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What happens to Labour if the Tories back strong devolution?

Matt Wardman, 29 - 06 - 2009
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David Melding AM, a Conservative Member of the Senedd, has suggested that Britain should implement a more fully federal Constitution, as a way of relieving pressures on the Union. This is from a piece by David Williamson at Wales Online.

The United Kingdom is in danger of disintegration and should embrace a federal structure of government and create individual parliaments in each nation, Conservative AM David Melding declares in a major book published today.

He envisages a new constitutional settlement which could cut the number of MPs at Westminster to 300 and officially recognise the sovereignty over domestic issues of the parliaments of Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Even ignoring the implication of a savage cut in the numbers of MPs at Westminster, this is fascinating politically for a number of reasons.

The Conservatives have sometimes been referred to as “English Nationalists”, and Conservative Government has been founded on a strong majority of English seats at Westminster - compensating for a position in Scotland and Wales which has consistently been much weaker for a generation.

In contrast, Labour has historically relied on an incumbent majority in Scotland and Wales to shore up a weaker English position vis-a-vis the Conservatives.

Labour is currently facing the prospect of a collapse in their vote across England, Wales and Scotland. This is similar to that suffered by the Conservatives in England in 1997 when the number of Conservative MPs halved. One crumb of comfort for Labour is that the Conservatives were completely extinguished in both Scotland and Wales in the 1990s, and have now started to recover lost ground.

However, the circumstances for Labour are less propitious. If the Conservatives adopt the policy as suggested by David Melding, then power will move towards the devolved Parliaments, which do not have Westminster style alternating Conservative / Labour majorities. Beefed-up devolved assemblies would permanently shift the political centre of gravity away from the Westminster arena where Labour has dominated Welsh and Scottish representation to proportionally-elected bodies.

In this scenario, how would Labour recover?

There are two further points I want to mention. Firstly, the hardcore Conservative vote in England is around 35% - even in 1997 is only dipped slightly below that figure. Labour’s comparative figure has been somewhat lower - below 30%. If some form of English Parliament or Grand Committee were implemented that may naturally favour the Conservatives.

Secondly, one difference between 1997 and 2009 is that Wales and Scotland have - for the first time - seen the Liberal Democrats and SNP operating administrations at their respective devolved assemblies.

Have enough voters in the socialist heartlands of Wales and Scotland now become sufficiently comfortable with alternatives to Labour to allow them a try at Westminster level?

And finally, will the “anti-incumbent” and “anti traditional politics” mood feed this tendency?

The nightmare for Labour is that strong “nationalist” parties will make them a natural minority party in all areas of the United Kingdom. The bitter reality would be that their own attempts at devolution, in creating the conditions to facilitate a nationalist upsurge, may make this a ratchet that cannot easily be reversed, preventing their recovery from a significant fall in their vote.

Facing this potential political storm, I think it is no surprise that so many Labour MPs are taking honourable-looking ways out of politics; they would be doing so even without the exposure of Expenses abuses.

Historical Data

I’ve tabulated figures for number of Westminster MPs and percentage of the vote in UK General Elections from 1979 to 2005. These are all from the Keele Political Science Resources site for each of the main parties. I have conflated SDP and Liberal figures where both parties competed.

If anyone has time to graph these figures, or add analysis based on figures from the devolved Parliaments, or tell me why I am completely wrong - I’d be pleased to add a link.

I’d also be grateful for any corrections if I have transcribed data incorrectly.

England

Year : Con : Lab : LibDem

1979 : 306 (49.18) : 203 (36.67) : 7 (14.93)

1983 : 362 (45.98) : 148 (26.94) : 13 (26.36)

1987 : 357 (46.15) : 155 (29.51) : 10 (23.80)

1992 : 319 (45.46) : 195 (33.93) : 10 (19.18)

1997 : 165 (33.70) : 328 (43.55) : 34 (17.95)

2001 : 165 (35.2) : 323 (41.4) : 40 (19.4)

2005 : 194 (35.74) : 286 (35.46) : 47 (22.91)

Scotland

Year : Con: Lab: SNP : Lib Dem

1979 : 22 (31.41) : 44 (41.54) : 2 (17.29) : 3 (8.99)

1983 : 21 (28.37) : 41 (35.07) : 2 (11.75) : 8 (24.53)

1987 : 10 (24.03) : 50 (42.38) : 3 (14.04) : 9 (19.2)

1992 : 11 (25.65) : 49 (38.98) : 3 (21.48) : 9 (13.09)

1997 : 0 (17.51) : 56 (45.56) : 6 : (22.07) : 10 (12.97)

2001 : 1 (15.6) : 55 (43.3) : 5 (20.1) : 10 (16.3)

2005 : 1 (15.83) : 40 (38.87) : 6 (17.66) : 11 (23.01)

Wales

Year : Con: Lab: Plaid : Lib Dem

1979 : 11 (32.15) : 21 (46.95) : 2 (8.10) : 1 (10.61)

1983 : 14 (31.03) : 20 (35.07) : 2 (7.79) : 2 (23.2)

1987 : 8 (29.52) : 24 (45.06) : 3 (7.28) : 3 (10.68)

1992 : 6 (28.57) : 27 (49.5) : 4 (8.83) : 1 (12.43)

1997 : 0 (19.58) : 34 (54.75) : 4 (9.94) : 2 (12.35)

2001 : 0 (21.0) : 34 (48.6) : 4 (14.3) : 2 (13.8)

2005 : 3 (21.38) : 29 (42.71) : 3 (12.55) : 4 (18.4)

Northern Ireland

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives has won a Westminster seat in Northern Ireland, so these considerations are not currently relevant.

