David Marquand (Oxford): The real significance of the May elections has to do with the dog that didn’t bark. We are now seeing an extraordinary change in the political culture of the British state, corresponding to the institutional changes carried through in Blair’s first term. Both in Wales and Scotland there is now a distinct political will, expressed in an through distinct legislative bodies. The emergence of such a will was always likely, but thanks to the unpopularity of the now utterly discredited Blair Government it has happened much more quickly than I expected. It is not a question of ‘nationalism’, still less of ‘separatism’. It’s a question of nationhood, which is a quite different thing. There is no reason of principle why the Labour parties of Wales and Scotland cannot be the vehicles of Welsh and Scottish nations. But to allow that to happen, the UK Labour Party would have to undergo a profound cultural and institutional revolution of its own. Failing that, ostensibly ‘nationalist’ parties have filled the vacuum.

But the real story is negative: why no English equivalent? It’s almost beyond dispute that England’s sense of nationhood has grown enormously in the last few years, largely in response to what has been happening west of the Severn and north of the Tweed. So far, however, it has not been expressed through the political process – except insofar as Cameron’s Conservative Party is de facto the English Nationalist party. But it seems to me clear that English nationhood will also be expressed politically, sooner or later. The great question for the future of British politics is when and how this will happen. But happen it will.