The use of sticks with no carrots by Washington has been the reality of the Inter-American agenda over the past four years. However, the record of United States’ failures in the region is unprecedented. Why add a new source of controversy in the Americas? Why does Washington become so obsessed in making Latin America more attractive to Chinese projection of power?
An American President in the IDB is a recipe for frictions and frustrations. The United States has total control of its Import-Export Bank and the US International Development Finance Corporation, together with the largest project preparation facilities operating in Latin American and the Caribbean through the US Trade and Development Agency.
The relative lack of success of US commercial and investment attraction in the region over the last decade has nothing to do with the IDB or China: it reflects that something is happening with the US business community and Washington’s emphasis on involving the military in domestic public order throughout Latin America and the Caribbean.
Finally, a political argument. According to the voting rules of the IDB the US share is 30%. Latin American and the Caribbean have 50%; Canada, 4%; and non-regional members (mostly European plus Japan, among others), 16%. Washington may believe that it has already the absolute majority of the votes for his candidate. But surprises may happen. With 25% of the vote there can be no quorum to deliberate: a very strong but highly probable posture that demands a coalition of countries to reach that number.
Take into consideration that due to its 30% voting share Washington can unilaterally affect the quorum and no one has ever said that the usage of this political option is a demonstration of hostility. For the first time several Latin American governments, of different political persuasion, are willing to go that far.
With 50% of the votes several countries can call for a new election day: a broader coalition should be mobilized and reacch that percentage. This is something very difficult to achieve but US traditional allies such as Canada and many European countries may believe it is time to show its uneasiness with the White House. Is President Trump willing to gamble with one or the other possibility? There is still time to arrange for a new date for electing the IDB president.
The best alternative for the Americas now is to postpone the election of the President of the IDB for early 2021.Three crucial elements are required. First, Latin American leaders should make the call. It is now or never. Second, American personalities from both the democratic and republican party should support such a demand from the region. Third, the administration must realize it is better to negotiate instead of impose a candidate for the bank. These three factors are reasonable, not adventurous.
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