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F Rose (not verified) said:

Mon, 2009-08-03 23:03

Whilst I favour a federalist approach for those who wish to stay in a union (rather than federalising the union we have), I cannot agree that England is 'one state' within that union. I would guess that if England had to have a union, they'd rather lose the south, and be equal partners along the old Kingdoms (as States) along with Wales. Keeping the federal/council to a minimum regarding common issues, such as defense. The south is perceived as a colonialist force moving up through the British & Irish islands, and out to the world. There is something distinctly different that comes out of the south that cannot be found in other parts of Britain & Ireland, and is evident in the 'othering' of those outside itself; the BBC and newpapers are both peculiarly formatted. The US Constitution is a glaring example of what is wrong with the southern system, and yet there was always a refusal to hand back the right to self-govern. Always feels as though the only way the south understand itself is as an empire-builder. This is problematic for everyone, and makes the south a target for abuse, also. If England had a parliament, rather than radically altering the UK Gov and becoming equal states, then the south can only be an equal state within the English. Parl, and not as the seat of gov. The St George's flag and the monarch are the south's. The south should reclaim its own symbols; any federal symbols should be agreeable to all, and not based upon one dominant culture. The campaign for an English Parliament is partly a reaction to the Scottish attitude against the 'English'. This would only be a sticking-plaster. The feelings of Cornwall, Midlands and North towards the southern model will not go away. I never met anyone who called themselves 'English' before I lived down South. We have always had multiculturalism within white Britain, but it has been stifled by a controlling classification of its citizens, and it is unsurprising if people argue against other cultures when they have been made to ignore their own ancient story; the story of different peoples arriving here, and of different dialects and language-patterns. Devolution for England only exists if there is devolution within England.

Sarah2 (not verified) said:

Tue, 2009-08-04 08:47

"I never met anyone who called themselves 'English' before I lived down South."

Had you never lived in England before or met any English people then?

I've heard people spout this English = Southern stuff before. No idea what kind of world they live in. A 'see no evil one' maybe. There are opinion polls showing northerners as being more likely to say they're proud to be English than southerners. But English identity is unacceptable so apparently we're to be told we don't feel we're English and would rather split the country in two and go off with the Scots and the Welsh. Actually often we don't but it's what those suggesting the split and saying English = southern want so our opinions are magically remade to fit those.

tzazo (not verified) said:

Thu, 2009-07-09 11:27

Surely if the Union is to survive it must be something all the partner nations can willingly sign upto?

Which means it cannot continue to be a confusion of 'English' with 'British'. The two identities have to be seperated out. To ensure it is palatable to not just the 'Celtic' nations but also to the English themselves. Otherwise 'British' is increasingly looking like a identity being forced on an unwilling populace in an attempt to erase their English identity.

But the problem I see is that there is a greater desire to 'leave the world alone' among the 'celtic' nations than in England. A product of their different experiences I suspect over the course of history.
England cannot do that without utterly changing what it is.
"Better Drake at Cadiz, than Harold at Hastings" is the obvious lesson of history for England along with "unity is strength" (which is why dividing England up is rightly opposed).

Alex Buchan said:

Fri, 2009-07-10 14:30

Perry Anderson draws attention to this long tradition of intervening in other countries when he writes.

"At the same time, the English Nobility of the Middle Ages was as fully militarised and predatory a class as any in Europe: indeed it distinguished itself among its counterparts by the scope and constancy of its external aggression. No other feudal aristocracy of the later medieval epoch ranged so far and freely, as a whole order, from its territorial base. The repeated ravages of France during the Hundred Year War were the most spectacular feats of this militarism: but Scotland and Flanders, the Rhineland and Navarre, Portugal and Castile, were also traversed by armed expeditions from England in the 14th Cent. English knights fought abroad from the Forth to the Ebro in this age." [Lineages of the Absolutist State, page 116]

He does not see this as indicating a particular trait in the English character; he locates the reason for it in the structure of the Medieval English State, where the monarchy, as the central authority, enjoyed greater control than pertained in other states. But he notes that this led to a tradition of involvement in foreign conflict that influenced later developments.

I think there is a difference in attitudes in the component parts of the UK. Attitudes towards the Falkland’s War illustrated this. I remember in the British press there was an invoking of the age of Elizabeth I and it is noteworthy that there was very little support for this war in Scotland.

Alex Buchan

Toque said:

Wed, 2009-07-08 10:54

Well they're not an influence on me (European politics or Leopold Kohr) - not that I count myself as a political thinker.

Did you see this?

The Cornish Democrat said:

Wed, 2009-07-08 13:54
Well it certainly isn't in England so where is it then?
 
Could it be that Cornwall, the Duchy of, is a crown protectorate like Man or Jersey but which has been cloaked in the guise of an English county? 
 

Toque said:

Mon, 2009-07-06 15:43

I think you've misunderstood me.  It was local democracy in Canada that I was putting forward as a role model, not the federal structure (although federation seems to work reasonably well for Canada - apart from Quebec's constant bellyaching (even though they - like Scotland - have various privileges)).

My 'English regions' are counties. 

I don't think there's any example of a modern democracy as lop-sided as an England-Scotland-Wales federation.  Constitutional theorists tend to cite Prussia/German Confederation, Soviet Union or Yugoslavia....But let's be honest, they're not good examples on any level.  I tend to think that the UK will hold together for so long as the people of the UK want to hold together, and even under a lop-sided federation I think they would work to stay together.  Personally I don't really care.  I don't see any reason to break the Union up, unless it's the only way that an English parliament can be achieved.

Leopold who?  I don't think European politics has a great track record to be honest. 

