Nick Clegg, the
outgoing leader of the Liberal Democrats, argued in his resignation letter
that ‘the history books will judge our party kindly for the service we sought
to provide to the nation at a time of great economic difficulty and for the
policies and values which we brought to bear on government – opportunity,
fairness and liberty…’ This sentiment was clearly rejected by the electorate as
the Lib Dems suffered a swing against them of 15.2%, amounting to a loss of 49
of their 57 seats.
The general explanation for this
demolition is convincing. The party abandoned its traditional
supporters – students, recent graduates and
middle class professionals – in joining the Tory-led coalition
government. This explanation leads to a deeper analysis: there is no space for
the Lib Dems’ brand of centrism in British politics. And worryingly for whomever
the party chooses to be Clegg’s successor, the nature of the new minor parties
demonstrate there is little space for the Lib Dems in British politics at all.
No room in the centre
The structure of
the contemporary British party system is a product of the major parties’
ideological convergence. This began in the 1970s as neoliberalism began to
weaken the power of the organised working classes. Thatcher’s economic
restructuring towards a services-based economy led to significant unemployment
for the working class. In turn, cutting key elements of the welfare state, such
as the access to public housing, led to the division of the working class. These
reforms split the working class as the more aspirational and socially mobile
joined the ranks of the lower middle class.
However,
neoliberal reforms created substantial long-term economic insecurity and
unemployment for unskilled and lower educated members of the working class. In
their account of UKIP’s rise, Revolt on the Right, Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin provide compelling analysis of
the working class’s decline. They show that between the election of Harold
Wilson’s Labour government in 1964 and Tony Blair’s “New Labour” in 1997,
blue-collar voters declined from 50% to 30%, trade union membership fell from
40% to 21%, and the number of people living in public housing dropped from 30%
to 14%.
Similar
indicators reveal the expansion of the middle class in the same period. Home ownership
rose from under 50% to over 70%, the completion rate of tertiary education from
5% to 20%, and those who worked in middle class jobs increased from 30% to over
50%. The sheer size of the middle class ensured it had the sole power to
determine electoral outcomes. Instead of representing partisan social
divisions, the major parties attempted to appeal to “mass” interests in
society. This led to the preponderance of middle class economic and social
liberalism in party agendas.
Using data from
the Comparative Manifesto Project, the graph
below confirms Tony Blair’s influence over Labour policy as the party converged
quite rapidly on the centre ground in the late 1990s and early 2000s. In this
way the British party system came to be structured almost exclusively around
middle class values.
Post-WWII
Major Party Ideological Trends
Source: The Manifesto Data Collection, Comparative Manifesto Project 2013.
Despite this limited
policy space, the Lib Dems grew in the early 2000s by taking progressive stands
to the left of Labour on issues that did concern the middle class. They
targeted Labour’s policies on tuition fees, climate change and the Iraq War.
This saw the party gain widespread support among students and middle class
progressives, helping the party to expand in urban areas and develop out of its
base in south-west England.
But, as was acknowledged by former leader
David Steel, the Lib Dems’ popularity was enhanced by its reputation
as a party that could provide opposition to the political establishment. In
this way the Lib Dems developed a niche in British political space by avoiding
centrism at all costs and effectively understanding its base.
In reality, the
Liberal Democrats’ push to the centre in order to provide ‘responsible governance’
and ‘make the Coalition work’ served to demonstrate that there is no space in
British politics for a small, centrist, socially liberal but economically
neoliberal political party.
The rise of the minor parties
So where do the
Lib Dems go now? With the political establishment entrenched for now, the results
of the 2015 general election are a clear indication that the space for
anti-establishment parties is on the right and the left, not the centre.
The SNP, UKIP and
the Green Party, while clearly from different points on the spectrum, together
commanded just short of six and a half million votes. For UKIP and the Green
Party this vote share only translated into one seat each, yet its gain in votes
amidst the Lib Dems’ collapse does represent the latent anti-establishment
support in England.
The remarkable
rise of the SNP is a good starting point. While Labour was undoubtedly the
biggest loser in Scotland, the Lib Dems also suffered an effective wipeout as
they held just one of their eleven seats.
This result
served as a clear message that Labour and the Lib Dems were at odds with the
values and interests of the Scottish people. The SNP’s campaign portrayed the
Tories, Labour and Lib Dems as all in cahoots, pointing to their alliance under
the Better Together banner. While the SNP’s manifesto indicates a left-wing
ideology, its anti-establishment narrative rests on the Scottish people as being
ignored and abandoned by Westminster.
Importantly, the
Lib Dems’ showing in Scotland indicated Scottish supporters of the party had
changed their notion of opposition. In the past, Scottish Lib Dem voters were
voting against the Labour party. In voting against the Lib Dems and for
Scottish nationalism they found a new, more radical form of
anti-establishment, that opposed Westminster rule entirely.
South of the
Scottish border, the Lib Dems did not lose many voters directly to UKIP. UKIP’s
radical right attack on the political establishment clearly comes from a
different base to the Lib Dems. But what the Lib Dems have lost to UKIP is
their status in England. UKIP more than doubled the Lib Dem vote. While they
only won one seat in the process, UKIP did come second in 120 seats,
predominantly in the North and East. Only Labour and the Tories finished with
more second place results. In comparison the Lib Dems managed just 63 second
place finishes.
While it lacks
the seats to show this status, UKIP can now claim to be the third party of
English politics and can campaign in many of these seats as the only viable
alternative to the Tory/Labour establishment. Ford and Goodwin show UKIP has
given voice to many voters who were abandoned under the middle class-centric
party system. There is little room for Lib Dems to contend here.
Flickr/samsaundersleeds. Some rights reserved.
It is the Green
Party that has attracted many of the Lib Dem voters in England. While the Green
Party finished with just one seat and with less total votes than the Lib Dems,
they have emerged in areas that show there is latent support for the left.
Running on a
clear anti-austerity agenda, the Green Party retained Caroline Lucas’ seat in
Brighton, while finishing second in four seats: Manchester Gorton, Sheffield
Central, Liverpool Riverside and Bristol West. The first three seats indicate a
left-wing threat in working class Labour areas, but it is the latter that
should be of most concern to the Lib Dems. In Bristol West the Green Party
enjoyed a 23% swing to finish behind Labour and ahead of the Lib Dem incumbent,
Stephen Williams.
This result typified the incursions the Green
Party has made in south-west England, the Lib Dems’ traditional
base. Considered alongside the Green Party’s success in urban areas in the
North and in London, this indicates the party’s growing support stems from
similar groups who had formerly backed the Lib Dems in the early 2000s. The Green
Party’s results in both Lib Dem and Labour heartlands show it has the potential
to go much further than the Lib Dems ever did. In the current electoral
climate, a party that attacks the establishment from the left has more space to
grow than by attempting to temper it from the centre.
The major parties
that comprise the political establishment face major hurdles. For David
Cameron’s majority government, the pending referendum on Britain’s place on the
EU will likely see internal tensions spill into the public domain. Equally, the
Labour party appears torn on whether to return to Blairism. This will present
anti-establishment parties with plenty of opportunity, as previously silent
voter blocks vocalise their disdain for the mainstream. There does not appear
to be any space for the centrist Lib Dems in this new dynamic.
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