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# An asymmetrical drone war
- URL: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/asymmetrical-drone-war/
- Published: 2010-08-19T22:08:44.000Z
- Updated: 2019-02-14T22:09:30.000Z
- Description: The United States and Israel see the next generation of armed drones as a potent reinforcement of their military capacity against insurgents and rogue states. But Iran and Hizbollah too are in the race.
- Author: Paul Rogers
- Tags: Conflict & security, #Migrated, Middle East & North Africa, Politics & activism, globalisation, Democracy and government, Iran, conflict, International politics, global security, Lebanon, #en, #Import 2026-04-09 17:02

An upsurge in paramilitary violence highlights the continuing difficulties faced by states in controlling insurgent movements. The incidents stretch from familiar centres of conflict ([Baghdad](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/17/AR2010081700567.html?hpid=sec-world&ref=opendemocracy.net) and [Yemen](http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE67I17220100819?ref=opendemocracy.net)), to unexpected locations ([Kampala](http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gALjCfhatQbqJBxn-5HqwejhvSaw?ref=opendemocracy.net)), to trade-routes (the attack on the *M. Star* [super-tanker](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/08/20108683953783853.html?ref=opendemocracy.net)). This comes, moreover, at a time when the United States is facing serious problems in Afghanistan and committed to a progressive withdrawal in Iraq - both situations which are overshadowed by the domestic electoral timetable in which 2010 (mid-term) and 2012 (presidential) elections approach (see "[Al-Qaida's business jihad](http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/al-qaida%E2%80%99s-business-jihad)", 12 August 2010).

An important part of Washington’s calculations is that domestic economic constraints and popular sentiment make new or upgraded military involvements abroad increasingly tough choices politically - even at a time of gigantic military budgets and an inexhaustible appetite to use them (see "[The Pentagon's politics of war](http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/the-wages-of-war)", 21 May 2009). One result of this combination of political caution (especially after the experience of [Afghanistan](http://www.gallup.com/poll/141716/New-High-Call-Afghanistan-War-Mistake.aspx?ref=opendemocracy.net) and [Iraq](http://www.gallup.com/poll/141773/Americans-Divided-Iraq-War-Going.aspx?ref=opendemocracy.net)) and continuing military power is the escalating search for ways to [wage](http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/08/us%5Fpredator%5Fstrike%5Fk%5F4.php?ref=opendemocracy.net) “war by remote control” (see "[America's new-old military thinking](../../article/america-s-new-old-military-thinking)", 23 July 2009).

This can involve special-forces units working behind the scenes, and - as the technologies improve - a marked increase in the use of armed-drones. The overall result is a shift towards “war in the shadows”, where the United States conducts operations in a [swathe](http://www.mapsofworld.com/asia-political-map.htm?ref=opendemocracy.net) of countries across “[greater west Asia](www.opendemocracy.net/globalization/westasia%5Fcrisis%5F3833.jsp)” and north and east Africa (see Scott Shane, Mark Mazzetti & Robert F. Worth, “[Secret Assault on Terrorism Widens on Two Continents](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/15/world/15shadowwar.html?ref=opendemocracy.net)”, *New York Times*, 14 August 2010).

**The next generation**

The development of advanced drones is one of the most active areas of current military research and development, with added emphasis now being given to stealth-drones that can fly undetected over countries with relatively advanced air-defences. A case in point is the [RQ-170](http://www.af.mil/information/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=16001&ref=opendemocracy.net), a system currently deployed in a reconnaissance rather than an armed form, and now used in Afghanistan. This drone, a current report in a US defence journal suggests, might even be able to operate unobserved across both the Iranian and Pakistani borders with Afghanistan (see in the US defence journal (see David Fulghum, “[UAVs Dominate Surveilance and Targeting](http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story%5Fchannel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/asd/2010/08/10/05.xml&headline=UAVs%20Dominate%20Surveillance%20And%20Targeting&ref=opendemocracy.net)", *Aviation Week*, 10 August 2010).

This development of such stealth-drones opens a new phase in automated warfare. The Pentagon and CIA have used armed-drones [against](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/7663661/American-drones-deployed-to-target-Yemeni-terrorist.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) paramilitary groups in a number of countries - usually ones where the local state (and the non-state movements based there) lack air-defences, or where (as in [Pakistan](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-10648909?ref=opendemocracy.net)) the government in the target-country gives its tacit approval to the attacks. Now, the aim is to apply the technologies developed in the F-117A Nighthawk and the B-2 stealth-bomber to drones, thus enabling the ability to fly over countries such as Iran - with impunity, and with minimal fear of interception (see "[Drone wars](http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/drone-wars)", 16 April 2009).

In parallel, the Pentagon's [Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency](http://www.darpa.mil/?ref=opendemocracy.net) (Darpa) is planning a new generation of fast and heavy-armed drones. A current project is to adapt the Fairchild A-10 - among the world's most powerful close-air-support planes - for autonomous operations. The Warthog, as it is called, is [equipped](http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/man/uswpns/air/attack/a10.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) with a remarkable range of weapons - including a 30-mm gun, laser-guided rockets, AGM-56E Maverick missiles and GPS-guided 125 kg bombs (see Graham Warwick, “[Unmanned, and Close](http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&newspaperUserId=27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7&plckPostId=Blog%3A27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post%3A10c5330d-451c-437d-93d2-cc9a057820fb&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&ref=opendemocracy.net)”, *Aviation Week*, 9 August 2010).