The Cornish Democrat said:

Tue, 2009-07-07 19:00
"I don't think European politics has a great track record to be honest"
 
No and I see the UKs politics as being part of this malase as we are part of Europe.
 
Leopold Kohr wrote a book called 'The Break Down of Nations' that was a big influence on many political thinkers that followed.  
 

Toque said:

Fri, 2009-07-03 11:56

I don't know if I'll have a next political project.

I most certainly won't be campaigning for a regionalised England, not ever.  But if you're asking me what I think about local democracy in England, I think it would be a very good idea.  This should be addressed by an English constitutional convention with every bit as much urgency as an English parliament as far as I am concerned.

I'd probably take Canada as the template for good local democracy and civic involvement.  They seem to do well what we have lost.

Wessexman (not verified) said:

Fri, 2009-07-24 01:20

The thing is that English regionalism is absolutely necessary for such local democracy, to create balance between the myriad locales and counties on the one hand and the central English parliament on the others.

If you missed out the intermediate regions then not only would you have a more centralised level of gov't doing some thing it need not do, anathema to a decentralist and believer in true subsidiary(and anyone who knows how good gov't should be.) like myself, but it would a lop-sided initiative with not a enough balance and likely end up with an overbearing central gov't or perhaps less likely but possibly a chaotic affair of too independent and autonomous locales and counties.

Oh and I take offense at the Saxon revivalist nonsense. I'm a Wessex regionalist and I have seen little of that. We are simply people who care about our little part of England. Don't get me wrong I love my county; Dorset, and locale perhaps a little greater but after them it is Wessex and then England and I know that Wessex will be essential to any decent, decentralised change in England.

Zen9 said:

Fri, 2009-07-24 09:44

Regionalism should not be an alternative to an English Parliament running English affairs. Breaking England up is simply anathema to most, and is seen as a means to undermine the English voice in the UK.

Not to mention its the desired ideal for the Celtic states, a weak and divided England, easy to set one 'region' against another and abuse the lot for their own interests.

There is an argument for the SHIREs (to hell with 'counties', Shires have been around for 1000years) to work with each other on regional issues. But fixed formal structures could actualy be a impediment, if they limit that cooperation.

Now I hear that the likes of Danemark and Sweden have devolved a lot of power down to the equivilent of a Shire, with some positive results. Regionalism would be more like the German Lander.

As a Dorsetshire lad, and a Wessex man myself I must remind you it took southern steel to unite England in the first place, and that without it there would be no England by now.

Wessexman (not verified) said:

Mon, 2009-07-27 07:24

"Regionalism should not be an alternative to an English Parliament running English affairs. Breaking England up is simply anathema to most, and is seen as a means to undermine the English voice in the UK."

Local affairs should mostly be a local concern, county affairs mostly a county concern. This will require regionalism because otherwise there will not be balance. You will either have too chaotic a situation with the locales and counties having too much autonomy and not enough cohesion or you will get the more likely situation of the central gov't being able to divide and conquer the locales and counties and any hope of real decentralism and localism will not come about.

Saying it is anathema to most is unsupported, it is not on most people's radar.

It certainly would not require breaking England up, I'm a patriotic Englishmen for one --I'm simply more patriotic towards Wessex and Dorset however, and it could be achieved by still giving England a united voice in any UK gov't and not to mention its own gov't.

They also better serve the needs of real subsidiarity and accountability, because some things do need a higher level than a county or locale but not a national level and they will be closer to the people than an national gov't would.

Now I'm an avid decentralism I don't think a lot is required of the English gov't and less of any UK one.

"Not to mention its the desired ideal for the Celtic states, a weak and divided England, easy to set one 'region' against another and abuse the lot for their own interests. "

I think this is an overly hostile attitude that has precious little basis in fact. Not only would many regions be more wealthy and populace than these Celtic nations but such a policy could easily be countered in any reformed, regionalised UK. In fact I'd say Scotland and Wales themselves could be regionalised as well.

"There is an argument for the SHIREs (to hell with 'counties', Shires have been around for 1000years) to work with each other on regional issues. But fixed formal structures could actualy be a impediment, if they limit that cooperation. "

However such structures also create that fixed arena which any central gov't would have to come up against and give some power to these regions if any locales or counties are getting too self-interested and anarchic. They can also attract loyalty far better than any floating system.

"Now I hear that the likes of Danemark and Sweden have devolved a lot of power down to the equivilent of a Shire, with some positive results. Regionalism would be more like the German Lander. "

Denmark is pretty much the equivalent of a couple of these regions at most. It would probably gain from a few regions of its own but it has less need of that intermediate layer to balance things out because of its size.

Zen9 said:

Mon, 2009-07-27 23:39

I don't agree, Shire based government used to work just fine, and with the proper architecture to the Union as a whole does not need anything intermediate with an English Parliament. Which would be the proper forum for nationwide decisions.

It worked on the whole since it was instituted during the process of English Unification. But 'Regional' government tended to want to pull away from central authority. What checks on that would you put in place and how effective would they be?

Attracting loyalty is a powerful and dangerous thing to do, I would rather not have Wessex in competition with Northumbria or Mercia. It could divide England if successful.

Wessexman (not verified) said:

Tue, 2009-07-28 00:55

"I don't agree, Shire based government used to work just fine, and with the proper architecture to the Union as a whole does not need anything intermediate with an English Parliament. Which would be the proper forum for nationwide decisions."

County based gov't hasn't been around for centuries and when it was it was a very different. It would not work fine, you would have either chaos or more likely a quickly overbearing central gov't. How do you expect counties and locales to stand up to the central gov't and yet not completely lack cohesion. I can't but think you don't particularly want a lot of decentrlaism/localism. If that is true then we are bound to differ on this.

