that the UN inspectors succeded in limiting his ability to maintain these stockpiles, but only until they were forced out of Iraq in 1998. Hussein had three years with no inspections to rebuild his CBNR programs unfettered. The resumption of inspections in the year or so before the second invasion may have again placed limits on these programs. But these inspections were hindered in every possible way by the Iraqis. This was a game of cat and mouse rather than open cooperation, and this indicates that Saddam had some amount of CBNRs that he was hiding. What other conclusion could one reach when the Iraqi government was emptying warehouses and removing top soil to front-run the UN teams? In my opinion, it is irrelevant whether he had large stockpiles or only small amounts, because it would only take a very small amount of binary nerve agent or biological material to make Septmber 11th seem like a modest preview. "It is suspected that he just wanted to leave the matter ambiguous as an effective means of deterrent force." This is possible, but does not diminish the rationale of the Bush administration in its course of action. "We all now know that he was not an imminent threat when the war broke out." I disagree. As I said above, even a small amount of CBNR weapons delivered to al Qaeda or other group with global reach (which Iraqi intelligence could and did facilitate) would present a grave and imminent threat. "We could very probably contain him by way of UN watchdog groups and economic sanction. Much less expensively." Probably we could, I agree with this. But probably is not good enough for most Americans that I know, not after September 11. Better to err on the side of caution, regardless of the popularity of the Bush approach with the international community. Despite popular opinion (and the distortive statements of candidate Kerry) most US allies are in full support of US actions against al Qaeda to this day. "With the fuss in the UN just before the war in mind, it is now clear that Mr Bush was too nervous or too one-sided about assessing the danger of Hussein. A novice-policeman or a novice-judiciary, or cowboy-style decision of a mindless sheriff pursuing a wanted man. Not a professional." This is clearly the consensus of popular opinion in Europe, though I dispute the wisdom of such a conclusion. How quickly the popular consensus has forgotten the consensus that existed prior to the invasion. I believe it is dishonest to fault the Bush administration, after the fact, for 'selling the war' based on WMD intelligence. The intelligence services of Britain, Spain, Australia, Germany, Egypt, Israel, Czech Republic and Russia all concurred at the time. So did the Senate intelligence committee. So did John Kerry. The following is taken from Kerry's October 9, 2002 speech on the floor of the U.S. Senate: "When I vote to give the President of the United States the authority to use force, if necessary, to disarm Saddam Hussein, it is because I believe that a deadly arsenal of weapons of mass destruction in his hands is a threat, and a grave threat, to our security and that of our allies in the Persian Gulf region." For Kerry and others to now say that Bush misled us based on this same intelligence is inaccurate and unfair. It also leads to serious questions about Kerry's judgment. This potential threat, and the position we find ourselves in today, are of primary importance to U.S. (and European) security. Political gamesmanship on this issue is dangerous and irresponsible. Also keep in mind that the UN Security Council is a highly politicized organization. One conclusion of the Duelfer report that you have not mentioned is that France and Russia had an ulterior motive for denying military force under a UN mandate--the oil for food vouchers. In addition both countries were holding billions of dollars in Iraqi debt that is unlikely to be paid in full, or at all, now that Iraq requires reconstruction. Further, France especially has a long history of using its influence in Europe and before the UN to offset US hegemony. It is awfully simplistic to say that Bush failed to gain UN backing for the invasion. Perhaps is is more accurate to say that UN, because of the motives of several security council member, failed to support the correct policy. "I agree that Saddam and Kim should be removed, but we must discuss how to do it. The US probably wanted to destroy the USSR, but did not do so, and the result was the self-destruction of USSR." Which was forced by long and tenacious US policy, despite rampant popular objections. We were all very fortunate that Reagan chose to ignore these objections and withstand the unpopularity of his choices. "We could adopt a similar approach also against other countries like Iraq." This, to me, is the key area of disagreement. With the Soviets, we had the benefit of time, since the Soviet aggressor had to rely on Cold War tactics. Iraq was different precisely because he could (and did) attack the US with complete deniability. We did not have the time to wait him out any further. And by the way, he was given twelve years to come around, during which time he violated the majority of the agreement (1441) that ended the 1991 hostilities. "This is what the European countries suggested. That is why the majority of the world including Europe and Asia likes Kerry better than Bush." No doubt. But as I have stated, Europe had its own motives, the last of which was protecting the security of its citizens and those of the US. "It is a bad habit of the US to take lightly of small or weak countries." I could not agree with you more on this point, and I fault the US administrations of the past twenty five years for this. Not very smart at all. "Small countries must take time to change socially, and the advanced countries cannot change them by speed-before-quality type of interventions. Is not the Iraq war an example of unsuccessful intervention? (We must wait, yes, but...)" Iraq was highly unlikely to change without outside intervention. The Iraq intervention has been both successful and unsuccesful to date. As you say, time will tell if Iraq can follow the model of El Salvador and Afghanistan. We should all hope that the elections work out as the Bush adminstration has planned. The alternative is dreadful to imagine. "By the way, as I understand, Iran is not a threat to the world. I do not understand why Mr Bush included Iran as a member of the evil axis." I understand why he included them, as Iran is now the primary sponsor of global terror. However, I believe this was a mistake. As I said in my previous post, Iran is a special case, being a hybrid theocracy and democratic republic. I believe freedom will evolve further in Iran of its own volition, as the theocracy has failed to provide the basics of a decent society for its citizens. Also, it was an odd choice to include in the Axis of Evil because we allied with Iran for the invasion of Afghanistan. "You are discussing POSSIBILITY. I do not think he had an intention of attacking the US by VX. Is not it a case of overreaction in self-defense? If you want to invade a country, you must have a solid evidence." Yes, I am discussing possibility. A possibility too horrible to leave alone. I think Saddam had an intention of CONTINUING to attack the US, and that highly portable systems such as chem- or bio-weapons were a very good choice for him. He would have maintained deniability and yet had a major strategic impact if he was successful in delivering a WMD attack through the vehicle of al Qaeda or other terrorist network. I believe Bush had solid evidence, starting in the early 1990s and carrying on throughout that decade, that Iraq intended to, and did attack the US at home and abroad in collaboration with al Qaeda.



