Michigan pullout underscores bleak electoral college picture for McCain

John McCain's decision on Wednesday to pull out of Michigan--a state which Democrat John Kerry edged with a margin of just over 3 percentage points in 2004 and was highly sought after by GOP strategists in the build-up to this year's election cycle--illustrates the increasingly bleak electoral college picture facing the Republican presidential nominee with just 31 days of campaigning left until polling day. Of the thirteen competitive states widely identified prior to this year's election as being pivotal to either candidate's hopes of success--Michigan, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin--Barack Obama currently holds strong leads in 6 and is polling ahead but within the margin of error in another 5; McCain, in contrast, leads Obama by no more than 2 percentage points in both Indiana and Missouri.

While the Republican exodus in the Wolverine state will invariably free up resources and staff for use in more tightly fought races in North Carolina and nearby Ohio, failure to transform these assets into tangible and substantive strategic gains within the coming weeks would mean that, as it currently stands, McCain faces the prospect of emerging from the aforementioned battleground states with a paltry 22 electoral votes out of a possible 168--a defeat so comprehensive that it would all but guarantee a Democratic victory.

The reaction to McCain's announcement amongst local operatives, both Democrat and within his own party, has so far proven mixed: concerned about the morale amongst advocates still campaigning on the Republican's behalf, Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson noted that, "when the general leaves the battle field when the fight's still going it creates a lot of chaos." The decision also drew similar criticism from the chairman of the state party, Saul Anuzis. Fearing that McCain's departure would only serve as a catalyst for third party surrogates to fill the void with an array of attack ads, Democratic spokesman Lt. Governor John D. Cherry was more measured in his response, saying that, "I think the announcement you're reading is an invitation for independent groups to come in and do that sort of thing."

The Boston Globe and Huffington Post, meanwhile, are speculating that McCain's decision may signal the first of several pullouts, given that the Republican faces similarly sizeable polling deficits in states with far more costly media markets, such as Pennsylvania.