"It worked on the whole since it was instituted during the process of English Unification."

During that period, there were powerful earls of pretty much the regions we want who had a lot of authority. If the earls of Northumbria and Merica had got off their backsides in 1066 then they might of been able to push William back into the sea.

"But 'Regional' government tended to want to pull away from central authority. What checks on that would you put in place and how effective would they be? "

You always have such. Look at America, they felt the that with the articles of confederation the states had too much power and autonomy but with the constitution, even with the best efforts, they have not been able to stop the steady march of federal usurpation. You are always walking a tight-rope.

The beauty of regionalism is the extra little bit of balance. It better prevents the central gov't overawing the counties and locales because the regions are more powerful and better at standing up to it, but it will be kept in line by the counties better because they are more powerful when going up against it as when they go up against the central gov't. However the closer relationships between the counties in a region should help add some cohesion and minimise the risk of too much autonomy to the counties and locales, as should the position of the regional gov't which would be better placed to deal with them and keep them in-line.

Well I don't think a whole lot needs to be done at the central level of England or the UK beyond the usual foreign affairs and defence sort of stuff. The regions would have little need to pull away from central authority. The regions are however numerous and diverse enough to keep each other somewhat in-line at least, none overawes the others.

Perhaps we just have different idea of the level of decentralism that is best.

"Attracting loyalty is a powerful and dangerous thing to do, I would rather not have Wessex in competition with Northumbria or Mercia. It could divide England if successful. "

I doubt it, it could happen but if the set up is well planned it is unlikely. English identity and institutions would be maintained although I don't for one think an upsurge in local, county and regional patriotism is a bad thing, England is too big a nation not to have its patriotism tampered by such, to give it some decent roots and stop the growth of abstract jingoism.

Zen9 said:

Wed, 2009-07-29 12:04

We are certainly bound to disagree that is clear.

There was a lot more power at Shire level less than 100 years ago, indeed even 60 years ago than now. I see nothing wrong with that and little argument to take powers down only to regional level.

England is not too large a state in size or population, I disgree with that completely.

The Federal concept is one applicable the UK, how Scotland will subordinate power down is their concern.

And your missreading history. Canute reestablished the old kingdoms under the guise of super-earldoms, precisely to rule the country more easily and to be able to set on against the other. It lead to the rule of Edward the Confessor via Harefoot and Finehair.

Edwin and Morcar sat around arguing who should lead after Harold fell. Too much power in too few hands, ruling over too large a division of the realm lead to inaction when they where divided. A larger number of earls as had existed before Canute would've seen action since it woudl overcome that personnal and regional division.

 As for the idea loyalties are not powerful emotions that can produce strong actions, I have no idea where one might get such a notion.

 Now make sense of what you've said, since this looks rather odd to me and I need translation.

"How do you expect counties and locales to stand up to the central gov't and yet not completely lack cohesion."

 

Wessexman (not verified) said:

Thu, 2009-07-30 01:23

"We are certainly bound to disagree that is clear.

There was a lot more power at Shire level less than 100 years ago, indeed even 60 years ago than now. I see nothing wrong with that and little argument to take powers down only to regional level.

England is not too large a state in size or population, I disgree with that completely."

I agree, I want a lot more power level at shire level and local level. I'm quite the decentralist, I probably want a lot more than you've even envisioned. I certainly don't want to only take powers down to the regional level, I'd take as many powers as can possibly, decently exist there to the lowest level possible. England however is probably too large to be balanced with 38 counties(I've deducted Cornwall.) on one-side and a central gov't on the other. That is why regions are required. They both help to keep the counties in line without surrendering too much power to the central gov't which they also help to keep at bay.

Plus we haven't dealt with the idea of subsidiarity. I'm an ardent decentralist and believe in a very cautious and conservative subsidiarity that only surrenders power and control when absolutely necessary. There are simply tasks that can't be done by counties but don't require a central gov't to do them and with the other advantages of regional authorities I think this becomes an excellent argument for them.

"And your missreading history. Canute reestablished the old kingdoms under the guise of super-earldoms, precisely to rule the country more easily and to be able to set on against the other. It lead to the rule of Edward the Confessor via Harefoot and Finehair.

Edwin and Morcar sat around arguing who should lead after Harold fell. Too much power in too few hands, ruling over too large a division of the realm lead to inaction when they where divided. A larger number of earls as had existed before Canute would've seen action since it woudl overcome that personnal and regional division. "

No it was you who brought up the history.

I don't think it is particularly applicable to the current situation. Morcar and Edwin could have resisted William better than if there was no unification in the North but the situations weere very different. Canute nor them had a constitutional system of semi-autonomous regions with semi-autonomous counties within them, it is in the end hard to compare lackey earls to such or even to earls whose families have long ruled the area and feel themselves not just lackeys of a particular monarch. One cannot say compare the aristocracy built up by Napoleon with the ancient nobility of the sword.

"As for the idea loyalties are not powerful emotions that can produce strong actions, I have no idea where one might get such a notion. "

I don't disagree. I'm saying that I see no need for loyalty to Wessex to say completely destroy loyalty to England. England would be the nation, it would have the monarchy and the church and let's not forget the football team. It might not always be an easy ride but it seems better than the alternative.

Zen9 said:

Fri, 2009-07-31 12:25

Then perhaps it is possible for us to come to some agreement here?

However while I did indeed bring up history, I said you had missread it, not that you had brought it up.

Now let us ask the question, would you have permanent sitting regional Parliaments with seperately elected MRPs?

Or would you reuse MPs from an English Parliament having them sit for some time at a regional level?

