The final balance of the war has not yet tipped against the regime and, if and when it does, no ‘red-line’ will stop Assad from using chemical weapons on a scale that would make Halabja look like a small incident. Will Obama prevent another tragedy? 

What is missing is any serious discussion about the plight of the Syrian people. If it turns out that a red line has been crossed, then any intervention will be a geo-political intervention against the Assad regime. The likely response is to arm the rebels rather than to intervene to protect ordinary people.

We need to understand what the Syrians want, fear, believe, and why they act in the way they do. It is not an easy task. But it is the only way if you really hold that the future of Syria must be in the hands of the Syrian people and not in the hands of external powers.

Whereas the government and security institutions of Egypt and Tunisia have remained intact, necessity being the mother of invention, a new form of governance has emerged in Syria. This in itself is worth celebrating and supporting.

Before the uprising, Erdoğan and Davutoğlu tried to turn Damascus and Aleppo into safe market havens. Perhaps Turkey still expects eventually to have the lion's share in a future reconstructed Syria, but the ruling AKP party may pay a high price for its regional policies.

The only Arab country where protests started from rural areas might find itself facing an internationally funded reconstruction which will award money to urban centres, thus abandoning the very roots of the current crisis. The only solution is to build economic awareness. Starting from now.