Posts: 625
Joined: 2003-02-15
Re: Once started
kff, Re; yours of 12-Oct-2004 05:35: Skillfully put, but so shot full of holes it quite exceeds my patience, not to mention available time, to deal with them all – at least for the moment. But there is one matter I would invite you to comment on: So where are these quantities now? What do you suppose their fate to have been? Aren’t you in the least bit worried? Since Saddam, by your understandings, had these weapons for quite some time, and, again by your understandings, had both motive and opportunity, why did we not see an attack? Can you maintain he had less motive (or even opportunity in a chaotic Iraq) after our invasion?



Posts: 92
Joined: 2003-07-20
Re: Once started
"Skillfully put, but so shot full of holes it quite exceeds my patience," This is unfortunate, but not unusual. "But there is one matter I would invite you to comment on: So where are these quantities now? What do you suppose their fate to have been? Aren’t you in the least bit worried?" No, not in the least. Bush may have relied on incomplete or faulty intelligence when he told us that Iraq had immense stockpiles, but Bush could not have known this at the time. In fact, Hussein's behavior indicated otherwise. Further, it is entirely possible that Hussein destroyed, hid and/or exported the bulk of his CBNR materials in the months leading up to the war. As the U.S.-led coalition was building its forces prior to the invasion, this is exactly what one would expect Hussein to have done. David Kay has made it clear that he believes that large amounts of chemical and bio-weapons materials were exported to Syria and are now stored in bunkers there. Those opposed to the war have argued that Hussein would never trust his weapons with a foreign country, but this is contradicted by historical fact. In the lead-up the 1991 war, the Iraqi military moved the bulk of its air force to Iranian soil. Iran was Saddam's oldest enemy, Syria on the other hand had been an ally. It would be surprising if he did not move much of his illicit weapons to Syria before the 2003 invasion, based on this history. "Since Saddam, by your understandings, had these weapons for quite some time" Not only by my understandings, by the reports of the UN inspection teams. "and, again by your understandings, had both motive and opportunity, why did we not see an attack?" The planning for September 11 required ten years. For al Qaeda (or other group) to mount a succesful CBNR attack would take a great deal of time. This alone might answer your question. There are a number of other possibilities. Al Qaeda's plan to detonate chemical devices in Jordan and continental Europe were interdicted. Why is it so impossible to believe that the same could be true in the US?



Posts: 625
Joined: 2003-02-15
Re: Once started
Kff [Me: Re; yours of 12-Oct-2004 05:35: Skillfully put, but so shot full of holes it quite exceeds my patience, not to mention available time, to deal with them all – at least for the moment.] [You: Skillfully put, but so shot full of holes it quite exceeds my patience," This is unfortunate, but not unusual.] Thank you for providing me with a relatively succinct demonstration of your methods, allowing me to comment. I wrote: But there is one matter I would invite you to comment on: So where are these quantities now? What do you suppose their fate to have been? Aren’t you in the least bit worried? Your reply: “No, not in the least. . . . . .”> And then you proceed with an academic discussion on the fate and whereabouts of those weapons. Remarkable! You believe there are weapons of Mass Destruction on the loose in the heart of the Middle East, a highly volatile region brimming with people who hate us and deeply desire those weapons, and you have no concern at all that those people will secure, or already have secured, those weapons. You have argued Just such an outcome justified (even required!) the invasion of Iraq, but now, the invasion having taken place, and none of these horrific weapons secured, you are “not in the least” worried. Remarkable! Or could that “academic discussion” have been a transparent dodge to avoid the obvious. Oh No! Not That! On the other hand you continue: "Since Saddam, by your understandings, had these weapons for quite some time" Not only by my understandings, by the reports of the UN inspection teams. The question, of course, is not one of the credibility, or lack of same, with regard to those understandings, but of the intellectual rigor (or honesty?) of someone who urges war because of the existence of WMD’s, but, having had the war, and not secured the weapons, now protests an utter lack of concern “No, not in the least . . . .” for whereabouts and ownership of those weapons. No concern for who may have them, or what they may be about to do with them. No, not in the least! Oh, and by the way: As this seems quite contrary to the conclusions I recall David Kay communicated to the Congress and the American people, could we have some documentation? I would propose one element of the method your recent communications demonstrate is to lard a seemingly reasonable flow of argument with outright lies or gross distortions. Prove me wrong here. Message was edited by: ronr327