Wessexman (not verified) said:

Sat, 2009-08-01 01:09

"Then perhaps it is possible for us to come to some agreement here?

However while I did indeed bring up history, I said you had missread it, not that you had brought it up. "

And I showed that you misread my apparent misreading. ;)

An appointed earl is not an hereditary earl who is not a constitutionally semi-autonomous region.

"Now let us ask the question, would you have permanent sitting regional Parliaments with seperately elected MRPs?

Or would you reuse MPs from an English Parliament having them sit for some time at a regional level? "

I'm not sure I'd have a parliament at the English or British level. I certainly would not at the British level. For England I'm unsure but it is, as has been mentioned in these debates, about 85% of Britain so you will still have the same centralised, corruption and unaccountable power but I couldn't give constitutional specifics. I might have an assembly or something. The key would giving them just enough power to help keep the regions in line where necessary, and do the few important things that need to be done at that level but preventing even gradual usurpation as happened even in the US's early history(as compared with the quite quick usurpation after the civil war.).

What I'd have at the regional level as well I'm unsure of, as I said I more for local and county decentralisation and regionalism is more for constitutional balance. I'd certainly have county assemblies. I'd probably repeat something similar, but with less power at the regional level.

England would the chief ceremonial level, and perhaps Britain for some things, though. The monarch would be for England(or perhaps Britain.), the established church would still be for England, the major international football team would still be England and so on.

The Cornish Democrat said:

Sat, 2009-07-04 08:39
Quebec? Not to mention the autonomy given to the native american populations in the north. This is regionalism is it not? 
 

Toque said:

Mon, 2009-07-06 09:51

Federalism.

The Cornish Democrat said:

Mon, 2009-07-06 12:12
Yes so are you saying that you'd like to see a federal England or just England, a unitary and centralised state, as part of a British federation.
If yes to the first then what would be your English regions? If yes to the second then do you really think a federal UK would last with one state as big as England?
Personally, leaving the Cornish issue aside, I'd be happy to see an EP inside a UK federation. I think such an arrangement would be very unstable and would soon break up leading to the independence of Wales and Scotland.
I tend to agree with Leopold Kohr on the nature of good federal arrangments. No one state can be much bigger than the rest of the states (and certainly not bigger than all the rest put together), and no one state government can have more power than the federal government.
Study any long lasting stable federations and you'll see this to be the case.

Toque said:

Fri, 2009-07-03 09:05

"Are you sure England Devolve isn't your cup of tea Gareth?"

Absolutely sure, thanks.  I've met some of them in Birmingham city centre before, and I'm afraid that Anglo-Saxon revivalism just isn't my thing, whether they're Mercians, or the Wessex regionalists where I live now.

Though I can see why an anglo-saxon heptarchy might be appealing to a Dumnonian.

 

The Cornish Democrat said:

Sat, 2009-07-04 08:37
'Anglo-saxon revivalism' is a convenient label for a detractor and perhaps appropriate for the Wessex and Mercian groups individually, but it's not such an honest description of Devolve.
Nevertheless the L.B.Priestley quote, for me, provides the same vibes as Devolve and some of their organic English regionalist friends, but still I really know nothing more about Priestly so I'm probably wrong.

Gareth if and when you obtain an English parliament what will be your next political project? Will you campaign with as much vigor for a decentralised/regionalised England? Power down to the people?

Hendre (not verified) said:

Thu, 2009-07-02 13:57

And it is this British/state nationalism which remains so dominant in the mindset of the London commentariat. Looking back to 1997 and the handover of Hong Kong it was a case of old colony, old empire, old story but the London media were there in force with their tongues out licking up some last dregs of empire (Look mum, we’re on the world stage ...). By comparison the coverage of devolution was very muted, not least because elective devolution was proof- positive that there were people out there who didn’t think London was the centre of the universe and the fount of all wisdom. The London commentariat are still trying to come to terms with this mystifying phenomenon! Never mind, with the advent of the mad, bad nats in Holyrood they can cheer themselves up by writing pompous/mawkish articles about the fate of the union and our place in the world.

Toque said:

Thu, 2009-07-02 13:13

I'm not sure that they can be termed 'English nationalists', Alex.

They are state nationalists, albeit a state in which England is - for them - very much the emotional, historical, constitutional, monarchical, religious and political heart (a mindset which is part of the problem for the Scots and Welsh). 

For me they're the ideological descendents of the Imperialists of Empire Days.  Those who saw Britain, and latterly Empire, as a way of projecting England (and Their cultural and political ideals) into the wider world.  But its the little Englanders who objected to the mindset of men like Cecil Rhodes who were the true English nationalists.

Cecil Rhodes, David Cameron, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown...They're British/State nationalists, imperialists or "Big Englanders" as far as I am concerned.  It's not nation that concerns them, it's statecraft and their own political power.

"I thought about patriotism. I wished I had been born early enough to have been called a Little Englander. It was a term of sneering abuse, but I should be delighted to accept it as a description of myself. That little sounds the right note of affection. It is little England I love. And I considered how much I disliked Big Englanders, whom I saw as red-faced, staring, loud-voiced fellows, wanting to go and boss everybody about all over the world, and being surprised and pained and saying ‘Bad show!’ if some blighters refused to fag for them. They are patriots to a man. I wish their patriotism began at home…" - L.B.Priestley

The Cornish Democrat said:

Fri, 2009-07-03 07:59
"I thought about patriotism. I wished I had been born early enough to have been called a Little Englander. It was a term of sneering abuse, but I should be delighted to accept it as a description of myself. That little sounds the right note of affection. It is little England I love. And I considered how much I disliked Big Englanders, whom I saw as red-faced, staring, loud-voiced fellows, wanting to go and boss everybody about all over the world, and being surprised and pained and saying ‘Bad show!’ if some blighters refused to fag for them. They are patriots to a man. I wish their patriotism began at home…" - L.B.Priestley
 
But surely if you take this to its logical conclusion the perfect anti-colonialist little Englander would be someone who loves his historic region above all; Wessex, Yorkshire, Cumbria, Kent.....
 
