Anthony Barnett (London, OK): With all the attention being paid on Labour's debacle and the rise of the Cameroons there is a very different situation north of the border, just watch this one minute BBC video (I can't get it to load directly). The Labour vote seems to be holding in Scotland at around 30 percent, perhaps out of loyalty to Brown (?) but Tory and Lib Dem opposition seems to be crashing as people switch to the SNP. As Scott points out in a comment on my 'First Thoughts after Labour's Debacle' there was a by-election in Scotland which had a 15 per cent swing away from the Tories - to the SNP.
A Gentle Reminder...
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Comments
Under a Cameron UK government, which now seems the most likely outcome (subject to Labour dumping Brown - also unlikely), while UK constitutional reform would be put on hold Westminster-side, the growth in demands for an independence referendum in Scotland would surely only accelerate: the increasingly SNP and Labour-dominated Scotland would not take too kindly to being dependent on a Tory UK government, whether or not it decided to 'appease' English-nationalist sentiment (which it wouldn't, anyway) through the sops of reducing the Barnett differentials and excluding Scottish and Welsh MPs from the committee stage of English bills.
Voting Tory could then ironically be the quickest route to breaking up the UK completely: via the independence route rather than the alternative federal model. One reason, perhaps, why English people will swing to the Tories at the next election! Prediction: either Scottish Labour will do a sneaky deal to get an independence referendum through before the next UK general election in the hope - from Labour's point of view - that it would be rejected; or - worst-case scenario - the Scots vote for it and the whole English Question and calls for UK-English parliamentary / electoral reform can be defused before a (rump) UK general election. Or Prime Minister Cameron does a deal with the SNP to hold a referendum after the 2012 Olympics, as he wouldn't want what would now be his showcase, not New Labour's, being ruined by a humiliating, 'Tibet-like' secession of Scotland from Team-GB. Either way, government for the English people by the English people could be on its way!
David, aka Britology Watch
Wendy Alexander, the Labour Parliamentary Group Leader in Scotland, has just called for a referendum on Scottish independence.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2246882.0.Alexander_backs_independence_referendum_in_shock_Uturn.php
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Wendy-39Bring-it-on39.4049804.jp
We’re still trying to work out whether this has been backed by Brown, (most probably as Wendy is his glove puppet in Scotland), whether the rest of the Labour party in Scotland thinks this way and how this fits in with any Labour strategies. It looks like a panic measure as SNP support grows and the implications of the debacle in the English local elections sink in.
Since Labour has always been vehemently against an independence referendum and as they’ve just set up the Calman Commission with the Lib-Dems and the Conservatives to look at all aspects of improving devolution except independence we’re all delighted but puzzled in the nationalist camp.
Much appreciated bringing the Scottish dimension into this, although the swing was 10% not 15%! Anyway the proverbial bomb exploded under Scottish society, media and politics yesterday as Wendy Alexander appeared to 'bring it on' to an independence referendum. I hope someone manages to prepare a piece on in on OK.
I think the loyalty in Scotland is to Labour. There is no particular affection for Brown.
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