Posts: 92
Joined: 2003-07-20
Re: Once started
ronr327, You appear to be feeling a bit ornery this morning. I appear to have misunderstood your question, "Aren't you in the least bit worried?" Your recent post has reinforced my confusion. If you are asking am I worried that the Bush administration pursued the wrong policy because no WMD were found, then my answer is "No, not in the least." If you are asking am I worried about where these weapons may be now, and who may have access to them, then the answer is "Yes, very much." As for support for the David Kay contentions, this was widely reported, including on AP I believe. Here is a link to the Telegraph, which I think had the earliest interview. I have others if you require: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/01/25/wirq25.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/01/25/ixnewstop.html As for my methods, I try to restrict my discussion to objective facts and common sense thinking about our current situation.



Posts: 625
Joined: 2003-02-15
Re: Once started
kff, http://democrats.com/view2.cfm?id=19102 Confused? An elephant in your living room can have that effect. Congratulations! Your befuddlement clears. You acknowledge the elephant. Progress! Do you suppose your “confusion” over the elephant’s presence carried any credibility? So then, hasn’t the President been either blind (incompetent?), or blatantly deceptive, by insisting he believed those weapons existed, but, having failed to secure them, insisting to the American people that the Iraq war – urgently required on the basis of those weapons – has made us safer? It certainly can’t be a “slam dunk” that we are safer. Perhaps the President has now accepted the absence of those weapons so he can claim to have made us safer without so frightening a matter left twisting in the wind. But then you still believe in those weapons. Where did your urgency go? No indignation at an administration which ignores so critical a question? What we have seen here instead is a smooth, measured approval for Bush’s course, despite what you now admit worries you: “Yes, very much” I will freely concede you have good documentation for your David Kay claim, and so I apologize for my aspersion, but - for the moment - only in this particular instance. But I find this bit of business concerning Kay more than a little puzzling. The source for Kay’s Syria contention is Telegraph piece you cite. All references I could discover seem to circle back to that. A day or two later, in the New York Times [ http://democrats.com/view2.cfm?id=19102 ], he appeared to undercut most of what is found in the Telegraph, although the matter is not pursued in any depth: “Dr. Kay said there was also no conclusive evidence that Iraq had moved any unconventional weapons to Syria, as some Bush administration officials have suggested. He said there had been persistent reports from Iraqis saying they or someone they knew had seen cargo being moved across the border, but there is no proof that such movements involved weapons materials.” The curious thing is that he never seems to have returned to the Telegraph contentions. Many months later, in August of 2004, he gave an extensive interview in Chemical and Engineering News: [ http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8231/8231kay.html ] There is no mention of WMD’s and Syria there, although it is quite a broad and in depth discussion. Given Kay’s clear concern for the whole question of WMD’s, that is strange indeed. Note especially the conclusion of the piece, beginning with the C&EN question: “C&EN: Why, after you resigned, did you say ISG needed to continue its work even though you believed it wouldn't find weapons?” That is indeed the persona you have projected (at least recently), but such measured calm, in light of the: “Yes very much” just elicited, rings hollow, more evasion (or denial?) than "objective". Message was edited by: ronr327