Are you sure England Devolve isn't your cup of tea Gareth?
 

The Cornish Democrat said:

Thu, 2009-07-02 15:10

You realise that it was this greater-england nationalism of the Anglo-Brits and Tory establishment that led to the reclassification of Cornwall from Duchy and British territory to simple English county. In doing so they've had to brush our constitution under the carpet and resist all expressions of Cornish national identity.

Who knows, if this Anglo-British steam roller had had more power, and,
had the conditions been right, perhaps Wales and even Scotland might
have suffered the same fate. The British/Great Britain/UK tags (smoke
screens) would simply have been dropped and today we'd all by citizens
of a state called England that stretched from Lands End to John o'
Groats.

Alex Buchan said:

Thu, 2009-07-02 14:31

I accept your point, I am thinking more of how they are perceived, especially in Scotland and perhaps in England. Thatcher would have been seen by many as someone who stood up for England, given that England and Britain during her time was seen as interchangeable. As I say, devolution has made this blurring of distinctions more difficult. The same could equally be said of Mundel. He may genuinely think he is a Scottish patriot furthering Scotland’s interests by having her on the world stage as a junior partner. This is, after all, the argument used by Labour, Tory and Lib Dem politicians in Scotland, that independence would consign Scotland to a backwater of insignificance. Drawing on your reference to projecting England into the wider world, one could say of these Tory state nationalists that see themselves as the decedents of Drake and Raleigh. They see no rupture between the pre and post union state, how could they when this is enshrined in the long tradition of Anglo-British exceptionalism. It is the ‘Bank of England’, it is ‘Queen Elisabeth II’, the debate around the speaker showed that parliament sees itself as the English Parliament continuing i.e. we all live in England continuing. It’s not due to a fault of their own that English people see England and Britain as the same, this is what they are supposed to think. My point is that this is central to what provides popular legitimacy for the British political system, it is not optional. David Cameron, as Prime Minister, can’t just bring in a Federal Constitution, even if he wanted to, without undermining this. He would have to take the risk that, lacking genuine popular affections, a non-exceptional Britain i.e. a Britain shorn of its mystique of greatness may hold no attraction for the different nationalities of these islands.

Alex Buchan

Toque said:

Thu, 2009-07-02 16:55

Perception is everything, and its true that the Anglo-British will, for the most part, be acting in the interests of England.  But they do now have to act differently in Scotland and Wales, change their language and points of reference; as you say "devolution queered the pitch".

Traditionally England has had far less cause for complaint against the Union due to England's dominance of that Union.  But there are signs that the English are restless.  Whether the Anglo-British will have to start 'putting out more flags' to be seen to be more English (as opposed to British), and start speaking of England (as opposed to Britain), are the interesting questions, and how they reconcile English nationalism with Unionism. 

We've already see tantalising signs, with the English flag having been spotted fluttering above Downing Street, and on David Cameron's bike, on Jacqui Smith's car, and during Boris Johnson's campaign.  The BBC too has started to get wise to the Britologists (see here and here).  Control language and you control thought.

The FIFA World Cup will be an interesting test of how far the Anglo-Brits will go in mirroring the populism of Englishness, and if in doing so they help to undermine the popular legitimacy of the British state (which relies far more heavily on English acceptance than it does on Scottish or Welsh).

The Britologists (but not the Anglo-British) will pull out all the stops to ensure that the 2012 Olympics are as passionately British as the World Cup support is passionately English.  This really is a very important battle for them, and at the moment it is one that they are losing.

If English MPs start producing websites as nationalistic as David Mundell's then I think it won't be long before we call time on the Union.

Alex Buchan said:

Thu, 2009-07-02 21:31

Thanks for the links. It is amazing, though, that we can count on one hand the number of times the BBC actually reflects the truth rather than playing a part in perpetuating the Anglo-British/Britologist line. It might be relied on in Iran, but the BBC is not a disinterested player back home.

I say Anglo-British/Britologist because I do not see them as greatly different. The Tories say ‘England’ in an almost unconscious at-homeness with the narrative of the golden thread of English history. Labour’s use of Britain when they mean England is, on the other hand, the verbal expression of their core belief in the union and their refusal to accept that the legislation they enacted has undermined that union [Labour in the past has also been just as Anglo-British as the Tories]. But both use obfuscation when it comes to talking about the true nature of the British State. Cameron is as guilty of this as Brown, although he is more skilful.

I don’t think the emergence of a popular English nationalism is welcomed by any of them. It is only pressure from below that has forced them to appear to be responsive. Your own efforts in this regard have been significant. I would be very wary of the Tories. Their natural inclination is to string things along in the hope that a return to Great British uniqueness/greatness wins out against a more normal European national identity politics in England. They are likely to try to co-opt English sporting allegiance and the St George’s Cross flag as new ornaments to add another element to this British uniqueness/greatness.

On the West Lothian question I think they will play it by ear, only acting if they sense there is a head of steam, and then only minimally. I think you’re wrong about the Olympics. The Anglo-Brits are just as keen for it to be a festival of Britishness as the Britologists. The Tories are even more committed to the continuation of greatness than Labour, for them Britain the monarchy and the army are all wrapped up together, at least that’s how it comes across.

