RUSSIA HAS WON! Is it just me or is everyone else being stupid? I think Russia has just won the war and before long there will be Russian troops in Iraq and Russian oil contracts. Then the US will be asked to leave and there will be nothing they can do to stop Russia winning (not just the Iraq war but also the cold war...everything) in alliance with Al Sistani and Iran. HOW IT HAPPENED. I think the US saw Iraq as a 'vacant lot' before the invasion, from which they could establish a new middle eastern base (and hence protect their oil supplies), helping to lessen dependence on the Saudis (and Israel) and challenge Iran's ambitions to become a nuclear power. But they forgot two things: 1. Although they wanted to be rid of Saddam, the Iraqis did not want US occupation (there has been much discussion of this). 2. The Iranian nuclear programme was never a "rogue" nuclear programme but a Russian-backed one (there has been no discussion of this). I believe (and predicted) that Al Sistani and Putin made a deal before the war that once the Shias had won the elections they would invite the Russians in and award the oil contracts to them (and of course to Europe because they want Europe allied with them, isolating the US). This allowed Al Sistani to say before the invasion that he would back the US until the day Saddam fell and oppose them after - he could only do this (just like Castro) if he had an alliance with Moscow. The final piece of the Moscow-Shia strategy is in place with Putin's (entirely predictable) refusal this week to stop building a new nuclear reactor in Iran. THE STUPIDITY OF BUSH AND BLAIR. Bush has been a fool but Blair even more so because he not only backed the invasion but has also (unwittingly) helped Putin acheive everything he needs. For example: 1. Blair pushed France into the arms of Russia by his failed diplomacy at the UN (contrary to some reports Chirac did not want to do this but was given no other option); 2. Blair neutered the weapons inspectors by sending them to Iraq on false pretences (i.e. a bogus mission that falsely implied war could be avoided by disarmament). This removed any hope (admittedly limited) that the weapons inspectors could tackle the Iranian/Russian nuclear programme. 3. Blair argued for 'compromises' such as the US statement that they would withdraw if asked to do so by the new govt, and the invitations to other countries to help with security (which means they cannot oppose Russian troops entering Iraq). And lots of other things...e.g. the Israel-Palestine peace deal helps them too because it means Israel cannot bomb the reactor. SOME THINGS TO DISCUSS So maybe we can have some discussion not about the US but about Russia...What do people think - am I right? If so, Bush and Blair did not just walk into a trap they made a trap, then walked into it and shot themselves twice in the foot before doing so...Is this the most stupid thing any world leaders have ever done to damage their own national interests? Some other questions: 1. Although clearly bad for the US, what does this mean for Iraq and for the world? Good for Iraqi security (and maybe democracy) I suspect - the extremists will be isolated with no US enemy and Al Sistani will be a hero. But what about human rights, and relationships across the middle east? 2. What about Europe? The French will get oil contracts of course but what about Britain? I suspect we will be given some because Putin and Al Sistani are clever men and want Europe on their side, but what will Blair decide to do? Maybe he has no choice - he has already signed for all our future gas supplies to Russia. 3. What about nukes? Will Russia start to help the Iraqis rebuild their nuclear programme (not immediately, but sometime in the future)? Will the US start to build reactors at home to (try to) gain more energy security? 4. What about the US? If it has no bases in the middle east, is it still a superpower? Is there someway it can try to retain the bases militarily that I have missed? (surrounded by a hostile govt and people, attacks from terrorists and with no allies...). 5. What about the media and politicians? If I am right this was all predictable before the war but yet nobody has even speculated that it might be true. Is this not a major failing? And many other questions... Helen (in Derbyshire, England)