Posts: 92
Joined: 2003-07-20
Re: Once started
ronr, “http://democrats.com/view2.cfm?id=19102 ” This article deserves more than casual comment. What is required is a comparison of Risen/NY Times’ spin vs. David Kay’s actual words in his various interviews. I will leave that for another post. Suffice to say at this point, the NY Times is a MUCH less than reliable source. All the news that’s fit to spin. I would have thought the Jason Blair and Dan Rather scandals would have taught you to read with a more skeptical eye. “Confused? An elephant in your living room can have that effect.” A sloppy and rather cheap shot, ron. My confusion was with your question, not with the situation in Iraq. “Do you suppose your “confusion” over the elephant’s presence carried any credibility?” Credibility is earned, ron, and so far you are scoring below 50th percentile. “So then, hasn’t the President been either blind (incompetent?), or blatantly deceptive, by insisting he believed those weapons existed,” In a word, ‘no’. As I said in a previous post, before the Iraq invasion of 2003, most observers believed Saddam had CBNR weapons in his possession. Those in this consensus included the intelligence services of Russia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Britain, Australia, etc. Also in accord were the Senate intelligence committee, and John Kerry. Go back to my original post and you can read Kerry’s own words. Or simply do a search on Kerry and October 9 and speech. As with your credibility, your score is subpar on research. It is dishonest (or uninformed) to accuse President Bush of incompetence or inaccuracy before the invasion. It is also a failure of basic logic. Most believed Saddam had CBNR weapons before mid-2003. “having failed to secure them, insisting to the American people that the Iraq war – urgently required on the basis of those weapons – has made us safer? It certainly can’t be a “slam dunk” that we are safer.” We are safer in terms of the threat posed by the Hussein regime, its ongoing series of attacks on the U.S. at home and abroad, and its massive procurement efforts across the range of weapons systems. That much should be very clear, even to one such as yourself. “Perhaps the President has now accepted the absence of those weapons so he can claim to have made us safer without so frightening a matter left twisting in the wind. But then you still believe in those weapons.” Chuckle. There are beliefs/speculation and there are facts. I BELIEVE that President Bush has ‘accepted that there were no weapons found in Iraq’ to remove some of the force of his opponent’s rhetoric. The FACTS are that such weapons were found in Iraq, just not in the quantities expected. One can speculate as to the reasons for this, and there are many possibilities. They may have been destroyed. They may still be hidden in the sand (remember when ISG pulled an entire fighter aircraft out of a sand dune)? They may have been, as David Kay has indicated, transported out of Iraq to other countries, such as Syria. In one interview, Kay provided the detailed locations where he believed they were stored in Syria. “Where did your urgency go?” My urgency has been reduced by the active policies of the Bush administration. Al Qaeda is on the run, Afghanistan is a democratic republic, and Iraq will be in January as well. Solid progress, thus the urgency, in comparison to January 2003, is reduced. “No indignation at an administration which ignores so critical a question?” No, rather a great deal of respect for an administration that dealt with the urgent threat of the Hussein regime, the Taliban regime, and al Qaeda. The work continues. No one is ignoring any of these threats. You are ignoring the work that the administration continues to pursue at great cost in American lives and treasure. “I will freely concede you have good documentation for your David Kay claim, and so I apologize for my aspersion, but - for the moment - only in this particular instance.” Well, then, a limited thank you is deserved. “But I find this bit of business concerning Kay more than a little puzzling. The source for Kay’s Syria contention is Telegraph piece you cite. All references I could discover seem to circle back to that. A day or two later, in the New York Times [ http://democrats.com/view2.cfm?id=19102 ], he appeared to undercut most of what is found in the Telegraph, although the matter is not pursued in any depth” This appearance results precisely because the NY Times has become a tool of the left propagandists. Really has been for some time. “Dr. Kay said there was also no conclusive evidence that Iraq had moved any unconventional weapons to Syria, as some Bush administration officials have suggested. He said there had been persistent reports from Iraqis saying they or someone they knew had seen cargo being moved across the border, but there is no proof that such movements involved weapons materials.” Were they shipping food? Clothing? What was the explanation for this sudden ramp in heavy trucks crossing that border? Again, this was one of many possible explanations. More important, it has no impact on Bush’s original reasoning for taking down the Hussein regime. To repeat, you cannot logically indict Bush for decisions he made in 2002/early 2003 based on what he could not have known at that time, especially when most agreed that Hussein had CBNR weapons capability before the invasion. “The curious thing is that he never seems to have returned to the Telegraph contentions. Many months later, in August of 2004, he gave an extensive interview in Chemical and Engineering News: [ http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8231/8231kay.html ] There is no mention of WMD’s and Syria there, although it is quite a broad and in depth discussion. Given Kay’s clear concern for the whole question of WMD’s, that is strange indeed. Note especially the conclusion of the piece, beginning with the C&EN question: “C&EN: Why, after you resigned, did you say ISG needed to continue its work even though you believed it wouldn't find weapons?” I would also note that Kay’s own words in the C&EN interview show that Bush was neither incompetent nor lying before the war: “Almost all those inspectors who spoke out before the war believed that Iraq had WMD, whether they were currently involved with inspections or had been involved in the past. As is true among scientists, the inspection community--and there were not that many inspectors--had an informal contact network that kept us all informed of what was being unearthed. And I think most inspectors were of the opinion that the evidence indicated that Saddam was still hiding something.” “ That is indeed the persona you have projected (at least recently), but such measured calm, in light of the: “Yes very much” just elicited, rings hollow, more evasion (or denial?) than "objective".” In comparison to earlier postings, my persona has shifted. There is a reason for this. When I first began to participate in OpenDemocracy, based on its charter, I expected a reasoned exchange of ideas. I found the nastiness and emotionality here VERY frustrating. Despite my continuing disappointment in this regard (which your most recent post does nothing to dispel) I now endeavor to remain objective.



Posts: 1220
Joined: 2003-10-13
Re: Once started
It's amazing that KFF is still involved in 'flogging a dead horse'. It is abundantly clear to anyone with a brain bigger than a walnut, that Saddam Hussein was a busted flush from the WMD point of view, long before the war started. The story that was put about that his son-in-law, when he fled to Jordan had said that Saddam had WMD, did not quote an essential element and that was that he said that the possession of the WMD was prior to the early 1990's and not after. This deliberate omission has been made countless times and is typical of those that will never give up on the false WMD trail. The BBC is to put out a series of three documentaries in the next week or so, which deals with 'The Terror Myth'. I have copied an extract from an article on this programme, which can be found at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/0,6957,178327,00.html "Much of the currently perceived threat from international terrorism, the series argues, "is a fantasy that has been exaggerated and distorted by politicians. It is a dark illusion that has spread unquestioned through governments around the world, the security services, and the international media." The series' explanation for this is even bolder: "In an age when all the grand ideas have lost credibility, fear of a phantom enemy is all the politicians have left to maintain their power." I agree with the views expressed in the article and with the programmes producer; the 'War on terror' as far as WMD are concerned is largely an exaggeration on the part of the politicians. That is not to say that detonating bombs occassionally is not an aim of some extremists operating in small cells.But that is pretty much the extent of it. The article explains the reasons for the perpetuation of the 'terror myth' and people like KFF have the effect of a broken gramaphone needle, that goes on repeating the same old bit of a tune. Message was edited by: brolly2_1 Message was edited by: brolly2_1 Message was edited by: brolly2_1