I liked the quote from J.B.Priestley. People like him speak of a deeper truth that transcends place even though it is deeply rooted in place.

Alex Buchan

Toque said:

Thu, 2009-07-02 09:53

As David McCrone remarked, “In an important sense, Scotland’s politicians are all Nationalists”. 

They have to be.

Just take a look at David Mundell's website.  If an English politician plastered their website with the Cross of St George like that people would either think they were completely insane or that they were a member of the National Front and completely insane.

Alex Buchan said:

Thu, 2009-07-02 11:34

This is precisely my point. This kind of thing isn’t an aberration it flows directly from the exceptionalism that is the hallmark of the pre-modern British constitution. Nor does it pose problems for Scottish Unionists, instead it perpetuates the myth of greatness which lies at the heart of this ideology: that Britain is an overarching ‘Great Nation’. For English Tories there is no need to flaunt Englishness because Englishness is seen as indistinguishable from Britishness. This is also why they wouldn’t want to make this distinction, because having Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland only adds to England’s sense of greatness if no distinction is made between England and Britain. They are, in a disguised way, English Nationalist, and were widely seen to be until devolution queered the pitch.

Alex Buchan

Alex Buchan said:

Wed, 2009-07-01 22:35

Before their eclipse, which corresponds with before the emergence the anti-Thatcher consensus which defines modern Scottish politics, Scottish Tory MPs were very self-consciously Scottish in a very tartany or kitch way. You could say they were Anglo-British in a self-consciously Highland Country Dancing way. I think this suggests that the whole vocabulary of Anglo-Britishness performs a function of stressing exceptionalism. This exceptionalism can be seen as part of the ideological underpinnings of historic compromise between landed interests and the City that laid the foundation for the British State of today.

For that reason to move away from this ideology is a delicate mater because all the inconsistencies in the present system can be seen as resting on this exceptionalism. It comes in many guises: a thousand years of history, unwritten constitution, postage stamps with no country designated, the mother of parliaments, four national footfall teams in one nation, etc, etc. To move away from Anglo-Britishness is to move into unknown, and very unbritish, territory. This is the Tories dilemma, because it moves the debate onto the enemies ground as they would see it.

 

Toque said:

Wed, 2009-07-01 09:02

 "could be described as greater-england nationalists."

Prof Chris Bryant describes these people as the Anglo-British, people who "do not notice when an institution or person associated with England performs a British function. For example, it goes unremarked that the Bank of England is the central bank for all Britain, or that the Archbishop of Canterbury, the primate of the Church of England, crowns the sovereign of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Nor do countless references to ‘England’ which should have been to ‘Britain’ grate on the English ear. Walter Bagehot’s famous The English Constitution (1964 [1867]), for example, does not strike the Anglo-British as mistitled."

This is most Tories, even though Scottish and Welsh nationalists have forced them to change their language and terms of reference in Scotland and Wales they fall naturally back to Anglo-Britishness in England, even the Scottish ones like Michael Gove and Malclom Rifkind.

I'm what Bryant describes as a 'little Englander'.

britologywatch said:

Wed, 2009-07-01 10:40

Except, of course, the syndrome has been stood on its head under New Labour: now the establishment says 'Britain' when it means England. The Britologists have taken over from the Anglo-Brits. Whether the return of the Tories will see a return of Anglo-Britishness is perhaps a more interesting question than the nature and degree of their support for devolved government.

The Tories may not be as ideologically committed to the suppression of a distinct English identity as New Labour; however, in practice, they're going to be faced with the same problem of how to refer to English matters as English without letting the incongruity of the present dual-purpose nature of Parliament and government (UK-wide and England-only) become too glaringly obvious, which will further fuel the demands for an England-only parliament of some sort. However, they're in a double bind: if they replicate New Labour's Brit-speak and don't properly address the West Lothian and English Questions, or reform the Barnett Formula, the anger and mistrust of the English towards the present system will only increase.

Better to honestly confront the issue now, and come up with a political and constitutional solution that recognises that England and Britain are two distinct communities.

Toque said:

Wed, 2009-07-01 15:23

I get the point you are trying to make.

In one sense the Anglo-British and the Britologists are the same.  They are both State Nationalists.

The Anglo-British see English and British as much the same thing if they even think about it at all, whilst the Britology tautologists (people like Gordon Brown, Michael Wills and Jack Straw) are extremely conscious of the difference between England and Britain and so deliberately ignore England completely.

The Anglo-British might mistakenly say England when they mean Britain, whilst the Britologists will deliberately say Britain when the mean England (or use vague non-specific terms such as 'this country' or 'our country'). 

Cameron seems to have adopted most, if not all, of Blair's annoying phrases (things like "I honestly believe" and "y'know" and "I will say this") so it's entirely conceivable that he has taken onboard the Britishness doublethink of New Labour.

The Cornish Democrat said:

Tue, 2009-06-30 16:25
As to the Tories and English nationalism it really depends what you mean. In many ways they could be described as greater-england nationalists. England plus its strapped on Celtic bits.
 

The Cornish Democrat said:

Tue, 2009-06-30 16:19
First we had the creation of a 'Shadow Minister for Cornwall' in the person of Mark Prisk. Notice how Cameron describes Cornwall as a Duchy in the clip above, something recommended by the Kilbrandon report many years ago.

Then came the following in - Cameron Calls for Honesty on the State of the Union:

"It is in fact about identity. You see it all over Europe, all over the world. People are seeking a clear identity; often a more localised identity. Just look at the rise of Cornish nationalists. I think we shouldn't fight that; I think we should build on top of that to create an inclusive British identity."

Now we find the Tory leader claiming that the "Tories were ‘wrong’ on devolution" as well as mentioning the UKs 'native minorities' (to be defined).

