Donald Trump at a rally against the Iran Nuclear Deal on the West Lawn of the US Capitol in Washington, DC on Wednesday, September 9, 2015. Picture by Ron Sachs/DPA/PA Images. All rights reserved.President
Trump’s belligerent approach in muddying the water with Iran is yet
another ploy to remain true to populist promises he made to right
wing audiences – at home and abroad - in the course of his 2016
campaign for the White House.
However,
despite all his rhetoric, what remains obscure at the end of the day
is what is to be gained by ‘decertification of the nuclear
agreement’ and how such a move is likely to chastise Iran while
enhancing US or western
interests?
The
truth of the matter is that since the ratification of the nuclear
deal in July 2015, and
despite
having complied with all its obligations, Iran
has
continued to suffer from persistent US obstructions that have
essentially prevented international banking and financial
institutions from actively participating in what is generally
believed to be the world’s largest foreign investment market.
Hence, all ‘antics’ aside, the only real difference in US
position vis-à-vis Iran is that while the Obama administration made
promises that it did not keep, president
Trump intends on passing the buck to Congress so that it can then
re-impose the kind of robust measures, which the Treasury Department
under his predecessors had never removed.
What
is even more unclear is how exactly wiil
the
pursuit of such gratuitous belligerency, which could potentially
result in the cancellation of the nuclear agreement, benefit the US,
its allies and the cause of non-proliferation at a time when all
parties are engaged in a serious crisis over international security
with North Korea. Trump’s message is clearly in contradiction with
positions enunciated by all senior military officials as well as
his key cabinet members who have spoken on the record about the need
to honor the commitments which the US has made in conjunction
with Russia, China, France, Britain, and Germany to the nuclear
agreement that has also been endorsed by the UN Security Council.
Moreover,
Trump’s actions in this regard will not even satisfy regional
players such as Israel or Saudi Arabia who see this empty and
inconsequential gesture on the part of the US President as a ploy for
not living up to the kind of expectations he had created in advance
of his election. In the case of Israel, such a ploy that is incapable
of making any material difference
to
Iran’s overall strategic disposition in the region in
the short to mid-term,
is hardly any compensation for not moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem
or openly validating Israeli settlement policies in the occupied
territories. For Saudi Arabia, Trump’s ‘bad mouthing’ of the
Iranian regime in the absence of any direct military action against
Iranian targets, falls way short of the kind of US support that would
help resurrect their fortunes from the downward spiral of their
bankrupt policies on Yemen and Qatar, while Iran consolidates its
position in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
There
is no question that Trump’s exacerbation of a situation that
hinders the flow of capital and investments needed for economic
reconstruction into Iran will seriously affect the lives of millions
of ordinary Iranians who had hoped that on the back of the nuclear
agreement, the road would be paved for further agreements with the
West that would assist Iran’s complete rehabilitation and
reintegration into the world community.
Sadly
the Iranian people’s overwhelming support for the re-election of
Hassan Rouhani in the recent presidential election in face of
hardline elements bent on frustrating his moderate and progressive
agenda, is being rewarded by policies and pronouncements that
enhances the position of only those who want to emulate the North
Korean model in dealing with the US.
In
the final analysis, any move to dismantle the nuclear deal will not
have the support of world public opinion or that of any of the other
major signatories to that agreement. It will only relinquish the
moral
high
ground to Iran, leaving the US as the isolated party.
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