Posts: 92
Joined: 2003-07-20
Re: Once started
"It's amazing that KFF is still involved in 'flogging a dead horse'. It is abundantly clear to anyone with a brain bigger than a walnut, that Saddam Hussein was a busted flush from the WMD point of view, long before the war started." It is abundantly clear that you ignore any fact that does not comport with your view. If Iraqi possession of WMD was disproven long before the war started, why did the UN inspectors, who were on the ground in Iraq up to that point believe he was hiding WMD? Why did John Kerry agree with this assessment? Why did the intelligence agencies of most major powers agree? Why did the UN security council pass resolution 1441, which you can read here: http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/scres/2002/res1441e.pdf Resolution 1441 states in part, "Recognizing the threat Iraq's non-compliance with Council resolutions and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles poses to international peace and security," "Deploring the fact that Iraq has not provided an accuate, full, final and complete disclosure, as required by resolution 687 (1991), of all aspects of its programmes to develop weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles . . . as well as all other nuclear programmes, . . ." You are the one flogging the dead horse, brolly, the broken nag that is the argument that Bush could or should have 'known' that Iraq had no WMD. The UN Security Council even disagrees with you. Imagine that. "The BBC is to put out a series of three documentaries in the next week or so, which deals with 'The Terror Myth'." Ah, this must be that same BBC that apologized to the Blair government for falsifying the reports of David Kelly, leading to his suicide. More propaganda from the chief of anti-war propagandists. We'll see what they have to say when medical waste is detonated in London or Birmingham. Was the fear of terror in Madrid misplaced? I think not. "Much of the currently perceived threat from international terrorism, the series argues, "is a fantasy that has been exaggerated and distorted by politicians. It is a dark illusion that has spread unquestioned through governments around the world, the security services, and the international media." The series' explanation for this is even bolder: "In an age when all the grand ideas have lost credibility, fear of a phantom enemy is all the politicians have left to maintain their power." Tell that to those who died in Madrid and Georgia, or those that narrowly escaped chemical extermination in Jordan a couple of months ago. "I agree with the views expressed in the article and with the programmes producer; the 'War on terror' as far as WMD are concerned is largely an exaggeration on the part of the politicians." And of course you would. But to retain this view, you must continue to ignore the facts that any objective observer can see. Go to it, it seems par for your course.