What next?

In the Duchy Mebyon Kernow have beaten Labour in both the Unitary council and European elections. The new administration in the council is a coalition of Tories and Independents some of the latter easily describable as Independent Cornish nationalists.

The target for the Conservatives in Cornwall are the Liberal Democrat MPs (Labour are simply a non entity). Traditionally the Lib Dems have often played their Cornishness to the full commonly to the point of campaigning on nationalist issues. Are the Tories building up to a similar strategy? Will they offer us recognition as a Duchy plus a dash of devolved powers?

With a nod to both Cornish national identity and Cornish euroscepticism they could be onto a winner.

alex-buchan (not verified) said:

Tue, 2009-06-30 15:30

I agree with everything Britologywatch has said. Its not possible for the Tories to move away from the talismatic Sovereignty of the Crown in Parliament, which is what a federal constitution would require. Such a change could only ever only be brought about by a general crisis of legitimacy i.e. bottom up. It may seem as if we're close, but I don't believe we're anyway way near that yet.

britologywatch said:

Tue, 2009-06-30 11:36

Matt, you map out a rather unlikely scenario. The Tories won't ever agree to a federal UK unless their political survival were dependent on it, i.e. if they'd been obliterated in Scotland and Wales but could still form a government in England. As it is, they're clearly aiming to present themselves as the party of the (existing, 'post-unitary') Union, based on improved representation in Scotland and Wales, their alliance with the UUP in N. Ireland, and a large plurality in England.

Equally, I wouldn't write Labour off. Brown's 'Building Britain's Future' policy statement is a clear play for Labour's traditional working-class core vote IN ENGLAND: all the social policies and spending commitments relate to England only (education, health, policing (Wales there, too) and housing); and in respect to housing and jobs, he's clearly trying to gather in the disaffected Labour faithful that either have deserted to the BNP or are thinking of it. Labour's poll ratings appear to be picking up; so maybe they've got the tactic right - their core supporters want Labour to protect them economically and socially, if necessary through massive injections of taxpayers', and borrowed, cash.

As your figures indicate, Labour's share of the vote in England never dropped below 26%, even in the darkest days of Thatcher. Probably, the most likely set of shares of the vote we're going to see replicated this time is those of 1983, which would indicate a massive Tory landslide. But the electoral logic is different now: constituency boundaries gerrymandered in Labour's favour, and more tactical voting on the left, although maybe that factor will be less influential this time than in all three elections that brought New Labour into power. A smaller margin of victory for the Tories could reduce their parliamentary majority still further.

We may end up with a small Tory majority, which will really get interesting, as the Tories will be reliant on the support of their non-English MPs and allies for pushing through expenditure cuts in England; while these would trigger corresponding cuts in the devolved nations that the SNP could play on. In this context, nationalist tensions could increase to a point where they threatened a break-up of the Union, for instance through a referendum vote in favour of Scottish independence (poll figures today showed 54% ONLY in favour of staying in the Union, and 38% in favour of independence: only takes an 8% swing!).

So the Tories might do well to heed the warnings and work towards the establishment of a federal UK, if they want to avoid its eventual complete break-up. But they won't. 

Toque said:

Tue, 2009-06-30 10:47

Personally I think you missed the most interesting aspect of what David Melling's vision.  It's Nairn but without the 'endism'.

Essentially he's saying that the nations should be sovereign but that sovereignty should be used to affirm the union rather than separate.

The interesting piece is this:

"Today, I believe that the home nations should have their political sovereignty properly recognised; but I want these same sovereign nations to recommit themselves to the British state, and I believe that a new and fuller British nationalism will then flourish...[...]..."all unionists in Wales should be patriotic Welsh nationalists".

In other words Nationalism does not mean separatism; nationalism is compatible with Unionism because the popular sovereignty that is nationalism is also the only sound basis for a multi-national union.

Frankly I couldn't give two hoots about what happens to the Conservative or Labour parties, they are merely players.

Hendre (not verified) said:

Tue, 2009-06-30 09:43

It’s good to see the devolutionist wing of the Welsh Conservatives putting forward some new thinking on the settlement but I’m afraid David Melding’s views are unlikely to be endorsed by a majority of Welsh Conservatives (probably not even a majority in the Welsh Assembly group) let alone be taken seriously by the party hierarchy. The Conservatives have yet to commit to holding a referendum on the provisions of 2006 Government of Wales Act if requested by the Welsh Assembly – and Cheryl Gillan has been quizzed on this matter on a number of occasions.

Current polling indicates a Tory surge not a nationalist surge in Wales at the next Westminster election so Cameron can feel pretty comfortable with a form of paternal unionism. With the connivance of Welsh devo-sceptic Tories he’ll be looking to weaken the Welsh devolution settlement not strengthen it.

Whatever the Tories decide to do the Welsh Labour Party is up a creek without a paddle at the moment.

Not logged in (not verified) said:

Mon, 2009-06-29 18:18

They may not be English Nationalist ideologically (depending on where you get your definition from :-), but
"English" in Parliament - certainly. The % of Conservative Westminster MPs representing England (rather than any other area of the UK) has been 95% or more for 30 years unless we pick statistical nits.

Drop the "Nationalist" from my comment, and from Labour's point of view they are essentially facing PC as an all-Welsh party, SNP as an all-Scottish party, and the Tories as an all-English party.

Wyrdtimes said:

Mon, 2009-06-29 17:41

Anyone describing the Conservative and Unionist Party as English Nationalists is an challenged in the thinking department. There are few politicians that are more anti English than Cameron and the Eton mafia. They are Unionist through and through.

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