Liberal Democrats hegemonic

Anthony Barnett (London, OK): For the first time since the First World War the Liberals are defining popular feeling thanks to Vince Cable. They have been hegemonic before (meaning dominating and setting the framework of thought rather than directing it) when two liberals, Keynes and Beveridge, set the terms though not the politics of the welfare state for post-war Britain. Since then they have striven to be popular and influential, usually by being earnest and worthy (and sometimes by being cheap, cheerful and inebriated). But even when Paddy Ashdown was clearly the best man in the Commons for the top job there was something needy, marginal and outmaneuvered about being a Liberal Democrat. This sensation of good but doomed was never greater than with Ming Campbell. Now Vince Cable has achieved the most surprising breakthrough of all in a period of astounding reversals.

In private the sheer hatred of the members both the main parties for the third party reveals their vulnerability to its appeal. Today, it is the Tories especially who need Lib-Dem seats to win. And from the start Cameron has aimed to capture their voters' support. But now the attraction of the Lib Dems has a new character: no longer that of the underdog striving to be different, but that of the confident overdog who puts the old parties in their place. Cable's thoughtfulness and competence at economic policy made him the most authoritative critic during Northern Rock fiasco. He understood and had warned against the governments light oversight of the city and irresponsibility towards the credit boom. This earned him his place as the heavyweight whose attack on the Brown treasury showed up Cameron and Osborne as opportunist. This week he has punctured the Prime Minister's image of strength and foresight by casting him as a comic Mr Bean creating chaos by his obsession with detail and caution. Unfair? Not half as unfair as the treatment meted out to the Lib-Dems over the years. The damage to Brown will be great. The damage to the Conservatives could be greater if they become the number two opposition party with everyone in Prime Minister's question time waiting impatiently to get the polished Etonian gamesmanship over and done with before the Lib Dems make the strike that matters. How well the new leader, Clegg or Huhne, work with the well-focused judgement of Vince the hegemon will now determine his success. Done right and both of them could end up in a future cabinet.