Posts: 625
Joined: 2003-02-15
Re: Once started
kff, Exchange: A sloppy and rather cheap shot, ron. My confusion was with your question, not with the situation in Iraq. “Do you suppose your “confusion” over the elephant’s presence carried any credibility?” Credibility is earned, ron, and so far you are scoring below 50th percentile.”> I am quite content to let the readers consider the record as it stands. And, of course, what immediately follows invites them to judge your own credibility: In a word, ‘no’. As I said in a previous post, before the Iraq invasion of 2003, most observers believed Saddam had CBNR weapons in his possession. Those in this consensus included the intelligence services of Russia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Britain, Australia, etc. Also in accord were the Senate intelligence committee, and John Kerry. Go back to my original post and you can read Kerry’s own words. Or simply do a search on Kerry and October 9 and speech. As with your credibility, your score is subpar on research. It is dishonest (or uninformed) to accuse President Bush of incompetence or inaccuracy before the invasion. It is also a failure of basic logic. Most believed Saddam had CBNR weapons before mid-2003. “having failed to secure them, insisting to the American people that the Iraq war – urgently required on the basis of those weapons – has made us safer? It certainly can’t be a “slam dunk” that we are safer.” We are safer in terms of the threat posed by the Hussein regime, its ongoing series of attacks on the U.S. at home and abroad, and its massive procurement efforts across the range of weapons systems. That much should be very clear, even to one such as yourself.” What I wrote was: So then, hasn’t the President been either blind (incompetent?), or blatantly deceptive, by insisting he believed those weapons existed, but, having failed to secure them, insisting to the American people that the Iraq war – urgently required on the basis of those weapons – has made us safer? You elide the “but”! Cleaver? Maybe, but credible? You quite alter the sense of my question, which you proceed to “rebut” as two fragments in isolation. Credibility, thy name is kff.! A splendid demonstration of “method”. And, of course, you continue to avoid the embarassment of your position. As for the Kay/Syria matter. His testimony continues to be of great interest, offering things to both sides of the contention over WMD’s and Iraq. On weapons in Syria, I offer this from Kay’ s testimony before the U.S. Congress, Wednesday January 28, 2004: Sen. Ben Nelson: All right. You know, you’ve indicated that you found no evidence of existing stockpiles of WMDs. Is it possible that they found their way to Syria? Is there any way of knowing whether they found their way to Syria or to another location? Mr. Kay: In terms of possibility, I mean, you can’t rule out anything. The way I tried to direct our activities— I knew we were not going to get permission to conduct inspections in Syria, as much as I would professionally and personally have enjoyed it. I also knew that the intelligence we collected, that showed movement of material across the Iraq-Syrian border, didn’t show what was in the containers. So you try to answer that question by saying, “Was there something to be moved back across the border?” Look at production capability. It’s totally inadequate for saying, “Did they move small amounts? Did they move technology? Did they move documentation?” Absolutely possible. I would say probable. But my personal belief is that they did not move large stockpiles, because I do not believe they had reconstituted a capability that had produced large stockpiles. So that’s how you get at it. Is it inadequate? Yeah. Will it probably always remain as an— Unless the Syrian regime, you know, really changes course. Will it always remain uncertain? Yeah. Sen. Ben Nelson: Is it a basic assumption on your part? Or a suspicion that’s based on the evidence, that you said, movement of certain undefined, non-inspected containers, or other activity, that took things across the border? Mr. Kay: My belief that they did not move large stockpiles of WMD to Syria is based on my conclusion that there were not large stockpiles to move. My assumption that it might have been something else is there was so much movement that you just can’t rule out what was there. I don’t know. Sen. Ben Nelson: Well, is it fair to say that the people who were in charge of the weapons of mass destruction activity probably were better informed about how to secret it than those who decided to bury airplanes? Mr. Kay: {Chuckles} One makes that assumption. Sen. Ben Nelson: I would think so. Mr. Kay: Now, I, and, as you know, I also have to say, that the people most likely to have been involved in this movement were the people in the intelligence services and around Uday and Qusay. And fortunately for the world, Uday and Qusay are no longer around to give evidence. And a lot of those intelligence agents are either now dead or they’re in opposition to the U.S. and not available for ISG. So, there is a limited circle of people who probably had firsthand knowledge about moving it. And here’s how we get to irreducible uncertainty. They’re dying. Not soon enough, in my view. But they are dying. Sen. Ben Nelson: Well, Dr. Kay, I appreciate very much, as I say, your candor. And I, I totally agree with you that an outside body investigating and {p.43} looking into this intelligence credibility issue is important. Certainly, it’s, it’s absolutely critical to the first-strike doctrine, which has to be on the basis of what you know — not what you think you know. And I appreciate your candor with respect to that as well. I’m certain that that’s not always an easy thing, to be able to take a position that strong. But I do appreciate that you’ve done that. Mr. Kay: Thank you. Sen. Ben Nelson: Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Complete transcript can be found at: http://homepage.ntlworld.com/jksonc/docs/davidkay-sasc-20040128.html As for Kay as a whole, I sense a real strain between his protestations of support for the administration’s course, and his damning, not just of the intelligence, but of what he represents as a clear dereliction of duty by the administration in weighing and judging that intelligence - as the conclusion of the C&EN piece I alluded to demonstrates [Beginning with the question: “C&EN: Why, after you resigned, did you say ISG needed to continue its work even though you believed it wouldn't find weapons?”] I again direct the reader’s attention to it: http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8231/8231kay.html Message was edited by: ronr327



Posts: 698
Joined: 2004-07-31
Re: Once started
This is a repeat of a discussion elsewhere. KFF is quite correct in what he has said, and ron & his sidekick brolly are wrong. What matters is not the rantings of these two or anyone else in the media etc etc etc. It matters not what anyone says before a Select Committee AFTER the event: it is what goes on BEFORE that is of importance. The nub of all of this is what was in briefing papers presented to Ministers and upon which they reached a judgement. Much as I hate Tony Blair, had I been presented with the briefing papers he had I would have had no choice but to assume that Saddam still retained WMD. You can read much of this material in the Butler Report. What ron, brolly et al are doing is saying 'we know Saddam did not have WMD before the war', when in reality as KFF points out all the evidence then available said he did and they 'knew' no such thing. They 'assumed' and that is not the samething. Any Minister taking their advice would have been guilty of a gross breach of duty. The Blix report listed a large amount of material which was still outstanding. Are they saying that Blix was a liar ? Are they saying this material never existed, when we know and Saddam knew it had existed ? It was not for the West, UN or anyone else to prove that Saddam retained this material (its existance was an established fact): it was for Saddam to prove he did not. For reasons only he can explain this he singluarly failed to do. The material may have been sent to Syria, but we need to discover what has become of it and explain this. I have no real knowledge of the situation in the US, so my remarks and comments are based upon what has occured in the UK. What is clear is that the intelligence was not 'dodgy' or wrong as ron says. The intelligence produced by SIS through the JIC said that information on Saddam's WMD was 'sporadic and patchy'. That was spot on. All we knew for certain was that Saddam had x, y & z, but if he was producing more material we could not say. What Blair did was to take 'sporadic & patchy' and turn it into 'detailed and authorative'. It was no such thing. He has yet to explain how the intelligence services 'qualified uncertainties became his unqualified certainties'. This he has failed to do.