This “flying laboratory” is designed to advance the next generation of armed-drones, most prominently the MQ-X. The currently most powerful United States armed-drone, the [MQ-9 Reaper](http://defense-update.com/products/p/predatorB.htm?ref=opendemocracy.net), is already able both to carry more weapons and to “loiter” far longer than manned aircraft; but the MQ-9 - planned for deployment around 2020 - would be even more sophisticated in combining the intense firepower and high subsonic speed of the A-10 with an endurance of up to eighteen hours.

The United States is the leader in the whole field of armed drones. Its ally Israel is close behind. The [Israel Defence Forces](http://dover.idf.il/IDF/English/?ref=opendemocracy.net) (IDF) possesses a wide array of systems, some developed in association with the Pentagon. Israel has used drones extensively for reconnaissance and in armed attacks in [Lebanon](http://www.opendemocracy.net/conflict/lebanon%5Fwar%5F3992.jsp) and [Gaza](http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/gaza-the-war-after-the-war); it is also reported to operate drones over Iran.

In addition, Israel’s activities extend to the use of long-range drones to detect and survey shipping down the Red Sea, in the search for vessels presumed to be carrying armaments for [Hizbollah](http://www.cfr.org/publication/9155/hezbollah%5Faka%5Fhizbollah%5Fhizbullah.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) or Hamas. An unconfirmed report claims that Israel used reconnaissance- and armed-drones in a raid against two convoys of trucks in Sudan that it believes were transporting Iranian-built Fajr-5 [missiles](http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/mrl-iran.htm?ref=opendemocracy.net) to Egypt on their way to Hizbollah (see "[Israel used unmanned drones to attack Sudan convoys](http://www.haaretz.com/news/report-israel-used-unmanned-drones-to-attack-sudan-convoys-1.273099?ref=opendemocracy.net)", *Ha'aretz*, 29 March 2009).

Israel sees drones as an essential component of its broadly-based defence posture in an era when paramilitary groups [operate](http://www.meforum.org/806/hezbollahs-strategic-threat-to-israel?ref=opendemocracy.net) near its borders, and when [missile-building](http://csis.org/publication/irans-military-forces-and-warfighting-capabilities?ref=opendemocracy.net) states such as Iran also threaten. In both cases, it sees the new weapons as helping to redress an imbalance in the state's defences in [face](http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415449106/?ref=opendemocracy.net) of existing “asymmetric-warfare” capabilities (see "[Israel's security trap](http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/israel%E2%80%99s-security-trap)", 5 August 2010).

**The new balance**

The United States and Israel are leaders in a huge expansion in drone technology, though others - several western European states, Russia and China - are also involved. But there is a sting in the tail of such powerful states: namely, that drone technology is amenable to proliferation, not least as many of the components can be bought “off-the-shelf” and have perfectly legitimate non-military functions (see "[Hizbollah's warning-flight](http://www.opendemocracy.net/conflict/article%5F2481.jsp)", 4 May 2005).

Hizbollah has, since 2004 at latest, operated the Mirsad-1 reconnaissance-drone (see "[Hezbollah drone flies over Israel](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle%5Feast/3990773.stm?ref=opendemocracy.net)", *BBC News*, 7 November 2004). This almost certainly Iran-made system has successfully been [flown](http://www.haaretz.com/news/hezbollah-drone-brought-down-over-galilee-held-30-kg-of-explosives-1.195115?ref=opendemocracy.net) over Israeli cities, much to the annoyance of the Israeli military (see Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, "[The Hizbollah project: last war, next war](http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/the-hizbollah-project-last-war-next-war)", 13 August 2009).

The Mirsad-1 is an early-generation system of limited range that has to be launched close to Israel. Of far more significance is that Iran is reported ready to [display](http://www.payvand.com/news/10/aug/1172.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) a long-range drone - the *Karar* \- at an arms demonstration on 22 August 2010 (see “[Iran To Unveil Array of Weapons Next Week](http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4748113&c=MID&s=LAN&ref=opendemocracy.net)”, AFP/ *Defense Week*, 17 August 2010). The *Karar* is likely to have been produced with the specific intention of flying reconnaissance-missions over countries as distant as Israel.

The *Karar* may well be unarmed and have limited intelligence capabilities, but its very existence will reverberate. A comparison may be made to the beginning of the [war](http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB39/?ref=opendemocracy.net) against Iraq on 16 January 1991, when the United States-led coalition launched a massive air-assault in the attempt to force Saddam Hussein’s forces out of Kuwait. On the second night, [Iraq’s](http://www.iraqwatch.org/profiles/missile.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) Scud-missiles [hit](http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/18/newsid%5F4588000/4588486.stm?ref=opendemocracy.net) Israel. The damage was limited, the casualties light, but the psychological impact - in Israel and among western forces generally - was massive; the coalition expended huge resources in ensuing weeks in a [series](http://www.specialoperations.com/Army/Delta%5FForce/scuds.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) of (largely fruitless) “Scud hunts”.

If the Iranians have been able to [develop](http://www.dailytech.com/Iran+Developing+Unmanned+Drone+Technology+US+Officials+Concerned/article18067.htm?ref=opendemocracy.net) a long-range drone, then it is more than likely that they will attempt to launch reconnaissance drone-sorties against Israeli territory - at a time of their own choosing. The military effect will be minimal but the political impact will be very great. The Pentagon, the IDF and many western states see drones as a valued reinforcement of their military technology; but their adversaries too are in the race. The role of drones in asymmetric warfare - or even just asymmetric psychological warfare - may come much sooner than many expect.