Posts: 1220
Joined: 2003-10-13
Re: Once started
KFF and 'sidekick' owly, (or as he was known in his former incarnation, 'wyselowl') There are a couple of simple questions that I will put to both of the above: Why did the US and the UK not allow Dr Blix the extra few months that he said he needed to show one way or another the answer to the question of the missing WMD? What was the point of agreeing to inspections and then preventing the chief Inspector from fulfilling his brief? I know the answer and so does almost everyone else (with a few exceptions ). The Bush administration was going to invade Iraq whatever the evidence that was found and, as it turned out to be, not found. The enormous anger felt in the UK for both Bush and Blair ( apart from Owly, who is quite the reactionary - I suspect he is a Likudnik) is because people felt that the UN was misused. Bush made a gesture to Colin Powell and Blair by going to the UN and was probably persuaded by Blair that he (Blair) would get the necessary Second Resolution. Blair was quite desperate to get this resolution as he knew an invasion would be illegal and at the time his cabinet ministers were speaking about 'going flat out' to get one passed. This suggests that Blair was advised that an invasion without a Second Resolution authorising the use of force, was necessary.Why go 'flat out' if an invasion was legal under the First Resolution? There is no doubt that the Attorney General was persuaded to change his opinion when it was realised that the second Resolution would not be obtained and that Bush was going to proceed anyway. Blair needed to save his own bacon and the Attorney General came to his rescue. Blair has refused despite numerous requests, to publish the FULL opinion given to him on this issue. It now is revealed that three ( not one as was formerly stated) Foreign Office legal advisers resigned because they believed the invasion was illegal. As for the probable response that the UN Inspectors would never have found out the true situation, this is a laugh because the Iraqi Survey Team proceeded to follow up much of the work of Blix and found nothing either, even though they had the absolute run of the country. The so-called 'Slam Dunk' evidence was not fully offered to Blix, who complained that he was not being given the assistance he expected from the CIA to establish the validity of this 'evidence' What he was given he found to be completely useless and did not show anything of significance. There has been an argument that if the UN Inspections had carried on and then terminated on the basis that nothing incriminating had been found, that this would have allowed Saddam to reconstitute his WMD programme at some later time.This does not follow, as there was nothing to stop the sanctions being applied with renewed vigour on the technical front. There were only a few sources that could supply the material needed for making a nuclear bomb and these were known.The fact is that containment had worked and that there was no strong and compelling evidence to the contrary. The neoconseravtive influenced Bush was determined to invade Iraq and the irony is that Iran, which is far more likely to get nuclear weapons, is now probably pursuing that goal while 90% of active US troops are pinned down in Iraq. Furthermore the US has got the problem of how to deal with Iran and the conquest of Iraq, has not in any discernible way stopped the prospect of nuclear proliferation. There is ample evidence that Colonel Gadaffi was intending to give up his pursuit of nuclear weapons capability, long before the invasion of Iraq. The Likudite neoconservatives had one particular goal in mind and that was to destroy Israel’s most obvious enemy, Saddam Hussein, and they together with the Administration’s oilmen, found common cause in instigating the invasion plan. During the lead up to the war and possibly after, the Pakistani scientist Ahmad Khan, was selling nuclear components and know-how to another so-called ‘axis of evil’ country, North Korea and also to Libya. Here is the perfect example of how the neoconservative obsession with Iraq, let some nuclear cats out of the bag. Message was edited by: brolly2_1 Message was edited by: brolly2_1 Message was edited by: brolly2_1 Message was edited by: brolly2_1



Posts: 625
Joined: 2003-02-15
Re: Once started
Owly, I don’t believe I have pronounced on this at all on this thread. What is in contention, in my contribution to this particular thread, is not the truth or falsity of the evidence over Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, or even the provenance of this or that action as a function of when the “truth” became known. What is in contention here is the intellectual consistency of believing such weapons in Saddam’s hands - from which they might slip at any moment to terrorists - was an urgent cause for war in the first quarter of 2003, yet having invaded, and failed to secure those weapons, maintaining we are surely somehow safer. After all, if it is believed those weapons are still there, beyond our knowledge and control, in a volatile and dangerous environment, it simply cannot be a “slam dunk” that we are safer. To put it another way (since kff is consistent only in avoiding facing up to the dilemma), where is the honesty in a professed high level of concern (justifying invasion!) for those weapons before the war, yet, after the invasion (Bush and Co. having failed to secure weapons still firmly represented to be there, somewhere!) projecting a steady and measured admiration for an administration whose actions have manifestly thrown those weapons up to the winds of war and the malice and greed of our enemies. Owly, I invite you to comment on the particular matter under discussion here.



Posts: 1220
Joined: 2003-10-13
Re: Once started
ronr327, ["Owly, I invite you to comment on the particular matter under discussion here".] You'll be lucky if owly and KFF respond to your salient point as they never have done in the past for obvious reasons.If on the other hand they do, expect some more of their waffle.



Posts: 111
Joined: 2003-09-13
Re: Once started
US troops "pinned down in Iraq?" You can't really believe that? Most troops are there for re-construction, not for combat operations.



Posts: 378
Joined: 2004-04-10
Re: Once started
Since I have no concept of how US troops are deployed in Iraq I can't argue with you, jmiddleton, except ... except ... why do the Brits have to move 850 troops from the Black Watch regiment to Baghdad from Basra so that there will be sufficient US forces available to re-retake Falluja? Are all the other US troops in Iraq just cooks, cleaners and builders? Oh, of course, and reservist, untrained prison guards.



Posts: 1220
Joined: 2003-10-13
Re: Once started
jmiddleton, Not exactly pinned down when they move about in tanks and armoured cars but certainly not able to move about freely on foot without being in mortal danger. In this sense they are pinned down. So what conclusion can we draw - they are not wanted, its as simple as that. Any argument to the contrary is flying in the face of the facts - nearly 1100 killed.



Posts: 111
Joined: 2003-09-13
Re: Once started
Capfka, Did they "have to" move those 850 troops? Who is filling in at Basra? Or is Basra now stable with Iraqi forces?



Posts: 111
Joined: 2003-09-13
Re: Once started
Brolly, Do you think 1100 is a lot? Compared to what? 3000? How does this compare to the number of casualties suffered by the US and its allies in peace time? Americans greatly value the sacrifice and service of its soldiers, but we are not afraid of this. See, we re-elected GW!



Posts: 186
Joined: 2003-12-02
Re: Once started
I am disappointed but not surprised that some people are still insisting that Saddam Hussein had any meaningful links to Al-Qaeda. Hussein's secular dictatorship was opposed by Bin Laden. The only significant connection between Iraq and Al-Qaeda (and even these are tenuous - in that one group previsouly a rival to Bin Laden's has apparently pledged support to him) has happened since the US invasion. Whatever terrible things Saddam did (and there are plenty of those), I find this retrospective, 'let's pin everything on Saddam because we've got him and not Bin Laden' rather sad and reminiscent of the tactics used by some police forces when trying to clear up unsolved crimes by pinning them on someone they happen to have arrested for other things. Look, even the current US administration no longer claims a link, and only a conspiratorially-minded extremists continue to plug this claim in the face of all the evidence. What is the point of flogging this dead horse? Just because you can't admit you were wrong about one small thing?



Posts: 131
Joined: 2003-07-07
Re: Once started
Ron, I will bite. > function of when the “truth” became known. What is in > contention here is the intellectual consistency of > believing such weapons in Saddam’s hands - from which > they might slip at any moment to terrorists - was an > urgent cause for war in the first quarter of 2003, > yet having invaded, and failed to secure those > weapons, maintaining we are surely somehow safer. > > To put it another way (since kff is consistent only > in avoiding facing up to the dilemma), where is the > honesty in a professed high level of concern > (justifying invasion!) for those weapons before the > war, yet, after the invasion (Bush and Co. having > failed to secure weapons still firmly represented to > be there, somewhere!) projecting a steady and > measured admiration for an administration whose > actions have manifestly thrown those weapons up to > the winds of war and the malice and greed of our > enemies. Two answers. First, I am not so sure the issue of WMD in isolation was an "urgent cause for war," even though politicians in Britain, Australia and Britain professed so to the media and thus the people of their countries and the world as a whole. Clearly, the decision to go to the UN in August 2002 was an attempt to gain international support for the Bush administration's decision that the status quo in the Middle East was untenable after 9/11. Iraq was an easier target than Iran, a fellow revisionist state, and there were clear strategic reasons (chronic instability, pre-existing undeclared war with the US re no-fly zones, breaking the logjam of Arab intransigence regarding Israel) for getting rid of Saddam. Why the administration did not make this clear is beyond me. Instead, they took the UN route, got sidetracked into the WMD fiasco and have suffered ever since, in particular because they then belatedly tried to make the strategic argument that they should have adopted in the first place. The September 2002 National Security Strategy policy document clearly indicates the U.S. is now a revolutionary state. It would have been better to make that more clear. Second, as to the claim of being "safer" when Iraqi WMD's are either missing or hidden or non-existent and thus unknowable, I personally believe this can be put in the "it is an election year" column. Brought up by Kerry and pounded on by his political enemies, Bush was forced to make it a centerpiece of his stump speeches. I think it as simple as the fact that politicians in representative democracies almost always obfuscate the truth to get re-elected. Heck, Athenian politicians fibbed as much as this as well, and pretty much everyone in between. On the other hand, making the "safer" argument does not have to reference WMD, which clearly we now know is no longer as important, primarily because the regime is gone and no stocks were discovered. The last time WMD clearly mattered was when the US military spent countless millions of dollars on chemical WMD defensive gear and systems to protect Coalition forces in the Arabian Gulf and Kuwait. Believe me, I watched some of that and it was no joke. The worry was very real. What no one realized was the incompetence and self-interested lying carried out by Saddam's regime and thus WMD proved a hollow tiger. And has been ever since. Tim


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